Guild Wars 2

By looking at new WvW score (Millenium courtesy) and after the drama effects from last Friday resets regarding to North America, until now it only benefits 5 servers:

Sea of Sorrows ……………………. (moved 2 tiers up, from previews tier)
Stormbluff Isle ……………………. (moved 2 tiers up, from previews tier)
Crystal Desert …………………….. (remains same tier, but other 2 servers went down 1 tier )
Northern Shiverpeaks ……… (moved 1 tier up, from previews tier)
Fergusson’s Crossing …………. (moved 1 tier up, from previews tier)

Common denominator involving those worlds: all are fighting servers coming from above tiers and their borderland is RED!

Regarding to tier 5, after 12 weeks in a row, my homeworld Borlis Pass matchup against Anvil Rock + Ehmry Bay (old tier 4).

Ebay population playing WvW is the double of any other servers in this tier (AR + BP). Add this to their experience in previews tier 4 and our threesome matchup end week after week in tie rounds. Finally, last week they earn the right to move up to tier 4, due to Anvil Rock sacrifice in fight less to let them go, both servers red and blue expected Stormbluff Island coming down a tier to refresh this stagnant tier 5.

Unfortunately, last Friday reset result to push back Ehmry Bay even when they start to smell tier 4 and ….. end up with a deception for all the 3 servers envolved! We think this is a forced marriage done by ArenaNet and most of the players can’t stand another matchup like this, a few are leaving GW2 while others return to PVE or doing large breaks from this game until find another with plenty of fun (this one is losing theirs)!

In resume, this week reset, can you ArenaNet give us hope and refresh tier 5? THAT WOULD BE AWESOME THANK YOU

“We cannot get out” tier 5 image, after 13 weeks:

This is not a forced match-up. Maybe next week you’ll get matched with higher tiers, or maybe lower tiers. That’s the nature of RNG. Either way, there’s going to be lots of motion in the tiers as a result of the randomness in match-ups.

Previews. Previews. Previews.

For T5 it is getting grim.

The gap between Eby and SBI has increased this week. This means that Ebay needs a higher positive random roll this Friday than it did last Friday, any negative roll keeps it in T5.

Borlis Pass is stuck in T5 unless it gets massive negative/positive roll. Its rating is stuck @ 212 points from T4 and 136 points from T6.

Anvil Rock needs a negative roll, a positive roll keeps it in T5. DH has widened the gap from T6.

All in all, the chances are greater that this match up stays the same for next weeks reset and every week that it does, it gets harder to get out of T5.

Ebay can’t win its way out and AR can’t take enough weeks off to lose its way out.

-K

Sigmar.2185:

By looking at new WvW score (Millenium courtesy) and after the drama effects from last Friday resets regarding to North America, until now it only benefits 5 servers:

Sea of Sorrows ……………………. (moved 2 tiers up, from previews tier)
Stormbluff Isle ……………………. (moved 2 tiers up, from previews tier)
Crystal Desert …………………….. (remains same tier, but other 2 servers went down 1 tier )
Northern Shiverpeaks ……… (moved 1 tier up, from previews tier)
Fergusson’s Crossing …………. (moved 1 tier up, from previews tier)

Common denominator involving those worlds: all are fighting servers coming from above tiers and their borderland is RED!

Regarding to tier 5, after 12 weeks in a row, my homeworld Borlis Pass matchup against Anvil Rock + Ehmry Bay (old tier 4).

Ebay population playing WvW is the double of any other servers in this tier (AR + BP). Add this to their experience in previews tier 4 and our threesome matchup end week after week in tie rounds. Finally, last week they earn the right to move up to tier 4, due to Anvil Rock sacrifice in fight less to let them go, both servers red and blue expected Stormbluff Island coming down a tier to refresh this stagnant tier 5.

