Guild Wars 2

Hello,
since the upcoming update (from august 11) will double the drop rate of black lion claim tickets and scraps… i was wondering if there is something of usefull (for our economy) we can do with this… but i don’t see anything at all…

first of all i used this drop table for comparison
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

ticket = 0.013 = 1.3% -> x2 = 2.6%
scraps = 0.253 = 25.3% -> x2 = 50.6%

now supposing i want to get at least 1 ticket i need somewhat like 100/2.6 = 39 black lion keys and yet i’m not sure i’ll get one (due to RNG)

Now with a bit of imagination… i want to use 40 keys and get 2 black lion tickets (at 1st and 40th) while in the mid i only get scraps with a 50% chance… the result is:

2 tickets
24 scraps = 2 tickets + 4 scraps
tot = 4 tickets + 4 scraps
gems used 3450 (supposing no discounts on keys from shop; 2100 for 25 keys + 450 (x3) for 5×3 gems) which is something like 450 golds (supposing 13 gold per 100 gems)…

now with all those “hypothetical” and “optimal” drops/prices/luck … we get
4 weapons for 450 golds. If we can sell each weapon for 100 gold (actually is it something like 70-80g) we only get 400 golds… -10% (from market tax) = 360 gold

there is something of wrong or this is no-sense? it is even better to buy them on TP if you want the skin… maybe the loot table is old?

PS: oh i forget, you get ton of boosters! :P

ok, now seriously… what do you think? is it worth a try?

Your calculations, to be accurate, should also factor in the cost in gems of the non ticket items you get per key, 3 items. Let’s say 50 keys to make the math easy.

[warning: this is a very rough estimate, it’s just to get ranges]

One booster: we’ll say 120 gems.
One express ~ 50 gems. Frequently get 2

(Unusual items: ~one in 50 runs or so. (Hair kits, mini packs, black lion salvage kits, etc..) Say ~ 300 gems. Not going to calculate these in. But I regularly get one or two items worth 300 gems in every set of 50 keys. There are also other items that drop, several times in a 50 key set. They are not calculated in either as RNG is high).

So. Let’s say 50 keys, the very minimum you might get.
50 × 120 gems/booster=6000 gems
50 x (2 chances/key) x (50 gems/express)=5000 gems
Total so far, 50 keys: 11,000 gems

Currently spidy says 100 gems costs 13.83 gold to buy.
(11,000/100) x 13.83= 1521.30 gold

Then let’s say you got one ticket out of the 50 runs, you sold the weapon skin for 80 gold

Total value received for the 50 keys ~ 1601 gold. (Minimum, as it doesn’t factor in the larger gem value items)

So, is it worth it? If you do key runs that comes to items valued (currently) at ~ 32 gold for each 20 minute key run.

well you are right… but i said

" i was wondering if there is something of usefull (for our economy) we can do with this"

so i was only considering tickets because are the only thing which is worth to sell on the tp … well except the permanent air stilist contract XD…

Kjeldoran.3849:

well you are right… but i said

" i was wondering if there is something of usefull (for our economy) we can do with this"

so i was only considering tickets because are the only thing which is worth to sell on the tp … well except the permanent air stilist contract XD…

It’s still equity and a boost to your bank account, even if it’s indirect.

I’ve also gotten minis, unidentified dyes, back packs, black lion salvage kits, hair kits, total makeover kits, and other items.

One thing you didn’t say and which makes a big difference, are you doing key runs, buying with real money or buying with ingame gold. To answer your question you need to specify.

You do realize that it’s not impossible to open 40 chests and GET NO scraps or tickets, right? As long as that point is clear in your mind, do whatever you want (but please don’t come in here and post a “I OPENED 40 CHESTS AND GOT NO SRAPS!!!!!”, thread).