good luck with that I spent 10 bucks on Mystery Boxs and got 1 mini everything else was junk its just quick cash for arenanet and the pets don’t even count towards any title. With 65 bucks I could get a new released game instead I am not saying I don’t want to support the game but when I buy something with gems.. i expect to get it not gamble it away that’s for vegas
Thank you for giving us a rough idea of our chances
You’re welcome. Remember though that they are just that – Rough numbers. You can get lucky and do it with 20 chests, you can also buy 100 chests and not get them. This is just an average.
Posting for general info.
Using Wiki drop rate statistics:
On average you will get 1 minipet per 13.43 chest. Let’s say 14 chests to be sure.
10 chests are 800 gems. Let’s add the last 4 in at the discounted price too. This equals
1040 gems.
If you are a collector and want all 3 pets, you will probably not get them all with 3120 gems. (1040×3)
Actually the exact chance of that happening is 2/9 (22%).
Buying an additional minipet will make the total cost 4160 gems and give a 12/27 (44.4%) chance of getting all 3 minipets.
This generelly means that most people (55.6%) will need to pay at least 5200 gems to get all 3 minipets.
The most generous price for 4000 gems is 50$ – That is 80 gems a dollar.
Using this, 5200 gems will cost 65$.
__________________________________________________________________
Note: Some margin errors expected. Remember recorded data only gives approximate drop rates.
Note: Remember we rounded up half a chest in the beginning. You might be able to save 100 gems somewhere.
They aren’t forcing you to buy them so why complain?
Posting for general info.
Using Wiki drop rate statistics:
On average you will get 1 minipet per 13.43 chest. Let’s say 14 chests to be sure.
10 chests are 800 gems. Let’s add the last 4 in at the discounted price too. This equals
1040 gems.
If you are a collector and want all 3 pets, you will probably not get them all with 3120 gems. (1040×3)
Actually the exact chance of that happening is 2/9 (22%).
Buying an additional minipet will make the total cost 4160 gems and give a 12/27 (44.4%) chance of getting all 3 minipets.
This generelly means that most people (55.6%) will need to pay at least 5200 gems to get all 3 minipets.
The most generous price for 4000 gems is 50$ – That is 80 gems a dollar.
Using this, 5200 gems will cost 65$.
__________________________________________________________________
Note: Some margin errors expected. Remember recorded data only gives approximate drop rates.
Note: Remember we rounded up half a chest in the beginning. You might be able to save 100 gems somewhere.
They aren’t forcing you to buy them so why complain?
Ofc they arent forcing us, but they ARE taking advantage of us that really want these minis.. they are intentionally forcing money from us, in a very dirty manor instead of just letting us buy them straight of the gemstore.. we have to gamble to get them.. ive bought 30 boxes and only got 1 mini. Losing respect for Anet to be honest, a cash grab has commenced..sad, but true
They aren’t forcing you to buy them so why complain?
Please enlighten me. Where did I complain again?
I complained in other threads. This one simply states generel info about what people should expect. I dig that you automatically jumped to the non-force argument. Please read what people write.
Posting for general info.
Using Wiki drop rate statistics:
On average you will get 1 minipet per 13.43 chest. Let’s say 14 chests to be sure.
10 chests are 800 gems. Let’s add the last 4 in at the discounted price too. This equals
1040 gems.
If you are a collector and want all 3 pets, you will probably not get them all with 3120 gems. (1040×3)
Actually the exact chance of that happening is 2/9 (22%).
Buying an additional minipet will make the total cost 4160 gems and give a 12/27 (44.4%) chance of getting all 3 minipets.
This generelly means that most people (55.6%) will need to pay at least 5200 gems to get all 3 minipets.
The most generous price for 4000 gems is 50$ – That is 80 gems a dollar.
Using this, 5200 gems will cost 65$.
__________________________________________________________________
Note: Some margin errors expected. Remember recorded data only gives approximate drop rates.
Note: Remember we rounded up half a chest in the beginning. You might be able to save 100 gems somewhere.
They aren’t forcing you to buy them so why complain?
Ofc they arent forcing us, but they ARE taking advantage of us that really want these minis.. they are intentionally forcing money from us, in a very dirty manor instead of just letting us buy them straight of the gemstore.. we have to gamble to get them.. ive bought 30 boxes and only got 1 mini. Losing respect for Anet to be honest, a cash grab has commenced..sad, but true
Technically you open a thousands chests and never get a pet.
You could also open 3 and get all of them.
