here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
They need to increase the matchup variance quickly. YB isn’t even pushing that hard, have several main commanders on break like DK and Dods, and are destroying two servers. Yet the rate at which YBs chance to roll tier 1 is low, and it will be increasingly hard to make further progress the weaker in glicko SOS and FA are. It will be increasingly harmful to the other two T2 servers the longer this process draws out. This is a glaring example of the problem of the matchup system.
As we studied the numbers last night YB actually loses glicko if we drop below 350ppt. We pushed as high as 630 Sunday and 560 yesterday. Our goal is a healthy system where servers can rotate like EU, and it is sad that what we are seeing is the only way to get there. If the chance to roll a different tier was higher the talent of servers would naturally spread out as people sought more fights with others equal to their skill level instead of all of it being concentrated in one area.
Tarnished Coast
[OnS] Medaria Minnick – Reaper
The Mad Priest
Your rotation is meaningless even if you succeed. Look at what happened when DB broke the wall to T2. All that happened is the rotation of incredibly bad matchups for the server that rolled low and the true T3 servers.
What made you think it would be different this time? I fail to see how anyone with a credible amount of competence could not done the math and not predict the effects.
Sorry, SOS and FA were in the position of considering a push to T1. The calculations were done before. The math was always out there. The consequences are obvious if any critical thinking was done at all.
Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.
Your rotation is meaningless even if you succeed. Look at what happened when DB broke the wall to T2. All that happened is the rotation of incredibly bad matchups for the server that rolled low and the true T3 servers.
What made you think it would be different this time? I fail to see how anyone with a credible amount of competence could not done the math and not predict the effects.
Sorry, SOS and FA were in the position of considering a push to T1. The calculations were done before. The math was always out there. The consequences are obvious if any critical thinking was done at all.
Factored into the equation was the goal to make it glaringly obvious that change was needed in WvW and a big shakeup is a way to do that. Anet has responded positively to this as evidenced by recent action and statements that have occurred near to the time of the events on YB. I just hope there will continue to be quick action to build healthier match systems.
Tarnished Coast
[OnS] Medaria Minnick – Reaper
The Mad Priest
We will see. It will require significant intervention by ANET at this point. I have seen only two things myself. The lockdown of full servers coupled with the population calculation change and the statement that wvw is very important to ANET and they will look at it after HoT, really.
Well, assuming priorities don’t change between now and then.
I personally believe that the T2 situation will be resolved one way or another before ANET acts. It will not be to a lot of people’s satisfaction.
Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.
You guys made T1 what it is today, now it seems like they’re still using your lessons and making sure you don’t get in reach of them for as long as possible.
You’ve come to T2 and finished it off, T2 was already in a state of slow destruction, but you’ve put in the final nail, all the gvg guilds moved to T3 a week after you transferred. I still find it funny that DK has been on vacation all this time, the time you need him the most for a heavy ppt push and he’s not around.
Thankfully anet put in the population changes, and in the process immobilized your main accounts to T2. Enjoy your next 3 months of 350+ PPT.
Another derailing post. ^^ North Keep: One of the village residents will now flee if their home is destroyed.
“Game over man, Game Over!” – RIP Bill
You guys made T1 what it is today, now it seems like they’re still using your lessons and making sure you don’t get in reach of them for as long as possible.
You’ve come to T2 and finished it off, T2 was already in a state of slow destruction, but you’ve put in the final nail, all the gvg guilds moved to T3 a week after you transferred. I still find it funny that DK has been on vacation all this time, the time you need him the most for a heavy ppt push and he’s not around.
Thankfully anet put in the population changes, and in the process immobilized your main accounts to T2. Enjoy your next 3 months of 350+ PPT.
We will continue to enjoy our Mad Court and growing together as we settle in for the long haul. Either way we are enjoying ourselves immensely as FA can still put together one hell of a blob with [VP] and provide insane keep defenses that take hours to break. We have also had lots of great fights this week.
I agree that the population changes can be helpful but they are just a bandaid to cover existing wounds.
I’m also not sure that the concentration of guilds and the makeup of T1 was our doing. Basically, the T1 servers were always competing with one another for coverage and an advantage by recruiting guilds. This naturally concentrated like minded people to the top and created a very strong core of 3’servers that were beyond the lower tiers. Seems like another result of the matchmaking system to me.
Tarnished Coast
[OnS] Medaria Minnick – Reaper
The Mad Priest
Anyone with half a brain would have known this was gonna happen. YB won’t reach T1, and even if it was possible, what good people think would have come from that? Rotation just for the sake of rotation isn’t good per se. YB would be roflstomp in T1, the T1 server in T2 that week would roflstomp the T2 servers. Yeah, sounds awesome…
All they’ve achieved with this nonsense transfers was boring one sided matchups. And that was obvious from the beginning to anyone who gave it any thought at all.