Unfortunately, last Friday reset result to push back Ehmry Bay even when they start to smell tier 4 and ….. end up with a deception for all the 3 servers envolved! We think this is a forced marriage done by ArenaNet and most of the players can’t stand another matchup like this, a few are leaving GW2 while others return to PVE or doing large breaks from this game until find another with plenty of fun (this one is losing theirs)!

In resume, this week reset, can you ArenaNet give us hope and refresh tier 5? THAT WOULD BE AWESOME THANK YOU

“We cannot get out” tier 5 image, after 13 weeks:

Something tells me you have basically no idea how the current matchmaking system works. Here’s a hint: get away from thinking about a tiered matchmaking structure and start thinking about ratings matchups.

My server, too, drew the same opponents as last week; I can see how that might be frustrating. But hey—that happens. It’s probable that you’ll get new opponents next week.

Dumb Woob.9415:

Sigmar.2185:

By looking at new WvW score (Millenium courtesy) and after the drama effects from last Friday resets regarding to North America, until now it only benefits 5 servers:

Sea of Sorrows ……………………. (moved 2 tiers up, from previews tier)
Stormbluff Isle ……………………. (moved 2 tiers up, from previews tier)
Crystal Desert …………………….. (remains same tier, but other 2 servers went down 1 tier )
Northern Shiverpeaks ……… (moved 1 tier up, from previews tier)
Fergusson’s Crossing …………. (moved 1 tier up, from previews tier)

Common denominator involving those worlds: all are fighting servers coming from above tiers and their borderland is RED!

Regarding to tier 5, after 12 weeks in a row, my homeworld Borlis Pass matchup against Anvil Rock + Ehmry Bay (old tier 4).

Ebay population playing WvW is the double of any other servers in this tier (AR + BP). Add this to their experience in previews tier 4 and our threesome matchup end week after week in tie rounds. Finally, last week they earn the right to move up to tier 4, due to Anvil Rock sacrifice in fight less to let them go, both servers red and blue expected Stormbluff Island coming down a tier to refresh this stagnant tier 5.

Unfortunately, last Friday reset result to push back Ehmry Bay even when they start to smell tier 4 and ….. end up with a deception for all the 3 servers envolved! We think this is a forced marriage done by ArenaNet and most of the players can’t stand another matchup like this, a few are leaving GW2 while others return to PVE or doing large breaks from this game until find another with plenty of fun (this one is losing theirs)!

In resume, this week reset, can you ArenaNet give us hope and refresh tier 5? THAT WOULD BE AWESOME THANK YOU

“We cannot get out” tier 5 image, after 13 weeks:

Something tells me you have basically no idea how the current matchmaking system works. Here’s a hint: get away from thinking about a tiered matchmaking structure and start thinking about ratings matchups.

My server, too, drew the same opponents as last week; I can see how that might be frustrating. But hey—that happens. It’s probable that you’ll get new opponents next week.

The point is, i believe, the servers that were matched with a higher tier servers will likely gain score (due to being matched with a higher score servers) despite loosing. Servers that were moved down a tier will likely gain score due to outmatching the lower tier servers. Servers that stayed in the same tier will likely remain with unchanged (in any meaningful way) score. That means that the gap will widen from the previous weeks for the servers that stayed unchanged. That in turns means that the random component for the “unchanged” servers will have to be higher to move up or down, which is less likely. Meaning that the chances of t5 staying the same way will increase after this week.

Ikarushka.9564:

The point is, i believe, the servers that were matched with a higher tier servers will likely gain score (due to being matched with a higher score servers) despite loosing. Servers that were moved down a tier will likely gain score due to outmatching the lower tier servers. Servers that stayed in the same tier will likely remain with unchanged (in any meaningful way) score. That means that the gap will widen from the previous weeks for the servers that stayed unchanged. That in turns means that the random component for the “unchanged” servers will have to be higher to move up or down, which is less likely. Meaning that the chances of t5 staying the same way will increase after this week.

