Guild Wars 2

I opened 1200 gold chests, 122 silvers and 164 bronze chests. That’s over 14,000 champ bags.

No precursors. Zero!

I got about 700+ T6 mats.
8 stacks of each of Tier 5 mats.
21 stacks silk
20 stacks of thick leather
20 stacks of mithril

300+ rares
80+ exotics (6 bonetti’s rapier)

And with the tokens, about 300 heavy crafting bags.

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

Nice job getting that many to open. Lots of good stuff in there.

-misunderstood-
-disregard-
Do you mean over 1,400 instead of 14,000?
1,200 + 122 + 164 = 1,486
Just curious if the error is in the 14,000 or in the number of individual types of bags opened.

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

coj coj coj . . . . emmm

StinVec.3621:

Do you mean over 1,400 instead of 14,000?

1,200 + 122 + 164 = 1,486

Just curious if the error is in the 14,000 or in the number of individual types of bags opened.

He had that many Chests, the chests open to give many champ bags.

StinVec.3621:

Do you mean over 1,400 instead of 14,000?

1,200 + 122 + 164 = 1,486

Just curious if the error is in the 14,000 or in the number of individual types of bags opened.

that’s over 1400 gauntlet boxes, which a gold box has 10 champ bags, making about 14,000.

Also, I don’t know that champ bags don’t have exotics, but even if they did, you only got 80 exotics from 14,000 bags. Seems like the exotic rate is very low.

One would expect, however, that from rolling for only 80 exotics you wouldn’t get a precursor, you’d be very lucky if you did.

Thank you for explaining that 1 gauntlet chest gives 10 bags, so their number is multiplied by 10 then to reach 14,000.

Champ bags are not always “bags” and are titled as being “chests” as well.
I believed they were talking about general bags/chests from champions as I have no idea what gauntlet boxes are called or what they give as I have no interest in that festival event. I guess the grade of the individual chests mentioned in the OP implied they were from gauntlet/pavilion.

Thanks again for clearing up my misunderstanding of the OP.

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

they do, at a very very low chance, got a Chaos guns from a Gilded Coffer doing Arah P2.

Sell all you got, you’ll have enough money for your precursor.

/Endtopic.

Trice.4598:

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

they do, at a very very low rare, got a Chaos guns from a Gilded Coffer doing Arah P2.

That is a dungeon event chest, though, not a champion bag.

Wow, that’s like 10 hours a day of Pavilion for 20 days straight. Have you also converted the gauntlet tickets into chances? I’d guess you got around 25,000 of them which would take about 35 hours to clean out at the rate I burn them.

StinVec.3621:

Trice.4598:

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

they do, at a very very low rare, got a Chaos guns from a Gilded Coffer doing Arah P2.

That is a dungeon event chest, though, not a champion bag.

Gilded Coffer are champion “bag” http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Gilded_Coffer

Trice.4598:

StinVec.3621:

Trice.4598:

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

they do, at a very very low rare, got a Chaos guns from a Gilded Coffer doing Arah P2.

That is a dungeon event chest, though, not a champion bag.

Gilded Coffer are champion “bag” http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Gilded_Coffer

Dang. I’m really not understanding all of these things with chests and bags with their names and what they are. To me a coffer is literally a chest or strongbox…not a bag.
Sorry. The misleading names they give these things messes with me as what they are strays from their actual definitions. Think I will just take my leave as I am not contributing anything more than confusion. My apologies.

StinVec.3621:

Trice.4598:

StinVec.3621:

Trice.4598:

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

they do, at a very very low rare, got a Chaos guns from a Gilded Coffer doing Arah P2.

That is a dungeon event chest, though, not a champion bag.

Gilded Coffer are champion “bag” http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Gilded_Coffer

Dang. I’m really not understanding all of these things with chests and bags with their names and what they are. To me a coffer is literally a chest or strongbox…not a bag.
Sorry. The misleading names they give these things messes with me as what they are strays from their actual definitions. Think I will just take my leave as I am not contributing anything more than confusion. My apologies.

