Guild Wars 2

With the end of free transfers, a lot of population is shifting around, servers are drastically changing, I was trying to figure out how it might all shake out, specifically for tier three, which is where I am at now.

Given the mass transfers to Kaineng and Maguuma I expect these servers to likely get into at least t2. This means two servers there are coming down. Obviously SBI is going down, and I think they will continue on to t4 at least. TC I think will comedown to T3 as they really haven’t gotten many more folks with the mass transfers that are occurring. CD I think is likely to go to T4, for the same reason.

So my best guess for T3 a month from now would be (in no particular order):

Fort Aspenwood, Tarnished Coast, Dragonbrand

I would love to see some alternate opinions and comments.

I expect Maguuma and FA to hold each other in Tier 3 for at least two weeks.

SoR is likely to switch places with BG next week, which means BG is likely to lose ranking to TC and SBI. SBI is still a presence despite the transfers, so I think that BG’s swap will fuel SBI enough to keep them in T2 for a little bit. I believe it will be at least two weeks before anyone drops out of T2, and I doubt very much that TC is leaving. I think we’re going to stay in 5th for quite some time.

Maguuma won’t gain as many points the first week in first place (no server does), and so FA should continue to climb. This means that next week the climb to the top of T3 will temporarily stunt Maguuma’s growth, and the following week (when they start gaining again) FA will take a slight growth hit.

Depending on how Kaineng does against DB/CD (whichever drops, I’m expecting it to be DB personally) will throw another wrench into the T3 scene. If next week ends up being another big win for Kaineng (and it should be since they’ll be blue and DB will lose ranking after dropping a tier), then it’ll be FA vs Maguuma vs Kaineng in two weeks, and I believe it will be in that order.

I think that in four weeks one of those three servers will have swapped with SBI, and I believe that it will be FA that moves up, but we’ll see. I’m still waiting to see if half of Maguuma jumps ship on the 27th just to troll the people that get left behind.

Edit:
The other T3 scenario would be Kaineng taking one additional week to swap with CD, so same situation as before but 3 weeks vs 2.

Since Mag will be green next week, an FA victory would send our rating up. If the projected ratings as of the latest scores holds for the rest of the week, SBI and FA are around 55 points away. SBI will be red though so they might not lose as much rating unless there is another blowout (which there may be). Most of Mag thinks FA will win because Mag lacks Oceanic coverage. If true, FA will win.

Mag and Kain are big questions though. They haven’t gone up against another top 10 server (SoS/JQ/BG/SoR/TC/CD/FA/DB/Mag/Kain listed by current ranking) yet. As large as their victories are, their opponents do not have anywhere near the same population and coverage as the superservers. YB is probably going to be ranked 11th after the tiers stabilize. DB beat them by a landslide with EB there to balance the score a bit. Mag winning by more than DB did can be attributed to having a dead server in the match so we can’t assume Mag is even stronger than DB yet until the next match happens.

It will be exciting to see where each server will end up in. If I had to guess, T3 will be TC, Mag, and DB in a month.

SBI lost all of its coverage. All of it. We can scrape enough to barely hold 2 towers in EB to Tier 2. We are outnumbered on every map, lack any kind of off peak presence. 5-8 small WvWvW guilds are left, as well as some structured. Militia all the happened. Transfers killed the server, we will be in tier 8 soon. This is to be expected, and will restart from scratch. We know of one hardcore group guild that joined to get outmanned fights, maybe more will come.

I don’t think Kain will reach t1 as they are boasting in every single post it seems.

should be something like:
SoS > JQ > SoR
FA > TC > BG
MG > Kain > DB/CD

Altie.4571:

FA > TC > BG

I’m just going to put it out there again, even with transfers FA is still smaller than SoR and BG, and possibly even smaller than us still (we just picked up a sizable oceanic guild this morning). TC outnumbered the old FA by quite a lot, and while Fort Aspenwood got a lot of transfers they’re not literally the size of two servers, they’re just bigger than before.

IoJ were completely outnumbered by both SoR and BG (who have both grown since then) — I don’t think a dozen IoJ guilds transferring to the smallest server in T3 makes FA a monster, I think it makes FA around the same size as TC. Putting FA ahead of both TC and BG (but especially BG) is incredibly wishful thinking.

