Guild Wars 2

It’s an antiquated mechanic that has no place in modern MMO’s. Especially a game such as GW2 that is supposed to be innovative.

But… MONEY?!?!?!

Interesting read. Thank you OP for posting. I enjoyed D&D based pc games like neverwinter nights, but i so despise RNG in GW2… :p

In general I strongly dislike RNG. I’d rather kill 2,000 of something with a visible incremental (reliable) gain towards a goal than kill half that and just get lucky on one of them to gain the goal.

Draco.2806:

Because creators of D&D knew that asking players to perform calculations with decimal places was absurd.

The idea was that random rolls average out over time, meaning player skill and actions were ultimately more important than will of the dice. This is still the way and reason it’s used by game designers today. It isn’t there to make things random (although that is also a valid approach, and it’s also part of D&D). The problem there is, if you spread the luck too thin, it will never average out.

If you see where I’m going with this, go ahead and read on. (If not, please direct your attention to the section below the break.)

So what happens when you want your loot to drop after killing lots and lots and lots of things? Or if you want your on-crit effect to only trigger for 0,1 of its effectiveness? Well, what happens is that it now takes few centuries for the numbers to average out. You’ve successfully introduced gambling where there should be none. Well-done!

You know what I’m talking about. The Mystic Toilet. T6 mats. Exotic drops. Ascended drops. Even Rare drops. Chest drops. Black Lion chests. Dyes. Precursors. Mystic Clovers. Those silly on-crit effects that only trigger once every blue moon. The list goes on… It shouldn’t happen. It’s a mistake in design.

But you know what the punchline is? No, really? Remember WoW? Its developers know about this. They’ve seen no end to unlucky players being unable to collect 6 Wolf Pelts in the beginning zone for a month straight. And they fixed it. In WoW, the longer you go without collecting a random reward, the higher your chance that you’ll get it next time. So while an extremely lucky player can still get 10 Epic Loots from a Big Boss, there’s no situation where someone will slay it ten times over and walk away without a single Epic Sword of Rat-Slaying.

There goes you throwing 400G worth of exotics into the Mystic Toilet and getting nothing in return. There goes you farming the champ train instead of running dungeons or whatever else. There go your Exotic and Ascended drops which most players will brush off as a fairy-tale. There go the amazingly underwhelming wonders of Black Lion Chest. There goes that Luck meter – that you spend 50G on – doing seemingly nothing at all.

There’s your problem, ArenaNet.

fixplz.

---

Okay, a bit more explanation.

Please direct your attention to this article.

More specifically, the graph to the right. It shows how many times you have to roll a 6-sided die before it turns out you might as well be rolling a die with “3.5” on each side. And that number is about 400 times, to be generous. So, it takes 400 rolls with a one-in-six chance for luck to vanish as a factor. Everyone on the same page here? Okay, good.

So. Gaming. How exactly do you award your player a 0,01 pieces of Epic Loot because you only want them to have it after killing 100 Epic Rats? Well, you can’t. Okay, you can introduce crafting, but shut up. Traditionally this problem has been solved by having each Epic Rat have a small chance to drop said loot wholesale, because with certain probability in place it WILL drop after killing close to 100 rats for most players.

Same applies to combat. There’s a big difference between your lowest and highest damage, a crit and a non-crit, right? Well guess what. After delivering your 1,xxx,th strike, it will average out.

Or at least it should if you’ve made your game with the basic knowledge of what the heck you’re doing. And ANet know what they’re doing, right?..

I’ve used this explanation multiple times when arguing with my guild about the RNG. Most of them refused to acknowledge the issue, while those that did acknowledge its existence have since quit. I used to play WoW and I really admire the way that Blizzard managed their RNG. If I didn’t get the item I wanted, I would do that event again and I would probably get that item. If not, within 5 runs I would get the item I needed without fail.

I could go for years in GW2 without getting the item that I want.

So math is tough but I haven’t seen anyone actually come up with a better system than utilizing the inherent function in every programming language on the planet called the random number generator and apply it to a probability table or multiple tables like GW2 does.
Rolling dice is exactly what the RNG does. Rolling that die happens for EVERY SINGLE DROP thus it will never average out. Average means that there are multiple samples over time; a single drop cannot average out, it is already at it’s minimum, maximum, average, mean, and all other statistical words that you may want to apply to multiple samples because it is nearly all of them at the same time because x*1 = x and x/1 = x…

I’m sure that if they want to burn through cpu cycles they could come up with a genetic(Metaheuristic) or fractal algorithm to choose your loot for you. Or maybe they could eliminate one of the tables and ask you which of the items you’d like of that randomly selected quality level in a window for each and every single enemy that you kill…

Your WoW example is flawed since it just adjusts the drop table by a very small amount each kill for whatever loot that monster is supposed to drop. It doesn’t “fix” RNG, it just adjusts the probability a tiny bit each kill.

