Guild Wars 2

I want to know if there are any tools or spreadsheets one can use to predict future matchups based on supposed outcomes of those matchups. Particularly I’m looking at Dragonbrand’s possibility to get T2 Gold in the next league vs getting T2 silver.

Look up the matchup wishlist here on the forums and see Snowreap’s probability numbers for the upcoming matchups (usually posted on Thursday, so some variation happens).

There is no way to mathematically predict what will happen regarding DB going to Gold League or staying in Silver.

The general consensus is that it’s 75% in DB’s control if they go or not. If they get their full population out and press hard during SEA (they’ll have a challenge on their hands if it’s SoS and Maguuma; a little bit easier if it’s SoS and FA); there will be little to stop them from securing a place in Gold.

Tomorrow’s reset will determine it all as well. With SBI and SoR dropping, the #7 server only has one more week to collect the easy PPT from both servers. Whoever drops down to face them (if SoR or SBI do not drop down out of T3) will have to PPT hard to get back up, but should be good to move up the proceeding week.

So the main factors are:
1. Does Dragonbrand move up this week?
2. Does Dragonbrand play hard if they do?
3. Does Dragonbrand move up the week after this one?

The only factor out of DB’s control is that the current Tier 2 servers like their matchup and GvG variety. Any combination of servers will focus DB very hard at first to determine if they are going to fairweather it and purposefully tank down. If DB keeps coming back and fights hard, they’ll probably let up a little; DB will gain points and will probably be a lock for Gold unless RNG rolls extremely low.

That’s some good info but I wonder if it’s possible to model it out farther. For each set of matchups run scenarios of how each server does to produce a next set of server ratings to feed into the probability for the following week.

It’s like saying Dragonbrand rolls Fort Aspenwood and Sea of Sorrows next week and gets horribly crushed… with the servers going FA@600k, SOS at 400k, and DB at 80k for final score. Feed those into how each server’s rating changes and it comes out with DB facing SBI and FA the next week in one model run.

There’s too much probability. I do think that if DB and FA switch places and that if SoR/SBI are still the opponents; that you will most likely be going to Silver barring a truly heroic effort by your server.

Having been where you are now (SoS at the start of the first season) I’m familiar with the discussions that are going on within your server. I think you should just give it your all and let things fall where they may. If you don’t do well, you will drift down; with your heads held high and a nod of respect for trying. If you do well and fight a good fight, you will end up in Gold simply because that’s where you rank.

I know of no case of a server throwing a matchup that did not reverberate into a long-term backlash that usually sees that server stripped of most of it’s WvW talent. Even the perception of reluctance (SBI and FA, didn’t have a say in dropping out of Gold but they were too happy not to go) can make WvW-minded people and guilds reconsider a move to your server.

SoR’s collapse is distorting the ratings of servers that fight it. The ratings won’t normalize until SoR finds a tier to settle in. In other words: too early to make such predictions.

SoR has lost enough points that this week’s T2 guest will have extreme difficulty getting juice from fruit that has been thoroughly squeezed. If DB stays there, they will gain very little this coming week and it will be statistically impossible for them to gain the following week; especially since that would see one or two of the more able T4 servers step into the fight.
The worst possible outcome would be for DB to stay in T3 this week, pop up next week the same time as IoJ and possibly BP enter the match in T3.

DB isn’t going to gold no matter what happens. Doesn’t matter who goes down and/or if they come up. FA SoS and Mag like their GvGs and fights too much to allow one of those three to possibly not be in gold. Enjoy your silver league karma and loot, DB.

Even if you make it to gold league it will be horrible for the 5-6 place servers. FA tanked just to get into silver league last time :P. Mag and SoS did not score above 150k during a week last season.

The lead-up to the season was worse than the season itself.

Maguuma and SoS are in a much better position to shape events than they were last season, and even FA is looking pretty good if their OCX/SEA will stop bailing on them and they can get some more.

If nothing else, we might get some 2v1 (2 T2 vs 1 T1) going to keep it interesting; along with the chance to play spoiler in a match with only one T2 server.
The potential for fun and hijinks is there.