Guild Wars 2

I noticed in the preview for the Black Lion Chest that only 2 of the nodes are showing. Someone guessed they made them on a rotation and if so dose anyone know the time table of when they switch them out? If i am going use my keys might as well try to get a node that i want not a Omnomberry Harvesting Node or Hard Wood Logging Node.

If it’s any consolation, the odds of you getting either node are so bad that you will likely never have to worry about it.

The new preview system hasn’t been in place long enough to establish patterns.

As far as I’ve seen, the nodes change when the Black Lion Chest changes. So, each ‘season’.

You can preview the contents with each ‘seasonal’ change to see which nodes are on offer.

Good luck.

Thanks for the feed for all the feed back.

To what is this referring? I don’t understand the OP at all, but obviously whatever s/he’s referring to is known by the rest of you.

Please enlighten me?

Daddicus.6128:

To what is this referring? I don’t understand the OP at all, but obviously whatever s/he’s referring to is known by the rest of you.

Please enlighten me?

Black Lion Chests have a super duper really rare chance to drop a “node”. Using the node will unlock a permanent gathering node in your home instance (i.e. allow you to mine mithril, gather Omnomberries, or chop hard wood logs).

Your “home instance” is the area in each racial capital city where most of the personal story instances occur. “Salma District”, is the home instance in Divinity’s Reach, for example.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Home_instance

Before the preview mode was available, we’ve been reasonably sure that the chests offered roughly equal chances for each of the home instance nodes (as well as the four permanent contracts). Since then, it’s clear that the drop tables are being adjusted substantially each new ‘season’ (which seems to start with a new story or returning festival).

We’ve never been reasonably sure about drop rates or what is even in the chest if it was a very rare drop because all information about what was in the chest was gathered anodically by self reporting to the wiki. We didn’t even know what nodes could drop until someone got one. Sure, logically there’s no reason not to make the chance of which node the same.

Even today we don’t even know the chance of a 4th slot much less than the weighting of each item in each rarity group or slot.

mtpelion.4562:

Daddicus.6128:

To what is this referring? I don’t understand the OP at all, but obviously whatever s/he’s referring to is known by the rest of you.

Please enlighten me?

Black Lion Chests have a super duper really rare chance to drop a “node”. Using the node will unlock a permanent gathering node in your home instance (i.e. allow you to mine mithril, gather Omnomberries, or chop hard wood logs).

Your “home instance” is the area in each racial capital city where most of the personal story instances occur. “Salma District”, is the home instance in Divinity’s Reach, for example.

https://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Home_instance

Ahh. Thank you; that makes sense now.

I have 255 keys so far and I don’t want to risk getting a node worth 500 gold verse a node worth 1000 gold if I was to wait untill it was in the preview. Might as well boost my chances of getting good loot as much as I can.

OK, I previewed a chest, and I’m still confused. The preview simply showed me all kinds of possibilities. I don’t see how that allows someone to have a better (or worse) chance at one of the super rares.

It doesn’t affect the chances, but it does tell you whether the specific node you’re trying to get is even in the current loot table. If you want a flax node and the two nodes on the table are not flax, you can save your resources/keys.

Every time I preview I make sure to check that the Permanent Hair Stylist is still there. I know I’ll never ever get one, but at least there’s a tiny chance each time I open a chest.

Donari.5237:

Every time I preview I make sure to check that the Permanent Hair Stylist is still there. I know I’ll never ever get one, but at least there’s a tiny chance each time I open a chest.

And to Daddicus’ question: folks are looking to have at least a tiny chance, rather than no chance at all.

OK, I see.

Does anybody know what the actual odds are?

Daddicus.6128:

OK, I see.

Does anybody know what the actual odds are?

No one person individually opens enough chests to know. People can aggregate results on the Wiki, but sadly that doesn’t happen often and without restarting the counts every time the contents are cycled, the information that is present is likely to be highly inaccurate.

Daddicus.6128:

OK, I see.

Does anybody know what the actual odds are?

The odds are
1) it’s possible you’ll get it
2) it’s not impossible, but it’s unlikely you’ll get it
3) highly unlikely, but miracles do happen
4) you’re dreaming if you think you’re going to get that

Just a flesh wound.3589:

Daddicus.6128:

OK, I see.

Does anybody know what the actual odds are?

The odds are
1) it’s possible you’ll get it
2) it’s not impossible, but it’s unlikely you’ll get it
3) highly unlikely, but miracles do happen
4) you’re dreaming if you think you’re going to get that

5) put money aside as a cheapo buy offer; remove and replace the offer with as much as you are willing to afford. 100% chance of acquiring it at some point.

mtpelion.4562:

No one person individually opens enough chests to know. People can aggregate results on the Wiki, but sadly that doesn’t happen often and without restarting the counts every time the contents are cycled, the information that is present is likely to be highly inaccurate.

