Guild Wars 2

https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19714-seasoned-wood-plank

Discuss.

Interesting, it was at 0 supply for a moment. That is a rare sight for such a common high supply item.
On a related note, anyone know why ancient wood has been exploding since last month?
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19712-ancient-wood-plank

Malediktus.3740:

Interesting, it was at 0 supply for a moment. That is a rare sight for such a common high supply item.
On a related note, anyone know why ancient wood has been exploding since last month?
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19712-ancient-wood-plank

Everyone making Staves for their Revenant or Druid or bows for their Hunter? Maybe just fewer people are grinding Elder Wood for foxfire, and so fewer people are promoting elder into ancient?

I am thinking of something else. It started at the same time they revealed the guardian elite spec which showed the guardian using azure flame skin. azureflame needs 3000 ancient wood logs (4 stacks of ancient wood planks). Could that be an explaination? Not sure if the demand for that bow increased enough to make ancient wood spike.

People don’t commonly spend much time in areas rich in T3 wood (either from gathering or from salvaging). It’s not so surprising that the total supply dropped below 20k and at that point, I can imagine someone thinking they could try to corner the market. It looks like this wasn’t the first attempt.

Of course, lots of people have all sorts of mats squirreled away for rainy days, so I doubt this represents a change to the equilibrium.

I’m equally sure someone will try the same thing with another mat or three at some point.

Malediktus.3740:

Interesting, it was at 0 supply for a moment. That is a rare sight for such a common high supply item.
On a related note, anyone know why ancient wood has been exploding since last month?
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19712-ancient-wood-plank

Nearly all common mats have been rising in value and declining in supply for quite some time now.
My guess is that its a combination of new demand from new players from the last 10$ sales and less mats being farmed.

I would hazard a wild guess that the gold transfer changes might have something to do with it, culling the farmbot population even further.

Wanze.8410:

Malediktus.3740:

Interesting, it was at 0 supply for a moment. That is a rare sight for such a common high supply item.
On a related note, anyone know why ancient wood has been exploding since last month?
https://www.gw2tp.com/item/19712-ancient-wood-plank

Nearly all common mats have been rising in value and declining in supply for quite some time now.
My guess is that its a combination of new demand from new players from the last 10$ sales and less mats being farmed.

I would hazard a wild guess that the gold transfer changes might have something to do with it, culling the farmbot population even further.

hmm that is an interesting point, i do wonder how the supply/demand of common items would look in a MMO that somehow managed to not have ANY farm bots at all (yeah yeah i know a dream world), and how much of the supply would actually come from legitimate players

Another interesting point is that players seem to be more content with high wood prices compared to silk. Everybody is moaning about the high silk prices (2.30s atm) while t2-t4 wood logs go for 2.20-2.90s atm.

And that wood logs are spiking in price despite them being directly farmable. Makes you wonder, if silk prices would really go down, if they introduced silk nodes that are farmable.

Probably not. Its more comfortable to farm Gold than running around in low to mid level maps to farm logs.

So it moved from 7.6s to 9.3s in the end. I call that a price correction. Basically the previous price was below what the market could support and was prevented from rising due to the undercutting nature of new supply. Once flushed out it is now finding it’s new support price. It’s down 50c from 12 hours ago so the price still hasn’t stabilized yet.

Some will cry that this is inflation or price manipulation but players can still go harvest seasoned logs, convert them to planks and undercut.

Behellagh.1468:

So it moved from 7.6s to 9.3s in the end. I call that a price correction. Basically the previous price was below what the market could support and was prevented from rising due to the undercutting nature of new supply. Once flushed out it is now finding it’s new support price. It’s down 50c from 12 hours ago so the price still hasn’t stabilized yet.

Some will cry that this is inflation or price manipulation but players can still go harvest seasoned logs, convert them to planks and undercut.

And even if it was “manipulation” by some few, rich people, I wouldnt really call it a success.

Just look at Black Lion chest. Anet needs to put a limit on how much of an item people can buy. Some people are ordering tens of thousands and making the price rise.

Xillllix.3485:

Just look at Black Lion chest. Anet needs to put a limit on how much of an item people can buy. Some people are ordering tens of thousands and making the price rise.

Tens of thousands of players, who sold their bl chests for a higher price, might disagree.