Basically there are a bunch of different bags. I believe they all have different named exotics. Gilded Coffers IIRC drop Genesis/Entropy. While another type drops Bonetti’s Rapier, and just stuff like that.

So diff champs drop diff bags which can yeild different drops.

CP gives chests that when opening give you some items as well as random styles of champ bags. More bags/loot for better quality reward chests, gold is like 10 bags, and I believe bronze is 6.

THat’s how I understand it, hope that helps, and if I’m wrong I’m sure someone will point out where and correct it

My question is, why did the OP expect a precursor?

Just to compare this, precursors also have a chance to drop from every mob out there. If you would have only killed enough mobs every day for the daily you already had more than double the amount of chances that the OP had with 14k bags.

Personally I would not even believe that the chance of a pre dropping out of a bag is higher then it dropping out in the wild, but it simply is such a small number.

Stars.2179:

I opened 1200 gold chests, 122 silvers and 164 bronze chests. That’s over 14,000 champ bags.

No precursors. Zero!

I got about 700+ T6 mats.
8 stacks of each of Tier 5 mats.
21 stacks silk
20 stacks of thick leather
20 stacks of mithril

300+ rares
80+ exotics (6 bonetti’s rapier)

And with the tokens, about 300 heavy crafting bags.

G-G-Give me that Silk, please!

You didn’t open enough ‘bags’.

Yes, really 14,000 is not enough….

The drop rate of precursors is 1 in 100,000 to 1 in a 1,000,000.

So you need a 1,000,000 bags to really tell for sure and even then you could just have really bad luck.

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

Champ bags absolutely can drop precursors

Well. I’ve played 4390 hrs and I didn’t receive any precusors. I’ve definitely opened many thousands of champ bags, wolrd bosses chests, thousands of dungeons and in the past 2-3 months I’ve played constantly with 200%+ MF.
It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

You got no precursor the same reason why many of us have killed hundreds if thousands of mob at this point in the game and have gotten zero as well

A friend of mine got the Colossus from a champion mob in AC (Not troll). So it does drop from champ bags.

Opening 14.000 shouldn’t entitle you to a precursor though, the chance is really really really really really low. I’ve opened 75.000 champ bags from the pavilion alone. Threw well over 1000 rare greatswords in the mystic forge and have over 4000 hours played. And I’ve yet to see a single precursor.

rng = rng

most of the precrusor probably come from the mystic forge. If you throws thousands of stuff in, maybe you’ll get something back.

That being said, with those number of champ bag, you made enough money for 1 or 2 precursor.

I think more than anything, it showed precursor isn’t that difficult to get. Someone made enough money to buy 2 precursor in 20 days(playing like 10 hours a day).

Last night I was awarded “Spark” for killing a scaled drake in Sparkfly Fen. That’s my second precursor.

i got the “spear” the only 2 hours i farmed pavillion … after almost 6000 hours of account playtime.. although in reality lets say its 3000 hours since the game started..

the precursor was worth 80gold or something… i wish i didnt get anything .. maybe if i play another 3000 hours i have another shoot…

I was awarded Dusk when I put 1027g into trading post.
first precursor after 2 years of gameplay, if I don’t count Venom which I used for crafting Kraitkin and consequently selling for moneyz

“I’ve opened 75.000 champ bags from the pavilion alone.”

-0

I’m surprised you didn’t get any ascended box after all those chests

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

My first precursor drop was @700hrs from melandru

Then I got Hammer, Mace, LB, and dusk from mystic forge

I don’t see the problem. Sell what you got, buy your precursor.

I don’t see why this is worthy of creating a topic. Or do you expect someone to feel sorry for you and send you a precursor?

StinVec.3621:

Trice.4598:

StinVec.3621:

Trice.4598:

Charak.9761:

Champ bags don’t have precursors in them only unique exotics

they do, at a very very low rare, got a Chaos guns from a Gilded Coffer doing Arah P2.

That is a dungeon event chest, though, not a champion bag.

