Guild Wars 2

Maladon.5760:

The problem isn’t the first week of matchups. The problem will be a few weeks down the line when higher ranked servers have been bled of ratings points by being matched up with lower ranked servers. At that point it’s very possible for really ugly matches to occur.

That’s a very great point! As we all know, if a high ranked server faces a low ranked server, they will almost for sure lose ratings points, even if they win. The lower ranked team as well will probably GAIN points. This will effectively balance out the rating points, while the servers will still have the same population balance, and the rankings will probably stay fairly static, just the difference between the ranks in rating points will decrease. This means down the line there will be a much larger chance of blow out matches, unless they drastically decrease the rank for random numbers, or change the way the matches are scored.

I’m not a math whiz, so I could be off on this, but here’s how I understand the glicko2 system. It’s a closed system in that there are a finite number of rataings points to be distributed. All servers started out even and were tested against eachother to form the matchups we currently see. This is the deficiency of the system as well though, because for a server to advance they have to take points from somewhere. When faced with the same servers over and over and over, they can only come from one place.

That’s why new (“illegal” in this systems terms) points had to be added to artificially resolve the locked matchup in T8 NA, because insufficient points could ever be gained by any server to actually move out of the match. Similar cases happen in other tiers, but can eventually even themselves out over time because one server can completely give up and over the course of several weeks be overtaken by a server in another tier… also not a very acceptable option.

The points being ‘hemoraged’ from the top tiers in case of not winning by enough are not necessarily a bad thing then, because points have to come from somewhere to bridge the gaps and provide accurate representation to the servers that have been skewed and locked into inaccurate rating brackets by the current system.

I think for people to get their heads around this new system we all have to stop talking about tiers though, because as of May 31st tiers cease to exist. WvW then becomes a laddered battle between #1 and everyone else in a system – something that glicko might actually be able to support accurately.

As the stats above show, the chances of those top tier servers facing uneven matches aren’t that high anyways. They are most likely to keep facing similar opponents with the occasional server that is in over their heads. In those instances, if they dominate as they are supposed to, then the ratings will stay roughly the same… even if they lose a few points it will make no difference in the grand scheme of things.

Yes Khayoss, the evening of the ratings would normally be a good thing. HOWEVER, since the new match up system can do randomly, within say, 200 rating points, the closer the servers are in the rating, the much higher of a chance of a total blow out, and no one likes those. So, servers with drastically different populations will be closer in rating, meaning they can more often be matched together. The tiers will “still” exist, in some sense, matches just won’t be strictly in those tiers. The statistics you mentioned assume the CURRENT rating distribution. If the ratings get more even, which is what the devs hope for, then it will most likely become MORE probably for blow out matches, not less likely. However, NO dev has yet showed any reliable data to show to people what they actually expect, and to prove to us that they have actually thought this out. They show us the example on the press release, then tell us “But that example is totally worthless and not what we’re expecting. But, we won’t show you that, since you know, that’d be too overtly helpful!”

@Handin Look at: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/pvp/wuvwuv/Statistics-of-the-new-ranking-system/2082624

Dayra.7405:

@Handin Look at: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/pvp/wuvwuv/Statistics-of-the-new-ranking-system/2082624

I’ve seen it, its my thread :P what about it? If you’re talking about them saying that if the matches are still unstable, then they’ll reduce the range, then they should start with the reduced range FIRST. Knowing them, they’ll take several blow out matches to figure out their range is too high, which could kill a server WvW population easily. They should start with the smaller range, and if the matches are still too stagnant, then they should increase it. Not wait to see how bad it is, then fix it.

“If at that point our simulation is still generating bad match-ups we can absolutely look at lowering the range.”

So if the server come closer in rating, this can and likely will be countered lowering the range.

When Glicko-2 will actually work after a while the current artificial distances between ratings based on the tier boundaries will be replaced by a distance that is based on performance in the matches. An adequate range should therefore have it easier than currently to avoid blow-outs.

Currently they cannot use a reduced range, the range MUST go over match boundaries to recover from the current situation. (After 9 month of moving up rating points from bottom to the top, all match boundaries are nearly impassable far away.)