Ordering doesn’t make the price rise, buying out supply does. BLC went from 2.7 million supply 1st week of April to 130K now. And the price didn’t start to rise until over 2.5 million were bought at 60c a pop. That’s over a 15,000 gold purchase and needing 10,000 slots to hold them.

Selling at roughly 3-4x the cost supply hasn’t risen above 200K since then. So someone is playing De Beers with something that’s worthless without pricey keys. If they turn a profit in the end, good for them but the investment was quite high.

Wanze.8410:

Another interesting point is that players seem to be more content with high wood prices compared to silk. Everybody is moaning about the high silk prices (2.30s atm) while t2-t4 wood logs go for 2.20-2.90s atm.

You don’t need anywhere near as many logs for making ascended weapons as you do cloth scraps for making ascended armor. Because the logs can be farmed directly, buying them is a matter of convenience for the 1%. Buying cloth is pretty much a matter of necessity for everyone.

I made a spreadsheet of the mat requirements to make ascended armor and weapons for my current five characters. It requires, for example, 5,800 elder planks but 14,500 bolts of silk. Given a few months, I was able to farm the necessary elder logs myself since the supply is plentiful. In the same amount of time I’ve barely made a dent in the amount of silk scraps needed to make that many bolts. If I don’t buy cloth scraps, getting five sets of ascended armor is not a long-term project, it’s a multi-generational endeavor. “Come on, kids. Let’s go salvage some cloth for grandpaw’s birthday. You know he’d like that.”

BrettM.9062:

Wanze.8410:

Another interesting point is that players seem to be more content with high wood prices compared to silk. Everybody is moaning about the high silk prices (2.30s atm) while t2-t4 wood logs go for 2.20-2.90s atm.

You don’t need anywhere near as many logs for making ascended weapons as you do cloth scraps for making ascended armor. Because the logs can be farmed directly, buying them is a matter of convenience for the 1%. Buying cloth is pretty much a matter of necessity for everyone.

I made a spreadsheet of the mat requirements to make ascended armor and weapons for my current five characters. It requires, for example, 5,800 elder planks but 14,500 bolts of silk. Given a few months, I was able to farm the necessary elder logs myself since the supply is plentiful. In the same amount of time I’ve barely made a dent in the amount of silk scraps needed to make that many bolts. If I don’t buy cloth scraps, getting five sets of ascended armor is not a long-term project, it’s a multi-generational endeavor. “Come on, kids. Let’s go salvage some cloth for grandpaw’s birthday. You know he’d like that.”

I wasnt talking about elder wood because compared to t2-t4 wood and silk, elder wood has a huge aditional sink in crafting rare weapons for the forge.

I was just pointing out that people could now go out and chop wood, sell it and buy a silk scrap for every log the chop.

But people seem to have little interest in that.

Behellagh.1468:

Some will cry that this is inflation or price manipulation but players can still go harvest seasoned logs, convert them to planks and undercut.

Haha .. my main home in the last weeks was already again Dredgehaunt Cliffs instead
of Timberline Falls. Sadly i had no time to play today and yesterday and missed the
highest prices i’ve ever seen i think. It has been to 2.50 now and then but 2.90 ?

If now also only Rosemary goes back to over 10s ^^

I’m leaning towards “less people farming materials within a certain level range”, impacting supply.

Tobias Trueflight.8350:

I’m leaning towards “less people farming materials within a certain level range”, impacting supply.

The question for me is more why it is sometimes over 2s then goes down suddenly
to nearly 1s and then 2-3 months later again rises to over 2s.

I remember it was long time over 2s after we got ascended weapons, and then when
we got ascended armor it went down and was for very long time under 1,50s and
in April the first time again went over 2s.

That shouldn’t have caused the drain from 11,700 to 0 in 18 hours.

Behellagh.1468:

That shouldn’t have caused the drain from 11,700 to 0 in 18 hours.

Whats so absurd in 650 planks sold every hour?

lol, that steady ramp down to 0 certainly raises an eyebrow. It could have been natural forces, but improbable. Just makes one wonder what they’re planning to do with 11k planks Exotics/rares for forgekitten?

That they weren’t being replenished and the supply was completely drained to 0.

