Q:
What Determines Color Changes on Reset?
A:
Colors are based upon (if I recall correctly) ranking. As in, where did the server finish for that week.
As for the opponent match up, they take the top 3 servers based on the server rating shown here
Ranking isn’t really Important, glicko +/- ~80 (random) is used to determine the Match-Rank, which is them used to make the Matches 1 vs 2 vs 3 in this random modified Match-Rank.
Until ANet makes a change to the way the match-ups happen (or one of those 2 servers implodes) you will always fight them… there is the chance that FA will overtake the 3rd place server and move up but that is not a guarantee.
1. after the end of the previous match, calculate new ratings for every server based on the scores from the previous match and the ratings of the 3 servers involved. these new ratings are displayed on the WvW leaderboard.
2. add or subtract a random value to each server’s rating. the maximum amount of randomness depends on a server’s “deviation” (part of their rating) but will never be more than 100 points higher or lower than a server’s official rating. this value is the “matchup rating”, used only for the next step and not otherwise saved or recorded.
3. sort the servers by matchup rating, highest to lowest, then group them into threes for matchups. within each matchup, the server with the highest matchup rating gets green and the server with the lowest matchup rating gets red.
that, in a nutshell, is how colors (and matchups) are determined. not totally random, but there is some randomness involved. how much randomness depends on your rating and the ratings of the servers near you.
I ran the numbers, and the way the ratings look right now, TC has a 25.9% chance of getting green, 37.3% chance of getting blue, and 36.8% chance of getting red
as for your other question, it is currently not possible for TC to get any opponents other than JQ and BG. it’s not because you’re in T1, but rather it’s because of the large rating gap between rank 3 and rank 4 (over 200 points) which is a bigger gap than the randomness (which is limited to 100 points) can overcome.
-ken