Same people doing the same mistakes. Over and over again…
Anyone with half a brain would have known this was gonna happen. YB won’t reach T1, and even if it was possible, what good people think would have come from that? Rotation just for the sake of rotation isn’t good per se. YB would be roflstomp in T1, the T1 server in T2 that week would roflstomp the T2 servers. Yeah, sounds awesome…
All they’ve achieved with this nonsense transfers was boring one sided matchups. And that was obvious from the beginning to anyone who gave it any thought at all.
Same people doing the same mistakes. Over and over again…
This is a more short sighted view than what we had in making the decision. In the long term rotations are good because they spread out the talent. People naturally want good competition and so people will move to face better guilds and more skilled opponents as they improve. If rotations were more normalized it would be normal for talent to disperse rather than simply concentrate at the top. I will reiterate, this is a very long-term perspective and is not focused as you are on what is happening locally in T2 week to week.
We also suspected this could take a while (upwards of 3 months). We suspected we could get stuck in T2 (and we still don’t think this is at all the most likely scenario because we are gaining significant glicko and increases % chance to move this week as well. We are only in our third week. The longer it does draw out though the more damage is done to SOS and FA. This is what Anet should be striving to change (the breaking of servers from changing tiers or from having a server pushing to another tier). It would be healthy if it wasn’t so important what tier you were in.
We are not so concerned with the current matchup being uneven because the variance in fights will come when the rotation begins. and that will make this long process worth it in the end especially if Anet supports a system with more rotations with the changes they make (which their statements show they think is a problem).
Tarnished Coast
[OnS] Medaria Minnick – Reaper
The Mad Priest
I’m also not sure that the concentration of guilds and the makeup of T1 was our doing. Basically, the T1 servers were always competing with one another for coverage and an advantage by recruiting guilds. This naturally concentrated like minded people to the top and created a very strong core of 3’servers that were beyond the lower tiers. Seems like another result of the matchmaking system to me.
Sure, and there isn’t a thing called BG push weeks, or TW sending alt accounts to JQ to help prop it up, or OnsL sending alts to TC. Yeah it’s all the match making system with 3 equally strong servers.
PPT harder maybe Anet will notice how broken T2 is and do something at some point. I’m gonna get a good laugh if you guys finally make it into T1 right before the expansion hits, and they mix I mean mess things up with server/ratings shuffling right after.
Another derailing post. ^^ North Keep: One of the village residents will now flee if their home is destroyed.
“Game over man, Game Over!” – RIP Bill
You are still over 100 points away currently. Unless if you get a fantastic roll soon, as in the next couple of weeks, the amount of glicko needed increases.
As that happens, the frequency and quality of fights decrease dramatically. You will be eventually chasing around groups half or less your size that are backcaping you stuff. You will get to the point where you will get maybe one fight in a raid.
Can you keep your players interested then? Do you even have buy in from the true YB players?
Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.
You are still over 100 points away currently. Unless if you get a fantastic roll soon, as in the next couple of weeks, the amount of glicko needed increases.
As that happens, the frequency and quality of fights decrease dramatically. You will be eventually chasing around groups half or less your size that are backcaping you stuff. You will get to the point where you will get maybe one fight in a raid.
Can you keep your players interested then? Do you even have buy in from the true YB players?
Yes, it was YB guilds and players who helped to fund our move over. And yes, most of our players understand the length of the process
Tarnished Coast
[OnS] Medaria Minnick – Reaper
The Mad Priest
I’m also not sure that the concentration of guilds and the makeup of T1 was our doing. Basically, the T1 servers were always competing with one another for coverage and an advantage by recruiting guilds. This naturally concentrated like minded people to the top and created a very strong core of 3’servers that were beyond the lower tiers. Seems like another result of the matchmaking system to me.
Sure, and there isn’t a thing called BG push weeks, or TW sending alt accounts to JQ to help prop it up, or OnsL sending alts to TC. Yeah it’s all the match making system with 3 equally strong servers.
PPT harder maybe Anet will notice how broken T2 is and do something at some point. I’m gonna get a good laugh if you guys finally make it into T1 right before the expansion hits, and they mix I mean mess things up with server/ratings shuffling right after.
All of those things are a natural part of competition and protecting your share of the tier since falling out of tier can be so devastating. If falling out of tier didn’t mean certain death but tier rotation was normal you wouldn’t have had those problems. Also the moves of TW and OnS were more a result of the stale matchups caused by over stacked time zones and locked tiers; and locked tiers were cause by stacking your server for fear of falling out of tier. See how it’s a circle of factors that contributed to each other and spiraled out of control to produce what you see?
If Anet acts just as we accomplish our goal we would be happy because our main goal has always been to see rotations and rally awareness about the broken system.
