The reason for so many huge losing streaks

The reason for so many huge losing streaks

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Posted by: Gewd.8125

Gewd.8125

The reason is quite obvious, not sure why so many people have issues understanding this.

Let’s say there is someone that should be at legend, they need to grind at least 60 wins and this is assuming they don’t lose a single game. The win streak system is basically a poor man’s ELO and capping the pip gain at 2 makes people’s divisions reach their true value slowly.

There are 3 solutions to fixing this problem and I have no idea why Anet again feels like they need to reinvent the ladder system.

1. Place people in higher divisions depending on their MMR.
2. Allow win-streaks to give you more than 2 pips which is laughably small.
3. Just make divisions directly equal to MMR.

Before anyone asks, I am almost diamond and I’ve only lost 2 games not including disconnectors.

(edited by Gewd.8125)

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Posted by: celldwell.5029

celldwell.5029

ranked is unplayable at legend+

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Posted by: MithranArkanere.8957

MithranArkanere.8957

I think we should change streaks to work in a different way.

Instead just counting consecutive wins, keep a ‘win ratio’ during each league, something like a ‘heat bar’ that appears under the pip tracks.

Each division would have two thresholds under which you start losing pips and win more pips, and past those thresholds you lose more or less pips.

The system would kick in after a certain number of matches to leave time for win ratio to build up.

So, even if you lose a couple of matches, as long as your win ratio stays high, bonus pips keep coming on wins, and a single loss won’t ruin that.

For example, in amber, losing pips will have a 0% win ratio threshold, meaning you never lose pips just like now, and a 50% win ratio upper threshold over which you gain extra pips per win, and bonus pips every 10%. So at 100% win ratio, you get 6 pips per win, one for high win ratio, 5 bonus for higher win ratio.

This could be tuned even further with decent personal scoring and MVP awards.

Wings vs a team with higher win ratios and more MVP awards would grant even more bonus pips.

SUGGEST-A-TRON says:
PAY—ONCE—UNLOCKS—ARE—ALWAYS—BETTER.
No exceptions!

(edited by MithranArkanere.8957)

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Posted by: gloflop.3510

gloflop.3510

Let’s say there is someone that should be at legend, they need to grind at least 60 wins and this is assuming they don’t lose a single game. The win streak system is basically a poor man’s ELO and capping the pip gain at 2 makes people’s divisions reach their true value slowly.

I understand your reasoning. However, you base everything at the assumption that the “game” knows which division you should be in.

The mmr is biased due to the first season. A player in a high division faced harder opponents. Hence, he lost more often and hence his mmr dropped. Now all players get pooled again. Then the player who had a win/loss ratio in division 5 of 1:3 gets now directed in a group of players who could not reach division 5 last season but had a win/loss ratio of 1:3 as well. The other side is a player who could not leave division 2 last season. However, at the end of the season he started playing more and (due to easier opponents) had a win/loss ratio of 2:3. This player now gets treated equally with a player from division 5 (season 1) who had a win/loss ratio of 2:3. Since the 2:3 will face the 1:3, I can tell you the likely outcome before.

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Posted by: Gewd.8125

Gewd.8125

Let’s say there is someone that should be at legend, they need to grind at least 60 wins and this is assuming they don’t lose a single game. The win streak system is basically a poor man’s ELO and capping the pip gain at 2 makes people’s divisions reach their true value slowly.

I understand your reasoning. However, you base everything at the assumption that the “game” knows which division you should be in.

The mmr is biased due to the first season. A player in a high division faced harder opponents. Hence, he lost more often and hence his mmr dropped. Now all players get pooled again. Then the player who had a win/loss ratio in division 5 of 1:3 gets now directed in a group of players who could not reach division 5 last season but had a win/loss ratio of 1:3 as well. The other side is a player who could not leave division 2 last season. However, at the end of the season he started playing more and (due to easier opponents) had a win/loss ratio of 2:3. This player now gets treated equally with a player from division 5 (season 1) who had a win/loss ratio of 2:3. Since the 2:3 will face the 1:3, I can tell you the likely outcome before.