It’s not like they’re ever going to bust out:
if (reward/time < awesome) { giveBestItemTo(playerName) }

I don’t like the RNG any more than the next person, in fact I got better loot before they started messing with rewards. Now I get a rare for certain events and plenty of Ectos from them but I can’t seem to get any Ori out of anything now. Wood and Cloth yay.

I look forward to the day when someone posts an efficient loot algorithm that beats the efficiency of yourLootItemNumber=rng(100000); | it’s more complex than that but still very fast |

The day games don’t NEED to use RNG will be an interesting day and I hope I live long enough to play those games.

Galtrix.7369:

Draco.2806:

Because creators of D&D knew that asking players to perform calculations with decimal places was absurd.

The idea was that random rolls average out over time, meaning player skill and actions were ultimately more important than will of the dice. This is still the way and reason it’s used by game designers today. It isn’t there to make things random (although that is also a valid approach, and it’s also part of D&D). The problem there is, if you spread the luck too thin, it will never average out.

If you see where I’m going with this, go ahead and read on. (If not, please direct your attention to the section below the break.)

So what happens when you want your loot to drop after killing lots and lots and lots of things? Or if you want your on-crit effect to only trigger for 0,1 of its effectiveness? Well, what happens is that it now takes few centuries for the numbers to average out. You’ve successfully introduced gambling where there should be none. Well-done!

You know what I’m talking about. The Mystic Toilet. T6 mats. Exotic drops. Ascended drops. Even Rare drops. Chest drops. Black Lion chests. Dyes. Precursors. Mystic Clovers. Those silly on-crit effects that only trigger once every blue moon. The list goes on… It shouldn’t happen. It’s a mistake in design.

But you know what the punchline is? No, really? Remember WoW? Its developers know about this. They’ve seen no end to unlucky players being unable to collect 6 Wolf Pelts in the beginning zone for a month straight. And they fixed it. In WoW, the longer you go without collecting a random reward, the higher your chance that you’ll get it next time. So while an extremely lucky player can still get 10 Epic Loots from a Big Boss, there’s no situation where someone will slay it ten times over and walk away without a single Epic Sword of Rat-Slaying.

There goes you throwing 400G worth of exotics into the Mystic Toilet and getting nothing in return. There goes you farming the champ train instead of running dungeons or whatever else. There go your Exotic and Ascended drops which most players will brush off as a fairy-tale. There go the amazingly underwhelming wonders of Black Lion Chest. There goes that Luck meter – that you spend 50G on – doing seemingly nothing at all.

There’s your problem, ArenaNet.

fixplz.

---

Okay, a bit more explanation.

Please direct your attention to this article.

More specifically, the graph to the right. It shows how many times you have to roll a 6-sided die before it turns out you might as well be rolling a die with “3.5” on each side. And that number is about 400 times, to be generous. So, it takes 400 rolls with a one-in-six chance for luck to vanish as a factor. Everyone on the same page here? Okay, good.

So. Gaming. How exactly do you award your player a 0,01 pieces of Epic Loot because you only want them to have it after killing 100 Epic Rats? Well, you can’t. Okay, you can introduce crafting, but shut up. Traditionally this problem has been solved by having each Epic Rat have a small chance to drop said loot wholesale, because with certain probability in place it WILL drop after killing close to 100 rats for most players.

Same applies to combat. There’s a big difference between your lowest and highest damage, a crit and a non-crit, right? Well guess what. After delivering your 1,xxx,th strike, it will average out.

Or at least it should if you’ve made your game with the basic knowledge of what the heck you’re doing. And ANet know what they’re doing, right?..

I’ve used this explanation multiple times when arguing with my guild about the RNG. Most of them refused to acknowledge the issue, while those that did acknowledge its existence have since quit. I used to play WoW and I really admire the way that Blizzard managed their RNG. If I didn’t get the item I wanted, I would do that event again and I would probably get that item. If not, within 5 runs I would get the item I needed without fail.

I could go for years in GW2 without getting the item that I want.

That is the problem right there. Someone can throw 4 items into the forge once and come out with a precursor. I’ve seen it happen to strangers and to guildmates. Then you have someone who just threw 400g into the forge and got nothing except for a few exotics that sell for 1g. This is a problem. As OP said it’s nothing but gambling.

How do you think it feels to be the guy that just blew 100’s of gold to watch someone else just toss some random items in and get what the other person was after? Bad business plan.

I actually wish that items like weapons and armor, with the exception of boss chests, never dropped and need to be crafted/purchased instead.

I grew up hunting a lot and not once did I ever find a helmet on a dead deer.

