Guild Wars 2

I just opened 10 black lion chests. Here were my results:

Chest 1:
Revive Orb
Strength Booster
Teleport to Friend

Chest 2:
Black Lion Ticket Scrap
Trading Post Express
Merchant Express

Chest 3:
Revive Orb
Experience Booster
Speed Booster

Chest 4:
Gathering Booster
Heroic Booster
Strength Booster

Chest 5:
Medium Crafting Bag
Merchant Express
Heroic Booster

Chest 6:
Trading Post Express
Black Lion Ticket Scrap
Speed Booster

Chest 7:
Random Blue Mini
Unidentified Dye
Teleport to Friend

Chest 8:
Teleport to Friend
Experience Booster
Random Blue Mini

Chest 9:
Rejuvenating Booster
Experience Booster
Revive Orb

Chest 10:
Rejuvenating Booster
Tomb of Knowledge
Merchant Express

i think the problem is you opened 10 chests. that is not a large enough sample size to have any conclusive results.

Black Lion Keys are pretty simple.

Don’t buy them unless you are willing to lose every single time.

You could buy hundreds of them and not get anything good. That’s how Anet makes money, they prey upon the weakness of gambling addiction.

think of them as lottery tickets…

Katta Castellum.3957:

i think the problem is you opened 10 chests. that is not a large enough sample size to have any conclusive results.

Which may be true I agree, but 10 keys is like 12 dollars… I’d at least expect one rare item.

Neural.1824:

Black Lion Keys are pretty simple.

Don’t buy them unless you are willing to lose every single time.

You could buy hundreds of them and not get anything good. That’s how Anet makes money, they prey upon the weakness of gambling addiction.

Seems like a pretty stupid and advantageous method.

How does encouraging players to use gems to buy keys to get cool stuff work if you don’t get anything cool.

Hell, if I would have at least gotten 1-2 cool items from the 30 items that I got, I’d go ahead and buy more keys in the future and use more of my money to buy gems. That’s a pretty smart idea right?

But no, I guess giving people nothing cool and exciting and just taking their gems and making them never want to buy keys again is a better idea, lol.

if they don’t seem worth it to you don’t buy them. i agree. they are lackluster. i liked them back when i could get 5 keys for 30-40g(a long time ago). they just aren’t worth it now. i like marvel heroes boxes. they give you a random hero or costume and boosters and feel worth the money spent. i really wish arenanet would add incentive to these boxes. they feel really expensive for what is in them. they aren’t for me though. they are for gamblers. idk where the allure for gamblers comes from though in those boxes. the odds are terrible and the high-end rewards aren’t a great return on the gambling addiction endorphins.

Why do people buy lottery tickets or put money in slot machines? It’s the same principle. Variable reinforcement schedules are very powerful when shaping behaviors.

It prays on hopes and dreams, because there’s always a chance.

If something were impossible, people wouldn’t do it. It’s the hope of that tiny chance that causes ruin.

It’s the nature of gambling, because people think only others are subject to the laws of probability. It’s also unfortunately, extremely profitable, for the one that is the house.

Compared to the cost of buying a game, everything in the gem store is crazy bad value for money. I would happily spend money regularly every month on items but the value is so low that I don’t spend a penny.

ArchonWing.9480:

It prays on hopes and dreams, because there’s always a chance.

If something were impossible, people wouldn’t do it. It’s the hope of that tiny chance that causes ruin.

It’s the nature of gambling, because people think only others are subject to the laws of probability. It’s also unfortunately, extremely profitable, for the one that is the house.

Yeah well I don’t have the time or money to spend on hopes or dreams.

A much better system would be to encourage players to continue to buy keys, which would be perhaps getting something cool or rare every 10 chests or whatever, at least that reinforces people to buy keys still. As I already saw in this thread, and in other threads, some people refuse to buy anymore ever again, including myself. So how does that make any money, or make any sense even. If you want people to buy your stuff and if you want to make money, give people a reason to buy it. I have zero reason to buy another key ever again.

If I would have gotten perhaps 1 rare item at least out of the 10 boxes, I would have been happy and bought more keys in the future.

Now you know. If you don’t think you’re going to find very many things from the chests useful then spend your money elsewhere.

zenleto.6179:

Now you know. If you don’t think you’re going to find very many things from the chests useful then spend your money elsewhere.

