Guild Wars 2

Is my account flagged or something? i was the one of the many who are opposed to ascended items and i decided to get ascended rings by grinding the fotm. ive been playing since 3 weeks ago with a lot of replayed dailies and so far i got only 1 ring drop. and i hear people who got 7-8 or more rings already. am i flagged because of my stance? was my rng modified to have the smallest percentage chance? i am gated at level 22 because parties want me to have +15 ar. i have only +10 ar and i can’t mindlessly grind for 250 ectos just to give my prototype capacitor +5 ar.

regards,

Im over two weeks into the fractals Lvl10+ and still just the one ring. We’re just the unlucky ones…dont worry about it too much though as you can do Lvl20 pretty easy with just 10AR until you reach the maw where youll definitely go down, but be res’d in no time due to the ease of the fight.

My main issue is the skill level of the PUG parties I go with- 75% of them fail and ive been the last one standing in all of the failed runs.

i trust how luck works in real life. but not RNG. if some people are getting 8 rings at 9 tries and us 1 ring out of 15 tries, there’s something fishy going on.

So we’ve got the Server Status Conspiracy, now the “I’m getting screwed out of Ascended Gear because I complained on the forums” Conspiracy. This community is setting new lows every day.

The short answer, OP, is that no there is no conspiracy against you. It’s just bad luck and Arenanet already said that they realize RNG was a bad system to use and they will be changing it.

don’t ascribe “bad luck” in an RNG. it’s either your % chance is small or % chance is high.

alcopaul.2156:

don’t ascribe “bad luck” in an RNG. it’s either your % chance is small or % chance is high.

what?

you know how luck and chance work, right?

Do you realize how ridiculous your claim sounds? I’m not a fan of Arenanet’s constant blunders but for them to go out of their way to flag you is pretty kitten crazy.

alcedonia.7831:

alcopaul.2156:

don’t ascribe “bad luck” in an RNG. it’s either your % chance is small or % chance is high.

what?

you know how luck and chance work, right?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck

I searched for “random number generator” and it was not there.

Luck has three aspects³⁴ which make it distinct from chance or probability.⁵

Luck can be good or bad.⁶
Luck can be accident or chance.⁷
Luck applies to an entity.

i get what you say. if rng doesn’t work well for you, your luck is bad. otherwise your luck is good. but luck as a concept is not confined to numbers. luck is more broader than that. black cat, bad luck. so where’s rng in that?. so i don’t ascribe luck to a computer generated probability.

but if your rng is tainted, that’s a different story. it’s not luck anymore, it’s called being screwed.

Id say ive got bad luck at the moment but its not magic and I very much doubt its a conspiracy! The way I see it, if RNG is ‘against me’ at the moment then sooner or later it’ll be ‘for me’. Its just % chance and it’ll even itself out after a while (mathematicians be quiet!)

Then again…in the runs that a friend has got 9 rings compared to my 1 ring, ive got 7 exotics (albeit Account bound) compared to her 1 so its swings and roundabouts.

Thereon.3495:

Id say ive got bad luck at the moment but its not magic and I very much doubt its a conspiracy! The way I see it, if RNG is ‘against me’ at the moment then sooner or later it’ll be ‘for me’. Its just % chance and it’ll even itself out after a while (mathematicians be quiet!)

Then again…in the runs that a friend has got 9 rings compared to my 1 ring, ive got 7 exotics (albeit Account bound) compared to her 1 so its swings and roundabouts.

but your exotic loots are prolly affected by your high magic find and she has prolly 1 to 0 magic find. so you have an uneven chances. you’re INDEED more lucky errr prone to looting exotics because you have HIGHER chance of looting exotics.

the chest pops out of everyones ui and gives a fixed loot – fractal relics and bag of lies, err gold and the ring, which is either a 0 or a 1 (and this rng for sure even fragments the chance of having a 1).but still, no factor that can aggregate your chance. so we assume that no one has higher chance. everybody got base chance. yet thing is people get 7 out of 8 tries and people get 1 out of 14 tries. was that bad luck? even a dog can smell bad luck from this kitten.

Vasham.2408:

So we’ve got the Server Status Conspiracy, now the “I’m getting screwed out of Ascended Gear because I complained on the forums” Conspiracy. This community is setting new lows every day.

