Proof MMR is based on RNG, not skill.

Proof MMR is based on RNG, not skill.

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Posted by: shagwell.1349

shagwell.1349

I’m in an elevator.

[orz] below mediocre – we sponsor Arenanet
Piken Square EU, maybe soon on your server.

Proof MMR is based on RNG, not skill.

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Posted by: shagwell.1349

shagwell.1349

I win 2 matches for 22 points and lose 3 matches for 41 points. I win 2 matches and get back to silver, I lose 1 match and go back to bronze.
Is it my fault? Nope. Yes, I make mistakes every game, but I can’t win a game when we have a staff ele, two thieves and a bunker guardian that wipe 4v2 on mid and decide to chat in /t instead of playing.

Why do i get teams like that three to four games in a row?

Total of last games:
500:405
500:296
190:501
219:500
152:502

Trash your matchmaking, Anet.

[orz] below mediocre – we sponsor Arenanet
Piken Square EU, maybe soon on your server.

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Posted by: apharma.3741

apharma.3741

I win 2 matches for 22 points and lose 3 matches for 41 points. I win 2 matches and get back to silver, I lose 1 match and go back to bronze.
Is it my fault? Nope. Yes, I make mistakes every game, but I can’t win a game when we have a staff ele, two thieves and a bunker guardian that wipe 4v2 on mid and decide to chat in /t instead of playing.

Why do i get teams like that three to four games in a row?

Total of last games:
500:405
500:296
190:501
219:500
152:502

Trash your matchmaking, Anet.

Were you the staff ele, two thieves or guardian?

Oh wait you neglected to mention what you did to change the outcome of the match and believe me, as useless as your team is the other team isn’t much better.

So what did you do to change the outcome of the match if you honestly don’t think you should be in that division?

Proof MMR is based on RNG, not skill.

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Posted by: shagwell.1349

shagwell.1349

I win 2 matches for 22 points and lose 3 matches for 41 points. I win 2 matches and get back to silver, I lose 1 match and go back to bronze.
Is it my fault? Nope. Yes, I make mistakes every game, but I can’t win a game when we have a staff ele, two thieves and a bunker guardian that wipe 4v2 on mid and decide to chat in /t instead of playing.

Why do i get teams like that three to four games in a row?

Total of last games:
500:405
500:296
190:501
219:500
152:502

Trash your matchmaking, Anet.

Were you the staff ele, two thieves or guardian?

Oh wait you neglected to mention what you did to change the outcome of the match and believe me, as useless as your team is the other team isn’t much better.

So what did you do to change the outcome of the match if you honestly don’t think you should be in that division?

I won my 1v2 at their home base for 75% of the fights and died once in the whole match and we kept this point until they decided to 4v1 me because my team decided to 4v0 our home.

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Posted by: SlippyCheeze.5483

SlippyCheeze.5483

News flash: If you aren’t good enough to carry anymore, you are where you belong.

Exactly!

If you can’t carry 80% of the team, you are where you belong.

Or is this not sarcasm? I can’t tell anymore with these comments…

…wait, wait, just checking here:

If you are not good enough to carry 80 percent of your team vs 100 percent of the other team, you belong in bronze, right?

…or is it that if you are not good enough to carry 80 percent of your team vs the person carrying 80 percent of their team on the other side, you belong in bronze?

I’m just not quite clear which of those you were thinking of there, “The Game Slayer”.

Unless you meant that if you are not good enough to carry despite the ANet team having written code to always assign dead-weight to your team, and never the other team.

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Posted by: Smooth Penguin.5294

Smooth Penguin.5294

Ok, here’s further proof that your MMR is all based on RNG. I played 10 Ranked games on my alt, which doesn’t have HoT. My rating is 1600, Gold T3. And no, I played no awesome core meta. My ranger was longbow spam with moa pets.

My Main account is barely over 1350, Gold T1.

I don’t care what you say about skill and carry ability. MMR doesn’t care about that. All that matters is that the matchmaking algorithm finds 9 other similar rated players, and one side is stacked to win. Then you just have to hope that RNG places you on the winning side.

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Posted by: StickerHappy.8052

StickerHappy.8052

Ok, here’s further proof that your MMR is all based on RNG. I played 10 Ranked games on my alt, which doesn’t have HoT. My rating is 1600, Gold T3. And no, I played no awesome core meta. My ranger was longbow spam with moa pets.

My Main account is barely over 1350, Gold T1.

