Guild Wars 2

Ok, I might be entirely imagining things but for the past month (at least), after throwing hundreds and hundreds of greens into MF to turn them into rare, I notice that it was a LOT harder to get rare. Unfortunately, I didnt properly collect the stats but it certainly felt like I got MUCH LESS rares from doing that. Like, I can go on 20 attempts and get no single rare. Then the same thing happens the next days when i accumulated enough greens. it certainly didnt feel like 20% success.

Does anyone feel the same? I might start collecting stats after this.

nope

/15chars

DavyMcB.1603:

Does anyone feel the same? I might start collecting stats after this.

Collect stats first, then come back.

People ‘feeling’ things having changed is irrelevant.

Izithel.6853:

DavyMcB.1603:

Does anyone feel the same? I might start collecting stats after this.

Collect stats first, then come back.

People ‘feeling’ things having changed is irrelevant.

Yes indeed.

For reference, assuming the “true” chance of an upgrade is 20% (which is likely, based on tons of data so far), if you combine 200 greens (50 attempts), the “expected” average is 10:

• There’s a 44% chance of getting worse than average, i.e. 9 or fewer rares.
• There’s just under a 5% chance of getting half the expected, i.e. 5 or fewer rares.

5 out of 50 feels really bad, but it’s not any sort of indication of a changed drop rate; it’s common enough that it happens to everyone who forges a lot.

Last week i dropped 250 rare gs in forge got only 1 exotic. talking about nerfing drop rate.

Ragnarox.9601:

Last week i dropped 250 rare gs in forge got only 1 exotic. talking about nerfing drop rate.

1 upgrade in 62 tries has less than a 1:5000 chance of happening. While it’s possible, it is very unlikely. In your shoes, I would file a report with Support, including the approximate date/time.