Analysis of the tournament: Silver League
that is true, UNLESS IoJ beats YB/SBI or YB/SBI beat FA…
-MagPro
Yaks Bend (born and proud)
Yaks Bend (born and proud)
Ties are broken by Glicko, so there really are no ties.
Second Child
It’s kind of kittened how YB and SBI wont get to face eachother to determine who truly deserves third place. kittened matchup system.
that is true, UNLESS IoJ beats YB/SBI or YB/SBI beat FA…
Won’t happen.
The rest of the matchups for IoJ will be: YB/IoJ /NSP and SBI/IoJ/CD. These matches have already happened (YB/IoJ/NSP twice). Similarly FA’s future matches have already happened: HoD/FA/SBI and HoD/FA/YB.
Ties are broken by Glicko, so there really are no ties.
I was under the impression that Season 1 allowed ties at the end (at least in terms of the rewards) and that this season would be the same. Did they say otherwise somewhere (makes a HUGE difference in terms of the reward tickets).
Ties are broken by Glicko, so there really are no ties.
I was under the impression that Season 1 allowed ties at the end (at least in terms of the rewards) and that this season would be the same. Did they say otherwise somewhere (makes a HUGE difference in terms of the reward tickets).
A number of other players have confirmed the Glicko tiebreaker (maybe from the dev streams?). That said, it’d be nice to get an official response.
that is true, UNLESS IoJ beats YB/SBI or YB/SBI beat FA…
Won’t happen.
The rest of the matchups for IoJ will be: YB/IoJ /NSP and SBI/IoJ/CD. These matches have already happened (YB/IoJ/NSP twice). Similarly FA’s future matches have already happened: HoD/FA/SBI and HoD/FA/YB.
Just because a mach up has happened doesn’t mean the results won’t change. YB/IoJ/NSP was extremely close the first time, and that was with IoJ getting effectively doubleteamed.
It’s tough to predict how seasons will end because until the final couple of weeks, there’s absolutely no incentive for servers to push their hardest. It doesn’t matter if IoJ or YB wins this week because only the final week will determine who places higher.
Second Child
Ties are broken by Glicko, so there really are no ties.
I was under the impression that Season 1 allowed ties at the end (at least in terms of the rewards) and that this season would be the same. Did they say otherwise somewhere (makes a HUGE difference in terms of the reward tickets).
A number of other players have confirmed the Glicko tiebreaker (maybe from the dev streams?). That said, it’d be nice to get an official response.
that is true, UNLESS IoJ beats YB/SBI or YB/SBI beat FA…
Won’t happen.
The rest of the matchups for IoJ will be: YB/IoJ /NSP and SBI/IoJ/CD. These matches have already happened (YB/IoJ/NSP twice). Similarly FA’s future matches have already happened: HoD/FA/SBI and HoD/FA/YB.
Just because a mach up has happened doesn’t mean the results won’t change. YB/IoJ/NSP was extremely close the first time, and that was with IoJ getting effectively doubleteamed.
It’s tough to predict how seasons will end because until the final couple of weeks, there’s absolutely no incentive for servers to push their hardest. It doesn’t matter if IoJ or YB wins this week because only the final week will determine who places higher.
i call bs on double teamed.. But you are right, it CAN change…
-MagPro
Yaks Bend (born and proud)
Yaks Bend (born and proud)
Ties are broken by Glicko, so there really are no ties.
I was under the impression that Season 1 allowed ties at the end (at least in terms of the rewards) and that this season would be the same. Did they say otherwise somewhere (makes a HUGE difference in terms of the reward tickets).
A number of other players have confirmed the Glicko tiebreaker (maybe from the dev streams?). That said, it’d be nice to get an official response.
that is true, UNLESS IoJ beats YB/SBI or YB/SBI beat FA…
Won’t happen.
The rest of the matchups for IoJ will be: YB/IoJ /NSP and SBI/IoJ/CD. These matches have already happened (YB/IoJ/NSP twice). Similarly FA’s future matches have already happened: HoD/FA/SBI and HoD/FA/YB.
