Guild Wars 2

Well we are into the last day of the first 1 week matchup. My server Isle of Janthir has had a pretty tough time of it, but what can we expect for the upcoming week long matchup.

Currently the top 3 servers look to be fairly even. The only score I’ve seen so far from their matchup saw HoD on top with SBI slightly behind and JQ a bit further back. All were in the 230-280K range for their score.

In bracket 2 the score is very lopsided. ET currently has 460K vs. 85K (IoJ) vs. 70K (SoS).

I haven’t seen anything so far from bracket 3 which is Crystal Desert vs. Gates of Madness vs. Blackgate but going from the queue times I’d say CD is winning there.

So anyway after running them around in my head for a bit here are my prediction for the matchups for next week for the top 9 servers.

Bracket 1
- Henge of Denravi
- Stormbluff Isle
- Eredon Terrace

Bracket 2
- Jade Quarry
- Crystal Desert
- Blackgate

Bracket 3
- Isle of Janthir
- Sea of Sorrows
- Gates of Madness (or some lower ranked server that moves up).

What does everyone else think?

I think that many servers gave up after 2 or 3 days play and that will severely have an effect on match-ups this coming week.

With the exception of the Tier one group, I expect the matches will result in even more lop-sided results.

Fort Aspenwood
Dragonbrand
Maguuma maybe?
Im pretty sure those first two are set in stone though. Similar ranking, and we’re both winning.

^^ Dragonbrand is currently playing against Maguuma and Tarnished coast… Dragonbrand is wining by a huge margin. Fort Aspenwood was ranked lower than Mag and TC.

I guess will see who Dragonbrand is up against in a few hours. Should be interesting!

The fort aspenwood ranking is dumb.

Tarnished Coast 59045 Sorrow’s Furnace 68483 Fort Aspenwood 98750 9/3/2012
Dragonbrand 46972 Fort Aspenwood 45628 Crystal Desert 129683
Ehmry Bay 38490 Dragonbrand 44623 Fort Aspenwood 139998

We’ve fought maguuma at least once before. And we were winning when I went to bed, but my guildy said we lost. So i’ll take them as being higher as valid.

however, tarnished got creamed by us. And while we’re tied on wins with dragonbrand, our loss to them was crystal desert more than anything, as seen by our devastating victory the second time around.

The FA brackets have just been so sad. Right out the starting gate we fought JQ…
Then after our win we had to face crystal desert and bounced down again
After that win we had to face janthir… Then it decided we were still totally good enough to face sorrows… (Note how both janthir and sorrows are above crystal desert. So we lost to crystal, won 1 match and suddenly the brackets thought it was totally cool to back to back us against teams above the people who just got done creaming us)
Then it decides to send us against crystal desert AGAIN
At which point we finally get some matchups we can win (2 of them)
before it says “hey aspenwood, know who you havent fought in a while? CRYSTAL DEEEEESEEEERT”

Its like, every time we start to do good it just decides to lump us against CD and drop us down some more.

That is pretty much how this system is designed to work.

if they use their current ELO ratings. Match ups will be very skewed as HOD, SBI and didn’t score as many points as some of the other servers who dominated the other 2 servers they fought.

HOD may be “#1” but not from a points perspective after this weeks current scores.

The reason why is because we were fighting the best teams.
This wasn’t just a big massive zerg fest to win.
We had to play skillfully
As far as ET, BRING IT ON!!!!

They should probably stop looking at points and start matching servers up based on their WvW population. That makes more sense i think.

as for the tier one fight it will probably go like this…

SB cant beat Hod so they will attack ET
Hod needs to hit ET simply because ET is the real threat.

If the above happen I think it will look like Hod, Sb and ET.

IF SB doesn’t focuses on ET, ET will take second and depending on how night fighting goes maybe ET on top. More likely it will be Hod, ET and SB.

The reason HoD DIDNT score so many points is because they were against two servers that were also in the high tier. So the fighting was more… dare i say it.. balanced than say ET against it’s tier 2 server opponents.

It’s easy to get a huge score when you roflstomp the other two but there was no roflstomping this week against HoD, SBI & JQQ.

I’m in two minds, it would be nice to have a rest from HoD for a bit (fighting them is FUN yet exhausting) and have a SBI, JQQ &ET match but on the other hand HoD have been great fun to fight against.

Either way, Im In and looking forward to pulling the rug our from under ET hehe

Lasica.5068

I haven’t seen anything so far from bracket 3 which is Crystal Desert vs. Gates of Madness vs. Blackgate but going from the queue times I’d say CD is winning there.

You are correct.

Also, this is funny (to me). “From the queue times”. Ho ho ho.

Unfortunately for ET, this past week has been a real snoozer and it may take a day or two for them to get their A game going again. I’m part of ET, so I hope the week of R&R we just had is not a detrimental factor.

Regardless of the outcome, I’m looking forward to some epic battles this week.

Amen to that Estus, tired of mopping up bands of cappers and ready for some epic battles this weekend. Good luck to everyone involved.