I don’t know about the current T3 server’s relative strengths to TC. We are fairly transfer-stable, so some of them could well have surpassed us. I do agree that I’ll be extremely skeptical of putting anything ahead of Blackgate other than SoS/JQ/SoR. Blackgate is no joke lol.

Ehhh, alot of Maguuma long time players I’ve talked to don’t really care about making rank. We didn’t really want a sudden increase in population either because it takes a tonne of effort and alot of time to educate and get people accustomed to the system we have here, the history behind why it is what it is, where it works and where it doesn’t.

We kind of like technical plays (split teams, efficient distribution of forces), small team (havoc) play, good PvP (we like players like [AD] from Devona’s Rest), server organisation, the strategy of how to win (especially against numerically superior forces). I like talking about stuff like that and I have done so with many people from Ehmry Bay, Yaks Bend etc.

So all this stuff about timezone coverage and population is just meh to me. I imagine its the same for many day one Mags who are still playing. I don’t really care about who wins, I just want good PvP. Right now there is a growing number of people on Mags that don’t really understand the basics – possibly due to the recent spate of transfer mania or maybe they’ve been here for a long time but never wanted to WvW because we kept losing so much. Either way, I’d rather just get them all in the same voip channel and make them really good players at this point so we can do more technical stuff. Screw the scoreboard…

Kerithlan.1659:

Altie.4571:

FA > TC > BG

I’m just going to put it out there again, even with transfers FA is still smaller than SoR and BG, and possibly even smaller than us still (we just picked up a sizable oceanic guild this morning). TC outnumbered the old FA by quite a lot, and while Fort Aspenwood got a lot of transfers they’re not literally the size of two servers, they’re just bigger than before.

IoJ were completely outnumbered by both SoR and BG (who have both grown since then) — I don’t think a dozen IoJ guilds transferring to the smallest server in T3 makes FA a monster, I think it makes FA around the same size as TC. Putting FA ahead of both TC and BG (but especially BG) is incredibly wishful thinking.

Obviously I think there is some fluidity within the tier. With the possible exception of the latter half of T3.

But you should not underestimate when a server receives a dozen WvW guild only. 3-4 of which are able to field a zerg on a nightly basis.

Altie.4571:

I don’t think Kain will reach t1 as they are boasting in every single post it seems.

should be something like:
SoS > JQ > SoR
FA > TC > BG
MG > Kain > DB/CD

Where do we claim that in almost every post? Others like to claim we say stuff like that and we like to think we can make it, but we don’t go all over our matchup threads claiming this. I’m looking forward to reaching a tier with coverage and competition that doesn’t need breakout.

Kaineng is superior to Dragonbrand, Maguuma and Yaks, at least. Actually they’re better than any of the T3 servers we’ve ever seen drop to T4. Ehmry has fought all of these recently and none of them have remotely the 24/7 all-map coverage of Kaineng.

I’m not making a comparison of skill, really, but point-wise, Kaineng will end up in at least T2 simply because they are like the nighttime coverage of Dragonbrand, except all day long.

FA will go to t2 after eating Mag’s inflated glicko from beating a dead server. SBI will drop to t3. Kain will go to t3 after beating dragonbrand. The only question is if CD or Mag will stay t3 to make it sbi/kain/mag or cd. That’s in the next 2/3 weeks.

Eventually SBI will fall to t4 making it kain/mag/cd, then kain maybe dipping t2.

Speaking to you from a foxhole in YB’s borderland I can give you my guestimation of how Maguuma & Dragonbrand compare. Or at least last weeks DB as I believe they have picked up even more transfers this week. Both servers have comparable NA numbers though Mag has a sizeable core group of very organised & disciplined players which make them the bigger primetime power. Once the lights go out it’s a different story. DB’s nightshift would have a significant numbers advantage. Just my two cents worth…

To be honest I find the current Tier system to be badly made. Only 3 per tier? That pretty much sucks, as it’s very easy to get thrown down a tier or up one. I’d prefer if it was 6 servers per tier, that way nobody’s going to get kicked out of their current tier unless things really don’t go their way. It also randomizes who you fight for the weeks, so you don’t have constant fights weeks in a row.