1:00 is most relevant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWtvrPTbQ_c

mtpelion.4562:

I actually wish that items like weapons and armor, with the exception of boss chests, never dropped and need to be crafted/purchased instead.

I grew up hunting a lot and not once did I ever find a helmet on a dead deer.

Had to quote this b/c of my childhood. My friend’s dad used to take us “hunting” (we climb trees, pull them out of nests and, drop them to a bagger on the ground) raccoons. You would not believe some of the things we found in raccoon nests. Money, jewelry, underwear, wind chimes, more trash than you shake a stick at….etc……

Mystic Toilet is like Blackjack. Don’t play it unless you can count the cards.

Do you think ANET actually cares as long as the money continues to roll in for NCsoft, whether it be virtual or RL.

Oh hey. A reasonable discussion. Thanks for the nice bunch of replies, everyone!

Galtrix.7369:

If I didn’t get the item I wanted, I would do that event again and I would probably get that item. If not, within 5 runs I would get the item I needed without fail … I could go for years in GW2 without getting the item that I want.

I’m not sure ANet even understand there IS such an issue (hence the topic). Blizzard know it because they read lots of player feedback, but if ANet just looks at their metrics they come up with a pool of hundreds of thousands of players among which it probably does average out to what they intended. Or maybe they don’t even look. Who knows.

Jared.8497:

In general I strongly dislike RNG. I’d rather kill 2,000 of something with a visible incremental (reliable) gain towards a goal than kill half that and just get lucky on one of them to gain the goal.

I think everyone would rather have that, honestly. Actually it’s one of the things Crafting is supposed to be about. Speaking of which…

mtpelion.4562:

I actually wish that items like weapons and armor, with the exception of boss chests, never dropped and need to be crafted/purchased instead.

Yep. It’s a fairly disaster-proof way to do it.

If you MUST have random drops in your game for some reason, and you can’t use 0,001% drop probability for your extremely rare gear (because it will take a thousand years to average out), then tie that probability to random crafting mat drops and have a recipe that requires a lot of them.

Hilariously enough though, in GW2, even crafting mats have too low of a drop rate to average out over a reasonable amount of time.

Lil Puppy.5216:

Your WoW example is flawed since it just adjusts the drop table by a very small amount each kill for whatever loot that monster is supposed to drop. It doesn’t “fix” RNG, it just adjusts the probability a tiny bit each kill.

Yep. It doesn’t really fix the issue. However, it goes a long way towards minimizing it, and it works.

Lil Puppy.5216:

So math is tough but I haven’t seen anyone actually come up with a better system…

I’m not sure there even is one. I think using probabilities much higher than 1 in 10 is asking for trouble (again, 400 or more tries just for a one-in-six chance). The answer seems to be not to use it.

Lil Puppy.5216:

Rolling dice is exactly what the RNG does. Rolling that die happens for EVERY SINGLE DROP thus it will never average out.

Yep. The gambler’s fallacy. That’s usually the problem for using random numbers in combat because you’re dealing with a very small sample. When talking about loot, however, you’re looking at an average over an account’s lifespan, so what people are and aren’t supposed to have after certain amount of time/kills/whatever.

Requiem.8769:

1:00 is most relevant.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWtvrPTbQ_c

I’m glad you brought that up. I didn’t think of mentioning it. But I think it deserves mentioning not just for straightforward implications but coupled with the fact that, well.

Delivering rewards or punishment at complete random is a form of torture.

I know it sounds like I’m exaggerating, but I’m really not. I won’t go into gruesome details. The bottom line is, it’s that bad.

Technically speaking, you’re using completely the wrong terminology here. A RNG in a video game simply creates a number for a specific function in the game from a variety of other functions (for GW2 the number of people currently playing, the current time, a variety of random mob movements with no relation to the value, etc.), usually also using a precalculated “seed” that is randomized based on a variety of other factors. This allows the game to create semi-random reactions in the game world, meaning that not every single action has the same result.

GW2’s RNG facilitates things like mobs being able to patrol with some degree of randomness, the functionality of the timing windows on many of the world boss encounters, variance on damage for every attack in the game, loot not being the exact same thing every single time for every identical mob in the overworld, and even things so simple as character dialogue not firing every single time you commit a single action. It’s nigh-impossible to develop any mildly complex game that lacks an RNG entirely, because the RNG is simply a Random Number Generator.

On the other hand, I agree that /abuse/ of the RNG in game mechanics is out-of-control right now, and the RNG is being unfairly exploited to produce “lasting” content, particularly in the gem store and in the loot tables. The odds of getting a remotely notable drop in the open world are completely out of hand, requiring players to sell mountains of trash that nobody wants in order to have a fair chance at gear. The Mystic Forge is perhaps the worst-made crafting system in any MMO that’s been remotely popular in the past five years, and for a game as prominent as GW2, that is shameful. And the idea that they added RNG-dependent items to the Gem Store like the dye packs which have a fractional chance to give you anything you want, or even worse the Black Lion Keys (which were shamelessly adapted from TF2 and remain a senseless purchase to this day, especially as you can simply run a Human Noble Ranger through the personal story and get one for free in a fifth of the time you’d grind for it), is on the other hand shameless.