The short answer, OP, is that no there is no conspiracy against you. It’s just bad luck and Arenanet already said that they realize RNG was a bad system to use and they will be changing it.

I think it’s a reduction in developer communication and lack of response to consumer issues, combined with a perceived change in development direction, that promotes mistrust and guides customers to imagine nefarious explanations due to a lack of reasonable explanations.

Plus, it’s not paranoia if they really are out to get you, and it’s not a conspiracy theory if it’s a conspiracy fact. And tin-foil is cheaper than gw2 gold.

He is not luckier because he has 50% to get an item, and gets the item 25% of the time compared to you if you have a 5% chance to get an item, and you get it 10% of the time.

You are lucky. He is unlucky. Even though he gets more than twice the drop rate as you.

That’s luck.

I empathize with your situation. But lashing out and accusing anet of ludicrous things like that in your OP makes me unable to take you seriously.

Really. You’re not worth their time to screw over like that. They have hundreds of thousands of other players to worry about. Not to mention there’s no benefit to screwing your and only your rng weightage. It’s not going to instigate you to spend money on the gem store, will it?

alcedonia.7831:

He is not luckier because he has 50% to get an item, and gets the item 25% of the time compared to you if you have a 5% chance to get an item, and you get it 10% of the time.

You are lucky. He is unlucky. Even though he gets more than twice the drop rate as you.

That’s luck.

I empathize with your situation. But lashing out and accusing anet of ludicrous things like that in your OP makes me unable to take you seriously.

Really. You’re not worth their time to screw over like that. They have hundreds of thousands of other players to worry about. Not to mention there’s no benefit to screwing your and only your rng weightage. It’s not going to instigate you to spend money on the gem store, will it?

i don’t say im the only one. prolly there are other people who are too and are just thinking that “hey, my rng was not working for me. prolly it’s just the rng.”

so to you who has no or 1 rings after gazillion of tries and you happen to be vocal on your anti-ascended stance on the forums – bad luck or being screwed? think (of being screwed).

alcedonia.7831:

He is not luckier because he has 50% to get an item, and gets the item 25% of the time compared to you if you have a 5% chance to get an item, and you get it 10% of the time.

You are lucky. He is unlucky. Even though he gets more than twice the drop rate as you.

That’s luck.

no one is lucky and unlucky in a scenario where the other has a higher percentage of getting it. to be lucky and unlucky, both persons should have an equal chance of getting it.

i would say that luck can be ascribed on getting a ring. but i posited that the rng can be tainted and if this is so, luck won’t work anymore. all you have is bias.

do you know why i don’t believe in random number generators as a basis of being lucky and unlucky? because they have a fixed seed.

If i have 90% chance to win, but i only win 50% of time i’m not considered unlucky? If you have 10% chance to win, but you win 50% of the time, you’re not considered lucky?
So because we both win half the time we’re just as lucky or unlucky as each other?

What????

I think you’re confusing yourself with your own mental gymnastics.

You were just unlucky. It’s consistent with statistical probability.

And yes, rng is inherently not random. Because it’s based on a seed. But for all practical purposes, it mimics true randomness well enough so that there is no practical difference.

What you’re claiming is that you’re the exception. That the rng assigned to you is weighted in your disfavor. Like for example while using a six sided die, you only win when you roll a 1. While other people win ehen they roll a 1, 2 or 3.

There is no reason for anet to single you out like that. You are overestimating your importance to them. They have way bigger fish to fry than screwing over a guy’s drops because he grumbled on their forums.

That is a ridiculous claim.

Again, you were just unlucky. Take it on the chin and move on. You’re doing the equivalent of a poker player going on tilt because he got bad beat three times in a row.

alcedonia.7831:

If i have 90% chance to win, but i only win 50% of time i’m not considered unlucky? If you have 10% chance to win, but you win 50% of the time, you’re not considered lucky?
So because we both win half the time we’re just as lucky or unlucky as each other?

What????

just switch the numbers and that’s what im talking about.

or ill do it for you.

if we both have 50% chance to win and you win 90% of the time and i win 10% of the time, you’re luckier than me. plain and simple.

alcedonia.7831:

What you’re claiming is that you’re the exception. That the rng assigned to you is weighted in your disfavor. Like for example while using a six sided die, you only win when you roll a 1. While other people win ehen they roll a 1, 2 or 3.