In the days before this supply fluctuated between 16,500 and 5,500. It’s as if one or more regular suppliers took the day off.

And before supply went to 0 the price leaped to nearly 30s each and there were still 300 left in supply so there were likely others with silly prices well over a gold. It takes effort and a lot of coin to completely drain the supply of an item.

Wow .. the supply is really low if i compare it with iron ore. Never really looked at those numbers.

dlonie.6547:

lol, that steady ramp down to 0 certainly raises an eyebrow. It could have been natural forces, but improbable. Just makes one wonder what they’re planning to do with 11k planks Exotics/rares for forgekitten?

I dont think you can craft any rare/exotic weapons with seasoned wood logs that have the chance to yield a pre when forged.

I dont say that there definately werent any people who might have stocked up on seasoned wood planks while the supply went down from 11k to 0. If I was aware that supply was going down like this, i would probably have bought a stack or 2 as well, to refine all my globs of residue into spiritwood.

The first recent price surge already came in May, when supply went down from 60k to 23k and prices went up by over 50%.
After that, supply replenished quite quickly for a bit. Presumably through salvaged seasoned wood from weapons, which was available cheaply. After that, farmers might have held on to their planks, rather than undercutting each other, so it wasnt neccessarily 11k planks that got sold more within 18 hours but 11k less planks posted within 18 hours.

Me and my luck .. finally could farm some wood .. set some into the TP for 2.89 and
5 minutes later it looks like this

Beldin.5498:

Wow .. the supply is really low if i compare it with iron ore. Never really looked at those numbers.

Iron ore and ingots lost a good 50% of their supply since mid May, just like basically any other common mat (with a few exceptions). Same goes for deldrimor/spiritwood/damask.

For me thats a good indication that there isnt any manipulation going on but regular supply/demand swinging the other way.

On the added demand side i would suspect an influx of new accounts created during the 75% off sales. If those accounts are alt accounts from veteran players, they might chose to level their characters via crafting (additional demand) dungeons runs or eotm (less supply generated compared to using map completion to level).

On the diminshing supply side I would expect the gold transfer limits that got introduced in April to at least have some kind of effect, another ban wave for farm bots could also have happened, or account rollbacks went down in volume, so basically steady supply that was obtained through nefarious means, went down.

Beldin.5498:

Me and my luck .. finally could farm some wood .. set some into the TP for 2.89 and
5 minutes later it looks like this

While the price for planks still is beyond 9s. I dont know why people dont refine their stuff before selling it. The players you want to sell your listings to are usually the impatient kind (thats why they buy directly). And if they are the impatient kind they are more likely to buy planks directly, rather than saving 10c on logs and then refine themselves.

Don’t worry, there aren’t that many units priced less than yours. But 2.89s is still pretty high, it’s above GW2Spidy 24-hour average of 2.74s and that plot seems to be leveling out.

Looking at the GW2TP chart over the last day most sales (when the low sale price rises) seems to be in the 2.65-2.75s range.

Wanze.8410:

Beldin.5498:

Me and my luck .. finally could farm some wood .. set some into the TP for 2.89 and
5 minutes later it looks like this

While the price for planks still is beyond 9s. I dont know why people dont refine their stuff before selling it. The players you want to sell your listings to are usually the impatient kind (thats why they buy directly). And if they are the impatient kind they are more likely to buy planks directly, rather than saving 10c on logs and then refine themselves.

Even buying logs (by putting in bids) and refining them to planks you can still get 10% profit right now posting them for sale.

Wanze.8410:

Beldin.5498:

Me and my luck .. finally could farm some wood .. set some into the TP for 2.89 and
5 minutes later it looks like this

While the price for planks still is beyond 9s. I dont know why people dont refine their stuff before selling it. The players you want to sell your listings to are usually the impatient kind (thats why they buy directly). And if they are the impatient kind they are more likely to buy planks directly, rather than saving 10c on logs and then refine themselves.

I normally refine .. i already had set 57 planks into the TP and was also undercut
by a lot when i farmed my first new wood, and so i tryed to directly sell the
unrefined wood.

Woodplanks mostly also don’t sell that fast as Steel or Darksteel so i often mix
between selling planks and logs when i farm a lot of wood

They are seasoned planks. Its either beavers or termites.