Just because a mach up has happened doesn’t mean the results won’t change. YB/IoJ/NSP was extremely close the first time, and that was with IoJ getting effectively doubleteamed.
It’s tough to predict how seasons will end because until the final couple of weeks, there’s absolutely no incentive for servers to push their hardest. It doesn’t matter if IoJ or YB wins this week because only the final week will determine who places higher.
i call bs on double teamed.. But you are right, it CAN change…
NSP focussed IoJ. YB did it’s own thing (most likely attacked whoever had the most paper towers). It didn’t end up close at all though by the end of the week.
It is possible a server will pull off a miracle. But IMO that’s what it’s going to take to change the final result.
The only analysis that matters is that leagues don’t work. Not when glicko can’t adjust to pre-season server transfers fast enough for accurate seeding. Not when wvw has a scoring system designed for teams of roughly equal size.
Chaba Tangnu
Founding member of [NERF] Fort Engineer and driver for [TLC] The Legion of Charrs
RIP [SIC] Strident Iconoclast
Founding member of [NERF] Fort Engineer and driver for [TLC] The Legion of Charrs
RIP [SIC] Strident Iconoclast
i call bs on double teamed.. But you are right, it CAN change…
NSP posted here admitting they were playing for second and focused their attention on IoJ. YB probably didn’t work in conjunction with them, but probably saw IoJ as a larger threat than NSP.
NSP focussed IoJ. YB did it’s own thing (most likely attacked whoever had the most paper towers). It didn’t end up close at all though by the end of the week.
It is possible a server will pull off a miracle. But IMO that’s what it’s going to take to change the final result.
http://www.gw2score.com/server/Yak%27s-Bend
http://www.gw2score.com/server/Northern-Shiverpeaks
http://mos.millenium.org/servers/view/32/165
Notice the borderland focus and EB objectives hit by both servers. First place was <10k difference. Had NSP not focused on IoJ, the results could have easily gone the other way.
But at the risk of getting this closed for being a match-up thread, I’ll simply reiterate that you can’t predict the final results based on past match-ups. Again, there’s no incentive for servers to make serious pushes until the final few weeks. Moreover, servers will get bored of the same stale match-ups over and over again (see HoD and FA this week).
It wouldn’t take a miracle to see a shift in predicted rankings.
Second Child
The sad thing is that (barring a miracle), by week 3/4 we already had equilibrium in that rankings (by points) of each server will be the same as the end of week 3 for odd number weeks and week 4 for even number weeks.
- IoJ can’t beat SBI/YB and will always beat NSP/CD.
Well, IoJ isn’t gonna beat SBI. YB, they might have a chance, if they don’t get too far behind on the weekends. They did make up 14k overnight on YB last week, when YB had a 20k lead. They cut SBI’s lead in half last Tuesday overnight, but we weren’t gonna play that game anymore, so we crushed them on Thursday, to ensure they couldn’t do it again.
IoJ also was losing to NSP, on Wednesday, of their first meeting. IoJ also beat YB multiple weeks in a row before the season started.
PvE players are getting their achievements, and some WvW players are getting burned out, so numbers are shrinking in WvW atm.
First time FA and SBI fought HoD together, FA only beat SBI by 17k.
YB can’t compete in the match with HoD / FA, but if they could get enough support to beat FA one week, they would have 2nd.
If SBI beats FA one week, they get 3rd.
If IoJ beats YB one week, SBI gets 3rd.
If IoJ beats SBI one week, they can get 4th.
If NSP beats IoJ one week, well, you know where I am going with this.
We still have plenty of weeks left, and people have to show up. We also don’t know how many people transferred last week, and are sitting in EoTM, waiting to come into WvW on their new server (and they would’ve transferred to a 1-3ish server in order to get better rewards).
Silver league is exciting to me.
i call bs on double teamed.. But you are right, it CAN change…
NSP posted here admitting they were playing for second and focused their attention on IoJ. YB probably didn’t work in conjunction with them, but probably saw IoJ as a larger threat than NSP.