Statistics do not change the nature of RNG, which is to stimulate random odds.
This is similar to gambler’s luck, each time you try your luck you do not actually raise the odds. They are the exactly the same each time you roll the dice, it’s simply a human logic fallacy.
What is the point of my post ? Random is random, so don’t waste too much money on it as whatever will be, will be
And congratulations Mr. Joe. Please state your point?
Why would you complain about not getting them and spend more money to get them. You take the chance to get them. Arenanet never said open 20 boxes and get a mini. So why say oh collectors have to spend so much. If you want the minis because your a collector don’t complain about the cash spent. Because I see a lot more money wasters up the road.
I gave myself an early christmas present by buying 11 boxes and turned out to get 3 mini’s which was enough for me to get the quaggan i really wanted to have.
I thought these minipets dropped more often than what it actually does (i guess i was extreamly lucky) and i feel sorry for those who spent a lots of money into these boxes in the hopes of getting at least 1 mini pet.
IMO if Arenanet will continue with this idiotic RNG system they have in place atm, i believe it will be their grave one day.
And congratulations Mr. Joe. Please state your point?
Why would you complain about not getting them and spend more money to get them. You take the chance to get them. Arenanet never said open 20 boxes and get a mini. So why say oh collectors have to spend so much. If you want the minis because your a collector don’t complain about the cash spent. Because I see a lot more money wasters up the road.
You are completely running off tracks here. Either I’m not the person you think I am, or you are not reading anything. I did not once complain in this thread, nor did I mention opening any boxes. I refrained from buying any because I don’t like RNG. I have simply offered people an average cost for the minipets. I’m not sure what you are trying to achieve here.
When I saw this topic, I went and bought 10 chests, even though I told myself I wasn’t going to buy any. I’m not going to buy any more.
From 10 chests I received 0 minis. That’s luck for you.
Can’t say I’m angry or anything. I knew perfectly well there was a chance I wouldn’t get anything. That’s how it works. No harm, no foul.
And congratulations Mr. Joe. Please state your point?
Why would you complain about not getting them and spend more money to get them. You take the chance to get them. Arenanet never said open 20 boxes and get a mini. So why say oh collectors have to spend so much. If you want the minis because your a collector don’t complain about the cash spent. Because I see a lot more money wasters up the road.
You are completely running off tracks here. Either I’m not the person you think I am, or you are not reading anything. I did not once complain in this thread, nor did I mention opening any boxes. I refrained from buying any because I don’t like RNG. I have simply offered people an average cost for the minipets. I’m not sure what you are trying to achieve here.
It just seems like from your opening post you are complaining about the RNG.
It just seems like from your opening post you are complaining about the RNG.
I do, in every other part of the forum But if you state which part seems like complaining I’ll gladly change it. The original post was only meant to be informative.
And congratulations Mr. Joe. Please state your point?
Why would you complain about not getting them and spend more money to get them. You take the chance to get them. Arenanet never said open 20 boxes and get a mini. So why say oh collectors have to spend so much. If you want the minis because your a collector don’t complain about the cash spent. Because I see a lot more money wasters up the road.
Seems like we have a troll or somebody who just doesn’t understand what he read. :p
No where in this thread was the OP complaining. Please understand what you’re reading before posting something stupid like this.
Well, why didn’t people learn from the Halloween event? I’m guessing, each time a new event comes up and new players ‘might’ be joining the game, someone should post threads about the gambling boxes and the potential odds of actually getting something you want, even if anet takes down those threads – they might stay up long enough for people to think twice.
protest this travesty of a patch -
Get it taken down -
Do whatever it takes if you care about this game -
Thanks for the post if you read this there is a slight error in your otherwise awesome calculations. I too have been watching the wiki drop rate page. One thing to note when you get a tonic or the mortars, these will almost always come in groups of 2. So those items have inflated numbers on the drop rate page. If you halve the mortar and tonic numbers the chance of getting a pet is roughly 11% instead of the 7% you used.
I’d guess that the pets are more likely set to a 10% drop rate. If I understand your calculations correctly, this would adjust the total to 4000 gems or $50. Which is still a lot to be sure
Thanks for the post if you read this there is a slight error in your otherwise awesome calculations. I too have been watching the wiki drop rate page. One thing to note when you get a tonic or the mortars, these will almost always come in groups of 2. So those items have inflated numbers on the drop rate page. If you halve the mortar and tonic numbers the chance of getting a pet is roughly 11% instead of the 7% you used.