Yeah I know, that’s what I am going to do. I was just curious if this was normal or if it was just my straw of bad luck, but I guess drop rates are terrible with these chests. And it just doesn’t make sense how they are marketing this to me personally. If I want people to keep buying my stuff, and for them to come back, I’ll make sure they at least get something cool or useful within a certain amount. And I think getting at least 1 cool item out of the 30 (10 chests) could have been possible, and could have encouraged people to keep buying more keys. But no, players like me, who get disappointed wont ever buy another key again.

Would you profit more from people getting something cool every now and then and people keep buying, rather then this where people just get discouraged because they barely ever get anything and don’t want to buy anymore?

Like am I missing something here, because the first options seems to be a lot more profitable.

As I already saw in this thread, and in other threads, some people refuse to buy anymore ever again, including myself. So how does that make any money, or make any sense even

Because there is always another “you” coming along and buying keys. And that’s all that is needed, a continuous stream of people who either don’t know the odds or don’t believe the odds or get lucky the first time, so they keep on buying.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

As I already saw in this thread, and in other threads, some people refuse to buy anymore ever again, including myself. So how does that make any money, or make any sense even

Because there is always another “you” coming along and buying keys. And that’s all that is needed, a continuous stream of people who either don’t know the odds or don’t believe the odds or get lucky the first time, so they keep on buying.

You’d still make a ton more if everyone else still were to buy keys because they actually saw it was worth.

maniamsmart.7981:

zenleto.6179:

Now you know. If you don’t think you’re going to find very many things from the chests useful then spend your money elsewhere.

Yeah I know, that’s what I am going to do. I was just curious if this was normal or if it was just my straw of bad luck, but I guess drop rates are terrible with these chests. And it just doesn’t make sense how they are marketing this to me personally. If I want people to keep buying my stuff, and for them to come back, I’ll make sure they at least get something cool or useful within a certain amount. And I think getting at least 1 cool item out of the 30 (10 chests) could have been possible, and could have encouraged people to keep buying more keys. But no, players like me, who get disappointed wont ever buy another key again.

Would you profit more from people getting something cool every now and then and people keep buying, rather then this where people just get discouraged because they barely ever get anything and don’t want to buy anymore?

Like am I missing something here, because the first options seems to be a lot more profitable.

It is pretty much normal. Its just a lucky dip, or a heavier gamble for people who are searching for scraps. I buy keys occasionally but I use the stuff inside the chests so I just find anything nicer than a booster is an interesting bonus. I don’t buy them all the time though, just sometimes.

edit: especially now the exchange rate is grossly unfavourable and I’m screwed buying anything from Anet.

maniamsmart.7981:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

As I already saw in this thread, and in other threads, some people refuse to buy anymore ever again, including myself. So how does that make any money, or make any sense even

Because there is always another “you” coming along and buying keys. And that’s all that is needed, a continuous stream of people who either don’t know the odds or don’t believe the odds or get lucky the first time, so they keep on buying.

You’d still make a ton more if everyone else still were to buy keys because they actually saw it was worth.

Maybe. But maybe they’ve listened to studies that say lots of low rewards and occasional, rare high rewards motivates people to try harder. It would explain the whole reward structure of the game if that’s it.

Just a flesh wound.3589:

maniamsmart.7981:

Just a flesh wound.3589:

As I already saw in this thread, and in other threads, some people refuse to buy anymore ever again, including myself. So how does that make any money, or make any sense even

Because there is always another “you” coming along and buying keys. And that’s all that is needed, a continuous stream of people who either don’t know the odds or don’t believe the odds or get lucky the first time, so they keep on buying.

You’d still make a ton more if everyone else still were to buy keys because they actually saw it was worth.

Maybe. But maybe they’ve listened to studies that say lots of low rewards and occasional, rare high rewards motivates people to try harder. It would explain the whole reward structure of the game if that’s it.

Oh well, not my company. I just won’t buy anything anymore

Looks about the same as I typically get.

