Guild Wars 2

So I have been kicking around the idea of trying to get my precursor via the mystic forge and based on the prices I see on the TP I feel comfortable assuming a 1% chance if all 4 items are Exotic weapons.

That may be incorrect and if anyone had more solid number I would love to know!

But based on a 1% chance and a Price of 2G per exotic great sword wouldn’t the cost of 100 attempts be 8g+ (6g * 99) = 602G

Based on that, It seems a much better investment to just save up for them and buy them off the TP at their current price.

For rares I am working on a assumed .1% chance. lets also assume you can buy Rare Great swords at 30S. then 100 attampts would look something like this
1.2G +(.90G *99) = 90.3g which is clearly way too low a cost. So the actual % is probably closer to .025% maybe?

The mystic forge is pretty much a slot machine.

There’s a chance that you can get it your first try and there’s a chance that you won’t get it until your 1,000th try.

At 100 attempts, your calculation looks correct seeing as you get one exotic back if not the one you want. So assuming all the exotics you get back are of little value (the price you set at 2g), it should be that 602g. The price is outrageous, but obviously you could get lucky as Ayrilana mentioned. This is definitely a huge gamble.

Grazingcattle.1627:

But based on a 1% chance and a Price of 2G per exotic great sword wouldn’t the cost of 100 attempts be 8g+ (6g * 99) = 602G

If you do 100 attempts with 1% chance of success, you’re chance to get at least one precursor is only 63% and not 100% as many people think. That’s how probability works.

I think the way to calculate your chances to get a precursor is to count all the rare versions you see in the TP (if using any rares) and all the exotic + named exotic versions. Then divide one (that’s the wanted item) by the amount of them all. That might be something like 1/200 if you use rares + exotics. I don’t know how the exotics with mystic forge recipes affect this, most likely they are not included.