See Mystic Clovers for the ultimate summation of GW2’s reliance on RNG to make lasting content: expensive, teeth-gnashingly frustrating, and ridiculous.

One alternative that I’ve seen posited a significant amount is the idea of a token system: by doing certain tasks that have the ability to reward you with a specific item, you’d gain tokens, and if you gained enough without getting the item you’d have the ability to trade the tokens in for something specific. WvW has a similar system with the Badges of Honor, but ultimately since the chance for getting usable equipment from an enemy player is so minuscule, and there’s no guaranteed chance to get Badges from an opponent’s drops ANYWAYS, it is only partially implemented, and very poorly at that.

A better idea could be to revamp karma as a currency, and allow it to purchase all stats of exotic gear as well as multiple unique skins and fun consumables, rather than have it be tied to its current position of uselessness. Having karma as a legitimate alternative to gold could, potentially, stabilize the economy, as if prices for equipment got too high and the methods of obtaining equipment became too sparse, people could simply fall back on karma to get them endgame gear anyways.

Whether you agree with the exact implementation I’ve suggested or not ultimately doesn’t matter: if you can see a similar, slightly adjusted system working well, then I’ve made my point.

Of course, that proposed idea wouldn’t be implemented for two reasons: one, ArenaNet’s philosophy has changed, and (despite their “manifesto”) they do not want anyone to attain the highest level of equipment this game has to offer anymore without having them run through several flaming hoops and three months’ worth of luck-based missions.

The second reason, of course, is even simpler. It’d make too much sense.

Quite right.

Making Karma useful could very well mitigate some issues with the “RNG” in the game. In fact, wasn’t that the whole point of it? Almost all quest-givers reward you with level-appropriate gear for Karma, so… It’s, like, huh?.. I guess it’s just another idea in GW2 that never saw proper implementation…

It’s like ANet is afraid that without meaningless grind and chase for a chance at shinies people will just up and stop playing. Honestly the worst part of it is… They might be right. GW2 is a pretty good overall, sure, but is it really good enough to warrant spending hundreds of hours in?

To simplify the answer to the main question at hand: “Why does RNG even exist?”

If you provide the same guaranteed loot for each enemy that you kill, you end up killing the game. If I go out to farm the Shadow Behemoth daily, and each time he drops a Final Rest staff, why would I even continue to do it. What good does having 100 Final Rests in my inventory do? I can’t sell it, seeing as how everyone else has the same.

Now onto the idea of RNG modifiers for loot tables. That’s also a bad idea. The more you fail = increasing odds that you’ll still get loot. That leads to more guaranteed drops, which is completely counter productive to the idea of item rarity. It turns the game into “Just kill 10 rats and you get your Godly Skritt Gauntlets of Doom”.

You can’t have item rarity without a mechanic that randomizes the drops. The lower the RNG %, the more rare the item. Sure someone might get lucky on their first drop, but that’s the beauty of RNG. Someone might farm the same event over their lifetime and still don’t get the drop they want.

One more thing. Being random, there is no true average, only the illusion of it. If you did something 500 times, and take the average drop rate of the randomness, you’ll have what you believe to be the sweet spot number. Take a different person doing the same thing 5,000 times, and there’s the chance his numbers will be vastly lower/higher.

To give you the illusion of having done something and got something in a video game.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

If you provide the same guaranteed loot for each enemy that you kill, you end up killing the game. What good does having 100 Final Rests in my inventory do? I can’t sell it, seeing as how everyone else has the same.
…
Now onto the idea of RNG modifiers for loot tables. That’s also a bad idea. The more you fail = increasing odds that you’ll still get loot. That leads to more guaranteed drops, which is completely counter productive to the idea of item rarity.
…
One more thing. Being random, there is no true average, only the illusion of it.

All of these points are already in the OP. Did you read it?..

RNG is necessary in some parts of the game. But when real money is involved. Most people do not like gambling on RNG.

Draco.2806:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

If you provide the same guaranteed loot for each enemy that you kill, you end up killing the game. What good does having 100 Final Rests in my inventory do? I can’t sell it, seeing as how everyone else has the same.
…
Now onto the idea of RNG modifiers for loot tables. That’s also a bad idea. The more you fail = increasing odds that you’ll still get loot. That leads to more guaranteed drops, which is completely counter productive to the idea of item rarity.
…
One more thing. Being random, there is no true average, only the illusion of it.

