Caudecus would probably not have to go for a full frontal attack. With help of the Ministry Guard (basically under his control, iirc) he could take the castle from within, possibly even through the Asura Gate. As long as he leaves the people of DR in relative peace he will not have that much to fear from them. As soon as he is in power the other races won’t stand up to him but just adjust to the new situation, happy or not.
I think he’s lost control of the Ministry Guard with the loss of the protection of the crown. Then again… it could end up becoming a full-blown rebellion, given the posters going around.
By my understanding, the crown has no direct control over the Ministry Guard – part of the point of the Ministry Guard was so that the Ministry could have their own people that they could feel reasonably comfortable weren’t reporting to the monarch (as much as they can about anyone with the Shining Blade in existence, anyway). The Legate Minister – ie, Caudecus – is actually the commander in chief of the Ministry Guard. A state of affairs that seems to have been allowed to exist because pre-Caudecus Kryta apparently never had to deal with a Legate Minister with ambitions of usurpation.
Even if legally speaking the Queen could order the Ministry Guard to abandon Caudecus, for those loyal to him that’s more likely to be the trigger for defection and civil war. The Ministry Guard seems to be a varied bunch – some I think are loyal to individual ministers rather than to Caudecus – but those that are loyal to him aren’t going to abandon him on the queen’s say-so.
Now, depending on how well (or if) the queen has been publicising Caudecus’ White Mantle connections, it’s possible that’s cost him a lot of support. She may have chosen not to, however, on believability grounds (if Caudecus was killed resisting arrest and the Pact Commander vouched for it, that would be one thing… with Caudecus still at large and able to counter the narrative, that’s a riskier play).
Either way, though, the royalist faction has known that elements of the Ministry Guard have been a threat for a while. If they’re not prepared for the Ministry Guard insurgency scenario, that would be an Idiot Ball of “Surely Scarlet won’t attack Lion’s Arch a second time!” proportions.
The Ministry Guard are explicitly stated by Logan during Accusation (finale of the Dead Sister storyline) to be independent bodyguards hired directly by the ministers.
Which is a bit inconsistent with other sources that state the Ministry Guard is a unified body that reports to the Commander of Divinity’s Reach, who in turn reports to the Legate Minister.
It’s probably a combination of both. Formally speaking, the Ministry Guard is a unified body that reports to the Legate Minister. In practice, each minister hires and maintains their own unit, which is formally part of the unified Ministry Guard, but in practice may be more loyal to their minister than to the Guard as a whole.
Which serves as a legal fig leaf to allow each noble to have their own personal armed forces as in a feudal society, while having the appearance of being a single unified military order.
The Ministry Guard are explicitly stated by Logan during Accusation (finale of the Dead Sister storyline) to be independent bodyguards hired directly by the ministers.
The line is “But as the centaur attacks increased, Jennah’s father moved the Seraph out of the city. The ministers hired personal guards to protect them. Before we knew it, they were entrenched.” To me, anyway, that always read as ‘they started as personal guards, and that’s what we thought of them, so we weren’t prepared for them to become a full institution.’
Anyway, on the bigger discussion of Lazarus, I’m seeing two interpretations here- Lazarus the character and Lazarus the plot device.
The one has actions driven by his own goals, motivations, and desires, which after a couple hundred years are a blank slate for us- could still be villainous, could be sincere in turning over a new leaf, and either way would have a lot more to do with what happened to him in the interim than with his brush with our GW1 characters. More to the point, this is also the Lazarus that could change as the plot progresses- maybe he intends to cross us now, but over the course of working with us will slowly see the value in our approach. Maybe he is sincere, but our unrelenting suspicion will force him to give up on redemption and embrace the sinister role, and finally teach our PC a valuable lesson about being an kitten at the drop of a hat. It also means, like any number of GW2 characters, there might not be any final resolution to his plot arc.
The other has actions driven by his role in the story- he was cast by a villain, therefore, he must be villainous. He delivered what certainly sounded like foreshadowing, therefore, that must pay off. This school of thought essentially has Lazarus in a kind of stasis since GW1- after all, off-screen plot developments we never hear about is bad storytelling. That doesn’t mean he can’t become dynamic and mutable now that he’s back on the screen, but it does mean he’ll stay within certain boundaries- ultimately, it’s him against us, and after the sudden but inevitable betrayal we’ll get the satisfaction of beating him down and the validation that we players were right about that treacherous mursaat all along.
