Guild Wars 2

Silentshoes.1805:

What do you think about this:

Your MMR changes based on whether your team performs better or worse than expected.

The expectation is based primarily on the MMRs of each team!

So…if the MMRs are inaccurate, the prediction is wrong, and the MMRs are adjusted incorrectly.

Glicko-2 doesn’t predict anything. A better analogy would be that it reacts. We think A is this and B is that, so if A beat B then it must be closer to that and vice versa. It improves its assessment of players by adjusting based on the result of each game. It is the outcome of these games over time that is the driving force.