There is no reason for anet to single you out like that. You are overestimating your importance to them. They have way bigger fish to fry than screwing over a guy’s drops because he grumbled on their forums.

That is a ridiculous claim.

Again, you were just unlucky. Take it on the chin and move on. You’re doing the equivalent of a poker player going on tilt because he got bad beat three times in a row.

are you oblivious to the fact that drop rates can be adjusted at will? if they can twitch numbers at will, they can certainly do it to their rng, customizing it for those who thought that a.net was stupid or namecalled for adding ascended gear.

hey, it’s not ridiculous as claiming that players can manipulate the rng from their clients using hacks.

anet doing server side mods is very realistic than players programatically adjusting the server side rng to get lucky.

Why do you progresspoeple whine about your porgresscontent. You demanded it, so deal with it!

alcopaul.2156:

alcedonia.7831:

What you’re claiming is that you’re the exception. That the rng assigned to you is weighted in your disfavor. Like for example while using a six sided die, you only win when you roll a 1. While other people win ehen they roll a 1, 2 or 3.

There is no reason for anet to single you out like that. You are overestimating your importance to them. They have way bigger fish to fry than screwing over a guy’s drops because he grumbled on their forums.

That is a ridiculous claim.

Again, you were just unlucky. Take it on the chin and move on. You’re doing the equivalent of a poker player going on tilt because he got bad beat three times in a row.

are you oblivious to the fact that drop rates can be adjusted at will? if they can twitch numbers at will, they can certainly do it to their rng, customizing it for those who thought that a.net was stupid or namecalled for adding ascended gear.

hey, it’s not ridiculous as claiming that players can manipulate the rng from their clients using hacks.

anet doing server side mods is very realistic than players programatically adjusting the server side rng to get lucky.

yes, they can do that. BUT WHAT IS THE POINT? there is no reason for them to do so.

you, good sir, IMHO, are a troll. you make deliberatly inflammatory comments to try to upset others. /ignore

kitanas.3596:

yes, they can do that. BUT WHAT IS THE POINT? there is no reason for them to do so.

and this is where the “conspiracy” go.

1.) ascended haters give a.net a bad rep by bad mouthing them in forums, telling that they’re liars because of their betrayal of manifesto.
2.) prospective buyers and prolly investors are monitoring at their cashcow
3.) see negativity on the forums.
4.) (ncsoft stocks drop), negative review in other fansites
5.) these haters still play the game coz its buy to play till whenever
5.a) (so what will they do to them, asks a.net coz they threw tomatoes at us)
6.) punish them and reward the fanboys
7.) manipulate the droprates
8.) haters get crap and low chance till they become frustrated and quit out of frustration
9.) fanboys remain, getting exotics and 8 rings out of 9 tries.
9.a) haters finally leave.
10.) all rainbows and joy in the forums coz the haters who decided to still play the game and got frustrated are out.

alcopaul.2156:

are you oblivious to the fact that drop rates can be adjusted at will? if they can twitch numbers at will, they can certainly do it to their rng, customizing it for those who thought that a.net was stupid or namecalled for adding ascended gear.

Because, obviously, everybody working for ANet is an immature brat, right? From what I can tell, there is 1 ring per run, so everybody has 20% chance to get it. Now, the game has some system in place to decide who does and what stats come with it. BUT for the player it’s pure luck. So, yes, when you don’t get the ring, youw ere just as unlucky as the other 3 people in your party who didn’t get the ring. Besides, for every player that gets 8 rings out of 9 tries, there are 32 players who didn’t get a ring at that run. Bell curve and all…

Rng isn’t really random.

alcopaul.2156:

i trust how luck works in real life. but not RNG. if some people are getting 8 rings at 9 tries and us 1 ring out of 15 tries, there’s something fishy going on.

it’s not luck when they can manipulate the numbers +- luck and randomness is a myth in mmo’s something they tell the community to make them go hush hush go to sleep stop asking relevant questions.

kKagari.6804:

Do you realize how ridiculous your claim sounds? I’m not a fan of Arenanet’s constant blunders but for them to go out of their way to flag you is pretty kitten crazy.

