Guild Wars 2

With the current Rng system matchups are getting stale and boring, with the previous system matchups were though exciting always blowouts and by the end of the week it was demoralizing. My suggestion is every 1 in every 3 weeks manually create the matches to what you think would be fun and interesting for everyone.

So here is my wishlist for servers to fight next week in a ranking of 5

1. Fort Aspenwood
2.Tarnished Coast
3. Stormbluff Isle
4. Maguuma
5. Yak’s Bend

Keep this reasonable as i’m sure Eredon Terrace could never fight Blackgate, and Anet lets not be over zealous and delete this thread aswell. Allow some freedom for a brother.

Two bad words in the topic title, “matchup” and “wishlist”. Don’t expect this to last very long.

So it just hit me, if I want a thread closed, I would just have to start posting about a matchup in that thread. >_>

Any of the T1 servers. Pls anet?

Seems like you’re already getting what you wanted. Those five servers are the ones you’ve fought most recently.

Ikaros.7812:

Two bad words in the topic title, “matchup” and “wishlist”. Don’t expect this to last very long.

Haha, WvW is about matchups, you can hardly ban that word, even if the fun of WvW is now badly reduced by forbidding to talk about specific matchups.
And probably wish list is something ANet likes in the title of a thread. It’s a clear indicator that they have to ignore it’s content.

My wishes for next week are:
Elona-Riverside-Kodash
Vizu-SFr-(Jade/Piken/Deso)

Ken, will you post your probabilities now in this thread?

1 thru 5 Ehmry Bay

Dayra.7405:

Ken, will you post your probabilities now in this thread?

I’ll post numbers somewhere here, but I’m not sure yet whether this exact thread will be the one. the OP may have had something different in mind for this thread so maybe starting a new one would be better.

-ken

Rooster created the previous one, so he probably won’t mind. I think he’s just tagging on a wish that RNG would fluctuate a bit higher when you have the same matchup go on for too long.

I would love for Eredon Terrace to fight Blackgate. I’d get so many gvgs. I’d want to see IoM (BG) gvg DI (former IoM on ET).

Seigfried.5938:

So it just hit me, if I want a thread closed, I would just have to start posting about a matchup in that thread. >_>

should we try? to the two condi mesmers in sosbl last night, you guys suck, I stomped both of you and then you come back /laugh emoting and I stomp you again, get /sit on

>.>

<.<

lol jk ok i made that up, i didn’t play wvw last night

On topic, i’d love to see the matchups at the very least change one server from the matchup each week, like a prereq kinda thing, at least keep the matches fresh and allow servers to pull upsets or stuff.

here are the estimated matchup probabilities for tomorrow. for those who haven’t seen these posts before (I used to post these in the matchups forum, before it went away), these numbers are based on estimated ratings based on current scores from the current matches. the probabilities are calculated by simulating a large number of random matchups (I typically use 100 million) and counting how often each outcome occurs (this is a statistical technique called “Monte Carlo” analysis).

the “na1” file contains numbers for NA servers and the “eu1” file contains numbers for EU servers. the “1” means that the probabilities shown are for getting 1 opponent (and since matches always have 3 servers that means that probabilities for each server always add up to 200%, because you always get 2 opponents). I can also calculate pairwise probabilities (the chances of getting a specific pair of opponents) and color-sensitive 3-way probabilities (the chances of getting a specific matchup with a specific color assignment) but I don’t usually post them because they are rarely useful.

some comments about this week’s numbers:

just like last week, BG JQ and SoR are mathematically guaranteed to play each other — SoR and TC are too far apart in rating for it to be possible for TC to play in tier 1, or SoR to play in tier 2 (or lower).

DB and BP are almost guaranteed to play each other, and there’s a better than 4 in 5 chance that EB will fill the third spot in their matchup.

in EU, Vabbi and WSR are guaranteed to play each other, with either Blacktide or FoW filling the third spot. Blacktide is about twice as likely as FoW.

-ken

At least there is a chance we can let SBI get face time with FA and TC for a week or so. Getting both SoS and Mags would be good for YB as that will give them time to come out and get some practice open-field fighting.

Yes, please facetime with FA and TC. Make it happen Anet.

If its the same matchup again I seriously doubt I’ll log in next week.

P.S. +1000 to OP’s idea of manual matchups 1 out of 3 weeks. I’ve been pushing for it permanently but Anet how about just 1 of 3 weeks for you to manually make the matchups. That’s a good compromise.

sorry for the delay. can’t believe I had to go to page 6 to find this thread.

here’s the numbers for NA, didn’t calculate EU since they’ve already started.

-ken

Woo hoo! TC!

Johje Holan.4607:

P.S. +1000 to OP’s idea of manual matchups 1 out of 3 weeks. I’ve been pushing for it permanently but Anet how about just 1 of 3 weeks for you to manually make the matchups. That’s a good compromise.

If I would have to make that manually I would take a dice. I think they did it manually for the league, and that wasn’t really better than the random roll.

I want: Elona – Kodash – Vizu

PS: Ken, 35h left till EU-match restart, here it is back to page 1.

here are the estimated probabilities for tomorrow’s matchups.

-ken

edit: EU attachment fixed, not sure what went wrong there

Thanks, but the EU file looks empty.

Hmm, actually a 10% chance of facing DB, would be interesting.

P.S. Manually making the matchups would take about 10 min. No problem.

EU file fixed now, thanks for letting me know.

-ken

my top five matchups
1. Baruch Bay and Riverside (I just want the old crew back together)
2. Gandara and Far Shiverpeaks
3. Gandara and Baruch Bay
4. Gandara and Vizunah Square
5. Gandara and Gunnars Hold

Thanks.