I don’t care what you say about skill and carry ability. MMR doesn’t care about that. All that matters is that the matchmaking algorithm finds 9 other similar rated players, and one side is stacked to win. Then you just have to hope that RNG places you on the winning side.

Wait. So you have 10 games = Placement matches right?

Its been common knowledge by now that Placement matches were a huge flaw BUT has nothing to do with MMR. Its all about luck. You went 7-3 on your matches which was great. Plus new accounts get boosted MMR soo…. = 1600 Rating.

Play more then see where you will end up.

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Posted by: Smooth Penguin.5294

Smooth Penguin.5294

New accounts start at 1200. So with 10 matches, I gained 400 rating on my non-HoT alt, all while just messing around. On my main, I placed in low Silver T2 on my try-hard Engi.

So from this, I deduce that when you play like crap, matchmaking forgives you and gives you better players to carry you. When you play well, matchmaking thinks you should be able to carry weak players, thus you more likely get partied with plebs who barely know how to use their skills.

Each time you play Ranked, you spin the RNG wheel, and hope for the best.

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Posted by: StickerHappy.8052

StickerHappy.8052

New accounts start at 1200. So with 10 matches, I gained 400 rating on my non-HoT alt, all while just messing around. On my main, I placed in low Silver T2 on my try-hard Engi.

So from this, I deduce that when you play like crap, matchmaking forgives you and gives you better players to carry you. When you play well, matchmaking thinks you should be able to carry weak players, thus you more likely get partied with plebs who barely know how to use their skills.

Each time you play Ranked, you spin the RNG wheel, and hope for the best.

This is still placement matches though, Again this is common knowledge that if you did good on your placement matches you will get a good spot.

Example.

My MMR pre season – 261. Placement matches 4-6. Final Rating: Silver t3

Talgo’s MMR pre season 245. Placement matches 7-3. Final Rating: Gold t(x)

Placement matches is luck.

Play more around 50 games and Let’s see your final rating.

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Posted by: Lucius.2140

Lucius.2140

New accounts start at 1200. So with 10 matches, I gained 400 rating on my non-HoT alt, all while just messing around. On my main, I placed in low Silver T2 on my try-hard Engi.

So from this, I deduce that when you play like crap, matchmaking forgives you and gives you better players to carry you. When you play well, matchmaking thinks you should be able to carry weak players, thus you more likely get partied with plebs who barely know how to use their skills.

Each time you play Ranked, you spin the RNG wheel, and hope for the best.

First: Placement matches give you a rating after your rating volatility isnt completly insane. They dont mean your real rating its that, only give you a number for starts.

Second: No, matchmaker try to give you a team of people with the more near skill ratings posible (except for a bug that happens with subistitutes that will be fixed after season). And try to do that with the other team and between teams.

Third: For you to actully be in a skill rating: hold there (going up and down) for 10-20 matches.

As is now what you are saying its you dont know what you are talking about xd.

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Posted by: Smooth Penguin.5294

Smooth Penguin.5294

This is still placement matches though, Again this is common knowledge that if you did good on your placement matches you will get a good spot.

Example.

My MMR pre season – 261. Placement matches 4-6. Final Rating: Silver t3

Talgo’s MMR pre season 245. Placement matches 7-3. Final Rating: Gold t(x)

Placement matches is luck.

Play more around 50 games and Let’s see your final rating.

There are a bunch of problems with your request to play 50 more games.

1) 50 more games of RNG could mean anything from dropping to Bronze, to getting into the top 250.

2) My alt is non-HoT. It’s not a viable way to play against OP HoT classes.

3) I didn’t do good in my placement matches. I got lucky.

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Posted by: Spoichiche.1290

Spoichiche.1290

Ok, here’s further proof that your MMR is all based on RNG. I played 10 Ranked games on my alt, which doesn’t have HoT. My rating is 1600, Gold T3. And no, I played no awesome core meta. My ranger was longbow spam with moa pets.

My Main account is barely over 1350, Gold T1.

I don’t care what you say about skill and carry ability. MMR doesn’t care about that. All that matters is that the matchmaking algorithm finds 9 other similar rated players, and one side is stacked to win. Then you just have to hope that RNG places you on the winning side.

“Further proof” . . .
I dream that someday, people in this forum would be able to use logic when trying to argue something.

