Guild Wars 2

Does anyone know the approximate drop rate for the Winter’s Heart Infusion? I think it’s a really cool skin that I would love to have.

I’ve become pretty good at the JP, that I will be able to have enough presents to either complete the Festive Imbiber, with a chance to get the infusion, or to just sell off the presents.

Currently, Infusion is for Purchase for 930g, and the presents sell for 6.9s, so I would need approximately 15,857 presents to pay for it. Or use those presents to complete the AP (approx 12,500) and hope I get the infusion. Does anybody know any rates for it?

Thanks!

According to this: https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/5jku67/science_drop_rates_from_80k_wintersday_gifts/

It’s an estimated 1 in 100,000 chance

Oh and I’d like to add, following market trends from previous years wintersday gifts will keep lowering in price as the event goes on. Sell the presents immediately, don’t hoard them!

It’s almost always the case that you are better off selling bags and buying the 1-2 items you want from them separately. There are variations as the market evolves, but on any given day, that’s almost always the case.

Open bags if you like the thrill you get just before, anticipating a good drop (and you don’t mind dealing with disposing of all the contents for which you don’t have a use).

Small note about the odds above: 1:100k is an estimate based on too little data (plenty of gifts, not enough actual drops — posters might have gotten lucky, unlucky, or extremely lucky or unlucky). If the odds are 1:100k, you’d have to open 80k gifts to have roughly a 50-50 chance of getting an infusion.

The infusion is currently running at 800 (buy offers) to 1,250 gold (sell offers). 1250 gold is enough to buy less than 20,000 gifts, far less than what you need to get a 50-50 chance.

tl;dr sell your gifts and use the funds to buy the infusion; let someone else pay the premium to try out their luck.

Well in order to make the infusion valuable it has to be extremely rare like that.

Personally I could quite easily farm 1000 gifts in a day, as that’s only 100 completions of the JP, which is 300 per hour if you are an average skill at it. If there are 100 other players doing that, it means one infusion added to the TP per day. I think we both know there are more than 100 people farming it, not to mention the many thousands added from casual JP’ers and other rewards.

1/100,000 or 0.001% sounds very reasonable / likely to me.

Black Iris Flowers.3418:

It’s an estimated 1 in 100,000 chance

So you’re telling there’s a chance! Yeah!

That sounds like a bit of a bummer, but I understand. If it were 1:10,000 everyone who completed the Festive Imbiber AP would get one. Now I will have to decide if I want the infusion or the Winter’s Presence shoulder skin… darn decisions! Maybe I can do the JP enough for both! I can farm about 1,200 a night… we’ll see.

Thanks guys.