Yeah, I noted that. I track my own, but I’ve only opened 293, which is apparently nowhere near the amount needed.

I used to add them to the wiki’s research page, but my edits disappeared about a year ago. I didn’t know if they were folded in or just removed, so I didn’t want to re-add them.

I did get two Noran’s safe room/keys back-to-back a few weeks ago. Interestingly, I didn’t actually receive the second one, possibly because I already had one in inventory. I actually received two BL chest keys instead. So, that might be a warning for folks.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

The odds are
1) it’s possible you’ll get it
2) it’s not impossible, but it’s unlikely you’ll get it
3) highly unlikely, but miracles do happen
4) you’re dreaming if you think you’re going to get that

5) put money aside as a cheapo buy offer; remove and replace the offer with as much as you are willing to afford. 100% chance of acquiring it at some point.
[/quote]
:)
:D

Daddicus.6128:

mtpelion.4562:

No one person individually opens enough chests to know. People can aggregate results on the Wiki, but sadly that doesn’t happen often and without restarting the counts every time the contents are cycled, the information that is present is likely to be highly inaccurate.

Yeah, I noted that. I track my own, but I’ve only opened 293, which is apparently nowhere near the amount needed.

I used to add them to the wiki’s research page, but my edits disappeared about a year ago. I didn’t know if they were folded in or just removed, so I didn’t want to re-add them.

I did get two Noran’s safe room/keys back-to-back a few weeks ago. Interestingly, I didn’t actually receive the second one, possibly because I already had one in inventory. I actually received two BL chest keys instead. So, that might be a warning for folks.

Hey Daddicus, I did some digging and I see that you tried to bring this to the wiki’s attention more than a few times. Sorry it didn’t get addressed.

Quick summary: Due to the changing mechanics of the BL Chests, the wiki must throw out all previous information that had been gathered and start anew. We don’t know what changes were made to the drop rates between versions. We had been updating an archive listing but that’s fallen by the wayside (effort > return; or too few knew about the page, including me).

A listing of previous archives led me to your most recent set of 59 chests (don’t look at the actual page; a new data structure makes it frightening).

I know it’s discouraging to see work disappear, but in order to have a remote chance of figuring out odds we’ll need to keep on gathering solid data. Only with a large buy-in from the community can the numbers be accurate (or perhaps we can get hints from Anet on how their loot tables work ).

Daddicus.6128:

mtpelion.4562:

No one person individually opens enough chests to know. People can aggregate results on the Wiki, but sadly that doesn’t happen often and without restarting the counts every time the contents are cycled, the information that is present is likely to be highly inaccurate.

Yeah, I noted that. I track my own, but I’ve only opened 293, which is apparently nowhere near the amount needed.

I used to add them to the wiki’s research page, but my edits disappeared about a year ago. I didn’t know if they were folded in or just removed, so I didn’t want to re-add them.

I did get two Noran’s safe room/keys back-to-back a few weeks ago. Interestingly, I didn’t actually receive the second one, possibly because I already had one in inventory. I actually received two BL chest keys instead. So, that might be a warning for folks.

For account-unlocks, you are supposed to receive 2 BL Keys, instead of the duplicate item. I had to contact the CS Team to have my Noran’s Pass replaced; glad to see it worked for you.

Too bad those silly Pink Quaggan Backpacks aren’t account-unlocks. I’ve received 3 or 4 of those. Sigh.

Greener.6204:

Hey Daddicus, I did some digging and I see that you tried to bring this to the wiki’s attention more than a few times. Sorry it didn’t get addressed.

Quick summary: Due to the changing mechanics of the BL Chests, the wiki must throw out all previous information that had been gathered and start anew. We don’t know what changes were made to the drop rates between versions. We had been updating an archive listing but that’s fallen by the wayside (effort > return; or too few knew about the page, including me).

A listing of previous archives led me to your most recent set of 59 chests (don’t look at the actual page; a new data structure makes it frightening).

I know it’s discouraging to see work disappear, but in order to have a remote chance of figuring out odds we’ll need to keep on gathering solid data. Only with a large buy-in from the community can the numbers be accurate (or perhaps we can get hints from Anet on how their loot tables work ).

I thought it was something like that. Maybe I’ll draw a line across my data and post only the new stuff I get from now on.

Thanks!

Inculpatus cedo.9234:

For account-unlocks, you are supposed to receive 2 BL Keys, instead of the duplicate item. I had to contact the CS Team to have my Noran’s Pass replaced; glad to see it worked for you.

Too bad those silly Pink Quaggan Backpacks aren’t account-unlocks. I’ve received 3 or 4 of those. Sigh.

I didn’t realize it was an account unlock. That makes sense, then.