All of these points are already in the OP. Did you read it?..

Actually, my version is shorter, and more correct.

Wow. Rude.

To repeat, everything you’ve said has already been addressed in the OP, along with reasons as to why it’s wrong.

Draco.2806:

Wow. Rude.

To repeat, everything you’ve said has already been addressed in the OP, along with reasons as to why it’s wrong.

Actually, it’s more along the lines of the “opinions” as to why it’s wrong.

Not everyone shares your opinion on RNG.

The Law of Large Numbers is not subject to personal opinion. It exists.

Likewise for the rest.

Draco.2806:

The Law of Large Numbers is not subject to personal opinion. It exists.

Likewise for the rest.

The LLN doesn’t delcare ANet’s implementation wrong, bad or a mistake. You did.

ANet’s implementation will, no doubt, confrom to the LLN. How could it not? Your issue is you don’t like what the expected return is, or how how long it would take to realize it.

Draco.2806:

So what happens when you want your loot to drop after killing lots and lots and lots of things? Or if you want your on-crit effect to only trigger for 0,1 of its effectiveness? Well, what happens is that it now takes few centuries for the numbers to average out. You’ve successfully introduced gambling where there should be none. Well-done!

Opinion. It may very well be intended. And again, some of us may feel ok with this and that it should be there.

Draco.2806:

You know what I’m talking about. The Mystic Toilet. T6 mats. Exotic drops. Ascended drops. Even Rare drops. Chest drops. Black Lion chests. Dyes. Precursors. Mystic Clovers. Those silly on-crit effects that only trigger once every blue moon. The list goes on… It shouldn’t happen. It’s a mistake in design.

Opinion. You think it shouldn’t happen, you think it’s a mistake in design. Some do think it should happen, some don’t think it’s a mistake.

Draco.2806:

But you know what the punchline is? No, really? Remember WoW? Its developers know about this. They’ve seen no end to unlucky players being unable to collect 6 Wolf Pelts in the beginning zone for a month straight. And they fixed it. In WoW, the longer you go without collecting a random reward, the higher your chance that you’ll get it next time. So while an extremely lucky player can still get 10 Epic Loots from a Big Boss, there’s no situation where someone will slay it ten times over and walk away without a single Epic Sword of Rat-Slaying.

You think this is a solution. Some may consider it a weak implementation to cater to an entitled audience.

Lil Puppy.5216:

Your WoW example is flawed since it just adjusts the drop table by a very small amount each kill for whatever loot that monster is supposed to drop. It doesn’t “fix” RNG, it just adjusts the probability a tiny bit each kill.

It may not fix RNG, but it fixes the game.

Draco.2806:

The Law of Large Numbers is not subject to personal opinion. It exists.

Likewise for the rest.

That’s just a theory based on the assumption that any random number rolled enough times will average close to an expected number. However, it’s how you perceive the average to be. If you get a Precursor in your first 100 attempts, your personal views would be that RNG is favorable, thus that is the average for that player. If another person attempts 5,000 forgings, and yet doesn’t get a Precursor, their personal view would be that it’s impossible.

So the Law of Large Numbers is basically a math formula to tell if you are lucky or not to get the item that you desire.

Mourningcry.9428:

The LLN doesn’t delcare ANet’s implementation wrong, bad or a mistake. You did.

ANet’s implementation will, no doubt, confrom to the LLN. How could it not? Your issue is you don’t like what the expected return is, or how how long it would take to realize it.

Actually, if you read the very beginning of the post, I’m saying it goes against the intent of applying rarity to indivisible items, where using a large chance will keep the rarity of an item certain due to law of averages, whereas using a very law chance will deviate from idea of rarity and into realm of pure luck (which is not the intent of randomized loot/randomized damage).

Mourningcry.9428:

Opinion. It may very well be intended. And again, some of us may feel ok with this and that it should be there.

Well, you’re right, I’m making an assumption that most players do not wish to take part in gambling with rewards distributed at total random.

I assumed that would be insane.

If that’s your idea of a good game, I have nothing to say to that.

Mourningcry.9428:

You think this is a solution. Some may consider it a weak implementation to cater to an entitled audience.

Aaaaand we’ve about reached the peak of absurdity. Please don’t go any higher.

What specific things in this game are random drops only (sorry, long time MMO player, casual in this game)? Almost everything is token-based purchase.

Life is a lottery. That’s why RNG has a place in video games.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

That’s just a theory based on the assumption that any random number rolled enough times will average close to an expected number.

Right.

I would like to draw your attention to the fact the Law of Large Numbers is an established fact, not a theory.