Gilded Coffer are champion “bag” http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Gilded_Coffer

Dang. I’m really not understanding all of these things with chests and bags with their names and what they are. To me a coffer is literally a chest or strongbox…not a bag.
Sorry. The misleading names they give these things messes with me as what they are strays from their actual definitions. Think I will just take my leave as I am not contributing anything more than confusion. My apologies.

A champion bag in Guild Wars 2 is any “container” that is dropped from a champion grade enemy or boss. They aren’t all labeled as bags, rather they all have different names to correlate to the different types of monsters they drop from (Gilded Coffers come from risen because coffer = coffin, Gear Boxes drop from Scarlet’s creatures, Seed Pouches from plant/sylvari monsters, shell pouches from aquatics, etc.). It is a way of justifying the loot with the lore I suppose.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Champion_loot_bag

Brother Grimm.5176:

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

For any chance greater than 0%, no matter how small, the more shots you take at it, the closer the chance to hit upon success at least once gets to 100%.

For example, if you take 5000 gambles at 1 in 1000 odds, the chance to win at least once is a little above 99%.

Seeing how long and how intensively people play this game without getting precursors, the drop chance for those kitten things must be incredibly small. Some might call it outrageous and I wouldn’t argue.

Manasa Devi.7958:

Brother Grimm.5176:

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

For any chance greater than 0%, no matter how small, the more shots you take at it, the closer the chance to hit upon success at least once gets to 100%.

For example, if you take 5000 gambles at 1 in 1000 odds, the chance to win at least once is a little above 99%.

Seeing how long and how intensively people play this game without getting precursors, the drop chance for those kitten things must be incredibly small. Some might call it outrageous and I wouldn’t argue.

If my math is correct, the actual chance is 99.3279% chance of winning at least once.

DarcShriek.5829:

Manasa Devi.7958:

Brother Grimm.5176:

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

For any chance greater than 0%, no matter how small, the more shots you take at it, the closer the chance to hit upon success at least once gets to 100%.

For example, if you take 5000 gambles at 1 in 1000 odds, the chance to win at least once is a little above 99%.

Seeing how long and how intensively people play this game without getting precursors, the drop chance for those kitten things must be incredibly small. Some might call it outrageous and I wouldn’t argue.

If my math is correct, the actual chance is 99.3279% chance of winning at least once.

You made a slight error – 1:1000 odds means 1 success to every 1000 errors (meaning you have a 1 in 1001 chance of winning – not 1 in 1000).

Assuming these are all Bernoulli trials, the probability is P(At least one success) = 1 – P(all failures) = 1 – (5000C0(1/1001)^0(1-1(1/1001))^5000) = 1 – (1)(1)(1-1(1/1001))^5000 = 1 – 0.00675 = 0.99325

ie. a 99.325% chance at having at least one success in 5000 chances, if the odds are 1:1000.

Manasa Devi.7958:

Brother Grimm.5176:

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

For any chance greater than 0%, no matter how small, the more shots you take at it, the closer the chance to hit upon success at least once gets to 100%.

For example, if you take 5000 gambles at 1 in 1000 odds, the chance to win at least once is a little above 99%.

Seeing how long and how intensively people play this game without getting precursors, the drop chance for those kitten things must be incredibly small. Some might call it outrageous and I wouldn’t argue.

You missed my point entirely. I was arguing that the length of time you play has NO bearing on the odds of a precursor ever dropping. I’ll give you the semantics argument over the term “outrageous”, but it’s a well known fact that precursors are a long shot as a drop, so certainly should not be surprising.

Brother Grimm.5176:

Manasa Devi.7958:

Brother Grimm.5176:

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

For any chance greater than 0%, no matter how small, the more shots you take at it, the closer the chance to hit upon success at least once gets to 100%.

For example, if you take 5000 gambles at 1 in 1000 odds, the chance to win at least once is a little above 99%.

Seeing how long and how intensively people play this game without getting precursors, the drop chance for those kitten things must be incredibly small. Some might call it outrageous and I wouldn’t argue.

