Guild Wars 2

Based in what all servers have done so far (until this half round 4) and from what they can still achieve with next matches (rounds 5, 6 and 7), some prevision can be made to know the final scores!

Season 1: the score simulator (part 1 of 2)
For Europe (EU)

Gold League
1st – Vizunah Square ……. 35 pts.
2nd – Jade Sea ……. 29 pts.
3rd – Seafarer’s Rest ……. 27 pts.
4th – Baruch Bay ……. 25 pts. *
4th – Piken Square ……. 25 pts. *
6th – Elona Reach ……. 15 pts.
7th – Kodash ……. 13 pts.
8th – Riverside ……. 11 pts.
9th – Augury Rock ……. 9 pts.

() Baruch Bay and Piken Square will end WvW Season 1 at fourth place, with same punctuation.

Silver League
1st – Desolation ……. 35 pts.
2nd – Abaddon’s Mouth ……. 27 pts. *
2nd –Gandara ……. 27 pts. *
4th – Aurora Glade ……. 25 pts.
5th – Miller’s Sound ……. 21 pts.
6th – Far Shiverpeaks ……. 19 pts. *
6th – Fort Ranik ……. 19 pts. **
8th – Gunnar’s Hold ……. 9 pts.
9th – Underworld ……. 7 pts.

() Abaddon’s Mouth and Gandara, will end WvW Season 1 at second place, with same punctuation.
(*) Far Shiverpeaks and Fort Ranik, will end WvW Season 1 at sixth place, with same punctuation.

Bronze League
1st – Drakkar Lake ……. 35 pts.
2nd – Ruins of Surmia ……. 31 pts.
3rd – Dzagonur ……. 27 pts.
4th – Blacktide ……. 21 pts. *
4th – Ring of Fire ……. 21 pts. *
6th – Arborstone ……. 17 pts. *
6th – Fissure of Woe ……. 17 pts. *
8th – Whiteside Ridge ……. 13 pts.
9th – Vabbi ……. 7 pts.

() Blacktide and Ring of Fire, will end WvW Season 1 at fourth place, with same punctuation.
(*) Arborstone and Fissure of Woe, will end WvW Season 1 at sixth place, with same punctuation.

(to be continued)

Season 1: the score simulator (part 2 of 2)

For North America (NA)

Gold League
1st – Blackgate ……. 35 pts.
2nd –Jade Quarry ……. 27 pts.
3rd – Sanctum of Rall ……. 21 pts. *
3rd – Tarnished Coast ……. 21 pts. *
5th – Sea of Sorrows ……. 13 pts.
6th – Maguuma ……. 7 pts.

(*) Sanctum of Rall and Tarnished Coast, will end WvW Season 1 at third place, with same punctuation.

Silver League
1st – Fort Aspenwood ……. 35 pts.
2nd – Stormbluff Isle ……. 31 pts.
3rd – Yak’s Bend ……. 29 pts.
4th – Borlis Pass ……. 21 pts.
5th – Dragonbrand ……. 19 pts.
6th – Crystal Desert ……. 17 pts. *
6th – Ehmry Bay ……. 17 pts. *
8th – Isle of Janthir ……. 11 pts.
9th – Northern Shiverpeaks ……. 9 pts.

(*) Crystal Desert and Ehmry Bay, will end WvW Season 1 at sixth place, with same punctuation.

Bronze League
1st – Henge of Denravi ……. 35 pts.
2nd – Sorrow’s Furnace ……. 31 pts.
3rd – Darkhaven ……. 29 pts.
4th – Gate of Madness ……. 25 pts.
5th – Ferguson’s Crossing ……. 21 pts.
6th – Devona’s Rest ……. 15 pts.
7th – Eredon Terrace ……. 13 pts. *
7th – Kaineng ……. 13 pts. *
9th – Anvil Rock ……. 7 pts.

(*) Eredon Terrace and Kaineng, will end WvW Season 1 at seventh place, with same punctuation.

This sort of ORACLE or merely predictions will fail if:
A… Double teamed (classic 2×1 provide by the matchup model, either due to some sort of agreement or due to randomly events);
B… Big Guilds transferred (from a stabilized server to another one who show evidences to be the best bet to win);
C… Server community not enough committed with the matchup (either due to “fairweathers” or if an entire community think the final result is already done.

If anyone out there has your own different prediction?
If yes, please share your opinion here, but kitten try to avoid the easy flame and sorrow comments, I will be grateful in advance

You failed at basic math :>

Ladders will be way different.

@Luna, you’re from Piken Square and currently at 2nd place (EU gold league) and according with my table, PS going to be 4th at the end of Season 1 league. In resume, I understand your disillusion coming from my calculations, sorry about this point of view of mine, in December we talk about the final results

And yes, maybe I’m going to fail in the attempt to call for servers attention for them do something unpredictable, but far worse is never have tried to succeed!