Most MMO’s have something similar to this in their boutique. Just be grateful that GW2 does not put anything important for game-play in these chests. The last MMO that I played put just about everything essential to end-game competition behind RNG items purchased from their boutique. People would spend literally thousands of dollars trying to finish their end-game gear so that they could just stay competitive in the game :/

Same reason people play the lottery

The problem with insisting that every chest, or even 10 chests or whatever amount higher than it is now should drop ‘something good’ is that what people usually mean by that is something they can sell on the TP for a lot of gold.

And those items are only worth a lot of gold because they’re rare. As soon as you raise the drop rate you raise the number available and so lower the value, which means you’re in an event worse position than now because the ‘bad’ items are still bad and now the ‘good’ items are bad drops too and there’s no chance of getting lucky.

Hopefully because they’re financially fortunate.

Black Lion chests are the primary way of obtaining Black Lion Tickets.

Someone would say: “You know; I am rich.”

What i find entertaining about them, is that at one point, people really complained about the poopy drop rates of stuff, and that they weren’t dropping anything to justify the value. ANet decided to “boost” the drop rates on some of the more uncommon items, but then gradually, patch after patch reduced that drop rate a little here. A little there. Always kind snuck into the patch notes somewhere, until we ended up with the craptacular drops we get from them today!

The more you know! lol

The fact that you can get things like crafting materials and Tomes of Knowledge from these is really pathetic. Even unidentified dyes can be had from map rewards now.

I like spending keys, but not at normal prices. I only buy them when they’re on sale (which isn’t very often). But, I’m weird: I’m happy just getting the uncommon stuff like forge stones and BL salvage kits. I’m perfectly happy never getting a rare item, but ONLY at the lower price, when the return is about even money. But, it’s a money-loser at the regular price, even 25 at a time.

Why do many people in real life think they will retire when they win the lottery?

People want to have that ray of hope, and so long as they think they may get lucky games will take advantage of that.

“There’s a sucker born every minute” P.T. Barnum

I’d spend money on the gem shop if they brought armor sets back. I bought a ton of armor sets. On both accounts actually. You know how many outfits I bought? One. After that, I never wanted another outfit again. Why? Because I can’t mix and match them to make a style that is my own like I can with armor sets. The other reason I won’t spend money on the gem shop is that ArenaNet has zero problems using gambling to get people to buy stuff. That in and of itself isn’t my beef. My beef is that they want to put very little in the game for us to earn by way of new armor sets and weapons and backpieces compared to what’s released on the gem shop.

Start putting armor sets back in the game to earn with good quality. New T1-3 cultural sets. Is it too much to ask for a new set of armor to earn in pvp every year? What about WvW?

Oh well. If they just want to put out outfits on the cash shop and leech money off of gamblers that’s their prerogative. I’ll spend money in WIldStar and Marvel Heroes.

If you go in expecting to make money on them, you’re an idiot.

pulls out soap box

Black Lion Chests were created to be a gem shop sampler of mostly minor items with an average gem shop value similar to that of the price of a key.

So mainly boosters, minor services, maybe the occasional hair or total makeover kit, minis, a backpack skin, mail delivery thing, finishers. But they also spiked the store with tickets (roughly 1 in 50) and ticket scraps (roughly 1 in 3, need 10) that you can use to get black lion weapon skins. Some are very nice looking even. But the “price” for one ticket is statistically, on average, 1 in 25 but if you start with zero scraps, 29 keys averages out to be your first ticket. However with 29 keys/chests there’s a 30% chance you will not get a ticket or 10 or more scraps and a 26% chance of getting 2 or more so it works out to 1, on average. It works out over the long haul to 1 in 25 because of those leftover ticket scraps accumulate until you get 10 for a key.

You can do the math on the cost of that many keys in cash or gold and check out the prices per ticket for skins and realize quickly it’s a bad investment if you are going for tickets. Hence the idiot comment.

However, if you can remove that motivation from the equation and like the “secret toy surprise” at the bottom of your CrackerJacks, then they can be a fun, occasional thing to buy if keys are on sale. This last anniversary sale and keys twice, one was a straight 25% off and the other time was a single 5 pack at 75% off.

But if you are only in it for the ticket and scraps … just walk away.

I’ve opened thousands. Yes, thousands of these chests with keys and I’ve had my good days and bad days.

