im bad at sarcasm
gambling for a pre. some questions
How much are you prepared to lose before you get your first precursor? The odds are really, really low. People who use industrial production methods to forge them can go 12,000 attempts (yes, twelve thousand) without a pre. According to Nugkill (who has posted the most data about this), the chance for a precursor from rares remains ~0.125% or 1 in 800.
Some of Nugkill’s more recent data reminds us that you don’t get twice the odds for forging greatswords; it’s the same chance (divided between the two GS).
Assuming the 1:800 odds, there’s over a 50% chance that you can make 500 attempts (2,000 rares) without getting a precursor. To have a 95% chance of getting at least one, you’d have to try 2,500 times (10,000 rares).
Put in simpler terms:
- Forging for precursors is profitable if you can afford to spend 10,000 rares.
- Otherwise, it’s ultimately cheaper (a lot cheaper) to sell your rares and save your money to buy the precursor outright.
- Some people (such as myself) like to forge rares (or even exotics) just for kicks; we don’t really expect to get anything ‘good’ from the transaction, least of all a profit. I spend the gold for the “entertainment value,” not any investment value.
John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”
(edited by Illconceived Was Na.9781)
How much are you prepared to lose before you get your first precursor? The odds are really, really low. People who use industrial production methods to forge them can go 12,000 attempts (yes, twelve thousand) without a pre. According to Nugkill (who has posted the most data about this), the chance for a precursor from rares remains ~0.125% or 1 in 800.
Some of Nugkill’s more recent data reminds us that you don’t get twice the odds for forging greatswords; it’s the same chance (divided between the two GS).
Assuming the 1:800 odds, there’s over a 50% chance that you can make 500 attempts (2,000 rares) without getting a precursor. To have a 95% chance of getting at least one, you’d have to try 2,500 times (10,000 rares).
Put in simpler terms:
- Forging for precursors is profitable if you can afford to spend 10,000 rares.
- Otherwise, it’s ultimately cheaper (a lot cheaper) to sell your rares and save your money to buy the precursor outright.
- Some people (such as myself) like to forge rares (or even exotics) just for kicks; we don’t really expect to get anything ‘good’ from the transaction, least of all a profit. I spend the gold for the “entertainment value,” not any investment value.
yeah i should probably just start saving. so far both of my friends got given precursors free. not all of us are so fortunate. so far i think im 1000 gold negative from gambling. i had gotten one but i had to buy season 2 (basically required for central tyria masteries) and gambled the rest. so im broke xD
im bad at sarcasm
Many Pres are quite cheap at the moment so if you are not really lucky it is cheaper to just buy them.
I always MF 4 rares or 4 exotic weapons (or 3 exotics + mf stone) and have gotten 6 or 7 pre’s over the past year or so. Once I received 2 pre’s within a couple days, then the next came months later.
I’ve received pre’s using both of those scenarios. All I’d suggest is to do that and pray to the RNG gods.
I always MF 4 rares or 4 exotic weapons (or 3 exotics + mf stone) and have gotten 6 or 7 pre’s over the past year or so. Once I received 2 pre’s within a couple days, then the next came months later.
I’ve received pre’s using both of those scenarios. All I’d suggest is to do that and pray to the RNG gods.
Someone is always going to get lucky, but many more someones are going to have average luck, and more than a few will have horrid luck. As long as you’re prepared to get nothing nearly 100% of the time, forging can be fun.
John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”
I’ve received like 5 or so pre’s from forging greatswords over the course of the past month, and 11 or 12 since I started forge gambling in August. I think in total I’ve crafted 2,750 rare krait greatswords.
Definitely craft them from as early in the stage as cost allows. For example, it may be cheaper to buy mithril plated dowels instead of crafting those, as the wood is pretty costly. It’s cheaper, however, to buy mithril ore and craft the sword blades/hilts, than it is to buy ingots or the blades/hilts pre-made.
It’s a gamble, but not with such terrible odds since you’re more manufacturing luck rather than strictly relying on it through the odd forge here and there. I consider it an investment more than a gamble, really. If you can’t afford to lose the gold invested into this method, don’t do it. If you CAN, go for it. You may even get a precursor within the first hundred attempts, at which point you can sell off the remaining materials and recoup a lot of your cost PLUS come out with the item you were hoping to find.