Dayra.7405:

“If at that point our simulation is still generating bad match-ups we can absolutely look at lowering the range.”

So if the server come closer in rating, this can and likely will be countered lowering the range.

When Glicko-2 will actually work after a while the current artificial distances between ratings based on the tier boundaries will be replaced by a distance that is based on performance in the matches. An adequate range should therefore have it easier than currently to avoid blow-outs

Yup, read what I posted there. I have stated several times that the servers will take several match ups for this to happen. In the mean time, if they have too many bad matches, it will do more harm than good. They should start with a small range, then go larger. That will allow non-stagnant matches, allow the ratings to even out, but not have too many bad matches.

NA-T4 and T5 are stuck with imbalanced matches now since 2 month.

With these new system you have the same chance to get a weaker opponent, than you have to get a stronger opponent.

Being trapped in an imbalanced match enforces blowouts, not have one from time to time.

Another point is, you do not care much about a server being rated much higher is crushung you. Assume SI has to fight 2 difficult server, where as CD get to easier one. My expectation is: both will be much more interested how they perform in relation to each other than how they score in their match. If SI can get rating with 80k score, whereas CD looses rating winning with 220k, SI may be happier loosing than CD winning

Dayra.7405:

NA-T4 and T5 are stuck with imbalanced matches now since 2 month.

With these new system you have the same chance to get a weaker opponent, than you have to get a stronger opponent.

Being trapped in an imbalanced match enforces blowouts, not have one from time to time.

But with the current statistics, in fact, theres a smaller chance of you getting a match “in tier”, than out. You’re right, a T4 server could equal probability of facing a T3 or T5 server, as well as a T2 or T6 server. So, the T4 server might finally get to have a win, but what about the other server? Or, how would the T4 server feel if they went against a T2 server? It might be a different person server, but it probably won’t be much happier for them. The current statistics make it acutally fairly likely for a match up to be a blow out, its just whether or not you’re the server dominating, or being dominated. Their new method actually, statistically, CAN work out well, with a better range ~-0.5->0.5. This would ensure that you can still fight outside your tier still.

You’re statement that "With these new system you have the same chance to get a weaker opponent, than you have to get a stronger opponent. " forgets one important thing: what about the weaker server? If people are concerned with blow outs, they have to look at the matches as a WHOLE, not just “what will my server get.” Yes, your server might be a lucky one, and be rank 8 and face a rank 12 server. SO, what about the rank 12 server? The matches must be looked at as a whole to determine the fairness, especially when using the glicko server. It would be drastically unfair for a rank 4 server to face a rank 8, by pure chance, and lose enough rating to drop to rank 5, even if they win. This however, is a possibility under the new system, with the current parameters. I repeat this again, a server should NEVER be punished, especially not be losing a rank, etc, for winning and doing well, ESPECIALLY when the matches are purely random, and out of their control. If they tweak their parameters, it should allow that the tiers already in constant blow outs face new people, but also make it so that the matches are still somewhat balanced (3rd place T4 verse 1st or 2nd place T5).

We are now rank 1 since friday. We were stuck in T2 for 10 weeks, having crushed always the same other servers there for 10 weeks, till we finally managed to bridge the large boarder.
Just to have crushed T1 now two times. The old system was broken by design. Anything else will be better.

All servers will have the highest chance of getting similar rated servers, and the same change to get a weaker or a stronger, except the last 2, they are always crushed in EU no difference which server you place there as the third.

Dayra.7405:

We are now rank 1 since friday. We were stuck in T2 for 10 weeks, having crushed always the same other servers there for 10 weeks, till we finally managed to bridge the large boarder.
Just to have crushed T1 now two times. The old system was broken by design. Anything else will be better.

All servers will have the highest chance of getting similar rated servers, and the same change to get a weaker or a stronger, except the last 2, they are always crushed in EU no difference which server you place there as the third.