Honestly, it just comes down to A.) what kind of a story you prefer, and B.) what kind of a story you think ANet is telling. Both have their place (although you might be able to tell I personally prefer the former). As for ANet’s aims… well, historically, they’ve always treated their villains as nothing but villains. Maybe the underlings and little guys (Morgan, Canach) can defect, but every time an ominous and unsettling fellow claims to be alright, they turn out to have been working against us all along (Khilbron, Varesh). I don’t think there’s much chance that Lazarus will be on our team by the end of the season.
I see a lot of ministry guards either defect or declare their allegiance to their minister if he is loyal to the crown to avoid getting spoken guilty of treason and hanged. Even in modern societies treason is a crime that brings you many years in prison or a walk on the green mile.
From the information available, the ministry guard is not a fighting force like the Seraph are, there are more than enough commanders in chief in divinitys reach to effectively combat the flattery attention of Logan. It is instead a very loosely knit mercenary unit that probably cannot withstand the military might of the Seraph of things get rough.
Canach was not exactly a small villain. Also not a supervillain, but the plot around him was pretty big. He is also one of the rare (former) villains that make constant appearances now, not even Evon Gnashblade and Mai Trin have his prominence.
I would also like Lazarus to be sincere, at leat up to a certain point. Maybe he wants to hope that he can see the death of the elder dragons before he perishes in his quest to destroy humanity once and for all. Maybe he even gives the commander the opportunity to live in peace if he does not interfere. We of course interfere and have to kill our staunch ally Lazarus. That would make me quite sad.
Actually, the Ministry Guard is certainly a fighting force – we fight them a few times – and it’s mentioned a few times that on the whole they’re better equipped and possibly better equipped than the Seraph (the Seraph are underfunded while the Ministry Guard gets whatever they want: likely because the Ministry is blocking the Crown from raising taxes to support the Seraph and is sending the money they’ve saved to the Ministry Guard instead). They probably have less combat experience than the typical Seraph, but the ones we fight in the personal story seem decently capable as cannon fodder goes.
Furthermore, they may have started as loose-knit mercenary units, but Caudecus seems to have welded them into a reasonably unified fighting force. They’re probably about as unified as the Seraph, keeping in mind that no Seraph captain technically has authority over the entire Seraph (Logan has a ‘first among equals’ status, but that’s more because most of the other captains respect him and/or see him as the queen’s mouthpiece than that he technically outranks them). On paper, the Ministry Guard is probably actually more of a coherent body than the Seraph, since in principle they all report to the Commander of Divinity’s Reach (of which there is only one at a time – once gets killed in the commoner human PS, her replacement in the OoW story, and we don’t know who the replacement after that was) – much of it seems to be in effect Caudecus’ legal private army (as opposed to the WM and bandits, which are very much not legal).
The divisions come from the high likelihood that Ministry Guard units that serve a minister that isn’t loyal to Caudecus are likely to be more loyal to their minister than they are to the Commander of Divinity’s Reach when push comes to shove. Given that Caudecus has (or had, rather) his position because he had majority support of the Ministry, though, then it’s likely that the majority of the Ministry Guard is loyal to him, and much of it may actually be covert White Mantle.
(In fact, there’s a certain symmetry between the Ministry Guard living in luxury while the Seraph scrabble to make do, and the way wealth was distributed in the Kryta of Guild Wars 1.)
Yeah well, but Ministers will be forced to take a side. A minister can´t just barricade himself in his palace when the Seraph and Ministry Guards clash in divinitys reach and just order his personal guards to protect him.
If Caudecus wins, the minister is not seen as loyal from him and will probably be executed. Caudecus is a fanatic at this point from his own words, either you are with him or against him.
If the crown wins, the minister is also branded. He probably won´t be executed, but his days as minisiter are probably over,
In this scenario, I am pretty sure that most fence sitter ministers would choose the old order, because this is what feudalism/a republic is all about. An uprising shakes both orders massively. through the living story, especially the party in ls2, you can see that many ministers are shown as fence sitters who dislike/distrust Caudecus on a personal level but don´t want to lose the benefits he grants them. There is enough example of Caudecus cutting people who fail loose at any cost, so loyality should not be very deep there.