This is actually kind of a big deal. It’s the foundation of the entire field of Science.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

If you get a Precursor in your first 100 attempts, your personal views would be that RNG is favorable, thus that is the average for that player. If another person attempts 5,000 forgings, and yet doesn’t get a Precursor, their personal view would be that it’s impossible.

Yep.

That’s what my whole point is about: if you select a very low probability, it will take an enormous amount of attempts before it averages out and becomes “fair”.

A six-sided die is the most common example, and it’s something you can test at home with some pen and paper. It’s a random roll. You don’t know where it’ll end up. But if you keep track of the numbers, it will come closer and closer to average the more you roll – by 100th attempt, it’s most likely you’ll have to keep track using decimal places after 3.

It’s totally random, but somehow it averages out.

That’s the whole point of random numbers in games: sooner or later, they average out and become “fair”. Those “fair” numbers is what’s ultimately used in all the calculations and all the discussions of combat balance and item rarity. The problem is, when you’ve set the probability too low in your estimations of rarity of something, it might take a couple thousand years for it to get to that point – and until then, it’s all up to luck.

And luck isn’t fair.

Anthony.7219:

What specific things in this game are random drops only (sorry, long time MMO player, casual in this game)? Almost everything is token-based purchase.

Off the top of my head: crafting materials, blue, green, rare, exotic, ascended weapons/gear, unique skins.

Also, can someone please show me where the law of large numbers says that if you roll a 1000 sided dice a certain number of times you’ll roll a 73? It says they’ll average out to 500, not that you’ll roll a 73. The graph of the probability of you rolling that number will slowly reach 100% but never actually hit it.

Chance of not rolling a number = {999/1000} ^ (N)
Where 999/1000 is the chance of the loot NOT dropping (easier to do it this way because you don’t have to account for multiple drops for the same person) and N is the number of times it could have dropped.

If you go on this dungeon run 6905 times, just under 1% of people will not have the drop. STILL A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER.

Draco.2806:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

That’s just a theory based on the assumption that any random number rolled enough times will average close to an expected number.

Right.

I would like to draw your attention to the fact the Law of Large Numbers is an established fact, not a theory.

This is actually kind of a big deal. It’s the foundation of the entire field of Science.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

If you get a Precursor in your first 100 attempts, your personal views would be that RNG is favorable, thus that is the average for that player. If another person attempts 5,000 forgings, and yet doesn’t get a Precursor, their personal view would be that it’s impossible.

Yep.

That’s what my whole point is about: if you select a very low probability, it will take an enormous amount of attempts before it averages out and becomes “fair”.

A six-sided die is the most common example, and it’s something you can test at home with some pen and paper. It’s a random roll. You don’t know where it’ll end up. But if you keep track of the numbers, it will come closer and closer to average the more you roll – by 100th attempt, it’s most likely you’ll have to keep track using decimal places after 3.

It’s totally random, but somehow it averages out.

That’s the whole point of random numbers in games: sooner or later, they average out and become “fair”. Those “fair” numbers is what’s ultimately used in all the calculations and all the discussions of combat balance and item rarity. The problem is, when you’ve set the probability too low in your estimations of rarity of something, it might take a couple thousand years for it to get to that point – and until then, it’s all up to luck.

And luck isn’t fair.

Anthony.7219:

What specific things in this game are random drops only (sorry, long time MMO player, casual in this game)? Almost everything is token-based purchase.

Off the top of my head: crafting materials, blue, green, rare, exotic, ascended weapons/gear, unique skins.

Yes, but my point was that you can obtain options (although not certain specific pieces) at the same stat level for all of these things. Even some of the drops are common enough that while YOU might not get them, you’re guaranteed to get them if you do enough runs because you accumulate a little thing called “gold” that you can buy them with, so only soul-bound or extremely expensive items should be considered in this super-rare drop category. (IMO)

Draco.2806:

Actually, if you read the very beginning of the post, I’m saying it goes against the intent of applying rarity to indivisible items, where using a large chance will keep the rarity of an item certain due to law of averages, whereas using a very low chance will deviate from idea of rarity and into realm of pure luck (which is not the intent of randomized loot/randomized damage).

You are assuming, though, that randomized loot is (or should be) the intention. What are the odds that ANet employs at least one person who is conversant with statistics, and that they understand what the system they decided to use means with regard to obtaining anything via RNG? I think they knew exactly what they were doing, and the current system is working as intended.

Anthony.7219:

Yes, but my point was that you can obtain options (although not certain specific pieces) at the same stat level for all of these things. Even some of the drops are common enough that while YOU might not get them, you’re guaranteed to get them if you do enough runs because you accumulate a little thing called “gold” that you can buy them with, so only soul-bound or extremely expensive items should be considered in this super-rare drop category. (IMO)

Correct. Crafting and Trading Post are typically used to mitigate the randomness of the drops in an RPG.

