Guild Wars 2

This isn’t a troll question, I’m legitimately curious where they’re pulling their data from. To the best of my knowledge, Anet has no data to test the effectiveness of RNG vs. listing (without RNG) on the gemstore. I recall the Christmas skins and the Rox/Brahm skins were available without RNG, but these are generally unpopular skins, and I do not believe provide a valid comparison to the other BLC RNG items (e.g. Fused).

Do you think this policy is the result of testing on other games, like Aion? Not having played those I couldn’t say.

Edit: I posted this in “Blood and Madness” as it pertains to the new BLC items.

They’ve always used RNG. All MMO’s use RNG.

DarcShriek.5829:

They’ve always used RNG. All MMO’s use RNG.

I meant more so do they have any substantive data that RNG earns more money than just listing the item at a fixed price?

At first glance RNG seems like a clever pricing tool to capture willingness-to-pay across the board, but I (incorrectly) assumed that decreasing consumer goodwill would negatively impact that over time.

DarcShriek.5829:

They’ve always used RNG. All MMO’s use RNG.

But that doesn’t mean RNG is the best option.

I’m sure that they have the data and study it because they would be fools not to. I’m also sure that they will never disclose information one way or the other due to confidentiality. Most companies/corporations keep their financial intake data confidential to investors.

So far the christmas weapon skins, rox’s bow and quiver, braham’s mace and shield (BTW, I disagree they were unpopular, most people I talked to loved them but very few actually bought them), 9 different armor sets + assorted armor items (the jubilee masks, fuzzy hats and backpacks, for example).

Jett.1239:

DarcShriek.5829:

They’ve always used RNG. All MMO’s use RNG.

I meant more so do they have any substantive data that RNG earns more money than just listing the item at a fixed price?

At first glance RNG seems like a clever pricing tool to capture willingness-to-pay across the board, but I (incorrectly) assumed that decreasing consumer goodwill would negatively impact that over time.

No, you’re about right. That is exactly what will happen, and is already starting to happen.

RNG via real money will always give more money over just selling the item outright. Because people are buying tons of lottery boxes over and over to get that chance of getting what they want. Where is, with selling it outright, people buy one or two and that’s it.

But you’re right. In the long run, this is going to cost them. Not money (well maybe money), but respect, loyalty, and players. They see their customers as money bags, instead of actual people. They look at it as “how can we con more money out of them this time?” instead of “what would our players enjoy that would keep them around long term?”. They’d rather make the quick buck off us now instead of giving us a fair deal. Which in turn upsets players that they are treated this way, and causes them to lose all loyalty and respect that they once had for the company. Thus, no longer spending any money at all, when they would of if the items were sold straight up.

In turn, they end up losing more players in the long run cause of these cheap tactics, losing the loyalty and respect of their current player base, and money in the long run. But they don’t care about that. They just care about what us money bags can give them right now, rather than what will happen to the game in the future.

And thats why Las Vegas is a Ghost Town now

Beldin.5498:

And thats why Las Vegas is a Ghost Town now

You seem to not understand the difference between real life and a video game.

Las Vegas is designed for gambling. That is its sole purpose. To gamble.

GW2 is not a gambling simulator. It’s an MMORPG. But the direction their gem store is going, it is becoming one.

DarcShriek.5829:

They’ve always used RNG. All MMO’s use RNG.

That’s the biggest problem with MMO’s. It’s the laziest way to add play time.

To answer OP, yes. GW1 costume skin were wildly popular. Towards the end of the game, you were likely to see costumes more often than actual armor. These were direct purchases, no RNG involved.

Super Adventure Box didn’t use RNG for its skins. I still consider that particular event the absolute best one for rewards in all of GW2.

@SpyderArachnid.5619:

I suppose I was just wrong about how long it would take to burn through that consumer good will. Every patch I half-expect to see non-rng items on the gem store, every patch I’m mistaken.

Electro.4173:

Super Adventure Box didn’t use RNG for its skins. I still consider that particular event the absolute best one for rewards in all of GW2.

True, but they also didn’t make SAB skins directly available over the gem store. I suppose my original point (or question) is that ANet has never directly A/B tested RNG vs. straight gem store purchases (aside from the Christmas skins, which weren’t a fair data point).