NSP focussed IoJ. YB did it’s own thing (most likely attacked whoever had the most paper towers). It didn’t end up close at all though by the end of the week.
It is possible a server will pull off a miracle. But IMO that’s what it’s going to take to change the final result.
http://www.gw2score.com/server/Yak%27s-Bend
http://www.gw2score.com/server/Northern-Shiverpeaks
http://mos.millenium.org/servers/view/32/165Notice the borderland focus and EB objectives hit by both servers. First place was <10k difference. Had NSP not focused on IoJ, the results could have easily gone the other way.
But at the risk of getting this closed for being a match-up thread, I’ll simply reiterate that you can’t predict the final results based on past match-ups. Again, there’s no incentive for servers to make serious pushes until the final few weeks. Moreover, servers will get bored of the same stale match-ups over and over again (see HoD and FA this week).
It wouldn’t take a miracle to see a shift in predicted rankings.
Don’t forget that IoJ was beating YB on a weekly basis before the seasons started, and moved up to 9th (T3) for the final match before seasons. I even think they beat SBI that week (although, we did take it off, in preparation of the season).
But, NSP came close to taking out IoJ, until IoJ put them out of reach with a nice overnight surge on Wednesday night. Then Thursday night they got YB within sight, but didin’t have the man power Friday afternoon to finish it off.
I know IoJ has more coverage than the other 2 at night, and their NA could pulls some overtime and join up with the OCX/SEA crew and win the match, if they wanted to. Maybe, they have planned when they are going to do it.
Well, IoJ isn’t gonna beat SBI. YB, they might have a chance, if they don’t get too far behind on the weekends. They did make up 14k overnight on YB last week, when YB had a 20k lead. They cut SBI’s lead in half last Tuesday overnight, but we weren’t gonna play that game anymore, so we crushed them on Thursday, to ensure they couldn’t do it again.
I was personally commanding that Tuesday night against SBI, when we removed the SM wp, SBI’s entire EB corner, and two of their BL keeps. We couldn’t keep up the momentum because SBI probably realized we could make serious pushes the next few days and because our Oceanics were tired from the YB push the previous week.
Our night crew can do some serious damage if everyone’s on board and we have strong commanders tagged up, but that’s rarely the case nowadays. The reason, again, is that no one feels any incentive to play seriously and burn themselves out. IoJ will have the same number of points as YB/SBI (depending on even/odd week), regardless of whether or not we win the mid-season matches.
The structure of Leagues make it so that there’s no point in playing your hardest until the very end of the season. I’m not saying IoJ will beat YB/SBI, since I’m sure the other two servers will also come out much stronger at the end of the season, but it’s silly to make such strong predictions based on the matches now.
The way I see it, YB/SBI/IoJ would be a fairly even and well-rounded match-up post-season.
Second Child
You can have surges where you make up lots of points in a short period of time, but in the end, they’re unsustainable. Population/coverage gaps are too big between even servers that are adjacent in ranking.
The NSP vs IoJ a couple weeks ago is a good example. NSP was doing great but that’s because people were putting in LOTS of exta hours. But that couldn’t be sustained. In the end NSP was crushed by a fairly large margin.
You can have surges where you make up lots of points in a short period of time, but in the end, they’re unsustainable.
That’s exactly the benefit of this structure of this season. You don’t have to consistently beat your opponents. You only have to beat them for a week. Pulling in overtime at the end of the season is all you need to do to ensure the rewards. There’s no reason to put in consistent effort and get burned out.
Population/coverage gaps are too big between even servers that are adjacent in ranking.
Are you even in Silver League? If you were, you’d realize that the population/coverage gaps between YB/SBI/IoJ aren’t that large. Again, the first YB/IoJ/NSP was extremely close in score. The reason that the scores don’t appear as close as they should is because (1) servers aren’t going to go all out mid-season when end-season is all that matters and (2) there’s always a weakest server (CD/NSP) that fails to relieve pressure from the second place server. If the match-up were YB/SBI/IoJ, the scores would actually be very close, assuming all three servers were fighting it out without an agenda.