Actually, with the current parameters, there is a higher chance for a match to have a 3 rank different than a 2. In fact, a match up like there is now, with a rank different of 2 is only ~20%. That’s why I’ve been trying to point out. The new method CAN be better, IF they tweak the random number range. With the current system, it is more likely to have matches with a rank 1 vs a rank 4 than a rank 1 vs a rank 3. You’re right, the new system is definitely broken, and I’ve been part of many times where TC has jumped up a tier. It takes lots of work, and most of the time it relies on a server from above to fall apart in some way. It should be set so that a rank 4 server and rank 3 can swap places on times, not that a rank 1 and rank 4 should swap. While the rank 4 server might do well in the “higher” match up, the teams facing the rank 1 might not fare as well.

Look at it like this. SoR currently has the most rank points. We will probably end up facing other servers than BG or JQ and already currently blowing them out would just maintain our points.

Now facing these other opponents will surely decrease our points wether we destroy our competition or not.

End results of this is good for rebalancing the ladder and making server shifts possible, but there are many negative aspects to this too.

For instance, the server can unwillingly and uncontrollably lose rank event though they should be above another server (im talking about all servers here).
But even worse, the loss of points for top servers and gain in points for lower servers making even odder match-ups. I’d hate to have +500 constant ppt just because we were matched up to much weaker servers, and those weaker servers will not enjoy the blowout either.

“The will reduce the range after” means that chances are that with time ratings will again stabilize as the number of potential opponents will drop and rating points will keep flowing up the ranks at a certain rate because they will try to eliminate the annoying and unfair blowouts.

The normalisation of the points is only a temporary fix to bring things back together, they need to fix their whole rating system, because its not the “tiers” that are broken, but the scoring system at it’s roots.

Here are the probabilities of various matchups for EU, based on current ratings and deviations taken from the leader boards.