I’d guess that the pets are more likely set to a 10% drop rate. If I understand your calculations correctly, this would adjust the total to 4000 gems or $50. Which is still a lot to be sure
That actually changes the numbers! Thank you for bringing this up. I did not know of this, as that info was not on the wiki. Do they always come in batches of 2? Or just sometimes? If we don’t know how often they come 2 at a time, I will have to take the entire thing down, as the data will be completely invalid.
The statistics reported on the wiki pages for the Wintersday Mystery Box drop rates are incorrect, due to the method being used for calculating them. Some of our item packages use more than one loot table to determine what you get from opening them. Whenever you open a Wintersday Mystery Box, it randomly drops items selected from 2 tables, each having specific items and their own drop rates.
We’ve seen people mention the low drop rates of Foostivoo from Wintersday Mystery Box and would like to remind people that the primary way to obtain this miniature is from the Mystic Forge, by combining other minis (wiki link).
The statistics reported on the wiki pages for the Wintersday Mystery Box drop rates are incorrect, due to the method being used for calculating them. Some of our item packages use more than one loot table to determine what you get from opening them. Whenever you open a Wintersday Mystery Box, it randomly drops items selected from 2 tables, each having specific items and their own drop rates.
We’ve seen people mention the low drop rates of Foostivoo from Wintersday Mystery Box and would like to remind people that the primary way to obtain this miniature is from the Mystic Forge, by combining other minis (wiki link).
Thank you.
A couple posts up corrected the error. It would now cost an average of $50, rather then $65. Still pretty ridiculous. Not to even mention that someone with bad luck on the RNG could spend much more than that.
The greed is as sad as it is short sighted.
I think pretty much the entire gem store suffers from overpriced items, which severely limits the appeal. Much revenue is probably lost to this. As the exchange rate between Gems and Gold increases, the value of items in the gem store suffers further. If I want to support the game financially, trading my gems for gold is almost always the best option, which is a shame because a fairly priced cash shop with items worth buying represents a huge, untapped revenue stream.
The statistics reported on the wiki pages for the Wintersday Mystery Box drop rates are incorrect, due to the method being used for calculating them. Some of our item packages use more than one loot table to determine what you get from opening them. Whenever you open a Wintersday Mystery Box, it randomly drops items selected from 2 tables, each having specific items and their own drop rates.
We’ve seen people mention the low drop rates of Foostivoo from Wintersday Mystery Box and would like to remind people that the primary way to obtain this miniature is from the Mystic Forge, by combining other minis (wiki link).
Thank you.
I opened 20 wintersday boxes.
All I got was temporary tonics. I did not get a single mini-pet. How do you explain that?
The statistics reported on the wiki pages for the Wintersday Mystery Box drop rates are incorrect, due to the method being used for calculating them. Some of our item packages use more than one loot table to determine what you get from opening them. Whenever you open a Wintersday Mystery Box, it randomly drops items selected from 2 tables, each having specific items and their own drop rates.
We’ve seen people mention the low drop rates of Foostivoo from Wintersday Mystery Box and would like to remind people that the primary way to obtain this miniature is from the Mystic Forge, by combining other minis (wiki link).
Thank you.
Wow. This was over expectation, and actually answered another thread of mine, asking about the Foostivoo drop. Thanks for clarifying! It’s really nice to see some official response. Thought you had gone on holiday.
Edit: Removed original post due to not knowing the loot tables. Anyone who feels like it are welcome to continue the research. Also my original post is quoted a few times to anyone who wish to see it.
The statistics reported on the wiki pages for the Wintersday Mystery Box drop rates are incorrect, due to the method being used for calculating them. Some of our item packages use more than one loot table to determine what you get from opening them. Whenever you open a Wintersday Mystery Box, it randomly drops items selected from 2 tables, each having specific items and their own drop rates.
We’ve seen people mention the low drop rates of Foostivoo from Wintersday Mystery Box and would like to remind people that the primary way to obtain this miniature is from the Mystic Forge, by combining other minis (wiki link).
Thank you.
Well, if we were given the official drop rates, people would not have to guess based on small samples. Of course, anyone with half a brain can pretty well guess the reason that official rates are not given.
Anyway, I’m not sure what that method has to do with it, because stuff is going to drop at a certain rate from the boxes, regardless of how that rate is arrived at. Probably the real issues with the data are a small sample size and self-selection bias – by which I mean people are probably more likely to post if they think their drops are “interesting” in some way" – based on what drops are obtained. Also, it’s a wiki, so there could always be trolls that make stuff up…
Posting for general info.
