Predicting WvW Results

Predicting WvW Results

in WvW

Posted by: Xericor.9103

Xericor.9103

Howdy all, having recently returned to the game from a 6 month break I have had a lot to catch-up on. I was still following the game and my beloved server (Aurora Glade) during my absence, and one of the most intriguing changes for me was the match-up system.

Now I am back I decided to have a look at the change, and the results it has created.

My own personal view on the match-up system, that now pits server against server outside of their Tier ranking, is that it is crazy, but I wanted to know if it really made all that much of a difference to the game.

My findings are all based on the stats from mos.millenium site, for the last 12 weeks (108 match-ups), on the EU servers.

Results are as follows,

Percentage Chance to win the week if you start as Highest Ranking Server – 79% (85 of 108 matches were won by the highest ranking server)

Of those matchups that the Highest Ranking Server DID NOT win, the week was won by a Server +/- 2 Positions away from the Highest Ranker 82% of the time (19 of the 23 matches).

If your server begins the week more than two places away from the Highest Ranking Server, your chance of winning that week is 3.7% (only 4 of 108 matches)

In Summary
To me it seems that the change from the old system has simply made a 3-way fight into a two horse race. Either the Highest Ranking Server wins, or a server it would normally be in the same Tier with wins. If your server ranks more than two places away from the highest ranker in your matchup, its going to be a very harsh week for you indeed.

www.auroraglade.eu – Community Site for Aurora Glade!