You should know, like everyone with a positive iq who did 5 seconds of research on the topic should know, that the glicko-2 algorythm is not and was never design to be accurate with a low amount of matches played.
The algorythm is designed around playing a large enough samples of games so that your team mates’ skills vs your opponent’s becomes negligible. Because on average, your team mates have the exact same skill as your opponents, because you play with and against the average player in your division. That’s the very concept of average.
And because of that, the only unknown variable in the equation is you, and as you play more and more matches, the system will get a more and more accurate representation of your current skill level.

Of course there are issues with Anet’s implemantation of the algorythm that reduce the accuracy, like duo-q/low player population/bugs/decay affecting rating deviation…

Everyone in this forum already agrees that the placement matches are too volatile and are completely broken / rng-based.
That’s the only thing you ‘proved’ with this post, something that is already acknowledged by everyone. And there is quite a logical leap between ‘mmr after placement matches is based on rng’ and ‘mmr is based on rng’.

(edited by Spoichiche.1290)

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Posted by: ReaverKane.7598

ReaverKane.7598

lol have Helseth play a non meta overpowered HoT Spec. If anyone has a video of that link it.. id like to see. Good player isn’t someone who is carried by a build. just a fyi fact to add in. I know GW2 has brainwashed most people that it is the case.. but no it isn’t so overrated hearing his name all the time. reason this pvp is in the state it is… terrible balance (matchmaking doesn’t help but balance is the major issue) .

At least someone who understand.

There’s also a big factor why people don’t identify with their Rating, and that’s also on Arena Net.
The thing is, in any game, if you throw enough matches at any algorithm, you eventually beat the odds, and things even out, but you NEED to throw enough matches at the algorithm.

I mean, look at LoL, at my MMR, and because i don’t play that often, i’m 100% going to land a bronze rating, probably high bronze, but still bronze, with half a dozen matches a week, a decent player can go from Bronze to silver, especially if one avoids end-season with all the boosting and crap.
But it takes time, with 1-2 matches a day every other day it takes months to beat the random factor of the rest of the team, and in league it’s not hard for a decent player to carry (that’s why you have CARRY in the name of positions), especially because the games are long enough and tactical enough for a less mechanical skilled team to play around their faults. The game allows you to out-think the other team.

Now the problems with Guild Wars:
1) The balance is poor, and very seldom corrected (1 balance patch per season is kinda ridiculous), and usually very mechanically intense classes are much more rewarding than less mechanically intense ones.

2) The game was always marketed for a casual market, and decided to make a 180º with HoT and try to be more hardcore (way more grindy recipes in craft, Raids, power creep with Elite Specs, etc). The problem is, the majority is still a PvE-minded, casual friendly population.

3) 2 Month long seasons DO NOT allow for those casual minded players to evolve satisfyingly, it again promotes intensive farm and grind to go there. Sure Arena Net is using festivals and PvP seasons as fillers, but one thing does not preclude the other. You CAN have longer seasons, that allow more casual players to reach their perceived goal, and outnumber the bad matches.

As it is i’ve just quit PvP. I’ve been kept in limbo between Bronze and silver because i don’t play much, i had a kittenty second half of my placements (my matches was L, W, W, W, L, L, L, L, L, L. And honestly, some were me not being all there, but when your team needs 3 guys to kill a thief and still doesn’t manage to prevent him from stealing objectives). I know well that if i played through the pain, eventually i’d get out of Bronze hell, and start having better matches (i hope), but the thing is, there’s no time, season ends in 8 days, and i won’t really play enough, because i’m not having fun on most matches, it’s not fun when you get people afking after 1 death, it’s not fun when you beat 3 enemies to get an objective just to lose the other 2, it’s frustrating, and that deadline just makes it worse.

4) Conquest isn’t tactical enough, sure there’s a couple mechanics that allow you to beat the odds a bit, but still if both teams rotate marginally well, it will always come down to which team has the best mechanically skilled players or stronger classes.
This is worsened by the time-limited matches, which means that teams can snowball really fast, really hard.
Stronghold had a more tactical depth to it, and you could solo carry in it (i did so a number of times), but arena net in their infinite wisdom decided to remove the most solo-friendly map when they introduced solo/duo queue.

So that’s what you have now, and why it’s frustrating to a lot of people, although most fail to isolate the issue and blame it solely on Matchmaking and on duos (which honestly, i don’t think are any issue).

TLDR:
Seasons are too short, don’t allow the more casual players (the majority) to play enough to even out the odds. Classes aren’t really balanced. Matchmaking still isn’t that perfect. Conquest is too simplistic and time-constrained to allow for proper counter-play versus a more mechanically skilled or stronger-classed team.