Guild Wars 2

Using (Rare) Unidentified Brown Dye as an example, there are 25 common dyes, 10 uncommon dyes, and 8 rare dyes possible.

Does anyone know if the odds are even across all categories, i.e. an equal 1/43 chance each (in this case) for any given color, or does the drop rate varies between common, uncommon, and rare, making the odds of getting a common color more than 1/43, and the odds of getting an uncommon or rare color less than a 1/43 chance?

Anyone know? Thanks!

I don’t have stats on the spectrum specific dyes (such as the one you mention). I do have stats on the general unID dyes that drop from various sources across Tyria (including the much-maligned BL Chests).

I have presumed that the ratios are consistent for the spectrum specific vials as well. The evidence I have to date is consistent with that, although it’s too little data to use to draw conclusions.

• Common/Fine: 66%
• Uncommon/Masterwork: 24%
• Rare/Rare: 10%

Within those ratios, each dye has an equal chance of dropping, e.g. each common dye has a 66%/181 chance of dropping, each uncommon has a 24%/119 chance, and each rare a 10%/82 chance.

I therefore presume in your Rare unID Brown example that the chances are

• Common 66%/25
• Uncommon 24%/10
• Rare 10%/8

These stats were taken from various posts early in the game’s history and periodically validated by other posts (and my own data).

For most people, the shorter story is easier to remember:
Sell the dyes at a custom offer close to the highest WTS price.

• That’s almost significantly more coin than opening
• (less often it’s about break-even and only very rarely do you get more from opening… unless you’re lucky).

Back when I was keeping track … out of 481 unidentified dyes this was the breakdown
common 70.48%
uncommon 16.42%
rare 13.10%

Khisanth.2948:

Back when I was keeping track … out of 481 unidentified dyes this was the breakdown
common 70.48%
uncommon 16.42%
rare 13.10%

If you published that way back when, it’s probably somewhere in my notes as part of my data

Given how many dyes there are, those numbers are consistent (more or less) with what I wrote above. My data was based on about 3000 vials, but it came in ‘sets’ of 4-5 stacks or 1 stack and the variance was high: rares were 9-11%, uncommon ranged from 14-25%.

When in doubt, I tend to stick with more conservative estimates — that makes it easier to to ensure that luck won’t play a big role in determining whether my investments pay off or not.

Regardless of the specifics, you have the right ballpark figures and some reasonable assumptions:

• about 2/3 of regular unID dye drops are common.
• about 1/6 are uncommon
• about 1/8 or 1/10 are rare
• it’s reasonable to assume that all dyes of the same rarity have an equal chance of dropping; it’s not reasonable to assume that Abyss drops as often from Rare Grey as Iron does.