What I find quite funny is that Caudecus fears Logan. Why? I don´t get it. He is the gulliest dupe around and Caudecus made a fool out of him multiple times storywise, basically putting him a sign on the back stating that he is a traitor and Logan can do squat against it. I would be more concerned about Anise if I were Caudecus.
Thinking about your argument for the ministry guard:
In urban combat, you may have a point that the Ministry guards are equal oreven superior to the Seraph, but I also think that the common people would come to the aid of the Seraph in Divinity´s reach.
The Seraph are the fighting people that protect the homeland from Centaurs and Bandits, the Ministry Guard is a bunch of snobist guards of the rich.
(edited by Torolan.5816)
Thinking about your argument for the ministry guard:
In urban combat, you may have a point that the Ministry guards are equal oreven superior to the Seraph, but I also think that the common people would come to the aid of the Seraph in Divinity´s reach.
The Seraph are the fighting people that protect the homeland from Centaurs and Bandits, the Ministry Guard is a bunch of snobist guards of the rich.
Depends on how the conflict is cast. Seraph vs. Ministry Guard? Probably. But if they see it as Caudecus vs. Jennah, or even as the Ministry vs. the Crown, you’re going to have a much more divided reaction. Caudecus’ time playing at populism (though he never seemed truly good at it) has built him a sizable support base among the common class, and years of indirect influence seem to have put almost all of the underclass in his pocket. If the cards don’t come down right, Jennah’s going to look like the tyrant in all this- it’s the whole reason we didn’t move against Caudecus back in the PS.
The impression I get is that Caudecus has a lot of support among the nobles (which is why he’s the Legate Minister in the first place) and among the criminals. We’ve been told, however, that law-abiding commoners mostly prefer the queen – most of the Ministry nobles only care about themselves while Jennah genuinely does care about her people, and enough of the commoners recognise that for Jennah to have the advantage there.
Regarding Caudecus fearing Logan: Part of it may be that, while Logan isn’t as kittenay, Anise, if push came to shove it’s likely to be Logan that casts politics aside and just goes for Caudecus’ head if things get pushed too far. He’s hotheaded enough to try if sufficiently provoked, strong enough that there’s a good chance he’d succeed, and in the aftermath the royalist faction may or may not be able to spin it that Logan just went rogue and his actions shouldn’t be considered to reflect on the queen, but if Caudecus doesn’t care about what happens if he dies. (As seen in S3E1, he doesn’t believe in the White Mantle ideology, he just wants the crown, so he sees no benefit in martyring himself even if it does result in Jennah’s fall.)
This makes Logan a wild card. Anise is much more accomplished at intrigue, but by the same token she’ll play by the rules.
Regarding undecided ministers sitting out in the case of an all-out fight between Caudecus and Jennah… that is probably something they’d survive, particularly if they spun it as “I was just focusing on protecting my people”. They likely wouldn’t get rewarded the way they would if they supported the winner, and their position may be a bit tentative afterwards, but they could probably get away with it.
The bigger “swing factor”, though, would be that if Caudecus lead a violent coup, then his treachery will be plain for all to see… and then the Shining Blade can pull out all the other evidence that has been collected. It would be one thing to prove Caudecus’ treachery when publicly he’s still playing the loyal minister, but if he started a civil war it would be easier to persuade the fencesitters that the bandits and the success of the centaur invasion were his doing all along, and that would likely anger most of them enough to get off the fence.
This is all assuming Anet does anything more with Logan which, based on the chapters released so far, doesn’t look likely. <_<
Caudecus also has support from commoners, thanks to his support from criminals and nobles. They’ve got quite a racket going on.
The “Current Events” thing indicates that Queen Jennah is in a really, REALLY bad spot. Sure, she may have a bit of ambivalent support from commoners not concerned about the politics of Kryta – but if something major were to happen, every single doubt about her could come to a head and turn even loyal people against her:
1. She’s a mesmer, as is her closest advisor. There’s no way to tell if a supporter of hers is not brainwashed or even real.
2. She’s allied with Norn, Sylvari, Asura, and most notably Charr – all of them undermine her sovereignty over Kryta. Using a Sylvari enforcer to take down the biggest threat to her power will NOT go over well with the common people. The charr one is especially troubling.
