Guild Wars 2

Unfortunatly, theoretically this can happen (even if it is very unlikely)
Assume Blackgate rolls a -1 and FC and ET both roll a +1
This would give
Blackgate 2193 – 400 = 1793
Fergusson Crossing 919 + 400 = 1319
Eredon Terrace 879 + 400 = 1279

As 1793 is less than 800 away from 1279 everyone in between can “roll out”:
A server with 1400 points or more can roll +400 resulting to be out with 1800
A server with 1600 points or less can roll -400 resulting to be out with 1200

As said it is unlikely, but I think it should be impossible.
A possible roll of +/-400 is just to much! It means that theoretically servers with a rating distance of 1600 points can meet.

Already time to reduce the range I would say.

pffffffff

let it happen

fc and et would get 100 rating each from being spawn camped all week even though bg would xbe ticking at 680+ the entire time

freeeeeeeeeeeeee raaaaaaaaaaaaaating!

lon no, its already horrible with SoR – TC – SoS

I read before the new system was used that the odds of jade quarry(3rd rank) getting into a match with et was 1 in a billion, add onto that the odds of fc being thrown in there as well and you get a pretty insane number. if such a statistical fluke did occur. I would bow gracefully to lady luck, send my sympathies to fc and et and move on. Just because something can happen doesn’t mean it is reasonable to expect it to, and certainly such a scenario shouldn’t be used to determine our wvw system.

Yeah the probability is low, but that theoretical worst case example means that ANY pairing is possible with the current range and some (still bad ones) are less unlikely.

If Blackgate – FC – ET should be 1 in a billion
a T1 vs FC – ET is 3 in a billion
a T1 -any server – A T8 is more than 3×21×3 = 189 in a billion
…

If you sum up all the single probabilities of very bad matches you get the probability that each weak contains a very bad match and that isn’t that unlikely anymore.

the math here is wrong.

it’s not rating plus or minus up to 400, it’s rating plus or minus up to (deviation + 40). for a server with a deviation of 100, that would be plus or minus 140. a server with a deviation of 200 would be plus or minus 240. see this post for the details about the matchup math:
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/big-changes-coming-to-wvw-matchups/

right now all the NA ratings lie between 170 and 195, so the matchup deviations would fall between 210 and 235 rating points.

I ran a simulation of 100,000,000 matches and BG+FC+ET didn’t come up once. first, their ratings are too far apart making such a matchup impossible. but even if the worst-case deviations allowed them to overlap, for a match like that to happen, not only do BG, FC and ET need exactly the right rolls, but every server between them also needs exactly the right roll to not end up inserting themselves between any of them.

In 100,000,000 simulated matchups the worst that came out was BG+EB+AR (and that combination came up only one time).

-ken

to more directly answer the actual question:

based on estimated ratings based on scores as of yesterday late afternoon, it is not in fact possible for BG, FC and ET to get matched up. not just unlikely, impossible.

BG cannot possibly end up with a match rating any lower than 1975 (2188 – 40 – 173).

FC cannot possibly end up with a match rating higher than 1138 (917 + 40 + 181).

ET cannot possibly end up with a match rating higher than 1105 (882 + 40 + 183).

because FC and ET’s highest possible match ratings are still far below BG’s lowest possible match rating, this matchup cannot happen.

-ken

I sure it would be a lot of data but have you posted your findings somewhere?

Zikory.6871:

I sure it would be a lot of data but have you posted your findings somewhere?

yes, they’re posted here:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/wuv/wuv/Server-Match-up-is-TERRIBLE/2203221

the program I use to do the calculations is posted here:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/community/api/Simple-C-Example-Rating-Calculation/2154273

-ken

The weight of random rolls needs to be decreased to 25% or 50% of what it currently is. The current setup just…stinks.

Snowreap.5174:

the math here is wrong.

I would say my math is correct, but somehow I got the constants wrong, so the worst case match is one with ( 4 times (EU deviation 170-231, NA deviation 171-193) + 40)): servers of 800-1000 points away.

Snowreap.5174:

BG cannot possibly end up with a match rating any lower than 1975 (2188 – 40 – 173).