Based on the weekend result, I’d say your prognostications were reasonably calculated. But have you looked at the MOS lately? Baruch is pushing SFR atm, and looks like Piken has secured the win for this week, whereas before when you made these claims JS had been leading by 25K+.

This week was key in mathematical eligibility for 2nd, 3rd and 4th place spots.

If Baruch keeps pushing SFR, it’s possible there will be a three-way tie for third place between SFR/BB and JS. Which is cool, because Devon has said in the event of a tie, all servers get the same reward.

I think this season was a fail. I already see option C happening, and as a result it has made WvW way less exciting than it was before leagues. They can not have any type of competition until they sort out some of the major issues facing WvW. What is the point of a league if the outcome, because of how it is set up, is already determined before it starts.

Well if you looked at the server rating before the leagues began, half of the leagues already knew who would win before it started. The leagues did not fail. It encourage people to wvw more but the imbalances between servers have frustrated many players. Leagues showed everyone(pvers) something that was already known since the brake up of the tier system. The higher tiers have more people and more coverage which lead to them winning the match-up.

After season one, or even now fow will be empty, void of players. Tired of going up against these enormous zergs. You can probably write off 3 bottom servers in december.

Ulion.5476:

Well if you looked at the server rating before the leagues began, half of the leagues already knew who would win before it started. The leagues did not fail. It encourage people to wvw more but the imbalances between servers have frustrated many players. Leagues showed everyone(pvers) something that was already known since the brake up of the tier system. The higher tiers have more people and more coverage which lead to them winning the match-up.

dont say that. Sure some servers have a humongous numerical advantage, but certain servers make up for their lack of numbers by being superior at inter-guild/commander coordination.
Many said that certain servers were sure to win their league beforehand, the speculations where many, still are. However, it is certain that even though some servers are “bigger” they are not better, i would like to say EU silver league was an example of that, however, that would be a lie….

However, what i find interesting is that blackgate pulled away from JQ. I always thought of blackgate as old-desolation. The runner up that holds it’s ground, but thats it… So well, my predictions were terribly off in case of NA Gold.

Prysin.8542:

dont say that. Sure some servers have a humongous numerical advantage, but certain servers make up for their lack of numbers by being superior at inter-guild/commander coordination.
Many said that certain servers were sure to win their league beforehand, the speculations where many, still are. However, it is certain that even though some servers are “bigger” they are not better, i would like to say EU silver league was an example of that, however, that would be a lie….

However, what i find interesting is that blackgate pulled away from JQ. I always thought of blackgate as old-desolation. The runner up that holds it’s ground, but thats it… So well, my predictions were terribly off in case of NA Gold.

From my experience on my old server, we had the better guild we would win our map but lose the others. My old guild would normally wipe zerg bigger than ours and it came to a point where the enemy zergs would avoid open field fights. They just try to follow us and defend bases. We still would lose the match-up.

Bigger server do not mean all of their guilds/players are more skilled it just means their are more wvw guilds/players. JQ is an example of that they have some very good guilds but on average most of them are not that good. As far as NA gold league it was already know that the t1 server would stomp the t2 server. Yet no one knew which t1 server bought the most wvw guilds until after the league began. That happens to be BG atm.

FC will be 4th in bronze NA, not GoM.

I would not count JQ out of 1st in gold league just yet. We have a lot of fight in this server.

@ Jayne, you could be right on your predictions, much respect for that, but I believe Seafarer’s Rest will win over Baruch Bay, have friends at SFR and they tell me how very well motivated they are (main commander at SFR is playing 8 to 10 hours a day to keep his server on the head). However surprises can happen and besides this, Piken Square have the worst matches until the end, facing SFR (round 5), Vizunah (round 6) and both SFR+Vizunah (round 7). Check WvW Season 1 Schedule, for incoming rounds:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/wuv/wuv/WvW-Season-1-Schedule/first#post3054223

@ Solstice, we shall see if Ferguson’s Crossing can keep it up and reach what your server desire most, after all at round two, FC (2nd) matchup and beat GoM (3rd), however Gate of Madness have best schedule matches than Fergusson until the end of Season 1. Please check the link above for next matches

@ Jet, maybe Jade Quarry achieves the 1st place (matchups pre-league would point JD the winner) , but according with my observation since league started, Blackgate is giving the best cards in NA Gold league and shows no mercy until now.

I think end of the 1st season in EU silver will looks like this:

EU Silver League:
1st – Desolation
2nd – Abaddon’s Mouth – Gandara
3rd – ?
4th – Aurora Glade
5th – Miller’s Sound – Far Shiverpeaks – Fort Ranik
6th – ?
7th – ?
8th – Gunnar’s Hold
9th – Underworld

I hope fight for 5th place will be quite intensive , and here I wish to say good luck to MS and FR and have nice fights ….

