Can time save us all (insightful)?

Can time save us all (insightful)?

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Posted by: Oh Snapalope.1378

Oh Snapalope.1378

Before you comment or reply please read the following paragraph or have full knowledge of the current matchmaking system workings(read the paragraph below if you don’t).

How matchmaking actually works at this moment: The system only considers the MMR of your own teammates but not the opponents. Your opponents are selected from division/pip ratings only. This means a team of 800 MMR players can be facing a team of 2000 MMR players. Grossly uneven matchups will exist because of this is how the system is programmed. Another way of looking at this system is the system can assign the winner and loser before the game starts.

This system has a few implications:
1. For the high skilled players, as in high MMR, you might not be as good as you think if you’ve been stomping teams. Frankly your winrate should be near flawless as you probably encountered a lot of lower MMR based teams while climbing divisions and not matched up against players of similar skill as you.

2. For the lower skilled players, as in low MMR, frankly some of the losses you can’t really do much about. Even if you played your hearts out and and tried your best, but the game could be decided from the start that you are going to lose.

3. The reason of this system is based on the fact that time will sort everyone out into correct division and pip ratings. For example, over time, the 800 MMR players will stay in a lower division and will only be matched up against other 800 MMR players as all the higher MMR players will have climbed on. However will time actually do its job? Probably not! I’ll explain at the end of this post.

The 1% ruining the 99% argument:

Below is what a very high MMR player have said about this system:

Hi all. I’m Zuko. I play tempest for Best Team North Africa, which is currently invited to participate in the Challenger Cup to qualify for Pro-League.

So the goal of this new matchmaking is to make the league system more skill-based. So if you have high mmr (the game thinks ur good) you will progress faster and easier. If you have low mmr (game thinks ur bad) you might have incredible difficulty getting out of amber. How it works is you get matched with players on ur team of similar mmr. The opposing team has team mates of a similar mmr on it. However, your teams average mmr and the enemy teams mmr can be vastly different. If you are one of the players in the top 1% then you have a 99% chance to face an enemy team with lower skill than you. Likewise if you are in the bottom 50% you have a 50% chance to fight people much better than you.

The idea is that the good players will progress to higher divisions quicker and leave only the bad to average players in the lower divisions. Then the average players will advance leaving only the bad players. So as the season goes on your matches should start becoming more balanced, and divisions will actually represent skill instead of time spent playing like last season.

Here’s the issue with that. While I love the fact that I am progressing quickly as a reward for being one of the more highly skilled players, this type of matchmaking can be quite discouraging to a majority of the playerbase. If the game doesn’t already rate you as good, you will be more likely to lose and the game will think more and more that you suck. Anet’s answer to this is as time progresses matches will become better. I fear however that this new matchmaking will cause many of the new, average, and bad players to just give up before matchmaking becomes balance again. Call it quits and go home. And let’s face it, that’s bad for the game. I would ask anet if having the few really good players progress faster is worth angering and harming the gaming experience of the vast majority of the player population. Also for the unlucky people who actually are bad whether it be from being unable to commit enough time or just lacking skill, there matches will never get better as they are always going to be below average and so will always have more of a chance to face teams better than them, and will always be on a losing streak and thus quit the game.

This is the general consensus of the people who are playing PvP right now. It is simply not fun to be either full on stomping a team or be fully stomped by a team. I much prefer to have a 50/50 chance of winning the game than a system predetermining that I should win or lose. Another thing is I personally don’t enjoy stomping teams, there is no fun to be had. What fun is there to face opponents that have no chance of fighting back? Absolutely none! I’m about to hit ruby and have done a fair share of stomps and I really disliked them and felt gross after the games. The bottom line is having a system determining whether you should win or lose is simply not fair and not fun. But we still have time on our side to sort out all the divisions right?

The question of time:
There is the question of whether we actually will have enough time for this system to sort everybody out before the end of the season. So far one week in, and the divisions are very far from balancing out. At this rate, just a crude guess, it will probably take at least another 2 weeks for the players to see some improvements in match quality. However 2 weeks might not even be enough because of the issue of of high MMR players moving up at different rates. For example, comparing a high MMR player who only plays 5 games per day to an equally high MMR player who plays 50 games a day. The latter player will move up faster while the other player move up slower and stay in the lower divisions longer. Also what if a bunch of high MMR players started playing late in the season? That will cause more deviations as well. Now thinking about it, this system is fully fair and fully functional if and only if everyone that plays PvP plays for the same amount of time per day and week, and also if they all play at the exact same time. Now is that possible?

tl;dr expect really bad matchups and unfair games until the season is over

(edited by Oh Snapalope.1378)

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Posted by: VuAnh.8105

VuAnh.8105

I truly believe season 2 is done for. There is no way to save it, so it is what it is.

Well done ANET!

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Posted by: JTGuevara.9018

JTGuevara.9018

I truly believe season 2 is done for. There is no way to save it, so it is what it is.