For example, if CD, DB, FA, Mag, Kain, and TC were all in a tier, you could have CD v Mag v TC one week, and CD v DB v TC another week. By randomizing it every week and keeping the tiers set up a way, everybody has somebody to fight, and it makes things more interesting overall, instead of just one server dominating top place every time.

RyuDragnier.9476:

To be honest I find the current Tier system to be badly made. Only 3 per tier? That pretty much sucks, as it’s very easy to get thrown down a tier or up one. I’d prefer if it was 6 servers per tier, that way nobody’s going to get kicked out of their current tier unless things really don’t go their way. It also randomizes who you fight for the weeks, so you don’t have constant fights weeks in a row.

For example, if CD, DB, FA, Mag, Kain, and TC were all in a tier, you could have CD v Mag v TC one week, and CD v DB v TC another week. By randomizing it every week and keeping the tiers set up a way, everybody has somebody to fight, and it makes things more interesting overall, instead of just one server dominating top place every time.

I actually love that suggestion. That would make WvWvW much more interesting.

Lanimal.6541:

RyuDragnier.9476:

To be honest I find the current Tier system to be badly made. Only 3 per tier? That pretty much sucks, as it’s very easy to get thrown down a tier or up one. I’d prefer if it was 6 servers per tier, that way nobody’s going to get kicked out of their current tier unless things really don’t go their way. It also randomizes who you fight for the weeks, so you don’t have constant fights weeks in a row.

For example, if CD, DB, FA, Mag, Kain, and TC were all in a tier, you could have CD v Mag v TC one week, and CD v DB v TC another week. By randomizing it every week and keeping the tiers set up a way, everybody has somebody to fight, and it makes things more interesting overall, instead of just one server dominating top place every time.

I actually love that suggestion. That would make WvWvW much more interesting.

I like this idea too. It’s a great way to keep somewhat equal servers together while still allowing for diversity.

It would be a nightmare to score. And to provide for all possible combinations of matches it needs to last at the very least 4 weeks between the 6 servers.
Which would mean if a server got 1st place, they would be locked into that place until 4 weeks later on they could tally the scores from all matchups.

RyuDragnier.9476:

To be honest I find the current Tier system to be badly made. Only 3 per tier? That pretty much sucks, as it’s very easy to get thrown down a tier or up one. I’d prefer if it was 6 servers per tier, that way nobody’s going to get kicked out of their current tier unless things really don’t go their way. It also randomizes who you fight for the weeks, so you don’t have constant fights weeks in a row.

For example, if CD, DB, FA, Mag, Kain, and TC were all in a tier, you could have CD v Mag v TC one week, and CD v DB v TC another week. By randomizing it every week and keeping the tiers set up a way, everybody has somebody to fight, and it makes things more interesting overall, instead of just one server dominating top place every time.

Actually I have to disagree with this
for 6 server brackets would mean combining T1-2 , T3-4 and etc.
The difference between the individual tiers between T1-4 is utterly massive.
The first tier bracket if this were to be implemented (SoS, JQ, BG, SOR, TC, SBI) would show nothing but blowouts to those who belong in tier one or 1v1 situations where the original tier 2 server just sit back and be nothing but a nuisance.

LieutenantGoogle.7326:

Actually I have to disagree with this
for 6 server brackets would mean combining T1-2 , T3-4 and etc.
The difference between the individual tiers between T1-4 is utterly massive.
The first tier bracket if this were to be implemented (SoS, JQ, BG, SOR, TC, SBI) would show nothing but blowouts to those who belong in tier one or 1v1 situations where the original tier 2 server just sit back and be nothing but a nuisance.

You’d prefer for it to be kept the same as it is now? As of right now, we need a massive change in how scores are tallied and how servers are chosen to fight each other, because 3 to a tier doesn’t really work, especially when a server in T3 can be thrown to T4 and just steamroll them, without getting enough points to go back to T3. Meaning those in T4 would lose week after week and get disheartened, and the server from T3 will just get bored completely with WvW. Not saying it would be the end of it, but the tier would get mighty boring.