3. Her guards, the Seraph, have failed to protect the common people from Centaurs and Bandits. Ministry-controlled lands do not have these problems.
You’ve got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the New West. You know…morons.
1. She’s a mesmer, as is her closest advisor. There’s no way to tell if a supporter of hers is not brainwashed or even real.
On this, the Mesmer Collective has, per the lore we’ve gotten, gone to extensive lengths to mitigate any commonplace knowledge about mesmers affecting individuals’ mental perceptions. This is tied, somewhat, to how mesmer skills in GW2 largely focus on altering reality rather than mental alterations like GW1 skills did.
So only the tinfoil hat folks, should, be the ones thinking and spreading about brainwashed supporters. This would be relatively on par to “Bush did 911” stuff.
3. Her guards, the Seraph, have failed to protect the common people from Centaurs and Bandits. Ministry-controlled lands do not have these problems.
This is actually rather false. The only lands lacking these problems is the inside of Beetletun’s walls (their farms still suffer). “Ministry-controlled lands” actually is… all of Kryta. Ministers govern over segments of Kryta, like Senators over states in the US (not best comparison, but a relatively well known enough one).
Furthermore, the Seraph actually were doing well last we saw or heard about, with killing the Modniir leadership (Harathi meta). Though we haven’t had an update about Kryta’s state of affairs with centaurs since release content, aside from one very ambiguous line from Jennah during the World Summit which doesn’t comment upon the Seraph’s effectiveness.
You’ve got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the New West. You know…morons.
I think the people within DR would have a greater say in things than folks out in the country, days and weeks away from the capital.
And city folks would be less swayed by “the countryside is under assault” – I mean, they didn’t really care about Zhaitan marching minions out of the Krytan swamps…
Caudecus also has support from commoners, thanks to his support from criminals and nobles. They’ve got quite a racket going on.
Not really. As I noted above, at least some of the commoners realise that the Ministry doesn’t really have their interests in mind… and criminals, almost be definition, don’t. This is one case where having the top and bottom rungs of the social ladder does not necessarily mean that you also control the middle.
The “Current Events” thing indicates that Queen Jennah is in a really, REALLY bad spot. Sure, she may have a bit of ambivalent support from commoners not concerned about the politics of Kryta – but if something major were to happen, every single doubt about her could come to a head and turn even loyal people against her:
We see the posters, but we don’t see anything about how they’re received. I see a lot of those as being akin to political mudslinging: throwing around whatever they can think of in hope that something sticks. Just because the posters are up doesn’t mean that anybody takes them seriously.
I think what Sartharina meant by criminals causing support from commoners is that often criminal actions are made blame on Jennah (in commoner PS, when you let the well be poisoned, the dialogue blames the Seraph and Jennah iirc) and are focused, subliminally, on supporters of Jennah.
=
Her guards, the Seraph, have failed to protect the common people from Centaurs
The Seraph drove the centaurs all the way back to Harathi Hinterlands, destroyed their strongholds and wiped out their leaders. I wouldn’t call that a failure. The only reason centaurs still run around human lands is because every zone is frozen in time.
(edited by Windu The Forbidden One.6045)
2. She’s allied with Norn, Sylvari, Asura, and most notably Charr – all of them undermine her sovereignty over Kryta. Using a Sylvari enforcer to take down the biggest threat to her power will NOT go over well with the common people. The charr one is especially troubling.
I get the issue with the charr, but what’s the problem with the other three races? Humans were never at war with any of them.
3. Her guards, the Seraph, have failed to protect the common people from Centaurs and Bandits. Ministry-controlled lands do not have these problems.
Konig already rebutted this point, but we do know why the bandits are only causing problems in certain places. If that part leaked out, things might be quite different for the Minister Beetlestone.
2. She’s allied with Norn, Sylvari, Asura, and most notably Charr – all of them undermine her sovereignty over Kryta. Using a Sylvari enforcer to take down the biggest threat to her power will NOT go over well with the common people. The charr one is especially troubling.
I get the issue with the charr, but what’s the problem with the other three races? Humans were never at war with any of them.
Well, there was that issue with Sylvari going minion crazy, destroying LA, killing the zephyrites, the more direct attack on DR in the crown pavilion, and the fallout of that in The Dragon’s Reach part 2. Right now general distrust of all Sylvari is high because of recent events.
