Guild Wars 2

No Kaineng plz…

Andrew Clear.1750:

I believe kittens will be the same this week. FA will need to get to 1800 points to get that random.

Probably.

CD-HoD-GoM

#15char

The match I wanted doesnt even look like it exists this week :-/

GOM-CD-BP

Of the matchups that are actually probable I would like one of the GOM-NSP matches with HOD or CD.

Chaba.5410:

Snowreap, please consider adding the predicted ratings used in your analysis. I’m kind of wondering what “reasonably close” means and how much of a difference is needed to throw the numbers significantly off.

I’ve included predicted ratings in my most recent post, and I also went back and added them to previous posts going back to May 28, so that you can see how week-to-week rating changes cause the probabilities to shift.

it’s important to keep in mind that the most important thing affecting the probabilities is the relative difference in ratings — the size of the gap between your rating and the ratings of the servers around you is more important than the exact number.

-ken

Northern Shiverpeaks VS Far Shiverpeaks

Back to real world:

old GoM-HoD-NSP

I hope GoM rolls high so they can increase their rating and face other servers. I’d like to face them someday.

IoJ-(Insert a random server here)-GoM

I want to hear stories of Omega Tombstones over the dead bodies of ASH.

Jeknar.6184:

IoJ-(Insert a random server here)-GoM

I want to hear stories of Omega Tombstones over the dead bodies of ASH.

We all would, but the gap is still too large for a reasonable percentage to draw GoM

Based on current ratings GoM is essentially guaranteed to be in a T5 matchup next week. (~5% chance T6, 0% chance T4). In a T5 matchup they are guaranteed to face one weaker and one stronger server. The weaker server has about a 78% chance of being NSP, 10% chance DR, 7% chance SF, and 5% chance DH. The stronger server has about a 71% chance of being BP, 12% chance CD, 9% chance HoD, and 8% chance IoJ.

EDIT: I got my numbers by running 100 simulated matchups using the RNG in Excel, with the help of an auto-sorting macro. I just realized that Snowreap has been posting probabilities (see previous page of thread) that appear to have been actually calculated – these numbers will be more accurate that mine.

So we have 8% chance of seeing the tears of GoM? Oh lady luck, help us on this one…

Snowreap’s numbers (previous page) indicate 6.5% chance of IoJ for GoM. That will be more accurate than my value as it appears to be a calculated value, my values are estimates from running 100 simulated matchups.

I do it the same way, using simulated random matchups (also called Monte Carlo analysis, or the Monte Carlo Method), except that I run 100,000,000 (100 million) matchups for each file. doing that many trials takes 4-5 minutes on my laptop, using a program written in C#.

-ken

here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.

the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.

also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.

-ken

Thanks Snowreap, much appreciated.

Jeknar.6184:

No Kaineng plz…

This!

Oh looky, ET have still, even if small, a chance for SF and SoR or even FC and SoR.
Edit: which they are, sadly, higher than a chance for the epic bro trio, SF/FC/ET.

2% and 4% chance of the T2 and T3 NA matches we ended up with. Jaw dropped.

Mag is being punished… lol

T7/T8 matches were even more unlikely than the T2/T3 matches. 1.7% and 1.3% lol. Required SoR, EB, and Kain to all roll higher than FC. The other tiers had their expected matches.

My wishlist would be TC/SoS/FA. Tired of Tier 1 super blobs…mostly tired of JQ, that realm can suck my you know what.

Maybe if Mag ppts hard enough they will end up in T1.

I don’t think TC being in T2 will make for a balanced matchup though.

funny how you want to matchup with Yaks when they usually are able to field about half as much as those other servers and like 1/3 of what Zerguma does…………

Eleminate you too.5390:

funny how you want to matchup with Yaks when they usually are able to field about half as much as those other servers and like 1/3 of what Zerguma does…………

Have a look at when that was posted – 6 months ago. Things have changed alot since then, but that’s when yb did have the numbers to compete with the other servers on that list

Would be interested in one of these 2 matchups this week:

HOD-GOM-BP or IOJ-GOM-BP Would also be interested in a rematch with DR with a new 3rd server.

