Estimating Pop Using Kill/Death Stats

Estimating Pop Using Kill/Death Stats

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Posted by: Michelangelo.1742

Michelangelo.1742

Alright so thanks to WvW Intel, we can see the kills and deaths of all the NA servers now (no idea what is going on with EU atm)! From this we can get a sort of rough idea as to what the current populations look like on all the servers and how accurate what ArenaNet is currently doing. I set it up into 6 different population brackets: Full, Very High, High, Medium, Low and Very Low. I separated them into equal intervals based on the biggest number out of all the servers (whether kills or deaths) and laid it out on a table. This does not reflect the population of servers that in general are avoiding fights due to a strong rival or not coming out due to a bad matchup, but it still displays how their system is not working very well. Compare what their population states in-game (the 5th column on the right) and the colour relating to their KD indicated pop and see for yourself!

I made this at 8:00 AM EST on Oct. 12, I also added an “Anet version” with just Full, Very High, High, and Medium.

Attachments:

WvW Revenge Catch-up Mechanic & Contingent 1U1D!
Tidal Legion [TL] – Sea of Sorrows

(edited by Michelangelo.1742)

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Posted by: Chaba.5410

Chaba.5410

I don’t get it. I expected to see some sort of formula applied that shows how you are correlating K/D to estimated population. These charts don’t make sense in how you did the ranking.

Chaba Tangnu
Founding member of [NERF] Fort Engineer and driver for [TLC] The Legion of Charrs
RIP [SIC] Strident Iconoclast

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Posted by: Swamurabi.7890

Swamurabi.7890

Would it be possible to organize the data to correspond with the timezone coverage found at http://coveragewars2.com/timezone/

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Posted by: Swamurabi.7890

Swamurabi.7890

I don’t get it. I expected to see some sort of formula applied that shows how you are correlating K/D to estimated population. These charts don’t make sense in how you did the ranking.

It also doesn’t take into consideration the general playstyle of the server, be it map blob, turtle, havoc, fights with and without open field siege. Also there’s nothing to show the relative difference in populations at any time.

It was interesting to see that there are more kills and deaths in T2 then in T1.

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Posted by: PariahX.6970

PariahX.6970

It was interesting to see that there are more kills and deaths in T2 then in T1.

Shows a big difference in play style for sure. T1 is all about the PPT where map blobs avoid fights just to back cap.

~Xylla~ [oG] on Ehmry Bay [PiXi]
Xyleia Luxuria / Sweet Little Agony / Morning Glory Wine / Precious Illusionz /
Near Fanstastica /Ocean at the End / Blue Eyed Hexe / Andro Queen / Indie Cindee . . .

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Posted by: morrolan.9608

morrolan.9608

Shows how low ET is, far lower than even the next lowest server.

Jade Quarry [SoX]
Miranda Zero – Ele / Twitch Zero – Mes / Chargrin Soulboom – Engi
Aliera Zero – Guardian / Reaver Zero – Necro

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Posted by: Synosius.9876

Synosius.9876

http://gw2.brutebyte.com/world/all
another stat site I have been studying, particularly the worlds section where its giving a count of active wvw guilds. I thought to calculate how full a server is by number of guilds.

neither method will be exact ofc but it can give rough estimate of population size

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Posted by: dragon.8071

dragon.8071

These stats only useful if it drills down to more detailed levels. i.e. Platinum Generals death 100, kills 3… etc. etc.

Zerg Doors [ZD]

“Recent Graduate of Maguuma University with a degree in Forums Politics”

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Posted by: Fuzzion.2504

Fuzzion.2504

Very interesting chart. Would be nice if you could have an end of the week update and plot a trend chart to see changes.

Fuzzionx [SF]
Guest member of [LOVE]
JQ official Prime Minister

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Posted by: Stonewall.6037

Stonewall.6037

Strange:

T1 kills: 15130+9274+10440 = 34844

T1 deaths: 10235+13931+11830 = 35996

T2 kills: 15567+16105+12769 = 44441

T2 deaths: 18088+13285+14668 = 46041

Excess deaths are nonplayer character killed and falling deaths??

So Long, and Thanks For the Loot Bags.

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Posted by: Synosius.9876

Synosius.9876

killed by npc’s or siege perhaps

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Posted by: Virtute.8251

Virtute.8251

We have an ongoing thread, chat with API dev, and end-user debug of the K/D values.

TL;DR is that the K and D aggregate totals don’t match the K and D per map totals.

https://i.imgur.com/VZewphe.png

This error accumulates over time, and we don’t know which set of K/D is the least inaccurate.

A separate issue is a ~4-hour-interval spike in the K/D data reports, which can possibly be blamed on server compute time scheduling (resource queuing).

Attachments:

Legendary PvF Keep Lord Anvu Pansu Senpai
RvR isn’t “endgame”, it’s the only game. Cu in CU.

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Posted by: yanoch.7051

yanoch.7051

This is interesting.

Heiann – NSP

(edited by yanoch.7051)

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Posted by: Michelangelo.1742

Michelangelo.1742

I just did the simplest way possible, I’m not some sort of stats genius so don’t put your expectations too high lol. Of course it’s imperfect but looking at the current WvW rankings and their WvW activity levels, it’s somewhat on the money. There’s no question some worlds are in weird spots (Sanctum of Rall for example), but Kills/Deaths stats leave out so much other information that the devs have access to and we don’t I am not surprised.

@Virtute I read your thread on gw2wvw and it does look like that there is something wrong, particularly with T1 data. Wouldn’t T2 data for Kills and Death be far too high then? It seems the Kills for BG and Deaths for JQ should be more in line with YB, making T2’s numbers much higher compared to the other worlds.

WvW Revenge Catch-up Mechanic & Contingent 1U1D!
Tidal Legion [TL] – Sea of Sorrows

(edited by Michelangelo.1742)

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Posted by: Sirbeaumerdier.3740

Sirbeaumerdier.3740

There’s no question some worlds are in weird spots (Sanctum of Rall for example)

And it yield us weird match-ups too…

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Posted by: insanemaniac.2456

insanemaniac.2456

i got 1 thing from this:

loooooooooool jq gittin farmed

JQ: Rikkity
head here to discuss wvw without fear of infractions

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Posted by: Wryscher.1432

Wryscher.1432

i got 1 thing from this:

loooooooooool jq gittin farmed

Bravo this took much longer then I expected.

[Sane]-Order of the Insane Disorder
Melanessa-Necromancer Cymaniel-Scrapper
Minikata-Guardian Shadyne-Elementalist -FA-

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Posted by: Michelangelo.1742

Michelangelo.1742

i got 1 thing from this:

loooooooooool jq gittin farmed

Check out the links Virtute provided, it seems that JQ and BG data is exaggerated (I don’t understand that stuff but I am sure a lot of peeps do). Until the dev working on this can fix it, I think we should uphold our opinions of worlds getting farmed (eventhough it is fun to say though :P)

WvW Revenge Catch-up Mechanic & Contingent 1U1D!
Tidal Legion [TL] – Sea of Sorrows

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Posted by: styx.7294

styx.7294

Wow, a stark counting of how small the smallest servers are.

1200 deaths to 18000.

WXP was such an awful idea as is increasing loot per kill. You really get punished for being in a low tier (as if being punished for being in WvW wasn’t bad enough).

Gate of Madness