Bg cannot be rolled less than 1975,

But it can match anyone up to 1375.
1375+ roll = 1575, everyone (all but one (i.e. blue) to be precise) in between can roll out (> 1775 rolls +1, < 1775 rolls -1)

Still a lot isn’t it?

a bit lower than 1375 actually. Anvil Rock looks like they’ll end up with a rating of 1339 after this week’s match, and in 100,000,000 random simulated matchups they got BG 14 times.

but your other math is still wrong. here’s an example. let’s suppose there are 6 servers, with the following ratings and deviations:
Server A 2400 100
Server B 2375 100
Server C 2350 100
Server D 2325 100
Server E 400 50
Server F 375 50

just looking at the rating variation, you’d think that servers E and F can’t possibly play any of the top 4 — the ratings cannot possibly overlap.

but matches are played in groups of 3. whichever 3 of the top 4 get the highest rating matchups will play each other, and the server that’s left over will face the bottom 2.

to properly calculate the likelihoods you have to simulate the entire matchup process, because the matches aren’t independent — whether A and F face each other depends on what happens with B, C, D and E.

that’s what makes BG vs ET impossible — there are too many servers between them, and there is no combination of random rolls that can prevent at least 2 servers from getting between BG and ET. once 2 servers get between BG and ET, those two servers will be 3 positions apart and won’t face each other.

-ken

Yes, if these are the only servers E & F surely play again any of A, B, C or D
Which depends on the roll of A, B, C and D.
A, E, F can happen (e.g. A roll -1 everyone else rolls 1)

They do not have to overlap! It must only be possible that everyone in between is able to roll out. And this can definitely happen if the servers are only 4 * (“min server deviation” + 40) apart.

And yes, if your constants (+40 instead of +200) are right, BG can currently neither match FC nor ET

yes. E & F must play one of A, B, C or D regardless of how big the ratings difference.

so looking at the current NA ratings:

if FC and ET roll +1.0 tomorrow, their match ratings will be 1130 and 1101. if every server above them rolls -1.0, then everybody from IoJ down to DR will end up with match ratings below 1101.

BG will have a match rating of 1979, so for BG to face FC and ET, no other server can get a match rating between 1130 and 1979.

but the 12 servers ranging from SoR down to SBI can’t possibly be set up to all avoid ratings in that range. even if all 12 of them roll +1.0, their match ratings will range from 2419 through 1706.

that’s what makes BG+FC+ET impossible — no matter what rolls BG, FC and ET get, the 6 servers Mag, Kain, YB, CD, EB and SBI will end up with match ratings somewhere between ET and FC’s highest possible match rating and BG’s lowest possible.

BG could conceivably face 2 out of those 6, and ET and FC could conceivably face 1 out of those 6, but BG cannot possibly get FC and ET.

-ken

Elwin.2583:

lon no, its already horrible with SoR – TC – SoS

To be fair, SoR – X – X is pretty much a terrible matchup these days.

I recently switched to ET and would have no problem playing against SOR. I actually prefer to be outmanned and have a lot of objectives in front of me available. The issue is that SOR would lose a lot of points playing a low tier server unless SOR play to their full potential. But the current mindset of players is just to win a particular weeks matchup by a reasonable margin. With the new ratings system however, sometimes you have to win by a lot more. This is why Blackgate is ranked number 1 now. Because SOR was complacent with their win against lower ranked servers this week. I have found I am really liking this new system. It really does demand consistency from a server as well as using different tactics depending on who their opponent is.

If this happened, I wouldn’t be surprised if both ET and FC just packed it in for the week. The ratings system doesn’t really matter in this scenario because honestly, what enjoyment would any of those servers have.

There is outmanned, then there is OUTMANNED. I don’t know what Blackgate is like, but literally they could probably produce enough people to secure all 4 maps within 2hrs of reset then spawn camp the rest of the week.

In the above scenario, what good is the rating at this point? Is anyone from FC or ET going to be pleased about their rating if they possibly can’t make it 10ft out of their spawn point?

DeadlySynz.3471:

In the above scenario, what good is the rating at this point? Is anyone from FC or ET going to be pleased about their rating if they possibly can’t make it 10ft out of their spawn point?

what a silly question… been there done that. our communities handle it. but the forums suffer in our place and get qq thread spam.

DeadlySynz.3471:

If this happened, I wouldn’t be surprised if both ET and FC just packed it in for the week. The ratings system doesn’t really matter in this scenario because honestly, what enjoyment would any of those servers have.

There is outmanned, then there is OUTMANNED. I don’t know what Blackgate is like, but literally they could probably produce enough people to secure all 4 maps within 2hrs of reset then spawn camp the rest of the week.

In the above scenario, what good is the rating at this point? Is anyone from FC or ET going to be pleased about their rating if they possibly can’t make it 10ft out of their spawn point?

I’ll LOL at those idiots who came from t1 and is forced to spawn camp to get some of this o so rare thing called a kill in t8.

But in all seriousness, ill still play, so long as my guild plays, we’ve played outmaned before, running 5man v15 before, but t1 server will be more like 60, but itll drop since theyll get bored and go pve.