Your statements seem to be unclear, but I’ll try to address what you mean rather than what you’re saying. Servers matched against higher-rated servers seem to be gaining in rating. This is part of the adjustment from the artificial ratings caused by the former matchmaking system.

Even if your conjecture (given without proof, by the way—for shame) about the probability of the 5th matchup this week compared to the probability of the 5th matchup next week is true (which I’m willing to accept, given the way that Ehmry Bay is playing, even though the 12-13-14 matchup is most likely for you next week) for the first week of matchmaking, how can you argue that such a system will only result in less varied matchups as time becomes larger? This adjustment process takes more than a single match to make.

Here’s what the top-10 list of possible Ehmry Bay matchups looked like just before the current match started:

6.511720 Sea of Sorrows Crystal Desert
5.399440 Yak’s Bend Crystal Desert
5.019430 Borlis Pass Anvil Rock
4.857220 Sea of Sorrows Stormbluff Isle
4.484480 Borlis Pass Darkhaven
4.180100 Yak’s Bend Stormbluff Isle
4.031770 Kaineng Crystal Desert
3.206880 Kaineng Stormbluff Isle
2.965830 Yak’s Bend Sea of Sorrows
2.794180 Maguuma Crystal Desert

Here’s what it looks like now:

8.674800 Borlis Pass Anvil Rock
5.203620 Borlis Pass Darkhaven
4.158190 Borlis Pass Sorrow’s Furnace
4.044620 Kaineng Crystal Desert
3.993170 Yak’s Bend Crystal Desert
3.547160 Maguuma Crystal Desert
3.122490 Yak’s Bend Kaineng
3.052280 Anvil Rock Darkhaven
3.046610 Sea of Sorrows Crystal Desert
2.837190 Maguuma Kaineng

Note that in the first set, only 2 out of the top 10 potential matchups had either BP or AR as opponents.

Now 4 out of the top 10 potential matchups have either BP or AR as opponents, and the likelihood of getting one or the other has gone way up.

Yes, it’s true that the random numbers might save us next week, but it’s half as likely that we’ll get a good matchup next week as it was this week. This is why so many players on EB feel like we were screwed over by the RNG. It’s not just that we got a bad roll, but that all the servers around us got good rolls, and the combination has about doubled the chances we’ll get a bad roll next week.

-ken

I can’t help wonder if these servers who have dealt with a twelve-week old matchup finally understand the pain we felt in T8 when we had to deal with the same old bootstomping (whether it was the giving or receiving end) for fourteen weeks. On top of that we had to deal with remarks of not having deserved the tier shakeup despite evidence to the contrary.

I might just be too optimistic about the human race, though, and people are too self-entitled to see further than their own misery—even if it’s the same exact thing they assumed was a non-issue when it applied to others.

Snowreap.5174:

Here’s what the top-10 list of possible Ehmry Bay matchups looked like just before the current match started:

6.511720 Sea of Sorrows Crystal Desert
5.399440 Yak’s Bend Crystal Desert
5.019430 Borlis Pass Anvil Rock
4.857220 Sea of Sorrows Stormbluff Isle
4.484480 Borlis Pass Darkhaven
4.180100 Yak’s Bend Stormbluff Isle
4.031770 Kaineng Crystal Desert
3.206880 Kaineng Stormbluff Isle
2.965830 Yak’s Bend Sea of Sorrows
2.794180 Maguuma Crystal Desert

Here’s what it looks like now:

8.674800 Borlis Pass Anvil Rock
5.203620 Borlis Pass Darkhaven
4.158190 Borlis Pass Sorrow’s Furnace
4.044620 Kaineng Crystal Desert
3.993170 Yak’s Bend Crystal Desert
3.547160 Maguuma Crystal Desert
3.122490 Yak’s Bend Kaineng
3.052280 Anvil Rock Darkhaven
3.046610 Sea of Sorrows Crystal Desert
2.837190 Maguuma Kaineng

Note that in the first set, only 2 out of the top 10 potential matchups had either BP or AR as opponents.