It would also make sense that the crown, and ministry, need to keep playing nice with the Asura for the sake of gate tech, otherwise the trip to Ebonhawke would be much longer.
I’m curious to see if Demmi will be making a return, she has a very personal stake in this. The obvious one is Caudecus himself, but if Lady Valette Wi is indeed a daughter of the OoW Lady Wi, then the two very likely grew up seeing a lot of each other and suggests Valette is also undercover.
2. She’s allied with Norn, Sylvari, Asura, and most notably Charr – all of them undermine her sovereignty over Kryta. Using a Sylvari enforcer to take down the biggest threat to her power will NOT go over well with the common people. The charr one is especially troubling.
I get the issue with the charr, but what’s the problem with the other three races? Humans were never at war with any of them.
Pride/Arrogance/Sovereignty. Humans like being the indisputed master of their world, though they tolerate other races not interfering (Or, at best, interfering in a minor, pro-human way. They’ll applaud a Norn helping fend off a Grawl or Charr assault, for example – as long as said Norn doesn’t seek any sort of authority or station as a reward).
Season 1&2 lead to expansion and hot, devs received about this some feedback if to sum it – it would be something like: what with rest of the world/it was supposed to be living world so what other ED’s are doing/there are other treats than ED/ need next sezon or even two will lead to ED?
If devs perceive feedback from past as decipted above, the season 3 will be world guide tour to show all treats, and if we wanna go deeper into that treat/branch its will called expansion/bonus mision pack/raid etc.
Next stop on Shiverpeaks’ station? Attraction: hunting mind touched sons of svanir?
Lazarus is pretty big due to consumed magic, compared to slender pale form from gw1. Big model to see animations if fought against – maybe/maybe not?
Lazarus helping weaker its true even if he is lying and deceiving us. There is one particular profit from protecting weaker ones. Dwayna grants blessing if you protect weaker humans and then also proctect those weaklings. What if that can apply to protect all weak not only humans(if not Marjory human close just in case)? what if Lazarus influence will trigger blessing to weak from Dwayna that reside in the mists and Lazarus will be able to trace it? Purse that virtue, remove helping to weaker from the world, remove altruism, remove caring for others. It would be a deal as revenge.
Caudecus, Demi and Wi family – would like to put an quess on something like that: wife of Caudecus was protecting quenn Jennah (maybe in disquise of her) and died. Caudecus blame everything on Jennah so maybe he is right but case still wasn’t shown to light. Demi don’t wanna take part in his revenge. She seeks help in from her friend and her mother Wi. Their mothers also were friend so Wi wanna watch/stop Caudecus, cuz her dead friend wouldn’t wish for that what he is doing.
Humans like being the indisputed master of their world
So basically just like the Charr, Asura, Mursaat and every other race except maybe the Norn and Sylvari.
2. She’s allied with Norn, Sylvari, Asura, and most notably Charr – all of them undermine her sovereignty over Kryta. Using a Sylvari enforcer to take down the biggest threat to her power will NOT go over well with the common people. The charr one is especially troubling.
I get the issue with the charr, but what’s the problem with the other three races? Humans were never at war with any of them.
Pride/Arrogance/Sovereignty. Humans like being the indisputed master of their world, though they tolerate other races not interfering (Or, at best, interfering in a minor, pro-human way. They’ll applaud a Norn helping fend off a Grawl or Charr assault, for example – as long as said Norn doesn’t seek any sort of authority or station as a reward).
Yeah, I’m going to need you to back up that claim with some sort of proof. I don’t remember seeing anything like that from any group of humans except MAYBE the White Mantle, and we haven’t seen much of them until quite recently (at least, in their present form). It doesn’t have to be much: idle chatter in any of the settlements, something mentioned in any of the instances, even an item description that people may not have necessarily read. Humans seem to have had pretty good relations with both norn and asura ever since their first encounter back during Eye of the North, and the game goes out of its way to show that all 5 races are happily working together to defeat the dragons (at least for now).
2. She’s allied with Norn, Sylvari, Asura, and most notably Charr – all of them undermine her sovereignty over Kryta. Using a Sylvari enforcer to take down the biggest threat to her power will NOT go over well with the common people. The charr one is especially troubling.