Bones.5762:

DeadlySynz.3471:

If this happened, I wouldn’t be surprised if both ET and FC just packed it in for the week. The ratings system doesn’t really matter in this scenario because honestly, what enjoyment would any of those servers have.

There is outmanned, then there is OUTMANNED. I don’t know what Blackgate is like, but literally they could probably produce enough people to secure all 4 maps within 2hrs of reset then spawn camp the rest of the week.

In the above scenario, what good is the rating at this point? Is anyone from FC or ET going to be pleased about their rating if they possibly can’t make it 10ft out of their spawn point?

I’ll LOL at those idiots who came from t1 and is forced to spawn camp to get some of this o so rare thing called a kill in t8.

But in all seriousness, ill still play, so long as my guild plays, we’ve played outmaned before, running 5man v15 before, but t1 server will be more like 60, but itll drop since theyll get bored and go pve.

Actually in the current tier 2 match up sor players got bored and transferred back into t1 instead of doing pve and that was against the 4th and 7th ranked servers they would probably leave and never come back against t8 lol. No such thing as loyalty in tier 1.

Tobias Steele.2071:

Actually in the current tier 2 match up sor players got bored and transferred back into t1 instead of doing pve and that was against the 4th and 7th ranked servers they would probably leave and never come back against t8 lol. No such thing as loyalty in tier 1.

Would be a success of the new system: spread out of the T1-population to create more more balanced servers.
But they better spread out to all servers (not no other overpopulated serves) to avoid creating the next unbalanced match that bore them.

DeadlySynz.3471:

If this happened, I wouldn’t be surprised if both ET and FC just packed it in for the week. The ratings system doesn’t really matter in this scenario because honestly, what enjoyment would any of those servers have.

I’m not going to say that I speak on behalf of ET (but I think many share my view), but we aren’t packing in jack kitten. Ever.

Smart is relative I guess so take this with a grain of salt but………

I think the “smart” thing to do at this point is for FC and ET to double-team their opponents. There are three servers in each matchup and I feel that when you have a situation where you are being overwhelmingly outmanned, the enemy of your enemy should become your friend. To me, it almost seems that Anet intended this by including an odd number of servers in the matchups.

What do we “win” by doing this, though? Tougher opponents? A move to Tier 7 and more of the same? I don’t know that the “rewards” for winning are very rewarding in the case of FC and ET.

At the end of the day, I’m fine with being in T8, I’d just like to be freakin green for once.

Snowreap.5174:

Zikory.6871:

I sure it would be a lot of data but have you posted your findings somewhere?

yes, they’re posted here:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/wuv/wuv/Server-Match-up-is-TERRIBLE/2203221

the program I use to do the calculations is posted here:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/community/api/Simple-C-Example-Rating-Calculation/2154273

-ken

I also have my write up which has some visual representations on the probabilities of getting certain rank-spreads in the matches here: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/wuv/wuv/Statistics-of-the-new-ranking-system

(Mind you the deviations and ratings have changed since then)

Snowreap, have you redone your simulations for the new ratings/deviations? I’d be curious to see what you get!

yes, I rerun the numbers several times a week, but I try to avoid posting the full results more than once per week. that first link you quoted contains 3-way results recalculated as of June 12.

the program in the second link will calculate new ratings based on start-of-match ratings and the current up-to-the-minute score retrieved via the GW2 API, and it will calculate 2-way, 3-way color-neutral and 3-way color sensitive matchup probabilities via Monte Carlo simulations.

-ken

looks at all the numbers

neeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrddddddddddddddddddddddddsssssssssssssssssssss!

j/k <3

^ What Shademehr said. ET/FC have been there, done that

Signed
Former ET resident

Dayra.7405:

Would be a success of the new system: spread out of the T1-population to create more more balanced servers.
But they better spread out to all servers (not no other overpopulated serves) to avoid creating the next unbalanced match that bore them.

This does not work in practice. If a large guild were to move to say ET, (60-80 in WvW every night, dedicated); they would be bored because the enemy would just leave the map they are on. Guilds typically like to move and play as a group, so it would just be a huge karma train for them. Additionally, the enemy could swoop in as soon as they change maps and recap everything; resulting in little PPT growth.

If a low server were to get 2-3 guilds of about 30 people then they would overpower their opponents and create misery until their rating spiked high enough that they didn’t see each other much.

Remember when Kaineng stacked up. There was about 6 weeks of WvW ruined for people while they moved up.

Lastly, there is a lot of ego in T1 (not everyone and not every guild) but some actually believe that the combat is worse in lower tiers. Those folks will always stack on T1 servers and will always have “good reasons”. The truth is, people like being on top and winning.

So this won’t happen.

Those SoR folks who moonlighted, went to another T1 server and will be back on SoR tonight.