Well done ANET!

YUP, stick a fork in season 2, it’s DONE. ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED.

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Posted by: Oh Snapalope.1378

Oh Snapalope.1378

To be honest, the season is salvageable if they tweak the system by making it so that the opposing team’s MMR is taken into consideration as well. The odds of them doing it is very slim though.

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Posted by: Torafugu.1087

Torafugu.1087

Honestly the MM is no different from a program that directly hand out wins and losses. And it might as well do that and save everyone the frustration.

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Posted by: HipposWild.7185

HipposWild.7185

Remember in season one when all those people were exploiting the system by tanking their mmr or picking up an amber player either on an alt account or just any amber who knew how to use map chat so they could get to legend without actual legend skill? What was ANET’s response? Yeah… Would it have been hard to respond to people asking for the tag along player to be assigned the same rank as the max team member? NO. Did it take till after the season? Sure why not. Did they even do a kittening thing to players who abused the system and made the whole first season meaningless? Ohh yeah of course not. They gave them shinnies.

It’s like when someone collapses your world economy.. and you give them a kitten load of money for it.

Too busy celebrating a successful first season to see if it was actually working I guess. Does anyone expect them to suddenly change this approach?

#1 of all #1 players as ranked by a fair and unbiased committee

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Posted by: StickerHappy.8052

StickerHappy.8052

Remember in season one when all those people were exploiting the system by tanking their mmr or picking up an amber player either on an alt account or just any amber who knew how to use map chat so they could get to legend without actual legend skill? What was ANET’s response? Yeah… Would it have been hard to respond to people asking for the tag along player to be assigned the same rank as the max team member? NO. Did it take till after the season? Sure why not. Did they even do a kittening thing to players who abused the system and made the whole first season meaningless? Ohh yeah of course not. They gave them shinnies.

It’s like when someone collapses your world economy.. and you give them a kitten load of money for it.

Too busy celebrating a successful first season to see if it was actually working I guess. Does anyone expect them to suddenly change this approach?

You remember our match earlier?

Champion Illusionist Champion Hunter Champion Phantom Champion Magus

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Posted by: HipposWild.7185

HipposWild.7185

No I had a good streak followed by one game where it looked like two players just weren’t playing followed by some of the most aggravating games I’ve ever played including one where we 2v4ed far keeping it decapped for at least two minutes to look up and realize our other three team mates were not actually doing anything…. they were literally huddled up waiting for the other team to go off point I guess.

#1 of all #1 players as ranked by a fair and unbiased committee

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Posted by: StickerHappy.8052

StickerHappy.8052

No I had a good streak followed by one game where it looked like two players just weren’t playing followed by some of the most aggravating games I’ve ever played including one where we 2v4ed far keeping it decapped for at least two minutes to look up and realize our other three team mates were not actually doing anything…. they were literally huddled up waiting for the other team to go off point I guess.

And people say Matchmaking its working. This is not even whining. These are facts that people experience.

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Posted by: HipposWild.7185

HipposWild.7185

No I had a good streak followed by one game where it looked like two players just weren’t playing followed by some of the most aggravating games I’ve ever played including one where we 2v4ed far keeping it decapped for at least two minutes to look up and realize our other three team mates were not actually doing anything…. they were literally huddled up waiting for the other team to go off point I guess.

And people say Matchmaking its working. This is not even whining. These are facts that people experience.

Even when i was rolling a massive win streak I was kittened as hell about the system. It makes no sense whatsoever.

I mean when I was winning I was still fully aware that the reason for winning at this point doesn’t have to do with skill it has to do with: 1: you’ve been winning so you got tossed with other people who have been winning and tossed against people who probably weren’t. 2: You’ve managed not to lose by a significant enough margin that your MMR exceeded some poorly designed confidence interval and subsequently drops. Which actually means you haven’t hit a game where 4 of your team mates had massively inflated MMR skewing the systems interpretation of your odds of winning.
3: The dev team has not taken an intro stat class, and don’t understand what it actually means to be normally distributed or they wouldn’t keep kittening referencing it like a bunch of coked up toddlers.

With this system half the people in diamond this season are just going to be mini-trumps… Convinced it was their skill that brought them where they are and that they must be “the greatest you’ve ever seen”… all of a sudden for no reason.. all the while refusing to accept that the system is designed to pull a ton of people mistakenly up the ranks because MMR IS ESSENTIALLY MEANINGLESS IF YOU ARE TRYING TO TOSS ALL THE POSSIBLY GOOD PLAYERS ON THE SAME FREAKING TEAM WHILE HYPOTHESIS TESTING THOSE RESULTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#1 of all #1 players as ranked by a fair and unbiased committee

(edited by HipposWild.7185)

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Posted by: Darwin Iznang.1342

Darwin Iznang.1342

Easiest thing to say, is it’s just not fun being told you are fodder. Not the OPs fault, but I find this post disturbing at best.