My prediction is on Sept 25th StormHenge will lose focus and players due to the MoP expansion leaving the door open for ET’s easy win.

GW2 should release some panda armor skins and do a bunch of Jack Black voice overs. That would be funny as an April Fools joke.

I think that, depending on how they tally up points, there will be a major shift in brackets beyond what you expect. It depends on how reliable they consider their earlier data to be.

I’m in the 7th bracket, out of 8 total. My server (Ehmry Bay) is completely destroying our two opponents. The overall score was roughly 10 to 1 yesterday.

In the lower brackets, everyone who’s interested in WvW across three servers have transferred to one server. Our queue times are low partially because the maps are so lopsided – it is difficult to find a fight. There are few chances to gain karma or badges, because the other two sides aren’t participating.

This means that there’s a good chance we’ll be moved up multiple brackets, against opponents that we (probably) aren’t really prepared for with more consistent WvW presence. We certainly won’t end up in the top 3 brackets (unless the accounting is very skewed!), but I could see us jumping up to bracket 4 or 5 under some assumptions. If we jump by that much, there’s a good chance that people in the 4-5-6 bracket will be jumping up to 2-3 as well.

Similarly, if you are one of the servers that isn’t doing too well in the #2 bracket, I think it’s quite possible you’ll fall into the #4 or #5 bracket.

Glicko ratings just won’t work when our team is now a combination of the two teams we were playing against at the beginning of a week, as well as our original player group. If they weigh past information very heavily, then you may be right – but that won’t accurately reflect the changes that have happened in the last week very well.

I can assure you that if the brackets shuffle only slightly, the people who’ve been on the losing side of WvWvW won’t even show up to try to fight and we’ll get a lot of lopsided matches again.

They should scrap the Glicko ratings for now and pair us all up based on the population graphs. Wipe the Glicko score, start over when server transfers are somewhat constrained, and then try again.

*TC, Aspenwood, Sanctum of Rall.

*Maguuma, Darkhaven, Sorrow’s Furnace.

Those are the only two predicted match ups I have.

EDIT: I also predict, like most, that Henge of Denravi faced ET and smokes them like a gas station cigar.

My predictions on a couple of the next groups.

- Gates of Madness, Darkhaven, Isle of Janthir
- Tarnished Coast, Sanctum of Rall, Sorrow’s Furnace
- Crystal Desert, Henge Of Denravi, Stormbluff isle
- Yak’s Bend, Fort Aspenwood, Dragonbrand

It depends how much more you lose or gain based on 2nd or 3rd and by how many points you lose. The admin post makes it sound like losing by more points = more points lost in rankings, etc

I’d wager the top brackets to end of something like

HOD
ET
SBI

JQ
Crystal Desert
IoJ

Dragonbrand
SoS
Here’s the tough one. GoM and BG are only 10 points apart in standings with GoM ahead but BG came in second in this match not 3rd so it could go either way.

Mike Ferguson, are you seriously believing in this nonsense? Some servers have 450k point difference, in what part it’s decently?

There’s no point to rely on data gathered from 24 hours matchups anymore, simple because with free transfer madness it has about 10% accuracy at the moment. As long as there’s free transfer it’s no WvW, it’s Guilds vs Guilds.

My calc using +50 points for a win. -10 for a clear second place (only for Stormbluff and Blackgate) and -45 for a loss (if both servers were getting beat badly both got -45 points).

1 Henge of Denravi
2 Stormbluff Isle
3 Eredon Terrace
4 Jade Quarry
5 Crystal Desert
6 Dragonbrand
7 Isle of Janthir
8 Sea of Sorrows
9 Blackgate
10 Gate of Madness
11 Fort Aspenwood
12 Tarnished Coast
13 Maguuma
14 Yak’s Bend
15 Ehmry Bay
16 Sorrow’s Furnace
17 Sanctum of Rall
18 Darkhaven
19 Anvil Rock
20 Northern Shiverpeaks
21 Borlis Pass
22 Ferguson’s Crossing
23 Devona’s Rest
24 Kaineng

I think the unknown in the top 3 tiers is Black Gate and IoJ. Does IoJ get moved into a 2 place group or be matched up with the 3rd place server in Tier 1, JQ, and the winner from Tier 3, CD.

Either way, as a member of IoJ, I want a good fight and I think either matchup would work. I just don’t want to be matched up with SoS again. Its clear by the scoring and what we have seen this week that IoJ is has a stronger NA presence abit still smaller than most in its rank. When we get matched up with SoS it creates a situation where WvW at NA prime time is effectively a 1 v 1. and the side with the most structures has too large an advantage.

Lappdancer.4857:

My calc using +50 points for a win. -10 for a clear second place (only for Stormbluff and Blackgate) and -45 for a loss (if both servers were getting beat badly both got -45 points).