Guild Wars 1 only had a few select areas that had an RNG elements to them. However it was not as overbearing as it is now. As a matter of fact there were no digital store items that heavily reflected a RNG system. Now Arena Net has a small division specialist that deal with monetization/digital transactions including John Smith who is their “economist,” and Crystin Cox their “monetization lead.” The former used to post on the forums all the time and talk about things being done in the black lion trading post. However I have noticed that John posts less then he used to. Crystin Cox on the other hand really has been kept in the dark, ever since the controversy surrounding her former employment at Nexon was a hot topic.

The problem with the RNG system being an exclusive element for your rewards, is the topic of artificial luck with this system. There is no is no truly perfect RNG system and there will probably never be one for the time being. It’s how the system works at being less intrusive and more intuitive to make the game entertaining to actually play. Basically balancing out the rewards that you get so people have an equal chance of getting anything in game without being punished for using it. The RNG system in GW2 is so widely spread throughout the game that people feel the obvious time sink. Especially when people are rewarded less for using it, over those who favor just buying the item straight from wherever it’s offered.

Nevertheless after the recent mock election in game between Kiel and Gnashblade I have noticed that they are trying tune down the RNG for rewards. However on the flip note they have sky rocketed prices for certain items you can acquire. There has to be a middle ground so people can enjoy system instead of loathing it. However Arena Net has yet to find this middle ground. The other issue is quality of the rewards you get is a major factor when it comes using a RNG system. If they poor in quality then it will reflect in sales.

you get different people buying the item if you sell it with rng vs. outright. with rng, you attract gamblers. with outright, you attract everyone. gamblers are notorious for spending more per person, whereas everyone has more people.
there have been a few gem store items that weren’t rng. the ones you mentioned. there have also been several outfits and fun things (kite, boombox, horn, town clothes, tunneling machine, broom). almost all of them were out-of-combat items.

Ncsoft is breathing down Anet’s nick with their own data supporting RNG.

You think ANet would have changed the game plan by now if it wasn’t a working business model?

Markadis.9012:

You think ANet would have changed the game plan by now if it wasn’t a working business model?

My question is essentially where are they getting the data from, because there hasn’t been a valid comparison within Guild Wars 2 yet

I’m curious why you think the Rox/Braham and the Christmas skins were not popular as skins? Is it because you saw/see few of them? If so, could that not be because selling direct is not as effective as selling using RNG, so few people bought them?

I’d guessing that selling gambling is FAR more profitable than selling direct, at least in the short term. We’re stuck with the gambling in this game.

I am disappointed that the RNG items don’t come as drops in this event (either directly or like the Jade Dragon Tickets). It’s just getting worse and worse.

Pavillion skins were earned.

Jett.1239:

I meant more so do they have any substantive data that RNG earns more money than just listing the item at a fixed price?

Substantive data?

The data is MapleStory.
Nexon’s cash-cow of America, which has cosmetic clothes that expire in 3 months, a cash-currency-operated random-item-generator, and an item-shop run entirely on their cash-currency.
(And in case you didn’t know, a former-Nexon-marketing-staff is working at ArenaNet; I’m surprised Dyes haven’t weren’t restricted to gems-only)

I remember this one event where friends bought over $200 for an equivalent of the Black Lion Chest, to try to get this limited-edition pet modeled after a cute boss (mind you, pets in Maple are way more engaging than Minis in GW2).
People were coughing up money like they had lung cancer.

MapleStory practically pioneered Free2Play and how it could be a viable MMO business model.

When anyone argues that RNG is bad, they’re basically saying MapleStory was a fluke (which it wasn’t), and all MMO marketing staff laugh at such thoughts.
RNG is only “bad” for players, it’s a license to print money for the developers (assuming the game itself is popular).

@DreamOfACure:

That answered my question, it struck me as strange that ANet’s never run a fair A/B test for RNG within GuildWars, but if they’re sitting on the data from previous games, welp, that answers it. I still believe RNG diminishes consumer goodwill and in the long run hurts profits; however, this really only holds true for North American/ European players, which I’ve heard rumor to the effect don’t make up the bulk of the player base.

Last Holiday (December) seasons they did not use RNG for anything (I don’t think). Straight skin purchases from the gem store, and minor skins available for a very reasonable amount of stuff.

Apparently they determined that massive RNG and grind is better.