If you had a high MMR last season and you belonged there, you would have a win ratio of 50% which means your MMR would not change.

Last season people were matched in their MMR range. If a player with 1000 MMR had a win ratio of 1:3, let’s say he would have 500 MMR. If a player had 2000 MMR and had a win ratio of 1:3 then he would maybe have 1500 MMR this season. MMR does not equal win ratio. It highly depends on who you are matched against.

I kept playing solo queue in legend last season stabilizing 8 pips in and frequently saw ESL players, and I have no issues with huge losing streaks.

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Posted by: Aenesthesia.1697

Aenesthesia.1697

ranked is unplayable at legend+

woah, you win ratio….

is that solo?

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Posted by: Jourdelune.7456

Jourdelune.7456

The reason is quite obvious, not sure why so many people have issues understanding this.

Let’s say there is someone that should be at legend, they need to grind at least 60 wins and this is assuming they don’t lose a single game. The win streak system is basically a poor man’s ELO and capping the pip gain at 2 makes people’s divisions reach their true value slowly.

There are 3 solutions to fixing this problem and I have no idea why Anet again feels like they need to reinvent the ladder system.

1. Place people in higher divisions depending on their MMR.
2. Allow win-streaks to give you more than 2 pips which is laughably small.
3. Just make divisions directly equal to MMR.

Before anyone asks, I am almost diamond and I’ve only lost 2 games not including disconnectors.

“3. Just make divisions directly equal to MMR.”

You are a genius.

Skill based rank system should rank you up on skills nor on grinding wins/pips.

Please, bring your post here:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/pvp/Skill-based-or-Grind-based-rank-system/first#post6036443

Copy paste or something.

Dal Aï Lhama (Tempest), Dal Lahu Akbar (DH), Lord Dhal of Dharma (Scrapper) 12k+ spvp games.
Former Team Captain of ggwp (ESL weekly), GLHF (AG), MIST[CORE] spvp alliance guild.
https://www.reddit.com/r/GuildWars2PvPTeams/

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Posted by: gloflop.3510

gloflop.3510

Let’s say there is someone that should be at legend, they need to grind at least 60 wins and this is assuming they don’t lose a single game. The win streak system is basically a poor man’s ELO and capping the pip gain at 2 makes people’s divisions reach their true value slowly.

I understand your reasoning. However, you base everything at the assumption that the “game” knows which division you should be in.

The mmr is biased due to the first season. A player in a high division faced harder opponents. Hence, he lost more often and hence his mmr dropped. Now all players get pooled again. Then the player who had a win/loss ratio in division 5 of 1:3 gets now directed in a group of players who could not reach division 5 last season but had a win/loss ratio of 1:3 as well. The other side is a player who could not leave division 2 last season. However, at the end of the season he started playing more and (due to easier opponents) had a win/loss ratio of 2:3. This player now gets treated equally with a player from division 5 (season 1) who had a win/loss ratio of 2:3. Since the 2:3 will face the 1:3, I can tell you the likely outcome before.

If you had a high MMR last season and you belonged there, you would have a win ratio of 50% which means your MMR would not change.

Last season people were matched in their MMR range. If a player with 1000 MMR had a win ratio of 1:3, let’s say he would have 500 MMR. If a player had 2000 MMR and had a win ratio of 1:3 then he would maybe have 1500 MMR this season. MMR does not equal win ratio. It highly depends on who you are matched against.

I kept playing solo queue in legend last season stabilizing 8 pips in and frequently saw ESL players, and I have no issues with huge losing streaks.

Yes, I tried to simplify the case. In fact it is more complex due to inactivity periods, classes,… Let us assume there was just one mmr per division. It will make life easier.

Let us say that the average mmr are 1000. Then the player with 1500 will climb in the divisions quickly until he reaches the point where his skill will pull his group down than pushes it up. We had several player suggesting to stop playing and continue the next day when you enter a loss streak. That is the consequence. You need to wait until the other players could catch up with you so that there are less skilled players left.