Now 4 out of the top 10 potential matchups have either BP or AR as opponents, and the likelihood of getting one or the other has gone way up.

Yes, it’s true that the random numbers might save us next week, but it’s half as likely that we’ll get a good matchup next week as it was this week. This is why so many players on EB feel like we were screwed over by the RNG. It’s not just that we got a bad roll, but that all the servers around us got good rolls, and the combination has about doubled the chances we’ll get a bad roll next week.

-ken

You’re going from a .950 chance of no rematch to a .913 chance of no rematch.

Okay. This is mostly explained by your rating decrease this week. Again, n=1 is bad luck, not an inescapable black hole..but really whining about the dealer getting Blackjack is kind of silly, yes?

Oh well.

it’s not an inescapable hole, but it is a hole and bad rolls have made it twice as deep as it used to be. we now have >8.5% chance of getting both AR and BP again next week, and a 37.4% chance of getting either one.

having a .950 chance of no rematch is little comfort when a rematch is exactly what we got, despite the odds.

-ken

Point being anet NEEDS to reroll if ebay faces the same opponents….I dont care if JQ goes to T8 get us the kitten away from AR/BP.

On my server, consensus seems to be that we’d rather be back in Tier 7, not moving up or down. We never asked for this randomised enemy bull.

Look at it this way – you have a 91% chance of NOT getting the same matchup again.

I’m a bit disappointed though that it seems SoS and Ebay are unlikely to face off next week.

Jinks.2057:

Point being anet NEEDS to reroll if ebay faces the same opponents….I dont care if JQ goes to T8 get us the kitten away from AR/BP.

So you don’t care if we don’t get to play wvw at all for a week? Thanks for that.

I’ve been one of those that favors the new matchmaking system. Its not what I would have chosen, but its better than the original method.

The more I look at it though, the more it seems like the entire rating system is the problem. Its not that the ratings are wrong, in fact they pretty much are accurate in terms of a servers “position” in the rankings at any given time. But if something changes, the ratings take way too long to adjust.

On top of that, the whole tier system it bad. There are not just two other servers that would make good matchups for your server. There are in fact a number of combinations of servers that would be good matchups.

What we need is a system that gives more variance in the possible matchups. But limits that variance to those servers that would be “good” matches for your server.

I’m willing to give this system more time but I’m not convinced that it will give the variety needed. Given the arguments in this thread, if accurate, it seems like things may quickly stagnate again. Or you’re going to be fliping between getting dominated and dominating.

Sigmar.2185:

In resume, this week reset, can you ArenaNet give us hope and refresh tier 5? THAT WOULD BE AWESOME THANK YOU

It refreshes every week, just hope each server rolls something very different, THAT is your hope!
Still that’s the randomness that is WvW, there are far worse servers for us to face than Ehmry, while we’ve fought them long enough it’s not very exciting as we know the outcome when the week begins :P

The winning server should roll [0,1] instead of [-1,1].

Youch/EBay/CoF

Johje Holan.4607:

I’ve been one of those that favors the new matchmaking system. Its not what I would have chosen, but its better than the original method.

The more I look at it though, the more it seems like the entire rating system is the problem. Its not that the ratings are wrong, in fact they pretty much are accurate in terms of a servers “position” in the rankings at any given time. But if something changes, the ratings take way too long to adjust.

On top of that, the whole tier system it bad. There are not just two other servers that would make good matchups for your server. There are in fact a number of combinations of servers that would be good matchups.

What we need is a system that gives more variance in the possible matchups. But limits that variance to those servers that would be “good” matches for your server.

I’m willing to give this system more time but I’m not convinced that it will give the variety needed. Given the arguments in this thread, if accurate, it seems like things may quickly stagnate again. Or you’re going to be fliping between getting dominated and dominating.

Except this is EXACTLY what this system is intending to do.

The concept is that the old system was too restrictive and really was less reflective of a servers actual rating.

Meaning say there were T2 servers that could probably match up to T1 servers etc.