You missed my point entirely. I was arguing that the length of time you play has NO bearing on the odds of a precursor ever dropping. I’ll give you the semantics argument over the term “outrageous”, but it’s a well known fact that precursors are a long shot as a drop, so certainly should not be surprising.

If you want to argue semantics, it should be completely obvious to anyone that the claim of having played for an x amount of hours comes with a very strong implication that the claimant has engaged in a reasonable amount of activities that generate drops. “Hours played” are a more convenient metric to present in an argument than “drops generated”, because one is tracked and the other isn’t. If your post had its roots in feigning ignorance of this, I’m glad I missed your point, because it was a worthless point.

I’m going with hidden account modifier’s on the loot rolls. It just feels like something the developers would do to “enhance” gems sales.

Mithyl.8620:

DarcShriek.5829:

Manasa Devi.7958:

Brother Grimm.5176:

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

For any chance greater than 0%, no matter how small, the more shots you take at it, the closer the chance to hit upon success at least once gets to 100%.

For example, if you take 5000 gambles at 1 in 1000 odds, the chance to win at least once is a little above 99%.

Seeing how long and how intensively people play this game without getting precursors, the drop chance for those kitten things must be incredibly small. Some might call it outrageous and I wouldn’t argue.

If my math is correct, the actual chance is 99.3279% chance of winning at least once.

You made a slight error – 1:1000 odds means 1 success to every 1000 errors (meaning you have a 1 in 1001 chance of winning – not 1 in 1000).

Assuming these are all Bernoulli trials, the probability is P(At least one success) = 1 – P(all failures) = 1 – (5000C0(1/1001)^0(1-1(1/1001))^5000) = 1 – (1)(1)(1-1(1/1001))^5000 = 1 – 0.00675 = 0.99325

ie. a 99.325% chance at having at least one success in 5000 chances, if the odds are 1:1000.

You would be right if he had said 1:1000, but he didn’t. He said 1 in 1000. Next time you try to one up me, please read more carefully.

DarcShriek.5829:

Mithyl.8620:

DarcShriek.5829:

Manasa Devi.7958:

Brother Grimm.5176:

Ztepam.9327:

It is outrageous to get closer to 5000 hrs played and receive non precursor.

Your number of hours played has no effect on RNG drops….just letting you know so you can re-evaluate what is and is not ‘outragous’.

For any chance greater than 0%, no matter how small, the more shots you take at it, the closer the chance to hit upon success at least once gets to 100%.

For example, if you take 5000 gambles at 1 in 1000 odds, the chance to win at least once is a little above 99%.

Seeing how long and how intensively people play this game without getting precursors, the drop chance for those kitten things must be incredibly small. Some might call it outrageous and I wouldn’t argue.

If my math is correct, the actual chance is 99.3279% chance of winning at least once.

You made a slight error – 1:1000 odds means 1 success to every 1000 errors (meaning you have a 1 in 1001 chance of winning – not 1 in 1000).

Assuming these are all Bernoulli trials, the probability is P(At least one success) = 1 – P(all failures) = 1 – (5000C0(1/1001)^0(1-1(1/1001))^5000) = 1 – (1)(1)(1-1(1/1001))^5000 = 1 – 0.00675 = 0.99325

ie. a 99.325% chance at having at least one success in 5000 chances, if the odds are 1:1000.

You would be right if he had said 1:1000, but he didn’t. He said 1 in 1000. Next time you try to one up me, please read more carefully.

Good point – upon re-reading, I think this is a case of ambiguous language. One should say a “1 in 1000 chance”, or “1 to 1000 odds.” To say odds implies a success to failure ratio, but to say “1 in 1000” means a .1% chance of success.

No need to feel threatened btw! We’re all friendly math people here. No one’s one-upping anyone, we’re both just looking for accuracy (which I feel is a safe assumption on my part – otherwise you wouldn’t have posted the exact answer when the prior post said “a little over 99%”) (: