Determining our odds of winning?

Determining our odds of winning?

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Posted by: tichorum.2415

tichorum.2415

Looking at the amount of points awarded or lost…is there a way to see or determine the odds of you winning a game?

Former PvP commentator for ESL & Arenanet.

I used to run the Academy Gaming tournaments for GW2.

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Posted by: Silentshoes.1805

Silentshoes.1805

Yes. That’s the key to everything.

It’s called the Expected Winner calculation. It is determined by the average MMR of each team.

Now, if it is WRONG (because the MMRs are not an accurate measure of skill for the match in question) then the points will be awarded unfairly as well.

The Alien (condi necro),That Wreckin Crew (Mesmer)
Silentshoes (Thief), Wind of the Woods (condi ranger)

(edited by Silentshoes.1805)

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Posted by: tichorum.2415

tichorum.2415

I think you misunderstood. Let me rephrase.

How can I see/determine what my odds are of winning against my opponent?

Former PvP commentator for ESL & Arenanet.

I used to run the Academy Gaming tournaments for GW2.

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Posted by: Silentshoes.1805

Silentshoes.1805

Sorry. Didn’t read closely enough.

No way to see it now. But I wish they would add it.

The Alien (condi necro),That Wreckin Crew (Mesmer)
Silentshoes (Thief), Wind of the Woods (condi ranger)

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Posted by: Justin ODell.9517

Justin ODell.9517

PvP Server Programmer

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It’s called the Expected Winner calculation. It is determined by the average MMR of each team.

Not just MMR, we also include the maximum roster size on each side.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/PvP_Matchmaking_Algorithm#Match_Prediction

Server Programmer (sPvP)
Isle of Janthir: Flux, Latch, Aegir

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Posted by: Deimos Tel Arin.7391

Deimos Tel Arin.7391

I think you misunderstood. Let me rephrase.

How can I see/determine what my odds are of winning against my opponent?

at the moment i think we can’t since the system does not show us the odds.

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Posted by: Silentshoes.1805

Silentshoes.1805

It’s called the Expected Winner calculation. It is determined by the average MMR of each team.

Not just MMR, we also include the maximum roster size on each side.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/PvP_Matchmaking_Algorithm#Match_Prediction

Meaning 4×5 taken into account?

The Alien (condi necro),That Wreckin Crew (Mesmer)
Silentshoes (Thief), Wind of the Woods (condi ranger)

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Posted by: Justin ODell.9517

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Justin ODell.9517

PvP Server Programmer

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Meaning 4×5 taken into account?

No, but things like 5 vs 1+1+1+1+1

Server Programmer (sPvP)
Isle of Janthir: Flux, Latch, Aegir

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Posted by: Silentshoes.1805

Silentshoes.1805

Meaning 4×5 taken into account?

No, but things like 5 vs 1+1+1+1+1

That’s good to know. 1+1+1+1+1 should get a deep adjustment based on experiences in this test period.

Can you adjust the weighting and then run through ALL the games since the patch in a simulation, until the Expected Winner starts hitting at 100%?

The Alien (condi necro),That Wreckin Crew (Mesmer)
Silentshoes (Thief), Wind of the Woods (condi ranger)

(edited by Silentshoes.1805)

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Posted by: Iason Evan.3806

Iason Evan.3806

That is good to know. I was playing my Mesmer a few hours ago(which I don’t play competitively very often)and was queued against at least 3 of “The Abjured”. We were all solo queued. They weren’t. The struggz was real.

Leader of The Guernsey Milking Coalition [MiLk] Sanctum of Rall

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Posted by: Justin ODell.9517

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Justin ODell.9517

PvP Server Programmer

Meaning 4×5 taken into account?

No, but things like 5 vs 1+1+1+1+1

That’s good to know. 1+1+1+1+1 should get a deep adjustment based on experiences in this test period.

Can you adjust the weighting and then run through ALL the games since the patch in a simulation, until the Expected Winner starts hitting at 100%?

Yes, though it will never hit 100%. Sometimes matches are just too close to tell.

Server Programmer (sPvP)
Isle of Janthir: Flux, Latch, Aegir