It causes stagnating in tiers because your ratings are simply based on two other servers (not exactly a good sample size to gauge how strong your server is on the whole)

So they basically are widening the matchups, which initially will lead blowouts and some skewed matches at first, because the scores need to re-adjust over time to more accurately represent the strength of your server (since the sample size is now increased) similar to them resetting everyone’s ratings and the fluctuation that would result from that would eventually even out. There will still be inherent volatility because of the rng, but once the ratings settle the matchups created should be much more closely matched.

$5 says that it results in us fighting BP and AR about the same as usual. XD

We were so optimistic going into this Friday’s reset because the odds were very much in our favor. I think we’re all just feeling like no matter how good the chances are for a fresh match, they are worse than they were last week, so it’s almost a foregone conclusion that we are drawing that same straw.

I really hope that it swings us into another match because the level of excitement pre-reset was huge. Our guild had over 100 people online waiting to storm the castle. We maintained a good level of activity anyways, but the reset really did pull the wind from our server’s sails.

Here’s looking to next reset, and “may the odds be ever in your favor!”

Khayoss.2019:

We were so optimistic going into this Friday’s reset because the odds were very much in our favor. I think we’re all just feeling like no matter how good the chances are for a fresh match, they are worse than they were last week, so it’s almost a foregone conclusion that we are drawing that same straw.

I really hope that it swings us into another match because the level of excitement pre-reset was huge. Our guild had over 100 people online waiting to storm the castle. We maintained a good level of activity anyways, but the reset really did pull the wind from our server’s sails.

Here’s looking to next reset, and “may the odds be ever in your favor!”

You have one guild that can field 100 people in WvW? Wow. I might have to rethink my desire to go up against you all (SBI here). (Just kidding but that is a lot. I really do want to get matched up with you all.)

Johje Holan.4607:

Khayoss.2019:

We were so optimistic going into this Friday’s reset because the odds were very much in our favor. I think we’re all just feeling like no matter how good the chances are for a fresh match, they are worse than they were last week, so it’s almost a foregone conclusion that we are drawing that same straw.

I really hope that it swings us into another match because the level of excitement pre-reset was huge. Our guild had over 100 people online waiting to storm the castle. We maintained a good level of activity anyways, but the reset really did pull the wind from our server’s sails.

Here’s looking to next reset, and “may the odds be ever in your favor!”

You have one guild that can field 100 people in WvW? Wow. I might have to rethink my desire to go up against you all (SBI here). (Just kidding but that is a lot. I really do want to get matched up with you all.)

We have three guilds that can pull those numbers. Last time I was scrutinizing TS, I saw 70 PK/Para in the PK channel, there were 60-70 GH+Company in the GH channel, and FTF had around 60 as well. Our TS was over 300 players online, all active in WvW.

It’s cool to hear PK also has that activity. I wasn’t sure what their numbers were like until now, but I knew that both GH and FTF often have 100+ players online at night. So that makes at least three guilds that can pull those numbers (not counting PvE guilds that might decide to become more active in WvW).

I can’t wait for new opponents ;(

Faux Sheaux.6179

We have three guilds that can pull those numbers. Last time I was scrutinizing TS, I saw 70 PK/Para in the PK channel, there were 60-70 GH+Company in the GH channel, and FTF had around 60 as well. Our TS was over 300 players online, all active in WvW.

It’s cool to hear PK also has that activity. I wasn’t sure what their numbers were like until now, but I knew that both GH and FTF often have 100+ players online at night. So that makes at least three guilds that can pull those numbers (not counting PvE guilds that might decide to become more active in WvW).

I can’t wait for new opponents ;(

I’m pretty sure that triple digits for reset was a first for us, but when we’re amped up for something, ya I don’t see why that couldn’t happen any reset. EBay’s ‘big 3’ are really focused WvW guilds. I know there are lots of guilds out there that have 300-500 members, but to have 3 guilds like that who’s members all tend to put WvW first makes for a great backbone to our server. I really love our community and how we work together.

