Trait nerfs are justified when they attempt to shave an OP spec to be more inline with the norm of game play. However, what is happening here is not an attempt to accomplish this but an attempt to appease the GW2 community QQ. I am OK with the changes to Prismatic Understanding, although only adding Swiftness instead of Swiftness + Might to the potential boons gained might be a more reasonable approach to adjusting this trait and also stay true to its defensive flavor. However, the clone death changes are completely unjustified and will be very bad for Mesmer build diversity going forward. Below I will attempt to enumerate reasons why this is the case and invite those who think this is OK to refute these arguments.
1. The 4-4-6 Condi/PU build was never OP in the fist place.
a) This build has no viability in sPvP/tPvP.
b) As a WvW roamer this build is terrible at preventing small objective caps while waiting on reinforcements because of its reliance on stealth. Bunker Guardians and Warriors fulfill this role much more efficaciously.
c) In WvW small group play this build brings little to no group support and is usually a disadvantage to its team in even fights vs other group comps. I have had to shun players from our guild’s havoc team because they insisted on running this build. If you have teammates to watch your back, Shatter is a much stronger choice for the same reasons it is the dominant Mesmer build in sPvP/tPvP.
d) If wrecking new and or clueless players or simply being hard to pin down and kill constituted OPness then the whole of the Thief profession should probably just be wiped from the face of Tyria.
2. This is not only a nerf to Mesmer condition damage output, but a nerf to the Mesmer’s available defensive options which is unwarranted and will hinder build diversity.
a) Regardless of build, a Mesmer is reliant on clone/phantasm generation for both defense and damage. Having access to a suite of traits that punish AE spam and wanton killing of clones makes it more likely that we will actually be able to do damage by making our clones punishing to attack or be able to buy time to regenerate our damage base by covering ourselves with defensive conditions (cripple, weakness, lower attack spam through confusion.) I also play Ele and can tell you right now that Burning Speed is going to trivialize a number of fights that required some use of tactics before. Thieves, an already difficult match for Mesmer, will also be able to CnD and destroy clones with little to no punishment.
b) This reduction in defensive potential will push more players into Prismatic Understanding. I think this is pretty self explanatory, but there are non condition/PU builds out there that can pick up these traits for a bit of extra defense, making these traits so that they can be dodged, blocked and blinded will greatly reduce their effectiveness and this loss will have to be made up somewhere. Our only remaining strong defensive trait is PU. This is a whack-a-mole nerf that will actually increase the prevalence of 4-4-6 Condi/PU as other builds are made less viable.
Conclusions: Overall this is an extremely bad trade off for Mesmer game play. Post patch we will be stuck with a bad scepter auto attack and less build diversity than before. 4-4-6 Condition/PU will still play largely like it has played before, but other potential builds will be hit hard. The IE fix will not effect most clone death builds because they do not have the available trait points to pick up both IE and all the clone death traits; thus, if a condition build wants IE+clone death it will have to give up PU already greatly lowering its defense.
This leaves us with the scepter changes to consider. If the devs feel that the scepter changes will push current condition/PU builds into the realm of OPness, the responsible course of action would be to delay the implementation of scepter changes in lieu of prenerfing a whole suite of Mesmer traits. Scepter needs QoL and auto attack improvements, but the current design decisions are bad an unimaginative all around. It would be much better to wait for well designed scepter changes than to have the current proposal shoved down our throats.