I actually think that Piken will do a 3rd place and SFR on 4th. I’ve seen SFR weaker than Piken on this MU.

Who are you putting on 2nd place then? I really can’t see anyone except Piken or SFR taking 2nd place.

@ Chicho Gosho, my bet for EU Gold League – 2nd place, is going for Jade Sea

Jade Sea server has the best matches among the 4 who in the present time leading (V+JS+SFR+PS). For the very last 3 rounds:
- no longer matchup with Vizunah
- no longer matchup with Piquen Square
- will have match with Seafarer’s Rest at round 6 (Jade Sea [FR],Elona Reach [DE],Seafarer’s Rest)

Jet.4795:

I would not count JQ out of 1st in gold league just yet. We have a lot of fight in this server.

The next three weeks will put you guys to the test. You’d have to beat BG next week and place above BG the last week to win. You also will have to win against TC and SoR next week while BG has their bi-week.

So it’s possible but BG just has much better odds at the moment.

Chicho Gosho.6507:

Who are you putting on 2nd place then? I really can’t see anyone except Piken or SFR taking 2nd place.

You’re right, only PS and SFR can be 2nd., the most possible outcomes are 2 I think :

1)
1st. VS
2nd. SFR and PS
3rd. JS

2)
1st. VS
2nd. SFR
3rd. JS

JS will face only SFR in the next upcoming weeks, so the 3rd. place is assured, PS need to repeat the performance of the first week or beat on of the two colossus, otherwise it will end up 4th.

Piken is most stacked server. Should win league easily with that manpower. Of course we will help viz in last matchup.

If Jade Sea does finish 2nd…then that will be French servers 1st & 2nd…

Well done France/French Canadians dominating all of Europe!

Napoleon is alive and well.

Piken seems to be stronger than sfr. If, as someone said, sfr is putting all the efforts this week, I think that have no options to beat piken, based on the piken we faced last week and what they have done this one against Jade and elona.

Also, both Jade and Baruch have easier matches than piken an sfr, so there is the possibility to see Jade Sea finishing #2 and Baruch #4 with sfr.

For me, the winners in EU of this first league will be VS for destroying everyone who has faced them, Jade and Baruch for starting the league at #6 and #7 and finishing it on the top, and Kodash, for starting as the weakest and being the surprise at the low part of the league.

Almost at the end of Round 4, I’m free to think the results will no longer suffer alterations. Then, according with my initial predictions, verified from 17 matchups scheduled, I probably failed prediction in 2 matches where surprises happened:

Europe, Gold League = Piken Square (now 5 points instead of 3 predicted); Jade Sea (now 3 points instead of 5 predicted); Kodash (1 point)

North America, Bronze League = Ferguson’s Crossing (5 points); Anvil Rock (so far 3 points instead of 1 predicted); Eredon Terrace (so far 1 point instead of 3 predicted)

Note: However, regarding to NA bronze league, it’s too close to call “failed prediction”, because Eredon Terrace (current score: 185 557) server started strong recover to reach Anvil Rock (current score: 188 043) since early this morning and when still remaining 8+ hours to play in North America time zone!

Round 5 (PREDICTIONS) for this Friday afternoon (Europe) and evening (North America), according with the displayed borderlands and servers performance since round 1:

EUROPE, in order of appearance = Red, Blue, Green borderland
(between parenthesis = prediction, in points)

Gold League
Augury Rock (1 point); Jade Sea (5 points); Kodash (3 points)
Riverside (1 point); Piken Square (3 points); Seafarer’s Rest (5 points)
Elona Reach (1 point); Baruch Bay (3 points); Vizunah Square (5 points)
Silver League
Far Shiverpeaks (3 points); Miller’s Sound (5 points); Underworld (1 point)
Aurora Glade (1 point); Gandara (5 points); Abaddon’s Mouth (3 points)
Gunnar’s Hold (1 point); Fort Ranik (3 points) Desolation (5 points)
Bronze League
Whiteside Ridge (3 points); Arborstone (5 points); Vabbi (1 point)
Blacktide (1 point); Ring of Fire (3 points); Dzagonur (5 points)
Ruins of Surmia (3 points); Fissure of Woe (1 point); Drakkar Lake (5 points)

NORTH AMERICA, in order of appearance = Red, Blue, Green borderland
(between parenthesis = prediction, in points)

Gold League
Sea of Sorrows (1 point); Blackgate (5 points); Jade Quarry (3 points)
Maguuma (1 point); Tarnished Coast (3 points); Sanctum of Rall (5 points)
SiLver League
Isle of Janthir (3 points); Yak’s Bend (5 points); Northern Shiverpeaks (1 point)
Borlis Pass (1 point) Dragonbrand (3 points); Stormbluff Isle (5 points)
Ehmry Bay (3 points); Crystal Desert (1 point); Fort Aspenwood (5 points)
Bronze League
Gate of Madness (5 points); Eredon Terrace (3 points) Anvil Rock (1 point)
Darkhaven (5 points); Ferguson’s Crossing (3 points) Kaineng (1 point)
Sorrow’s Furnace (3 points) Devona’s Rest (1 point); Henge of Denravi (5 points)

All invited to share your own prediction for the incoming round 5, regarding a single matchup or an entire league (bronze+silver+gold).