Tarnished Coast
[OnS] Medaria Minnick – Reaper
The Mad Priest
You are still over 100 points away currently. Unless if you get a fantastic roll soon, as in the next couple of weeks, the amount of glicko needed increases.
As that happens, the frequency and quality of fights decrease dramatically. You will be eventually chasing around groups half or less your size that are backcaping you stuff. You will get to the point where you will get maybe one fight in a raid.
Can you keep your players interested then? Do you even have buy in from the true YB players?
Yes, it was YB guilds and players who helped to fund our move over. And yes, most of our players understand the length of the process
Excellent. I can stop pulling my punches then. Simplifies things.
Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.
Been on Jade Quarry since before release. Not once did I care what servers or guilds we were paired with. A fight is a fight regardless of what server, guild, or red name tag paired up on the other side.
Kurthos “When Jade Quarry awakens, they will ask themselves, when were we ever asleep?”
Been on Jade Quarry since before release. Not once did I care what servers or guilds we were paired with. A fight is a fight regardless of what server, guild, or red name tag paired up on the other side.
And JQ has been at the top for nearly the entire length of game. Being at the top means the competition moves towards you and so you don’t have to care so much and being at the top tier in this game means stacking time zones for ppt coverage primarily. This is another issue Anet has said they want to address.
Tarnished Coast
[OnS] Medaria Minnick – Reaper
The Mad Priest
Been on Jade Quarry since before release. Not once did I care what servers or guilds we were paired with. A fight is a fight regardless of what server, guild, or red name tag paired up on the other side.
And JQ has been at the top for nearly the entire length of game. Being at the top means the competition moves towards you and so you don’t have to care so much and being at the top tier in this game means stacking time zones for ppt coverage primarily. This is another issue Anet has said they want to address.
Competition ? Every tier has competition. Trust me when I say, and I am not alone, that if JQ was at the bottom of the rankings I would still be there. Never felt the need to jump servers for WvW just to stroke some ego or flame some illiusion that winning in WvW actually means something.
Kurthos “When Jade Quarry awakens, they will ask themselves, when were we ever asleep?”
Is Cephas crazy? T1 guilds that came into T2 are why T2 is such a bore now. You abused the glicko system while in T1 and wonder why tiers got locked. Then you have the audacity to ruin a perfectly good tier in the name of server glory? I’m guessing you can find more frequent fight against players – not doors – in T8 right now. But nice work on “getting Anet to see the flaw in the system”. It’s unfortunate that flaw is certain guilds abusing it to get what THEY want out of it without considering the other guilds in the game.
Is Cephas crazy? T1 guilds that came into T2 are why T2 is such a bore now. You abused the glicko system while in T1 and wonder why tiers got locked. Then you have the audacity to ruin a perfectly good tier in the name of server glory? I’m guessing you can find more frequent fight against players – not doors – in T8 right now. But nice work on “getting Anet to see the flaw in the system”. It’s unfortunate that flaw is certain guilds abusing it to get what THEY want out of it without considering the other guilds in the game.
T2 was not a perfectly good tier…. Many were bored with a stale matchup of 2 servers. It was fa/YB and SOS in name only (because of full status). When the move was made to mix things up, who knew anet was going to change how status was calculated pushing YB to full and SOS to very high just 10 days into the change…. If all had a warning on that change who knows if the movement would had occurred at all…..
Is Cephas crazy? T1 guilds that came into T2 are why T2 is such a bore now. You abused the glicko system while in T1 and wonder why tiers got locked. Then you have the audacity to ruin a perfectly good tier in the name of server glory? I’m guessing you can find more frequent fight against players – not doors – in T8 right now. But nice work on “getting Anet to see the flaw in the system”. It’s unfortunate that flaw is certain guilds abusing it to get what THEY want out of it without considering the other guilds in the game.
T2 was not a perfectly good tier…. Many were bored with a stale matchup of 2 servers. It was fa/YB and SOS in name only (because of full status). When the move was made to mix things up, who knew anet was going to change how status was calculated pushing YB to full and SOS to very high just 10 days into the change…. If all had a warning on that change who knows if the movement would had occurred at all…..
Aside from SoS being locked prior to the change due to full status, it actually was fine. All the guilds that liked to fight knew what BL to hit up. If you wanted to PPT, you knew what BL to head to. There will always be some problems (people don’t like GvG, people complaining someone PPTs too much, etc) but generally the tier was fine. If you think it was boring, fine. You personally can go find a new server to play on but you can do that without ruining it for everyone else. The issue here is that a few guilds are deciding what is right for everyone when many don’t want what they want at all. They spent months match fixing YB and FA out of T1 only to complain their matches got stale? Glicko is not the best system by any means for WvW, but I find it hilarious that the guilds complaining about it being broken now are the ones who abused it in the first place and created the original “stale match” mess.