Hm, how do I get to a match probability? By multiplying the Negation?
So if I want the probability of Elona – Kodash – Vizu
It’s not SFR and (multiplied by) not Riverside and not …
If I do that I reach 21% for Elona – Kodash – Vizu
sounds reasonable. Or did I made a mistake?

I don’t think you can calculate it accurately using the numbers I posted. the problem is, the individual probabilities aren’t independent. so you can’t simply multiply the probabilities of x and y together to get the probability of x AND y.

but I can do another simulation run to produce pairwise probabilities instead, which will tell you the likelihood of getting any particular pair of opponents. I usually don’t post the pairwise probabilities because most people are less interested in them, but I don’t have a problem doing it if there’s a specific reason.

likewise, I can also calculate color-sensitive probabilities (pairwise probabilities but also showing the likelihood of getting a particular color combination), but I don’t usually post them because they are usually less useful.

anyway, here are the pairwise estimated probabilities.

-ken

Thanks Ken! I actually like those better.

Beyond the obvious best chance matchup for SBI of Mag – Yaks, our next best chance is TC – FA. And its pretty close, only 35 vs. 31.

yes, for some servers (especially in NA) the pair-wise numbers aren’t too bad, but in many cases the number of distinct possibilities is so high that the numbers get hard to read.

for example, if you look up the numbers for AR or GoM (or Gunnar’s Hold in EU) you will see many possibilities, all with fairly low probabilities. for servers like that the single-opponent probabilities are more useful because it’s easier to see in one glance which servers you’re more likely to face.

this problem used to be a lot worse. the original matchup randomization system had a lot more randomness, which dramatically increased the number of possible outcomes. I’ve attached a file of pairwise probabilities from last June for comparison. at that time, there was so much randomness that these files were not especially useful.

nowadays, with the randomization very much reduced, it probably makes sense to start including these numbers again.

-ken

For next week Anet, bring SoR down to t2 and give a t2 server a shot at t1. Also bring YB down to t4 and give DB a shot at t3. We need more variation then current as bubbles may form where one server may not be specifically stronger then someone they are ranked above.

we need a “bronze” league championship. Now that FC is top of ‘bronze’ and DH is trending to take that spot this week, FC and DH need to fight it out since it’s been several weeks. But we need NSP or another competitive server in the match for it to be worthwhile.

can we CD get to fight FC or DH pls….. ?

sorry, late again. NA numbers only since EU matches have already started.

-ken

How much more rating do we have to lose to escape the hell that is T1?

Vespirisa.1497:

How much more rating do we have to lose to escape the hell that is T1?

Tends to only happen when entire servers blow up and lose everyone (see: HoD, SBI, old SoS). Since you guys just got RISE back (tho in low numbers), I don’t see you guys falling apart completely. You’d have to either lose a lot more guilds, or not play at all.

Vespirisa.1497:

How much more rating do we have to lose to escape the hell that is T1?

You’re still far closer in rating to BG than you are to TC. So, yeah..
Get comfy

Vespirisa.1497:

How much more rating do we have to lose to escape the hell that is T1?

You can compute that easily with the infos on https://leaderboards.guildwars2.com/de/na/wvw:

Your and TC’s Deviation is 152.
So you call roll down by (152*0.45 +10)= 78.4 and TC can roll up the same amount.
So 156.8 is the largest gap the rolls can bridge.

If you and TC will perform over the whole match like you did now during the start the and the rating prediction on http://mos.millenium.org/na/matchups becomes true. You can roll out next friday. The currently predicted rating diff is 137.5 so your chance is 1/4 (you roll negative and TC rolls positive) * (1 – 137.5/156.8) = 3%
If you drop more or TC climbs more, chances increase.

But does WvW matter after Thuesday? Who will still play WvW with EotM released? We will get balanced manageble 3h PvP-matches to play there.

It’s hard to predict who will play more EotM in the future and who will stay in WvW. As this will be likely different on each server, WvW-ranking will be changing over the next weeks rather dramatically I would expect.

I would enjoy facing Gandara, Far Shiverpeaks or Aurora Glade in the near future. There are a few guilds on each of these servers I would like to fight open field to test their mettle as well as a few willing candidates for possible GvGs.

Hmm, I would like to fight tier 2 in general.

here are the estimated probabilities for the next matchup. the “na1” and “eu1” files contain the probabilities of getting any particular server as one of your opponents. the “na2” and “eu2” files contain probabilities of getting particular pairs of opponents.

-ken

That 1% chance. FINALLY. May RNGesus be with us and not TC

Don’t worry, a few more weeks of tanking like this and you’ll be good.

here are the estimated probabilities for tomorrow’s matchups. as before, the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.

-ken

Up to 15% SoR, You can do it! XD

only 15%… tank harder SoR. TC needs face time with your bros up there and we need to catch up post-season.

Anet for this next week lest sswap TC and SoR both t2 and t1 matchups are getting redicilously stale lets add some excitement again. I know you have the power to influence it so LETS DO IT!

Bump for first page. EU reset soon.

Relevant discussion: I cant believe we rolled the 1% chance of DB/YB last week. BP come back you’re much more fun!

I still did not got my favoured

Elona-Kodash-Riverside

I want since 2 month

Now the chance are worser than ever, only 0.054848%

But it can still happen!!!!

PRAISE RNGesus.

here are the estimated probabilities for tomorrow’s matchups. as before, the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.

-ken

Thanks.

BP and YB lets do thissss.

To the top of the page for you post!

I had to go many pages back to find this thread and I kinda rofl’d at the “tank harder” SoR comments. The only other server tanking harder is Ebay.