Without running any simulations I can tell you that HoD/GoM/BP and IoJ/GoM/BP are impossible. Any matchup with both GoM and BP will almost certainly have a lower-ranked server as the third server. If you’d like to face HoD or IoJ that will be in a T4 matchup and the third server would be SBI/YB/CD. (probably not more than 15% chance total of a T4 matchup)

As for a matchup with DR, that would be a T5 matchup that will almost certainly still include BP. If not BP, then would most likely be GoM/DR/NSP, but I think the chance of that matchup will be in the ~5% range, with all other T5 possibilities excluding BP being even less likely. (The most likely T5 matchups by far will be GoM/BP/DR and GoM/BP/NSP – each of these should account for about 45% of all T5 matchups.)

Note: These are crude estimates based on probablility calculations, not simulated matchups.

Baron Oakley.1539:

Without running any simulations I can tell you that HoD/GoM/BP and IoJ/GoM/BP are impossible. Any matchup with both GoM and BP will almost certainly have a lower-ranked server as the third server. If you’d like to face HoD or IoJ that will be in a T4 matchup and the third server would be SBI/YB/CD. (probably not more than 15% chance total of a T4 matchup)

As for a matchup with DR, that would be a T5 matchup that will almost certainly still include BP. If not BP, then would most likely be GoM/DR/NSP, but I think the chance of that matchup will be in the ~5% range, with all other T5 possibilities excluding BP being even less likely. (The most likely T5 matchups by far will be GoM/BP/DR and GoM/BP/NSP – each of these should account for about 45% of all T5 matchups.)

Note: These are crude estimates based on probablility calculations, not simulated matchups.

Yep, another reason the matchup system is terrible.

Arcadio.6875:

Maybe if Mag ppts hard enough they will end up in T1.

I don’t think TC being in T2 will make for a balanced matchup though.

mag is per definiton a t2 server. there is only 1 reason that mag will ppt and that is to not leave t2. mag doesn’t want to go up and they don’t want to go down. mag has always been a server run by gvg guilds and it still is.

if there is no chance they’ll leave t2, they’ll literally just go into EBG, cap SM and stay there for fights all day. even if it’s the last dot on the map they own. they don’t give a kitten.

that is also why all other real gvg guilds go to na t2

Baron Oakley.1539:

Without running any simulations I can tell you that HoD/GoM/BP and IoJ/GoM/BP are impossible. Any matchup with both GoM and BP will almost certainly have a lower-ranked server as the third server. If you’d like to face HoD or IoJ that will be in a T4 matchup and the third server would be SBI/YB/CD. (probably not more than 15% chance total of a T4 matchup)

As for a matchup with DR, that would be a T5 matchup that will almost certainly still include BP. If not BP, then would most likely be GoM/DR/NSP, but I think the chance of that matchup will be in the ~5% range, with all other T5 possibilities excluding BP being even less likely. (The most likely T5 matchups by far will be GoM/BP/DR and GoM/BP/NSP – each of these should account for about 45% of all T5 matchups.)

Note: These are crude estimates based on probablility calculations, not simulated matchups.

So we either are going for painful or boring?

I would like Painful or DR/BP. DR is obviously stronger than the last time we saw them. Anything but a 4th match of bp/nsp. I dont think any of the 3 servers involved are interested in that heh.

No Snowreap post yet?

I ran 500 matchup simulations using my Excel file – will post analysis of results for specific servers on request.

Since I know Mummies is interested, GoM has 5% chance of T4 matchup, 94% T5, and 1% T6. (There were 26 T4 matchups, 470 T5, and 4 T6)

In a T4 matchup the other servers will be 2 out of CD, HoD, IoJ, SBI, and YB. CD and IoJ will be most likely.

Out of the 470 T5 matchups, BP was in 449 of them, DR in 243, NSP in 214, DH in 18, HoD in 9, and IoJ in 4.

Most probable T5 matchups by far are GoM/BP/DR and GoM/BP/NSP. Haven’t got an exact count yet but you get the idea from the above numbers.

I don’t have a program to analyze the results so I have to do it manually.

EDIT: If Snowreap doesn’t post and a lot of people request server-specific numbers I may just post my raw data instead.

TY Baron that was much appreciated

Hey WvWers Happy Friday!

Don’t forget to sup up!

Yours,
-Forever Dolyaks

Gimme dat 5% chance for GoM. Idc who the rest of the servers are.

Arcadio.6875:

Maybe if Mag ppts hard enough they will end up in T1.

I don’t think TC being in T2 will make for a balanced matchup though.