Win 10 64bit | i5-4670K | ASUS ROG Maximus VI Hero
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Posted by: JTGuevara.9018

JTGuevara.9018

Remember in season one when all those people were exploiting the system by tanking their mmr or picking up an amber player either on an alt account or just any amber who knew how to use map chat so they could get to legend without actual legend skill? What was ANET’s response? Yeah… Would it have been hard to respond to people asking for the tag along player to be assigned the same rank as the max team member? NO. Did it take till after the season? Sure why not. Did they even do a kittening thing to players who abused the system and made the whole first season meaningless? Ohh yeah of course not. They gave them shinnies.

It’s like when someone collapses your world economy.. and you give them a kitten load of money for it.

Too busy celebrating a successful first season to see if it was actually working I guess. Does anyone expect them to suddenly change this approach?

LOL like the bankers and businessmen during the recession!

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Posted by: SoPP.7034

SoPP.7034

Too busy celebrating a successful first season to see if it was actually working I guess. Does anyone expect them to suddenly change this approach?

Too busy stroking the epeeen that is esl player.

ANet “We don’t want espurts but we continually make decisions that push towards it so if it happens that’s great”.

A warrior, a guardian, and an elementalist walk into an open field…
The Warrior turns to the guardian and says, “Did you hear something?”
Guardian replies, “No, but how’d the elementalist die?”

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Posted by: Oh Snapalope.1378

Oh Snapalope.1378

Even when i was rolling a massive win streak I was kittened as hell about the system. It makes no sense whatsoever.

I mean when I was winning I was still fully aware that the reason for winning at this point doesn’t have to do with skill it has to do with: 1: you’ve been winning so you got tossed with other people who have been winning and tossed against people who probably weren’t. 2: You’ve managed not to lose by a significant enough margin that your MMR exceeded some poorly designed confidence interval and subsequently drops. Which actually means you haven’t hit a game where 4 of your team mates had massively inflated MMR skewing the systems interpretation of your odds of winning.
3: The dev team has not taken an intro stat class, and don’t understand what it actually means to be normally distributed or they wouldn’t keep kittening referencing it like a bunch of coked up toddlers.

With this system half the people in diamond this season are just going to be mini-trumps… Convinced it was their skill that brought them where they are and that they must be “the greatest you’ve ever seen”… all of a sudden for no reason.. all the while refusing to accept that the system is designed to pull a ton of people mistakenly up the ranks because MMR IS ESSENTIALLY MEANINGLESS IF YOU ARE TRYING TO TOSS ALL THE POSSIBLY GOOD PLAYERS ON THE SAME FREAKING TEAM WHILE HYPOTHESIS TESTING THOSE RESULTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Unfortunately a lot of the stompers don’t understand the true reason that they are winning a lot. One fix I think would remedy the situation a lot is if they make it so that you do not lose any pips if there is a huge mismatch in MMR.

(edited by Oh Snapalope.1378)

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Posted by: StinkyLord.7950

StinkyLord.7950

Whats funny is that now the titles are nothing but a joke.

Instead of testing the your skills, you are being handed low tier enemy so you can rank up.

Season 1: System got exploited= FAIL

Season 2: System in favor of the same people who exploited= FAIL

GG instead of making a game worthy to be known in the gaming arena, you are creating a joke.

Its about time to fire some of the people in anet responsible for those fails.

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Posted by: Oh Snapalope.1378

Oh Snapalope.1378

So today I noticed probably a lot of people are quitting PvP because the system in place is just so bad right now. The queue times are getting kind of ridiculous. Ruby is sitting at 30 minutes for me right now. Tweak this junk of a system or this season is dead.

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Posted by: Torafugu.1087

Torafugu.1087

Took a bit of break making swords to join up with randoms from lobby and dabble in the season. won about 1/3 of them and never twice in a row. those were a least a little closer. But NOPE, It’s not fun and I don’t have the time to grind this crap.
This season’s entertainment value rank just below mining iron.

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Posted by: rummy.4102

rummy.4102

So today I noticed probably a lot of people are quitting PvP because the system in place is just so bad right now. The queue times are getting kind of ridiculous. Ruby is sitting at 30 minutes for me right now. Tweak this junk of a system or this season is dead.

Right on the mark. The time issue I can see, after a while it very well may sort itself out but by the time it does there will be no one left to play. I mean 2 weeks of a season to wait it out until matchmaking fixes itself? lol no way man, I was done after 4 days and getting emerald.

Guildlord of [Top] (Gate of Madness)

If you don’t get it right the first time, keep on sucking until you do!

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Posted by: Torafugu.1087

Torafugu.1087

So today I noticed probably a lot of people are quitting PvP because the system in place is just so bad right now. The queue times are getting kind of ridiculous. Ruby is sitting at 30 minutes for me right now. Tweak this junk of a system or this season is dead.

it’s going to get worse because people are quitting. the MM is trapping itself in the snowball hell. talking about irony.