Oh, I wouldn’t put it past them. Remember, this is the same company that banned a person for cooking live on stream.

Columba.9730:

Rng isn’t really random.

It’s close enough.

alcopaul.2156:

just switch the numbers and that’s what im talking about.

or ill do it for you.

if we both have 50% chance to win and you win 90% of the time and i win 10% of the time, you’re luckier than me. plain and simple.

That is not how it works. A square is a rectangle. A rectangle isn’t a square.

I can’t help but notice your ‘math teacher’ title in your signature. I am honestly horrified.

alcopaul.2156:

kitanas.3596:

yes, they can do that. BUT WHAT IS THE POINT? there is no reason for them to do so.

and this is where the “conspiracy” go

Snip

I give you a 10/10 for mental gymnastics.

i have never won the Lottery in RL, have i been “flagged” for that time in the pub that i mentioned that all lotteries were a con?

i don’t think so.

I was one of the most disgusted (and still am) with the new tierS introduced (many more than one people haven t realized yet).

I had some problems to get a ring at first, but now i have maybe 8 ._.

I think something in rng is not working properly because i hear most people struggle to get one and after the first, they get a lot…but its not flagging.

Mimizu.7340:

i have never won the Lottery in RL, have i been “flagged” for that time in the pub that i mentioned that all lotteries were a con?

Yeah, and the ones that win multiple times are fan-boys.

Thank you for the good laugh!

FYI the loot tables a modifiable yes… associated with the monsters/chests/whatever, thus affecting everyone when modified. There is no way they would have created loot tables associated to each player. No point and way too much work.

Edit: Now that I think about it, they could apply to you a permanent DR debuff actually…

But seriously, unless you have a personal ennemy who is dev at Anet, they are not even going to waste 2 minutes to do such a pointless thing when they have much more important things to do.

Also when you “hear people have drop 7-8 rings out of 9 runs”, well they didn’t. Just lying / exagerating. Otherwise if we believe what people says, the karka event should have droped around 200 000 precursors and their price would be 2g each now.

Is it even possible to screw around with the drop rates of an individual player’s account without forcing him and only him to download a patch of some kind?

FYI regarding my post about receiving more exotics than my friend but less rings, I have 3% more MF than her due to me using the Karka accessory so the MF arguement is flawed.

Trust me, its swings and roundabouts. There will come a time where you seem to get more loot/drops/whatever than others, just be patient and itll equalise out.

Mimizu.7340:

i have never won the Lottery in RL, have i been “flagged” for that time in the pub that i mentioned that all lotteries were a con?

Yargesh.4965:

Mimizu.7340:

i have never won the Lottery in RL, have i been “flagged” for that time in the pub that i mentioned that all lotteries were a con?

Yeah, and the ones that win multiple times are fan-boys.

are you kidding me? can they program the balls that goes through the bin that are tossed by air? lol. are you implying that they can dent the balls or put sand inside it for a certain combination to come out?

in computer rng, they can do that, by that i mean allowing certain numbers to come out. these numbers are not tossed by air anyway.

alcedonia.7831:

Is it even possible to screw around with the drop rates of an individual player’s account without forcing him and only him to download a patch of some kind?

you twitch the number on the server.

do you mean i need a new browser everytime a homepage is updated? lol.

If they didn’t ‘weigh’ your RNG before this thread, they certainly should now.

Just, wow. Wow.

Flynch.6034:

If they didn’t ‘weigh’ your RNG before this thread, they certainly should now.

Just, wow. Wow.

if that will be so, then ill be vindicated. then this thread is right all along.

alcopaul.2156:

Flynch.6034:

If they didn’t ‘weigh’ your RNG before this thread, they certainly should now.

Just, wow. Wow.

if that will be so, then ill be vindicated. then this thread is right all along.

Considering the motto of the group who lobbied against the Ascended gear was ‘we are clearly the majority’ based on a 10k post threadnaught that repeated itself ad-nauseum, you honestly believe that Anet would ‘weigh’ the RNG against so many if you were indeed the majority?

Taking this thread into account, you do neither yourself nor your camp any favours.

alcopaul.2156:

if that will be so, then ill be vindicated. then this thread is right all along.

I wouldn’t really blame them at this point – it sounds as though you’d rather this be the truth than your own imagination, and it’d be a shame to disappoint you.