Using Wiki drop rate statistics:
On average you will get 1 minipet per 13.43 chest. Let’s say 14 chests to be sure.
10 chests are 800 gems. Let’s add the last 4 in at the discounted price too. This equals
1040 gems.
If you are a collector and want all 3 pets, you will probably not get them all with 3120 gems. (1040×3)
Actually the exact chance of that happening is 2/9 (22%).
Buying an additional minipet will make the total cost 4160 gems and give a 12/27 (44.4%) chance of getting all 3 minipets.
This generelly means that most people (55.6%) will need to pay at least 5200 gems to get all 3 minipets.
The most generous price for 4000 gems is 50$ – That is 80 gems a dollar.
Using this, 5200 gems will cost 65$.
__________________________________________________________________
Note: Some margin errors expected. Remember recorded data only gives approximate drop rates.
Note: Remember we rounded up half a chest in the beginning. You might be able to save 100 gems somewhere.
They aren’t forcing you to buy them so why complain?
Ofc they arent forcing us, but they ARE taking advantage of us that really want these minis.. they are intentionally forcing money from us, in a very dirty manor instead of just letting us buy them straight of the gemstore.. we have to gamble to get them.. ive bought 30 boxes and only got 1 mini. Losing respect for Anet to be honest, a cash grab has commenced..sad, but true
How could you lose respect? They make money off of folks like you… and dont make ANYTHING off of people who dont buy from the gemstore (like myself)…
If you spent $65 on gems… eh you just spent ~4 months for an active sub in any other MMO…. no big deal imo.
Wow. This was over expectation, and actually answered another thread of mine, asking about the Foostivoo drop. Thanks for clarifying! It’s really nice to see some official response. Thought you had gone on holiday.
Hey Treeline. I read your original post but was at work and now can’t refer to it anymore. I was wondering how you arrived at 5200 gems?
If you take a probability of 1/14 and calculate the binomial distribution for X>=3 then you get a probability of 55%. So more than half of people should have three pets after opening 40 boxes (=3200 gems or 40$). If I may, I think you made the mistake of calculating for X=3 and not X>=3. My apologies if I’m wrong but it seems like a likely mistake to make.
Well, if we were given the official drop rates, people would not have to guess based on small samples. Of course, anyone with half a brain can pretty well guess the reason that official rates are not given.
Anyway, I’m not sure what that method has to do with it, because stuff is going to drop at a certain rate from the boxes, regardless of how that rate is arrived at. Probably the real issues with the data are a small sample size and self-selection bias – by which I mean people are probably more likely to post if they think their drops are “interesting” in some way" – based on what drops are obtained. Also, it’s a wiki, so there could always be trolls that make stuff up…
No, the stuff on the wiki is actually unusable. You get more than one thing from the boxes, don’t you? The way the wiki is set up makes it look like whatever else you got with a pet you had gotten instead of a pet, so it makes it seem like the drop rate is much lower than it actually is.
I agree on having official drop rates, though. Then we could make informed decisions and no-one would have a right to complain. Also, I like numbers.
The entire post is quoted towards the top of the thread if you want to see it. Already confirmed that the data is faulty though, so no need to try any further
Yeah, I’ve seen the Anet response – was hoping they’d give us some actual figures, though.
Anyway, I just wanted to know why we had two different results, because I’m planning to do some more calculations on things we have numbers on – and prepare for the bright future when they give us official drop rates.
Posting for general info.
Using Wiki drop rate statistics:
On average you will get 1 minipet per 13.43 chest. Let’s say 14 chests to be sure.
10 chests are 800 gems. Let’s add the last 4 in at the discounted price too. This equals
1040 gems.
If you are a collector and want all 3 pets, you will probably not get them all with 3120 gems. (1040×3)
Actually the exact chance of that happening is 2/9 (22%).
Buying an additional minipet will make the total cost 4160 gems and give a 12/27 (44.4%) chance of getting all 3 minipets.
This generelly means that most people (55.6%) will need to pay at least 5200 gems to get all 3 minipets.
The most generous price for 4000 gems is 50$ – That is 80 gems a dollar.
Using this, 5200 gems will cost 65$.
__________________________________________________________________
Note: Some margin errors expected. Remember recorded data only gives approximate drop rates.
Note: Remember we rounded up half a chest in the beginning. You might be able to save 100 gems somewhere.