Now let us have a look at the 500 case. The player will be grouped with bad players from the beginning and has no chance to show his skill. His mmr will drop even further since he loses. Yes, it will drop less if he loses against a high-mmr-team. However, it doesnt matter as long as he loses. A loss in mmr is a loss in mmr.

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Posted by: Gewd.8125

Gewd.8125

“We had several player suggesting to stop playing and continue the next day when you enter a loss streak. That is the consequence. You need to wait until the other players could catch up with you so that there are less skilled players left.”

That is a consequence of any ladder system where everyone starts at the bottom no matter what you do. All you can do is to ensure that the good players rise faster and that happens by giving larger pip bonuses or setting people in higher divisions based on mmr at the start of each season.

“However, it doesnt matter as long as he loses. A loss in mmr is a loss in mmr.”

You don’t seem to understand how ELO works. If your mmr is really low compared to everyone else then your ELO loss per game will approach 0. Yes, it actually isn’t 0, but it will be something like -0.0001. If you are being put against a low mmr team and constantly losing, then you deserve to have bad team mates.

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Posted by: Mogar.9216

Mogar.9216

“We had several player suggesting to stop playing and continue the next day when you enter a loss streak. That is the consequence. You need to wait until the other players could catch up with you so that there are less skilled players left.”

That is a consequence of any ladder system where everyone starts at the bottom no matter what you do. All you can do is to ensure that the good players rise faster and that happens by giving larger pip bonuses or setting people in higher divisions based on mmr at the start of each season.

“However, it doesnt matter as long as he loses. A loss in mmr is a loss in mmr.”

You don’t seem to understand how ELO works. If your mmr is really low compared to everyone else then your ELO loss per game will approach 0. Yes, it actually isn’t 0, but it will be something like -0.0001. If you are being put against a low mmr team and constantly losing, then you deserve to have bad team mates.

you are missing the point here. lets say there are 10 players who have mmr 900,910,920,930,940 / 950,960,970,980,990 respectively. The guy with mmr of say 920 will have no wins until the guy with 970 moves out of his pip range assuming no one with mmr of 950 or higher move in to replace the ppl who moved out of his pip range. He is basicly kittened in today’s match making system. Because even though his mmr is only 30 blow the ‘magic’ line he will loss and loss and loss and watch his mmr drop and no way to recover. Where the guy with 950 mmr will win and win and watch his mmr get higher and higher as he climb. Until he climbs too fast and get into a pip range where he is blow that magic 50% line and he will be caught in to downward spiral himself.

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Posted by: UmbraNoctis.1907

UmbraNoctis.1907

Luckily there are more than 10 who play GW2 PvP. Also saying that it is impossible for the lower MMR team to win against a team with slightly higher MMr is wrong. As long the difference is not too big, everything is possible.

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Posted by: Mogar.9216

Mogar.9216

Luckily there are more than 10 who play GW2 PvP. Also saying that it is impossible for the lower MMR team to win against a team with slightly higher MMr is wrong. As long the difference is not too big, everything is possible.

That is just not true. The way gw2 match goes, 1 bad player have way more impact on a team than 1 good player. That is why 4 v 5 win is sooo rare. The way match making works today pretty much ensures the worst player is on the side with lower mmr. In my example the guy with 900 mmr will most likely insta melt to any of the player with 970+ mmr , even if the rest of his team can hold their own, the match is lost already.

Yes there are more than 10 players in any pip range that just means if you are in the lower 40% of the mmr you will need to endure MORE losses with large pool of players and watch your mmr drop even more. So more players just makes it worse.

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Posted by: UmbraNoctis.1907

UmbraNoctis.1907

Again – if the difference is not too big, the weaker team can win. And there are many player with pretty similar MMR and therefore teams with similar MMR. Small differences in MMR doesn’t really matter. First because it is not a 100% accurate measurement of a player’s skill (which would be impossible), and team comp/classes/builds and some other factors play an important role too.

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Posted by: Sirbeaumerdier.3740

Sirbeaumerdier.3740

“We had several player suggesting to stop playing and continue the next day when you enter a loss streak. That is the consequence. You need to wait until the other players could catch up with you so that there are less skilled players left.”