Anthony.7219:

Also, can someone please show me where the law of large numbers says that if you roll a 1000 sided dice a certain number of times you’ll roll a 73?

I was about to type up something with my limited knowledge, but then I remembered a saying…

“If you think you understand statistics, you don’t understand statistics.”

Anthony.7219:

If you go on this dungeon run 6905 times, just under 1% of people will not have the drop. STILL A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER.

Yep!

There’s no such thing as absolute certainty in statistics, too. There are only ways to calculate certainty and probable value of error, and those aren’t guaranteed to be true either.

One way or another, you need some way to mitigate the randomness of the system. In MMOs this usually means Crafting: the logic is, even though you might have missed out on an Epic Drop by the time you should’ve had it, at least you have the materials to craft it by then.

Ditto for Trading Post.

IndigoSundown.5419:

What are the odds that ANet employs at least one person who is conversant with statistics, and that they understand what the system they decided to use means with regard to obtaining anything via RNG?

Considering it’s an extremely basic flaw that has a known solution (my WoW example)…

Actually that’s my point: they should employ someone like this. Or else let them do their job. Or at least look up what it is that a known RPG designer does to make their game “balanced”.

Draco.2806:

Anthony.7219:

Also, can someone please show me where the law of large numbers says that if you roll a 1000 sided dice a certain number of times you’ll roll a 73?

I was about to type up something with my limited knowledge, but then I remembered a saying…

“If you think you understand statistics, you don’t understand statistics.”

Anthony.7219:

If you go on this dungeon run 6905 times, just under 1% of people will not have the drop. STILL A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER.

Yep!

There’s no such thing as absolute certainty in statistics, too. There are only ways to calculate certainty and probable value of error, and those aren’t guaranteed to be true either.

One way or another, you need some way to mitigate the randomness of the system. In MMOs this usually means Crafting: the logic is, even though you might have missed out on an Epic Drop by the time you should’ve had it, at least you have the materials to craft it by then.

Ditto for Trading Post.

I think others here have already hit it on the head though, Karma, Laurels, non-binding loot sold on AH, these all provide alternative ways to get gear with the STATS you want, they just don’t provide a way to get the specific PIECE you want. I don’t think they care if someone ran a dungeon 1000 times and never got a specific piece. It is gambling, and it is working as intended. It is put in at the top tier because it gives a real-life feeling and goal for top-end players to work towards. This is a game after all, I’d be more concerned if someone were spending hundreds on AH dye packs (I think Arenanet should cut people off after a while) than someone running a dungeon too many times.

Draco.2806:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

That’s just a theory based on the assumption that any random number rolled enough times will average close to an expected number.

Right.

I would like to draw your attention to the fact the Law of Large Numbers is an established fact, not a theory.

This is actually kind of a big deal. It’s the foundation of the entire field of Science.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

If you get a Precursor in your first 100 attempts, your personal views would be that RNG is favorable, thus that is the average for that player. If another person attempts 5,000 forgings, and yet doesn’t get a Precursor, their personal view would be that it’s impossible.

Yep.

That’s what my whole point is about: if you select a very low probability, it will take an enormous amount of attempts before it averages out and becomes “fair”.

A six-sided die is the most common example, and it’s something you can test at home with some pen and paper. It’s a random roll. You don’t know where it’ll end up. But if you keep track of the numbers, it will come closer and closer to average the more you roll – by 100th attempt, it’s most likely you’ll have to keep track using decimal places after 3.

It’s totally random, but somehow it averages out.

That’s the whole point of random numbers in games: sooner or later, they average out and become “fair”. Those “fair” numbers is what’s ultimately used in all the calculations and all the discussions of combat balance and item rarity. The problem is, when you’ve set the probability too low in your estimations of rarity of something, it might take a couple thousand years for it to get to that point – and until then, it’s all up to luck.

And luck isn’t fair.

You need to apply the theorem from a game wide perspective, not from an individual player’s one. If Dusk had a predetermined chance to drop at .3%, that will average out through all servers combined. When you take the individual, and place him in the RNG calculation, it’s then up to luck if he draw the right drop. The item still maintains its rarity, and RNG helps to keep it at such a level.

So RNG is working as intended.

Anthony.7219:

Karma, Laurels, non-binding loot sold on AH, these all provide alternative ways to get gear with the STATS you want

Quite right. Thankfully it’s relatively easy to have decent gear in GW2.

This doesn’t mean the problem goes away, just that it’s smaller in scale. Where it really rears its ugly head are Rare, Exotic, Ascended, Precursor, Unique, Crafting Material and other such drops which significantly affect player income if nothing else.

Anthony.7219:

It is gambling, and it is working as intended.

Well, I’m working on the assumption that this isn’t the intention because that would be horrible and cruel.