This is the original post. Enjoy
I’m not good with statistics though. This was my best shot. I study software I like numbers too, as long as it’s 0 and 1’s q:
No, the stuff on the wiki is actually unusable. You get more than one thing from the boxes, don’t you? The way the wiki is set up makes it look like whatever else you got with a pet you had gotten instead of a pet, so it makes it seem like the drop rate is much lower than it actually is.
I agree on having official drop rates, though. Then we could make informed decisions and no-one would have a right to complain. Also, I like numbers.
Oh, I see. The problem is that there is no column for people to list the number of boxes they opened. I assumed that would be one of the stats.
Ofc they arent forcing us, but they ARE taking advantage of us that really want these minis.. they are intentionally forcing money from us, in a very dirty manor instead of just letting us buy them straight of the gemstore.. we have to gamble to get them.. ive bought 30 boxes and only got 1 mini. Losing respect for Anet to be honest, a cash grab has commenced..sad, but true
Just like how Baseball Card companies took “advantage” years of printing rare cards. Growing up back then people didn’t really complain about it, as it was the thrill of finding that rare card in the pack you just bought. Now it’s a “need” that people force onto the situation.
Given with the idea though of separate loot tables, gives the explanation though of why many people had shown different probabilities in their tables on this. I would agree though that showing the official tables wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing, but there’s going to be that wave of people that are going to complain at the percentage of the drops regardless.
We’ve seen people mention the low drop rates of Foostivoo from Wintersday Mystery Box and would like to remind people that the primary way to obtain this miniature is from the Mystic Forge, by combining other minis (wiki link).
The problem isn’t acquiring Foostivoo, I think the problem for most people is that I could acquire 6 mini-Infinirariums, 2 mini-festive golems, and Foostivoo, never once seeing a mini-snowman.
The problem isn’t acquiring Foostivoo, I think the problem for most people is that I could acquire 6 mini-Infinirariums, 2 mini-festive golems, and Foostivoo, never once seeing a mini-snowman.
I agree, most of the problems would have been solved by not making them account bound.
The statistics reported on the wiki pages for the Wintersday Mystery Box drop rates are incorrect, due to the method being used for calculating them. Some of our item packages use more than one loot table to determine what you get from opening them. Whenever you open a Wintersday Mystery Box, it randomly drops items selected from 2 tables, each having specific items and their own drop rates.
We’ve seen people mention the low drop rates of Foostivoo from Wintersday Mystery Box and would like to remind people that the primary way to obtain this miniature is from the Mystic Forge, by combining other minis (wiki link).
Thank you.
A couple posts up corrected the error. It would now cost an average of $50, rather then $65. Still pretty ridiculous. Not to even mention that someone with bad luck on the RNG could spend much more than that.
The greed is as sad as it is short sighted.
I think pretty much the entire gem store suffers from overpriced items, which severely limits the appeal. Much revenue is probably lost to this. As the exchange rate between Gems and Gold increases, the value of items in the gem store suffers further. If I want to support the game financially, trading my gems for gold is almost always the best option, which is a shame because a fairly priced cash shop with items worth buying represents a huge, untapped revenue stream.
costed me exactly 50 bucks to get all the pets (exactly 50 boxes, got the last mini on the last box, which was $50 bucks getting 10 money-sink-boxes/800 gems or $62.5 buying them individually).
Opened 20 boxes. Received 2 golems.
Now, my opinion on these chest. If account bound minis are in the gem store, they should be a much higher chance of getting all the greens. Something like the mad king thorn event, and make them cost more gems if necessary. Another point; if the minis are NOT account bound then they could be a RNG with lower drop rate. Most people do not want to spend 30-70 dollars/ euros in hopes of getting all 4 of theses minis.
I have to agree with most of the population, that theses minis are somewhat of a let down.
Escape From L A [EfLA]
Guild Leader
Maguuma – Yak’s Bend
I agree, most of the problems would have been solved by not making them account bound.
/Second. People bring up Baseball cards and other CCG type stuff, but in those games, you can trade cards. So maybe you spend $50 to buy a bunch of packs, and you luck into getting an ultra-rare card along with a bunch of other stuff, or maybe you decide to just spend $50 straight to buy it from someone else who has it.
This system could bee seen as much more fair if there were a secondary market on which players could sell unwanted pulls, and buy desired items at a market rate.
“If you spent as much time working on [some task] as
you spend complaining about it on the forums, you’d be
done by now.”