If Para, IMTL, VS, Spe or anyone else are ever able to step into the “4” spot, it sure would be nice to have 1 main guild and 1 support guild per borderland assignment. Sometimes I have wet dreams about sekz quadrupling their numbers and running in 4 squads all over a BL… don’t judge me.

Khayoss.2019:

Faux Sheaux.6179

We have three guilds that can pull those numbers. Last time I was scrutinizing TS, I saw 70 PK/Para in the PK channel, there were 60-70 GH+Company in the GH channel, and FTF had around 60 as well. Our TS was over 300 players online, all active in WvW.

It’s cool to hear PK also has that activity. I wasn’t sure what their numbers were like until now, but I knew that both GH and FTF often have 100+ players online at night. So that makes at least three guilds that can pull those numbers (not counting PvE guilds that might decide to become more active in WvW).

I can’t wait for new opponents ;(

I’m pretty sure that triple digits for reset was a first for us, but when we’re amped up for something, ya I don’t see why that couldn’t happen any reset. EBay’s ‘big 3’ are really focused WvW guilds. I know there are lots of guilds out there that have 300-500 members, but to have 3 guilds like that who’s members all tend to put WvW first makes for a great backbone to our server. I really love our community and how we work together.

If Para, IMTL, VS, Spe or anyone else are ever able to step into the “4” spot, it sure would be nice to have 1 main guild and 1 support guild per borderland assignment. Sometimes I have wet dreams about sekz quadrupling their numbers and running in 4 squads all over a BL… don’t judge me.

I feel for EB; SoS and CD went out of their way to 2v1 SBI the last week just to get you into our matchup.

I think the situation is even worse than you think though. You essentially rolled a 0. Next week you can roll a very low number ~-0.75 and face lower ranked servers that will make you lose points simply because they show up.

In the rating system, DB is moving up to #4 because they drew two enemies with smaller NA and no nighttime. Meanwhile TC is going down in points simply because SoS isn’t playing to script and dying.

Even changing 1 member of the matchup can compleatly shift the balance of the match and make it much fresher. Under the old system yes you would have goten a new match this week and then 4-5 weeks down the line that matchup would be geting stale because you’d now be stuck in T4 instead of T5 (asumeing you didnt drop back down) Now the chances of geting at least 1 opponant different from last week is much much higher other than the fringe cases of changeing tiers. The chances of both opponance changeing are still very high.

Yes luck of the draw kinda hurt you this week. Your server managed to roll a 1 on a d20 for a critical failure and got the repeat match. While your luck could be very bad and it could happen agian you are far more likely to end up in a different match. Yes you may have one of your old bedfellows there with you but you could also end up in a match like the T3 one where you loose by a landslide and still pick up twice as much rating as you lost this week.

While this week is bad for you do to pure bad luck in the long run your going to have more varied opponents far more often than before.

In the rating system, DB is moving up to #4 because they drew two enemies with smaller NA and no nighttime. Meanwhile TC is going down in points simply because SoS isn’t playing to script and dying.

It took weeks of hard fought battles to get TC back to 4th position and in one week Anet undid all that work. I’m happy for the people that needed to rating help, but DB isn’t one of those servers. Nothing against DB, it just shows the flaws in the rating system.

Could be so easy:

Winner goes up, loser goes down system and middle server stays in the tier = this will guarantee each server plays 2 new servers every week except the top and bottom tiers.

But instead, for example in our tier 5, Arena.net forced AR+BP+EB in a threesome life:

Sigmar.2185:

Could be so easy:

Winner goes up, loser goes down system and middle server stays in the tier = this will guarantee each server plays 2 new servers every week except the top and bottom tiers.

But instead, for example in our tier 5, Arena.net forced AR+BP+EB in a threesome life:

Uh, not sure that’s a good example. That is not a threesome I’d be looking to get out of.