Anthony.7219:

…and goal for top-end players to work towards.

If you do assume it’s gambling though, the “goal” and “work” parts go out of the window.

Random is random.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

You need to apply the theorem from a game wide perspective, not from an individual player’s one.

But you do. In the end, the whole point of the game is the player playing it, no?

Smooth Penguin.5294:

The item still maintains its rarity, and RNG helps to keep it at such a level. So RNG is working as intended.

Quite right. Across thousands of players doing thousands of tasks thousands times a day, it will average out. (Maybe.)

What’s the point of that though? Why would you do this?

LOL, come on folks, I’ll give you an example from before (some) of your time.

The game: Star Wars Galaxies. The year: I dunno, 1999 or something?

Mechanic? Max out a character with the promise of possibly being able to become an (unavailable hard-mode (1 death only)) jedi.

People were playing like mad, maxing out a character, wiping the character, maxing out again. Entire servers went without seeing a single Jedi EVER.

What was the point? Couldn’t everyone become a Jedi? Nope… but it kept people busy.

ITS A GAME.

The whole point is to keep you busy. The whole point of keeping you busy is to keep the servers full so the game is more attractive to new buyers, and so the gem store has customers.

Making the item available for a bajillion karma isn’t going to accomplish the same thing a single RNG is accomplishing.

Anthony.7219:

ITS A GAME.

The whole point is to keep you busy. The whole point of keeping you busy is to keep the servers full so the game is more attractive to new buyers, and so the gem store has customers.

So basically a glorified slot machine.

That’s why I wasn’t working on that assumption. GW2 was advertised as “different”, after all.

(Doesn’t mean it is…)

Draco.2806:

Anthony.7219:

ITS A GAME.

The whole point is to keep you busy. The whole point of keeping you busy is to keep the servers full so the game is more attractive to new buyers, and so the gem store has customers.

So basically a glorified slot machine.

That’s why I wasn’t working on that assumption. GW2 was advertised as “different”, after all.

(Doesn’t mean it is…)

99.9% of the game IS different.

You’ve just finished that part!

Draco.2806:

Smooth Penguin.5294:

You need to apply the theorem from a game wide perspective, not from an individual player’s one.

But you do. In the end, the whole point of the game is the player playing it, no?

Smooth Penguin.5294:

The item still maintains its rarity, and RNG helps to keep it at such a level. So RNG is working as intended.

Quite right. Across thousands of players doing thousands of tasks thousands times a day, it will average out. (Maybe.)

What’s the point of that though? Why would you do this?

You want to be sure an item’s value isn’t diluted with the availability of so many all at once. Precursors are desired because they are rare, and needed for Legendary weapons. Without RNG, there would be no rarity, and no demand for the item, since everyone would have the same thing.

Fortunately, there are ways around RNG. The Trading Post provides a way for players to trade goods on an open market. If RNG isn’t your thing, you can buy it and skip the whole “random” talk.

Anthony.7219:

99.9% of the game IS different.

Down with the 0,1%!

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Without RNG, there would be no rarity, and no demand for the item, since everyone would have the same thing.

As my original point, that’s the whole point of RNG drops in games: to maintain rarity of indivisible items. The problem is, beyond a certain degree of chance, you’re no longer maintaining an intended degree of rarity, but leaving it up to sheer luck.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

The Trading Post provides a way for players to trade goods on an open market. If RNG isn’t your thing, you can buy it and skip the whole “random” talk.

Yep. Trading Post and Crafting are typical way of mitigating effects of random loot.

But they don’t solve the problem, the just smooth the edges. In fact, there’s no guarantee that precursors and other such rare items are anywhere close to being as rare as intended. Remember, the lower the chances, the more it’ll take to average out.

And, still the question is, what’s the point of all that? Why?

It’s there to screw with you

Requiem.8769:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tWtvrPTbQ_c

1:00 is most relevant.

Excellent video, now if only a few thousand players would send this video to Mike O’brien’s inbox, he would be forced to to consider its contents.

Are you reading this Me O’brien. There are more effective and satisfying ways to get players to play, stick with and love your game, than the current methods you guys are using

IndigoSundown.5419:

You are assuming, though, that randomized loot is (or should be) the intention. What are the odds that ANet employs at least one person who is conversant with statistics, and that they understand what the system they decided to use means with regard to obtaining anything via RNG? I think they knew exactly what they were doing, and the current system is working as intended.

That may be true, although a lot of what I see in the game design makes me wonder if they really do think things through to their logical conclusion. If true then it speaks very ill of the developers.

Draco.2806:

And, still the question is, what’s the point of all that? Why?

I guess I gotta just come out and say it. It’s a gate.

If you let the water drip out of the jug, the water lasts longer. If you take off the cap and turn the jug over, the water empties out.