The NSP vs IoJ a couple weeks ago is a good example. NSP was doing great but that’s because people were putting in LOTS of exta hours. But that couldn’t be sustained. In the end NSP was crushed by a fairly large margin.
Again, that wasn’t so much NSP as it was YB. YB spent a lot of resources shutting IoJ down early. NSP just reaped the benefits by backcapping what YB papered and taking our assets while we were focused on YB.
Second Child
(edited by mango.9267)
Population/coverage gaps are too big between even servers that are adjacent in ranking.
Are you even in Silver League? If you were, you’d realize that the population/coverage gaps between YB/SBI/IoJ aren’t that large. Again, the first YB/IoJ/NSP was extremely close in score. The reason that the scores don’t appear as close as they should is because (1) servers aren’t going to go all out mid-season when end-season is all that matters and (2) there’s always a weakest server (CD/NSP) that fails to relieve pressure from the second place server. If the match-up were YB/SBI/IoJ, the scores would actually be very close, assuming all three servers were fighting it out without an agenda.
Mid-season, end-season.. it won’t make a difference. You’ll go all out but your opponents will go all out also. As for YB/SBI/IoJ: Irrelevant because that’s a matchup that won’t happen. The fact is that it’ll be YB/IoJ/NSP and SBI/IoJ/CD every other week and the way it always goes is that the weakest server in the matchup will be hitting IoJ most often; if for no other reason than the fact that the top server will have more upgraded towers and so harder to hit.
The NSP vs IoJ a couple weeks ago is a good example. NSP was doing great but that’s because people were putting in LOTS of exta hours. But that couldn’t be sustained. In the end NSP was crushed by a fairly large margin.
Again, that wasn’t so much NSP as it was YB. YB spent a lot of resources shutting IoJ down early. NSP just reaped the benefits by backcapping what YB papered and taking our assets while we were focused on YB.
Wow. No credit to NSP.
The way I see it, YB/SBI/IoJ would be a fairly even and well-rounded match-up post-season.
Sadly, 1 of us will always be stuck with FA and the other T2 leftover flavor of the week (HoD / DB/ Mag).
Mid-season, end-season.. it won’t make a difference. You’ll go all out but your opponents will go all out also.
Yes, that’s true, but the question is who’s been holding back more. For example, I see a lot of YB’s NA players staying up late into OCX. The same isn’t true for IoJ. Thus, if push came to shove, it seems IoJ gains more by going all out. Of course, I don’t know how hard YB/SBI are trying, so I can’t make an accurate assessment. The point is that it’s far from clear how the matches will play out at the end of the season.
As for YB/SBI/IoJ: Irrelevant because that’s a matchup that won’t happen. The fact is that it’ll be YB/IoJ/NSP and SBI/IoJ/CD every other week and the way it always goes is that the weakest server in the matchup will be hitting IoJ most often; if for no other reason than the fact that the top server will have more upgraded towers and so harder to hit.
I brought up YB/SBI/IoJ to address the claim that coverage was too large between adjacently ranked servers. SBI, YB, and IoJ are adjacently ranked but not too different in coverage/population. I’m aware the match-up won’t happen during the season.
Wow. No credit to NSP.
I credit NSP for playing strategically, but it’s pretty obvious that NSP alone doesn’t have the coverage or population to match IoJ’s PPT. I doubt NSP would have been able to pull off what they did if the third server didn’t focus on shutting IoJ down early.
The way I see it, YB/SBI/IoJ would be a fairly even and well-rounded match-up post-season.
Sadly, 1 of us will always be stuck with FA and the other T2 leftover flavor of the week (HoD / DB/ Mag).
Unless Anet changes the RNG for post-season match-ups to allow more variation. Then there’s hope that one the T2 servers get a low-roll and T3 servers actually get a good match-up.
Second Child
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