Q:
Knowledge of the Mystic Forge and Precs
A:
The basic math is that you have a 0.78% change of getting a precursor if you put in 4 exotics (level 76 or above). this doesn’t mean that if you throw in 512 exotics you are garanteed to get a precursor, it is a change, so it can be 4 exotics and it can be a million, it all depends on your luck.
Looking at Greatswords (my target) I have seen that it is actually a lil bit better to gamble with rares you craft. The cost per rare is pretty low compared to the price on the TP. when throwing in 4 rares you have a 20% change of getting upgraded to exotic. But also an 80% change of getting a rare back.
This means that every 16 rares will result in one exotic (on average), unless you are unlucky, but then you get another shot cause you got 4 rares again.
Now why is this important??
if there is a 20% change on getting an exotic, there is a 0.15% change for that exotic being a legendary. (and if not you can use that exotic again to have another shot at it)
This means that out of 68 rares you got a 0.93% change that you end up with an exotic
Keep in mind that this is all based on chances. The actual result can and will vary a lot. will lady fortuna smile on you?? I cannot tell.
Arise, opressed of Tyria!
Exotics give you a higher chance than rares.
Rare: world boss event, guarantee one per event per day per account. sometime drop exotic as well.
Exotics: dungeon token and buy off from vendor
You can craft rares and exotic, and
You can always buy rares and exotics from trading post.