I usually do batches of 100 keys. From mine own personal experiences, I do feel that ANet does indeed tweak the drop rates for certain things. tombs of Knowledge used to be about 30-40 out of 100 chests (as an example) yet my most recent batch (quite a while ago due to the crappy rewards within cough minis cough dye kits) did 100 keys and got significantly less (around 8-20 tombs of knowledge).

So yes, as others have stated, you can see things clearer when dealing with bigger numbers.

Out of the thousands of chests I’ve opened over the past year or so the coolest thing would be 2 perm hairstylist contracts & 2 perm merch contracts, among anything else that sold for 100g+ aka the nodes.

Why? Because people like to gamble. When you open a box, you even see a slot machine interface. For a game that’s rated teen it’s actually pretty reprehensible.

For the same reason they play the slots or buy a lottery ticket. “This time I’ll get the big payout. Or maybe this time. Or maybe this time…”

lol at seeing the mighty Lord Humungus in this thread.

But yeah OP…RNG.

I mean dudes in CS:GO make RL money from posting videos of them opening similar chests. It’s the games slot or pokie machine mechanic and some people love to gamble yeah?

Lord Kuru.3685:

Why? Because people like to gamble. When you open a box, you even see a slot machine interface. For a game that’s rated teen it’s actually pretty reprehensible.

Ah, someone who feels the same way I do about it. Even there is technically no “real” monetary reward, you can pay real money to buy the keys. So it’s kind of a legal loophole and is most definitely gambling in the psychological sense. It’s rather sad to me that games can get away with this sort of thing, under the umbrella excuse “virtual” and “game.” It’s definitely ethically questionable when real money can be involved.

I imagine the only reason they don’t get slapped on the wrist for it is because it’s not possible for real money to exit the system – only to enter it – so the government couldn’t give two hoots about it.

Somehow the people who design these systems are ok with living with them. They probably sit there and reassure themselves that no one is actually wasting important money on key gambling, while some exec gets the brunt of the profit from it.

The dark side of game design… not fun to talk about or acknowledge, but it’s there.

Labjax.2465:

Ah, someone who feels the same way I do about it. Even there is technically no “real” monetary reward, you can pay real money to buy the keys. So it’s kind of a legal loophole and is most definitely gambling in the psychological sense. It’s rather sad to me that games can get away with this sort of thing, under the umbrella excuse “virtual” and “game.” It’s definitely ethically questionable when real money can be involved.

I imagine the only reason they don’t get slapped on the wrist for it is because it’s not possible for real money to exit the system – only to enter it – so the government couldn’t give two hoots about it.

Somehow the people who design these systems are ok with living with them. They probably sit there and reassure themselves that no one is actually wasting important money on key gambling, while some exec gets the brunt of the profit from it.

The dark side of game design… not fun to talk about or acknowledge, but it’s there.

Slight over dramatization me thinks.

As long as it’s a choice to take part or not the game devs should lose no sleep over it. I can’t see people not feeding their children or losing their house because they spent all their money on BL keys in GW2.

RL gambling is a huge issue but the rewards are RL money. In this format it’s supplementary income to help keep the game running in reward for niche in-game shinies.

Big difference.

Neural.1824:

Black Lion Keys are pretty simple.

Don’t buy them unless you are willing to lose every single time.

You could buy hundreds of them and not get anything good. That’s how Anet makes money, they prey upon the weakness of gambling addiction.

Er, loladdiction?

Yes, some people are, others have more than enough money to try their luck, hundreds of millions of people around the world enter local lotteries, only a tiny fraction of those are ‘addicted’.

Same will be true here, I have no doubt.

I classify this in the same gambling category as CCG packs and capsule or blind box toys.

maniamsmart.7981:

Neural.1824:

Black Lion Keys are pretty simple.

Don’t buy them unless you are willing to lose every single time.

You could buy hundreds of them and not get anything good. That’s how Anet makes money, they prey upon the weakness of gambling addiction.

Seems like a pretty stupid and advantageous method.

How does encouraging players to use gems to buy keys to get cool stuff work if you don’t get anything cool.

Hell, if I would have at least gotten 1-2 cool items from the 30 items that I got, I’d go ahead and buy more keys in the future and use more of my money to buy gems. That’s a pretty smart idea right?

But no, I guess giving people nothing cool and exciting and just taking their gems and making them never want to buy keys again is a better idea, lol.