Kethryes.5712:

Thank you for the good laugh!

FYI the loot tables a modifiable yes… associated with the monsters/chests/whatever, thus affecting everyone when modified. There is no way they would have created loot tables associated to each player. No point and way too much work.

Edit: Now that I think about it, they could apply to you a permanent DR debuff actually…

But seriously, unless you have a personal ennemy who is dev at Anet, they are not even going to waste 2 minutes to do such a pointless thing when they have much more important things to do.

Also when you “hear people have drop 7-8 rings out of 9 runs”, well they didn’t. Just lying / exagerating. Otherwise if we believe what people says, the karka event should have droped around 200 000 precursors and their price would be 2g each now.

actually i think that drop rate for rings is really high…and i could believe to anyone saying they got 7 out of 9 runs….

i get 1 every 2 ._. (well i got just 1 that suits me, but for AR purpose they are fine u.u).

They are account bound btw.

I think the drop rate is something like 30-40% that may lead to some really unfortunate players and some really lucky…..

For that i hate RNG as most of us…….(despite i have 7-8 rings .-.).

proxy.7963:

alcopaul.2156:

if that will be so, then ill be vindicated. then this thread is right all along.

I wouldn’t really blame them at this point – it sounds as though you’d rather this be the truth than your own imagination, and it’d be a shame to disappoint you.

at least i don’t have the burden of any guilt.

Kethryes.5712:

Edit: Now that I think about it, they could apply to you a permanent DR debuff actually…

yeah. they can apply that to anybody.

that system is perfect to indirectly root out what they view as “undesirables”.

I honestly don’t think it’s a conspiracy. The devs are just not familiar with vertical progression and how a gear grind works—you do the grind, you get the gear. They will learn over time. You don’t go from not making grindy games to a smooth WoW-grind without a few bumps in the road.

Not to be rude… but not having AR shouldn’t really be a huge deal, even in level 30+. The way Agony works, you need to get hit by a specific attack easily avoidable attack in order to have Agony inflicted upon you. Avoid the attack, and AR means nothing.

This is coming from a player who had 0 AR until about FotM L20+ when I finally got a decent ring I wanted to drop.

I got a consecutive ring drops after the first client update yesterday. One regular and the other one infused. So i have +20 AR now. Thanks A.NET. I was thinking that this thread influenced it. Or prolly, coincidence. Whichever it is, thanks.

after the latest/second client update, i tried to get a ring again, thinking that prolly A.NET did it, but no rings dropped. I might try it 10 times to know that they just did me a favor and did an update just to get my 2 consecutive rings lol.

(yes, i’m solipsistic.)

Thanks again A.NET. or if it’s not you, thanks to the Ethereal Forces of the Binary World.

The drop on the rings is strange tbh.

First guild run of lvl 10 frac: four people received rings (80% drop)
Second guild run of lvl 10 frac: zero people received rings (0% drop)
Third guild run of lvl 10 frac: zero people received rings (0% drop)
Fourth guild run of lvl 10 frac: one person received a ring (20% drop)

These runs were all on separate days. The funny thing is the one player who received a ring on run #4 is the same player who didn’t receive a ring on run #1.

I’m happy that everyone has a ring, but you have to admit it’s a bit atypical for a pure RNG system.

kKagari.6804:

Do you realize how ridiculous your claim sounds? I’m not a fan of Arenanet’s constant blunders but for them to go out of their way to flag you is pretty damn crazy.

Don’t laugh, I wouldn’t put anything past them. They’ve done sneaky things in the past or have we forgotten about the recent nerfs to open world drops and the other incidents??

Bad luck caused by awfully bad design is the obvious explanation.

Well, we still got promises. Who knows, they might implement it soon… when the RL server shuts down (as rumours say will happen in about a week).

The issue is that you think RNG stands for Random Number Generator.

It does not.

Make your offerings to the Random Number God and everything will be OK.

alcopaul.2156:

Kethryes.5712:

Edit: Now that I think about it, they could apply to you a permanent DR debuff actually…

yeah. they can apply that to anybody.

that system is perfect to indirectly root out what they view as “undesirables”.

Why would they bother? They seem to prefer to do it wholesale rather than target individuals.
And i bet you are seriously mistaken if you think they care about you at all.