It might be an uphill climb for the other two servers, but it would provide something Tier 2 has been lacking, a challenge. I’m not suggesting TC stay in Tier 2, but going there for a week before returning to tier 1 would provide much needed break from the mindless skilless blobs that is JQ. That server just needs to be moved to the china servers, it has no business being with all our other servers.

Twinbros.5372:

it would provide something Tier 2 has been lacking, a challenge.

Last week’s T2 finished with all 3 servers within 16k points of each other. TC coming down would ruin the perfect storm T2 has become.

You want to beat up T2 because JQ is beating you up (and really not that badly either.)

sorry, forgot. too late for EU but here are the NA probabilities.

-ken

Twinbros.5372:

Arcadio.6875:

Maybe if Mag ppts hard enough they will end up in T1.

I don’t think TC being in T2 will make for a balanced matchup though.

It might be an uphill climb for the other two servers, but it would provide something Tier 2 has been lacking, a challenge. I’m not suggesting TC stay in Tier 2, but going there for a week before returning to tier 1 would provide much needed break from the mindless skilless blobs that is JQ. That server just needs to be moved to the china servers, it has no business being with all our other servers.

I’m pretty sure T2 is not interested in having TC there……

0.26 chance of SoS/SBI/YB. That would be so awesome.

1.029143 Ferguson’s Crossing/Sorrow’s Furnace
Woot! ET is rocking! 2 matches in a row which had 1% of chance to happen.

And my wish came true! Now I just wish I can win the lotto or perhaps wish for NSP and DH for the next match.

WoW… The bro trio is reunited with the 1% probability matchup…

sor jq bg GOGOGOGO!

here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.

the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.

also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.

-ken

Surely not SF… I’m even taking Kaineng this time.

here are the estimated probabilities for the new matchups, assuming that predicted ratings are reasonably close to what we will see at the end of the current matches. as always, if predicted ratings turn out to be different from the actual end-of-match ratings, that will throw the numbers off.

the “na1” and “eu1” files have probabilities of getting a particular server as an opponent, while the “na2” and “eu2” files have probabilities of getting specific pairs of servers as opponents.

also, I’ve included the predicted ratings that I use for these calculations. these are the “na” and “eu” files. these values should fairly closely match predicted ratings from other sites at the time I post them.

-ken

0,3% of NSP/DH/ET?

This is the thing that kitten me, servers are sorted by rank.
See the difference between probability for BB to fight Arborstone (-1 rank )and Jade Sea (+6 rank)
13.380310 Jade Sea [FR]
26.390955 Far Shiverpeaks
26.974324 Aurora Glade
32.313529 Piken Square
36.502351 Gunnar’s Hold
37.242081 Vizunah Square [FR]
here is Baruch Bay
1.756540 Arborstone [FR]

Hule.8794:

This is the thing that kitten me, servers are sorted by rank.
See the difference between probability for BB to fight Arborstone (-1 rank )and Jade Sea (+6 rank)
13.380310 Jade Sea [FR]
26.390955 Far Shiverpeaks
26.974324 Aurora Glade
32.313529 Piken Square
36.502351 Gunnar’s Hold
37.242081 Vizunah Square [FR]
here is Baruch Bay
1.756540 Arborstone [FR]

Its because the gap of rating between you and Arborstone is 110 rating, and Between you and Jade Sea is 78. The highest chances go for the servers with the closest ratings and Arborstone isn’t close to you, even if their ranking is.

That is because of gap in rating between BB and Arborstone, it requires high random roll for them to swap, which is less probable.

I know that Anya, but the gap is there for like 5 weeks. And it will take like 8 more weeks for AS to cross that gap.
You know how RoF was with our luck for matchups.

While manually matching them with Vizu and Gunnars and BB with us and DL will destroy the gap in one week.
Yeah well there is solution but instead we need to tank every week to let AS as many points they can have.
Thing is AS got a lot of reinforcements and thanks to this they have blobs 24/7. We played against AG and FSP.
We beat FSP 1 week before we were matched against AS. And AS will go high silver or low gold, if they will get lucky draw or Anet will manually adjust 2 matchups.

Just switch 2 servers that are on rank 15 and 16 for a long time now.
edit: if I remember, Anet changed random rolls so maximum is 100?

I wouldn’t mind seeing SFR pitted against the best of NA and China.