Here’s what will happen now if the lock is broken. A T1 guild drops into T2. That T1 guild fights a ton of doors, ticks 600+ for a week, goes back into T1. Meanwhile, the T2 guild that moves up gets stomped back down into T2. It’s like seasons only this time, there’s no end in sight for things to normalize again.
Is Cephas crazy? T1 guilds that came into T2 are why T2 is such a bore now. You abused the glicko system while in T1 and wonder why tiers got locked. Then you have the audacity to ruin a perfectly good tier in the name of server glory? I’m guessing you can find more frequent fight against players – not doors – in T8 right now. But nice work on “getting Anet to see the flaw in the system”. It’s unfortunate that flaw is certain guilds abusing it to get what THEY want out of it without considering the other guilds in the game.
T2 was not a perfectly good tier…. Many were bored with a stale matchup of 2 servers. It was fa/YB and SOS in name only (because of full status). When the move was made to mix things up, who knew anet was going to change how status was calculated pushing YB to full and SOS to very high just 10 days into the change…. If all had a warning on that change who knows if the movement would had occurred at all…..
Aside from SoS being locked prior to the change due to full status, it actually was fine. All the guilds that liked to fight knew what BL to hit up. If you wanted to PPT, you knew what BL to head to. There will always be some problems (people don’t like GvG, people complaining someone PPTs too much, etc) but generally the tier was fine. If you think it was boring, fine. You personally can go find a new server to play on but you can do that without ruining it for everyone else. The issue here is that a few guilds are deciding what is right for everyone when many don’t want what they want at all. They spent months match fixing YB and FA out of T1 only to complain their matches got stale? Glicko is not the best system by any means for WvW, but I find it hilarious that the guilds complaining about it being broken now are the ones who abused it in the first place and created the original “stale match” mess.
Here’s what will happen now if the lock is broken. A T1 guild drops into T2. That T1 guild fights a ton of doors, ticks 600+ for a week, goes back into T1. Meanwhile, the T2 guild that moves up gets stomped back down into T2. It’s like seasons only this time, there’s no end in sight for things to normalize again.
I would say that T2 before the move down of T1 guilds was, while not perfect and suffering from staleness of matchup, was certainly far and away much better than the way it is now.
The matchup will now be this way for a long time. If there is any change, there will be a T1 server in the matchup. From the SOS and FA perspective, it really isn’t any different. It is doubtful that any meaningful positive change will happen for T2.
The other thing to consider is that T2 was a destination tier was the opportunity to fight the GvG focused players, either in GvG or in WvW. They are no longer in T2. They are now in T3.
This process has removed an incentive for players to come to this tier. The “medicine” for the problem is worse than the problem and will not provide a solution.
Never attribute to malice what can be attributed to incompetence.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
Move of gvg to t3 only a matter of time even without the influx IMHO…. Full servers and/or queues…..
In your opinion only since it was a matter of time for HoT to come out and bring guild halls, negating most of the server transfers. YB had guilds like BOO and EP who were more than willing to wait in YB’s pre-OnS NA queues while FA had a few GvG guilds who did the same. Plus T2 had like THREE GvG guilds coming back to the game. They had just finished paying for their transfers and were pretty upset to have to transfer again. The top selling point that differentiated T2 from T1, the fights, has been destroyed. Good luck recruiting now.
Chaba Tangnu
Founding member of [NERF] Fort Engineer and driver for [TLC] The Legion of Charrs
RIP [SIC] Strident Iconoclast
sorry, was on vacation again last week and forgot to post numbers again.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
I knew that it was being worked on, but I didn’t know when it would be ‘opened up’ to the general public. If people prefer to use that web site I can stop posting the numbers in this thread, but right now I don’t know if people prefer this way or that way so I guess I’ll keep posting here for now.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
these will be the last matchups before Heart of Thorns is released, and will not count for rating/ranking purposes.
now that matchups are starting on Saturdays, I am switching to posting probability estimates on Fridays.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
note that the estimated rating outcomes are based on the ‘short’ matchups that started when Heart of Thorns was released (yesterday). since it’s common for it to take several days for scores to stabilize, the final ratings may differ by quite a lot from today’s estimates, which may throw off the probability estimates by a lot.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
here are the estimated matchup probababilities for the upcoming matchups. “na1” and “eu1” files show the probabilities of getting any single opponent, “na2” and “eu2” files show the probabilities of getting a particular pair of opponents. the last two files are the estimated rating outcomes for the current matchups, assuming that final scores don’t meaningfully differ from today’s scores.
Someone automatized your predictions into a cool new wvw-web-site http://coveragewars2.com/prediction/?world=2203