1 Henge of Denravi
2 Stormbluff Isle
3 Eredon Terrace
4 Jade Quarry
5 Crystal Desert
6 Dragonbrand
7 Isle of Janthir
8 Sea of Sorrows
9 Blackgate
10 Gate of Madness
11 Fort Aspenwood
12 Tarnished Coast
13 Maguuma
14 Yak’s Bend
15 Ehmry Bay
16 Sorrow’s Furnace
17 Sanctum of Rall
18 Darkhaven
19 Anvil Rock
20 Northern Shiverpeaks
21 Borlis Pass
22 Ferguson’s Crossing
23 Devona’s Rest
24 Kaineng

God, I hope they don’t use that formula because IoJ will be stuck with SoS. I don’t dislike them but two servers with the exact same time zone gaps ( Ioj’s is less, thus why we came in 2nd place) causes too much of an imbalance because there is not a 3rd large oceanic server.

Zenyatoo.4059:

The fort aspenwood ranking is dumb.

Tarnished Coast 59045 Sorrow’s Furnace 68483 Fort Aspenwood 98750 9/3/2012
Dragonbrand 46972 Fort Aspenwood 45628 Crystal Desert 129683
Ehmry Bay 38490 Dragonbrand 44623 Fort Aspenwood 139998

We’ve fought maguuma at least once before. And we were winning when I went to bed, but my guildy said we lost. So i’ll take them as being higher as valid.

however, tarnished got creamed by us. And while we’re tied on wins with dragonbrand, our loss to them was crystal desert more than anything, as seen by our devastating victory the second time around.

The FA brackets have just been so sad. Right out the starting gate we fought JQ…
Then after our win we had to face crystal desert and bounced down again
After that win we had to face janthir… Then it decided we were still totally good enough to face sorrows… (Note how both janthir and sorrows are above crystal desert. So we lost to crystal, won 1 match and suddenly the brackets thought it was totally cool to back to back us against teams above the people who just got done creaming us)
Then it decides to send us against crystal desert AGAIN
At which point we finally get some matchups we can win (2 of them)
before it says “hey aspenwood, know who you havent fought in a while? CRYSTAL DEEEEESEEEERT”

Its like, every time we start to do good it just decides to lump us against CD and drop us down some more.

CD appreciates the ego boost the FA win provides us

MikeFerguson.8921:

I expect to see a good bit of churn in the rankings because of the blowouts we have in the current matchups.

I think the 24 hour matchups did a decent job of separating servers so they matched up decently for that style of play, but it took a couple of matches to get there. I am fairly sure it will take a couple 7 day matches before the rankings are more representative of long term performance as well.

Some worlds are great at 24 hour matches, but a 7 day match plays out much differently than a 24 hour match. I expect that the servers that are dominating during non peak hours will start to float to the top of the rankings after winning matches against worlds that don’t have great 24 hour coverage, and eventually those worlds will be in put in matches that reflect their abilities during all hours of the day.

I do not expect things to somehow magically be much better in the next match, but I do expect that matchups should start getting better as worlds will now start being sorted based on their 7 day performances.

Its upsetting how calm and unconcerned your tone is about the prior match ups. Look at the data Mike, 95% of those match ups were mathematically impossible for the other two teams to win days prior to the end up the match up.

30% of the player base is in WvW do you really want to not provide them with a competitive match?

Please consider changing the match ups to 3-4 days for now while populations level off and you get more ranking data. 7 days to clear each noncompetitive match up is just way too long.

At what time will the matches change exactly?

The people on IoJ and SoS complaining about havin to compete durin their prime time and then the NA heavy server having all the focus during their prime time is super lulz to every single NA server except the ones with super heavy Oceanic presence.

Thank you for realizing exactly why we all hate being matched against IoJ or SoS for example. The 2 NA servers always have lots of competition in their prime time and then IoJ/SoS cleans up during theirs.

You’ve now experienced the same thing as everyone else, congrats!

To the people flipping on Mike : you’re misinterpreting what was said.

By the end of the 24 hour matches things WERE fairly competitive in most tiers due to matchmaking.

Now we are in a whole new world with 1 week matchups and the system needs time to again pair fairly competitive servers against each other.

Sit back, relax, and try to have some fun.

tbox.2307:

God, I hope they don’t use that formula because IoJ will be stuck with SoS. I don’t dislike them but two servers with the exact same time zone gaps ( Ioj’s is less, thus why we came in 2nd place) causes too much of an imbalance because there is not a 3rd large oceanic server.

I would have thought that SoS was exactly the team we on IoJ need to be matched up against because we hate them kittencowardly backstabbing evil scum) and they play at the same time as our peak times and we are better than them.

It’s the third server that is harder to pick.

MikeFerguson.8921:

I do not expect things to somehow magically be much better in the next match, but I do expect that matchups should start getting better as worlds will now start being sorted based on their 7 day performances.

I hope you like surprises then. I can already see lower population servers beginning the losing spiral already and we are only a few hours in to the new wvw cycle.

As long as you can transfer from a lower pop server to a higher pop one losing servers in wvw will continue to become ghost towns. Once one side gets gets even a marginal population advantage in a battleground they just begin rolling up everyone, and once that starts happening the losing sides lose the will to fight, making the problem worse.