Guild Wars 2

Blue team is at 330 and Red team is at 410. Red team has two-cap, but Blue is winning the team fight at mid. Can Blue make a comeback?

Most likely yes if Blue manages to cap mid and hold a two-cap. Consider that Red team wins the game once they accumulate 90 points (500 – 410 = 90). If Red team still has one–cap and Blue team has two–caps, by the time that Red gets 90 points, Blue had already won since they have amassed 180 points (180 + 330 = 510). Now this is only a guess, player kills and NPC kills all else being equal.

When you watch a match, you can find out if a team still has a possibility of making a comeback. To find out the possibility of a comeback, start by finding out how much points the winning team has to win the game. From the previous example, Red has 90 points. Now multiply that figure by 2—this assumes that Blue holds and maintains a two-cap. Once you have the product (180 points), add that to the losing team’s score and see if it adds up to 500 or more (180 + 330 = 510).

That’s it. Take the winning team’s point spread for a win and then multiply by 2. Add that product to the losing team’s points and if the sum is less than 500, the chances of winning is dire.

Now, consider Red team has 250 points and Blue team has 1 point. With kill points all being equal, Blue team may still win if they manage to grab and hold a two-cap, even if Red has a one-cap (250pt x 2 = 500pts + 1pt from Blue).

If Red team has 300 points, Blue must have 101 points and a two-cap to have a chance to win the game.

If Red has 350, Blue must have 201 and a two-cap.

If Red has 400, Blue must have 301 and a two-cap.

Finally, if Red has 450, Blue must have 401 and a two-cap.

tl;dr?

infantrydivEU.9670:

tl;dr?

Take winning team’s points and minus it with 500. Multiply the difference by 2. Add the product to the losing team’s points. If losing team’s points is less than 500, then chances are low for a comeback even with a two-cap.

All else being equal.

You’re not taking into account the law of variable change.

Using your example 410-330

If during that time both teams land 4 kills each (20 points) then—assuming constants—even if blue held a 2-cap the full duration they would still lose.

So sure basic math can give us a perspective mid-match, but variable change makes calculating these in a realistic fashion much more difficult mid-match.

Things can also go differently in Spirit Watch and Legacy of the Foefire with the extra points from orbs and killing the Lord. (And Forest of Niflhel with slaying Svanir/Chieftain too.)

In one match I had in Legacy, we were down 350 – 470 to the enemy team, but at the last minute I and a Thief managed to ninja-kill the Blue Lord and we ended up winning.

Zaxares.5419:

Things can also go differently in Spirit Watch and Legacy of the Foefire with the extra points from orbs and killing the Lord. (And Forest of Niflhel with slaying Svanir/Chieftain too.)

In one match I had in Legacy, we were down 350 – 470 to the enemy team, but at the last minute I and a Thief managed to ninja-kill the Blue Lord and we ended up winning.

NPC kills were not factored in the rule-of-thumb calculation. However, NPC kills can be your trump cards at the late game.

Thinking about this further, there’s no clear distinction whether a game is in the early game, mid game or late game. I think, with the estimate calculation above, PvP plays have early and late games.

Early game is the period before a team reaches 250. Before 250, it’s everyone’s game.

Late game happens when one team reaches 250. At late game, we can estimate or guess whether the losing team can make a comeback. As the points tick, the chances of the losing team for a comeback shrinks. But NPC kills can reverse the losing team’s status at the late game.

When watching or playing, once a team reaches 250, strategies should change for both teams. The winning team should maintain their two-cap hold and try not to be greedy with a three-cap. The losing team should try to stop the opponent’s income and attempt to get a two-cap.

Just a pet project. The win chances of a team reaching 250 points first is ~85%.

Spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12XOIN3VhEzHfkJvH97yGKc9KVSHA3aASx1nElkdKgCU/edit?usp=sharing

I chose 250 as the baseline. Before the 250 mark, it is still anyone’s game. After 250, we can predict, or roughly guess, the losing team’s chances for a comeback with the rough calculation in OP.

The column labeled “Spread at Win” represents the two team’s point spread after the match ends. There’s a second spreadsheet labeled “Stats” that calculates the percentage. DC’ed matches are omitted from the calculation.