Exclusiveness is what makes things in these games cool and exciting. If they gave everyone who opened 10 chests a Black Lion claim ticket, the weapon skins would all be worthless, like a few silver each.

fireflyry.7023:

Slight over dramatization me thinks.

As long as it’s a choice to take part or not the game devs should lose no sleep over it. I can’t see people not feeding their children or losing their house because they spent all their money on BL keys in GW2.

RL gambling is a huge issue but the rewards are RL money. In this format it’s supplementary income to help keep the game running in reward for niche in-game shinies.

Big difference.

Slight overdramatization is my middle name.

In all seriousness though, the “choice” argument is the same as it is for regulated gambling. Yeah, they’re making the choice to do it, but due to human psychology, people are prone to getting addicted to it.

The issue is that where choice ends and begins is a very thin line.

Is this a staggering moral issue in Guild Wars 2? Well no, probably not. But some games are a lot worse on the “reel you in” front and it would be downright silly to pretend like gambling is only an issue when it’s at a casino or a horse race. The psychological impact is much the same. The only real difference is whether and how much real money you’re losing.

Labjax.2465:

The psychological impact is much the same. The only real difference is whether and how much real money you’re losing.

Totally agree.

I just don’t see it becoming an issue here. It’s too niche a game.

In saying look what happened in CS:GO with skins accessibility based on RNG. There are youtube videos of people dumping whole paychecks on that kitten. I agree the concept is horrid but in this game it’s pretty much a non-issue. I have to be subjective in that I can’t see it doing any harm to GW2 or their players and it keeps the game running. At least here it seems to be working as intended and unless I see proof of it being hugely negative or hurting players I don’t think over-generalization is accurate.

fireflyry.7023:

Totally agree.

I just don’t see it becoming an issue here. It’s too niche a game.

In saying look what happened in CS:GO with skins accessibility based on RNG. There are youtube videos of people dumping whole paychecks on that kitten. I agree the concept is horrid but in this game it’s pretty much a non-issue. I have to be subjective in that I can’t see it doing any harm to GW2 or their players and it keeps the game running. At least here it seems to be working as intended and unless I see proof of it being hugely negative or hurting players I don’t think over-generalization is accurate.

Fair enough.

No Idea. I wish people didn’t so we can have this whole lockbox crap go away. Its a horrible system for the player. Just sell the weapon skins as packs for something, not this nickel and dime the wallets . . . on a “chance” to get to get one skin. The Gem Store prices are completely out of wack in term of values. 400 gems for one extra bag slot on one character only? Needed charges to change your armor looks? Things like that are very player unfriendly for a game.

Katta Castellum.3957:

i think the problem is you opened 10 chests. that is not a large enough sample size to have any conclusive results.

This only goes to add more to all the complaints and conversations about the over the past few years that spending money on keys is one biggest wastes there is in this game.

Auralae.7482:

Why do people buy lottery tickets or put money in slot machines? It’s the same principle. Variable reinforcement schedules are very powerful when shaping behaviors.

In few countries the gambling is banned. This is no different from classic gambling, you could spend tons of money, If you are brainless addict. I don’t support this move from Anet and even will never buy anything from BLTC, since the prices are ridiculously high. Tools for a price of edition upgrade and so on.

Auralae.7482:

Why do people buy lottery tickets or put money in slot machines? It’s the same principle. Variable reinforcement schedules are very powerful when shaping behaviors.

In few countries the gambling is banned. This is no different from classic gambling, you could spend tons of money, If you are brainless addict. I don’t support this move from Anet and even will never buy anything from BLTC, since the prices are ridiculously high. Tools for a price of edition upgrade and so on.

Remember back when these things used to drop from normal mobs? I miss those days.

I must be missing something OP… you bought 10 keys and you won something every time it seems… guaranteed win… so what is the question all about.

Ooh I get it.. you decided to buy 10 keys , didn’t get the shiny you wanted out of the chests and now cry foul… can’t take the hit, then don’t play the gambling game – simples!

Most people realize that it’s pointless. Gambling things like this usually make most of its money off of a really small portion of people that have really addictive personalities. The rest comes from when someone buys a few then realizes it’s not worth it. If enough people do that it adds up quite a bit.

They want a chance at permanent _______.

I know I would want a permanent banker soooo bad.