Guild Wars 2

TWMagimay.9057:

… you need to observe events on a large scale thus connecting separate events.

I also feel the need to point out that the individual trials are indeed separate, and looking at the data across multiple trials does not “connect” them.

Consider four coin flips. The probability of getting HHHH is exactly the same as the probability of getting TTTT, or HTHT, or THTH, or TTTH, etc.

Why is it then more probable to get two heads and two tails? Because the number of specific distributions in which there exist two heads and two tails is larger than the number of specific distributions in which there are one, two, or three Hs. The probability of each distribution occurring is still identical.

Wow, And I tought I know some statistics. Kitten me.

After all this, could you guys calculate that out of 20 tries, what was the probabilty that I don’t get Volcanic? (tier 3 fractal, tier 3 has 4 different fractals – and you can only get volcanic in this tier)

I just wanna know, how unlucky I actually was.

If you did it 20 times, with 1/4 chance of “success” each (3/4 chance of “failure”), the probability you wouldn’t get it is (3/4)^20 ~= 0.0032.

You’re the lucky 0,32%.

uhmm, isn’t that .25%…..1/4 of 20 is 5….

You’re speaking of Expected Value (First moment). I’m speaking of probability of 20 (out of 20) consecutive Bernoulli Trial “failures” (Not getting Volcanic Fractal).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli_trial

probability only works if you know the exact chance, a 1/4 chance is to rough a number.
if, for instance, you get 1 in 5 runs and then 2 in 5 runs then the 2/5 or 1/5 is way to rough to measure. (that would be 1/30 btw)

sorudo.9054:

probability only works if you know the exact chance, a 1/4 chance is to rough a number.
if, for instance, you get 1 in 5 runs and then 2 in 5 runs then the 2/5 or 1/5 is way to rough to measure. (that would be 1/30 btw)

Well first of all, that’s not true. The problem is that you’re using sample sizes that are far too small to draw any kind of statistical data. Also, as I mentioned in my post above, using the Bayesian update rule, one can generate reliable statistical data without knowing the “exact chance”. One only needs to be in the right ballpark. In this case, that wouldn’t be hard to accomplish, since with four fractals in that tier, the probabilities are not likely to be terribly complicated, and we can safely assume that if they’re not exactly 1/4, they’re close.

Hi guys. Just wanted to say I love the discussion (Math is so much fun!), but it is getting a bit off topic.

I think that “On each attempt there is an unkown probability of rolling Fractal X, thus whether it is possible to get the achievement for X depends on luck” will suffice. In any event, even if that probability was 99.9% to roll the desired Fractal, there is still luck involved, which is what I absolutely do not like, since it is taken out of my hands.

But amazing discussion :>

The probability/statistics discussion was brought in due to the argument made that it wasn’t possible to complete all of the achievements within the two weeks. It only dragged on for almost two pages since there were a few people who had hardly any experience with probability/statistics and a great deal of time was spent explaining concepts repeatedly. Not their fault as this isn’t really covered in the education system.