If possible, try to share predictions before today reset start (for reasons of value and courage LOL), will welcome all because that’s what this thread was created, to keep it positive against all odds!

Sigmar.2185:

Gold League
Augury Rock (1 point); Jade Sea (5 points); Kodash (3 points)
Riverside (1 point); Piken Square (3 points); Seafarer’s Rest (5 points)
Elona Reach (1 point); Baruch Bay (3 points); Vizunah Square (5 points)

I agree with AR(1)-JS(5)-KO(3)
RS(1)-PS(3 or 5)-SFR could be won by SFR or PS, probably depends only on which one is attacked more by RS.
I hope and think:
ER(3)-BB(1)-Vizu(5), because BB cannot make many points during BBs prime-time (i.e. after 2am) as Vizu will take the night points and BB without night points will loose.

Wrong FC is going to kick DH’s butt in NA week 5.

just watch.

@Dayra, nice predictions

@Solstice, could be as you predicted by the looking past round 2, when Fergunson’s Crossing (2nd, scored 233 461) met Darkhaven (1st, scored 235 617) and it was hard fought! For sure I will watch this match

Congratulations Anvil Rock, for the server 2nd place (round 4) over Eredon Terrace by 1 172 ppt diferencial! According my table predictions base in servers performance, was a complete surprise, your a Phoenix server?

So far, Fergunson’s Crossing behind Darkhaven, but guess it was a bad reset for FC, right Solstice?

More predictions are welcome

Sigmar.2185:

Round 5 (PREDICTIONS) for this Friday afternoon (Europe) and evening (North America), according with the displayed borderlands and servers performance since round 1:

EUROPE, in order of appearance = Red, Blue, Green borderland
(between parenthesis = prediction, in points)

Gold League
Augury Rock (1 point); Jade Sea (5 points); Kodash (3 points)
Riverside (1 point); Piken Square (3 points); Seafarer’s Rest (5 points)
Elona Reach (1 point); Baruch Bay (3 points); Vizunah Square (5 points)

I think you have this one ^^ pretty much spot on, perhaps Elona (3 point) and BB (1 point) due to the 3rd opponent, but anything can happen.

Sigmar.2185:

Silver League
Far Shiverpeaks (3 points); Miller’s Sound (5 points); Underworld (1 point)
Aurora Glade (1 point); Gandara (5 points); Abaddon’s Mouth (3 points)
Gunnar’s Hold (1 point); Fort Ranik (3 points) Desolation (5 points)

FSP (5 point), Miller’s (3 point), UW (1 point)
FSP has massive prime time numbers that extend to earlier hours, but has a weak morning crew, however last time FSP faced Miller’s, Miller’s had a very good morning crew, but will it be enough? since FSP had a tough time last week against Deso, and everyone is pushing in 110% and pulling out the big guns.

Aurora Glade (1 point); Gandara (5 points); Abaddon’s Mouth (3 points)
AG, Gan, AM is gonna be one to watch very tight call, they all have some sort of coverage with AM being the biggest which is gonna make them prime target for the other 2, I think AM will get torn to bits prime time by AG’s guild groups and Gandara’s tactics, but will keep in line with PPT with their numbers in coverage, but like you I think AM will come 2nd to Gandara and AG slightly trailing AM it will be very close with no weak opponent to utilize.

Gunnar’s Hold (3 point); Fort Ranik (1 points) Desolation (5 points)
GH and FR are so close but FR being the slightly weaker imo, Don’t know if they are still with them on FR but there was a big NA guild, that gave them a huge advantage, and done them well. But even so, if they are their biggest advantage they not gonna stand a chance against Deso night/morning crew which would render FR’s night crew less useful in this match up, giving GH more of an advantage with their huge prime time presence, since Deso’s prime time presence is quite average. If Deso wasn’t the 3rd opponent and FR still has that NA guild I would say FR would win against GH because that night presence was a real match turner, but unfortunately for them Deso is in the match up too.[/quote]

Sigmar.2185:

Bronze League
Whiteside Ridge (3 points); Arborstone (5 points); Vabbi (1 point)
Blacktide (1 point); Ring of Fire (3 points); Dzagonur (5 points)
Ruins of Surmia (3 points); Fissure of Woe (1 point); Drakkar Lake (5 points)

As for Bronze I think you got it spot on, exactly what I would predict^^.