That is a consequence of any ladder system where everyone starts at the bottom no matter what you do. All you can do is to ensure that the good players rise faster and that happens by giving larger pip bonuses or setting people in higher divisions based on mmr at the start of each season.

“However, it doesnt matter as long as he loses. A loss in mmr is a loss in mmr.”

You don’t seem to understand how ELO works. If your mmr is really low compared to everyone else then your ELO loss per game will approach 0. Yes, it actually isn’t 0, but it will be something like -0.0001. If you are being put against a low mmr team and constantly losing, then you deserve to have bad team mates.

I agree with all you said here except for the fact this isn’t what is happening. If you have average or Low MMR you are paired with brand new or bad players and you loose which lead you to play with brand new bad players which make you loose and so on and so forth while the opposite is also true. In short, for a sizable portion of the pvp population MMR badly reflect real individual skill and engineer self-fulfilling prophecies.

Loosing to stronger players isn’t a problem. Being stuck with obviously bad ones who are not of your caliber at all is. Feeling powerless when going soloq is what irritate most people so they eventually reclaim what power they have left and, if they can, make their own team or, sadly, stop playing.

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Posted by: LordOtto.2650

LordOtto.2650

Before season 2 started I told on every forum post that this is a bad idea with this MMR! Nobody listened! My posts even got deleted! So now you can all watch how ppl disappear from pvp ranked! That’s why they removed average queue time, and say that’s a bug! Why on earth is a bug? It never happened, it happened intentionally, they removed it! They saw how many ppl doesn’t play their elite game!
I want one more league cross to get the wing, after that, I don’t think I ever gona play pvp ranked! And now this post will be deleted again, and I will have my three days ban from the forum… like always

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Posted by: Yasi.9065

Yasi.9065

Luckily there are more than 10 who play GW2 PvP. Also saying that it is impossible for the lower MMR team to win against a team with slightly higher MMr is wrong. As long the difference is not too big, everything is possible.

Sorry to burst your bubble… but I get the same players in both teams over and over and over and over….

Wishful thinking has it that there were at least 20+ players in everyone’s pip range… but nope. Not enough players anymore.

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Posted by: cptaylor.2670

cptaylor.2670

Luckily there are more than 10 who play GW2 PvP. Also saying that it is impossible for the lower MMR team to win against a team with slightly higher MMr is wrong. As long the difference is not too big, everything is possible.

Sorry to burst your bubble… but I get the same players in both teams over and over and over and over….

Wishful thinking has it that there were at least 20+ players in everyone’s pip range… but nope. Not enough players anymore.

It is the same people over and over again. Occasionally they switch sides, but generally if you’re in a losing team you will be in that same losing team for another 20 losses until by the grace of whatever higher being may or may not exist in the universe, you happen to win out of sheer luck. (Of course only to lose the next one so that the never-ending grind continues.)

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Posted by: Gewd.8125

Gewd.8125

you are missing the point here. lets say there are 10 players who have mmr 900,910,920,930,940 / 950,960,970,980,990 respectively. The guy with mmr of say 920 will have no wins until the guy with 970 moves out of his pip range assuming no one with mmr of 950 or higher move in to replace the ppl who moved out of his pip range. He is basicly kittened in today’s match making system. Because even though his mmr is only 30 blow the ‘magic’ line he will loss and loss and loss and watch his mmr drop and no way to recover. Where the guy with 950 mmr will win and win and watch his mmr get higher and higher as he climb. Until he climbs too fast and get into a pip range where he is blow that magic 50% line and he will be caught in to downward spiral himself.

What point?

So you want the teams to be perfectly balanced so everyone has a 50% chance to win at all times? Then how is anyone supposed to climb the ladder if they keep losing 1 and winning 1? That was the problem with season 1.

Losing streaks are supposed to happen when people climb up the ladder. You can only make them smaller by giving larger pip bonuses and having people start higher at the beginning of the season.

The point of my thread is to make this process faster so noobs don’t get stomped so long.