I get the issue with the charr, but what’s the problem with the other three races? Humans were never at war with any of them.
Pride/Arrogance/Sovereignty. Humans like being the indisputed master of their world, though they tolerate other races not interfering (Or, at best, interfering in a minor, pro-human way. They’ll applaud a Norn helping fend off a Grawl or Charr assault, for example – as long as said Norn doesn’t seek any sort of authority or station as a reward).
Yeah, I’m going to need you to back up that claim with some sort of proof. I don’t remember seeing anything like that from any group of humans except MAYBE the White Mantle, and we haven’t seen much of them until quite recently (at least, in their present form). It doesn’t have to be much: idle chatter in any of the settlements, something mentioned in any of the instances, even an item description that people may not have necessarily read. Humans seem to have had pretty good relations with both norn and asura ever since their first encounter back during Eye of the North, and the game goes out of its way to show that all 5 races are happily working together to defeat the dragons (at least for now).
Actually, the White Mantle are one of the few that willingly cast aside their own sovereignty for that of another race. But it’s something that’s EXTREMELY clear throughout the entire first game. It’s just glossed over because the story’s told from human perspective. Humans do work well with Norn and Asura – those two races were weak and no threat to human sovereignty, as well as residing in areas humans have little desire to make their own. However, while humans certainly appreciate Norn and Asura assistance and esteemed individuals, there is absolutely no sign of them having any respect for those race’s authority figures as such. And, it’s only with the threat of the Elder Dragons and other contests of Sovereignty that the races started tending to their own territory instead of expanding into each other’s, and working toward a common goal. Even now, Charr and Humans are violently arguing with Grawl, Skritt, and Ogres over control over Ascalon, seeing those two races as beneath respect. Norn share similar contempt toward the Grawl, Dredge, and Jotun in the Shiverpeaks (They get along with the Kodan because the Kodan are a weak refugee race that do not challenge the sovereignty of the other races). The Humans are fighting with Centaur and other races for Kryta, and Asura are shamelessly and amorally experimenting on Skritt, Ettins Hylek, and until recently Sylvari in Maguuma.
Every race in these conflicts see themselves as the one true hero race worthy of the land and its resources and culture.
Humans like being the indisputed master of their world
So basically just like the Charr, Asura, Mursaat and every other race except maybe the Norn and Sylvari.
Exactly.
I’m gonna have to dispute the whole “human soveriegnty” as a racial feature.
Humans did spread and conquer, yes, and Cantha certainly went full isolationist xenophobia, but not really the other nations. Elona especially had decent terms with other races (the centaurs) for a while (until Varesh by proxy Abaddon took over).
There’s a bit of hostility between humans and non-humans but this isn’t so much a trait of humanity or their desire for “sovereignty” but rather them, under Balthazar’s guide, conquering other races’ lands and those races (tengu, centaurs, and charr) striking back (well, charr is dubious).
Humans had a long standing alliance with the dwarves, for example, and never invaded their lands (best we know), despite having nations on either side of Deldrimor.
Humans “work well” with asura and norn not because they were “no threat to human sovereignty” but because it wasn’t a case of nation versus nation.
Humans are really ‘arguing’ with grawl, skritt, and ogres… except not really for grawl and skritt… because they are a threat. Ogres, particularly, are invading human and charr lands to take more territory. They are invaders. Skritt and grawl are simply hostile – despite charr and humans trying to put out a metaphorical olive branch.
You are going to end up fighting groups that incite violence on you – you cannot blame humans for attacking tribal races that attack them first.
Whatever desires to be “master of the world” humanity had were driven primarily by Balthazar’s drive, and that’s been long gone. It’s not paused by the rise of the Elder Dragons. And even then, humans have had long standing attempts at peace – such as Canthan tengu, Tyrian dwarves, and Elonian centaurs – which are often undone by later leaders.
I think sovereignty is an issue, but not in the ‘humans want sovereignty over others’ sense, but in the ‘humans want sovereignty over themselves’ sense.
Nobody wants a leader who puts the interests of others over the people they lead. We’re seeing this come up a lot in the real world in US and European politics in particular. Queen Jennah being too close to other races – particularly using them as enforcers – may lead to fears that she might make concessions to other races that aren’t in Kryta’s interests.
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