Elona Reach [DE]
76.600971 Vizunah Square [FR]
33.170675 Jade Sea [FR]
31.992967 Desolation
24.170512 Seafarer’s Rest
15.190431 Kodash [DE]
7.936970 Piken Square
4.322654 Baruch Bay [SP]
3.623412 Augury Rock [FR]
1.908951 Riverside [DE]
0.850733 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
0.105750 Gandara
0.048257 Aurora Glade
0.041000 Miller’s Sound [DE]
0.033085 Far Shiverpeaks
0.003312 Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.000193 Fort Ranik [FR]
0.000126 Underworld
0.000002 Ruins of Surmia
0.000000 Gunnar’s Hold
0.000000 Dzagonur [DE]
0.000000 Ring of Fire
0.000000 Whiteside Ridge
0.000000 Arborstone [FR]
0.000000 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Vizunah Square [FR]
76.600971 Elona Reach [DE]
31.009762 Jade Sea [FR]
29.883074 Desolation
22.951966 Seafarer’s Rest
15.114802 Kodash [DE]
8.789370 Piken Square
5.513450 Baruch Bay [SP]
4.848825 Augury Rock [FR]
3.078897 Riverside [DE]
1.637886 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
0.246303 Gandara
0.120538 Aurora Glade
0.104105 Miller’s Sound [DE]
0.085823 Far Shiverpeaks
0.012137 Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.001243 Fort Ranik [FR]
0.000838 Underworld
0.000011 Ruins of Surmia
0.000000 Gunnar’s Hold
0.000000 Dzagonur [DE]
0.000000 Ring of Fire
0.000000 Whiteside Ridge
0.000000 Arborstone [FR]
0.000000 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Jade Sea [FR]
33.170675 Elona Reach [DE]
31.009762 Vizunah Square [FR]
19.881507 Desolation
20.005427 Seafarer’s Rest
18.482053 Kodash [DE]
15.802867 Piken Square
13.493021 Baruch Bay [SP]
12.899646 Augury Rock [FR]
10.921596 Riverside [DE]
8.679881 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
4.354958 Gandara
3.344826 Aurora Glade
3.166300 Miller’s Sound [DE]
2.942576 Far Shiverpeaks
1.261928 Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.315165 Fort Ranik [FR]
0.244452 Underworld
0.020016 Ruins of Surmia
0.002263 Gunnar’s Hold
0.001032 Dzagonur [DE]
0.000049 Ring of Fire
0.000000 Whiteside Ridge
0.000000 Arborstone [FR]
0.000001 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Desolation
31.992967 Elona Reach [DE]
29.883074 Vizunah Square [FR]
19.881507 Jade Sea [FR]
19.615719 Seafarer’s Rest
18.216223 Kodash [DE]
15.672650 Piken Square
13.479803 Baruch Bay [SP]
12.917557 Augury Rock [FR]
11.044025 Riverside [DE]
8.920431 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
4.796993 Gandara
3.821295 Aurora Glade
3.647182 Miller’s Sound [DE]
3.427006 Far Shiverpeaks
1.713162 Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.516525 Fort Ranik [FR]
0.408147 Underworld
0.038158 Ruins of Surmia
0.004978 Gunnar’s Hold
0.002449 Dzagonur [DE]
0.000146 Ring of Fire
0.000000 Whiteside Ridge
0.000000 Arborstone [FR]
0.000002 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Seafarer’s Rest
24.170512 Elona Reach [DE]
22.951966 Vizunah Square [FR]
20.005427 Jade Sea [FR]
19.615719 Desolation
19.744726 Kodash [DE]
17.328281 Piken Square
15.062761 Baruch Bay [SP]
14.469636 Augury Rock [FR]
12.478009 Riverside [DE]
10.220702 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
5.850090 Gandara
4.810189 Aurora Glade
4.622623 Miller’s Sound [DE]
4.385068 Far Shiverpeaks
2.487481 Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.937788 Fort Ranik [FR]
0.757363 Underworld
0.082084 Ruins of Surmia
0.012541 Gunnar’s Hold
0.006570 Dzagonur [DE]
0.000454 Ring of Fire
0.000003 Whiteside Ridge
0.000001 Arborstone [FR]
0.000008 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Kodash [DE]
15.190431 Elona Reach [DE]
15.114802 Vizunah Square [FR]
18.482053 Jade Sea [FR]
18.216223 Desolation
19.744726 Seafarer’s Rest
18.482492 Piken Square
16.547493 Baruch Bay [SP]
16.012865 Augury Rock [FR]
14.157355 Riverside [DE]
11.994866 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
7.697960 Gandara
6.656868 Aurora Glade
6.467544 Miller’s Sound [DE]
6.222002 Far Shiverpeaks
4.221468 Drakkar Lake [DE]
2.293951 Fort Ranik [FR]
2.013597 Underworld
0.359895 Ruins of Surmia
0.075594 Gunnar’s Hold
0.043460 Dzagonur [DE]
0.004023 Ring of Fire
0.000104 Whiteside Ridge
0.000050 Arborstone [FR]
0.000178 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Piken Square
7.936970 Elona Reach [DE]
8.789370 Vizunah Square [FR]
15.802867 Jade Sea [FR]
15.672650 Desolation
17.328281 Seafarer’s Rest
18.482492 Kodash [DE]
17.552604 Baruch Bay [SP]
17.185772 Augury Rock [FR]
15.749365 Riverside [DE]
13.874809 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
9.781392 Gandara
8.750990 Aurora Glade
8.560615 Miller’s Sound [DE]
8.310741 Far Shiverpeaks
6.267280 Drakkar Lake [DE]
4.174733 Fort Ranik [FR]
3.849035 Underworld
1.301845 Ruins of Surmia
0.366492 Gunnar’s Hold
0.227328 Dzagonur [DE]
0.029736 Ring of Fire
0.001523 Whiteside Ridge
0.000744 Arborstone [FR]
0.002365 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Baruch Bay [SP]
4.322654 Elona Reach [DE]
5.513450 Vizunah Square [FR]
13.493021 Jade Sea [FR]
13.479803 Desolation
15.062761 Seafarer’s Rest
16.547493 Kodash [DE]
17.552604 Piken Square
17.405809 Augury Rock [FR]
16.564045 Riverside [DE]
15.110905 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
11.338307 Gandara
10.333995 Aurora Glade
10.146068 Miller’s Sound [DE]
9.896719 Far Shiverpeaks
7.857049 Drakkar Lake [DE]
5.725856 Fort Ranik [FR]
5.388967 Underworld
2.488644 Ruins of Surmia
0.986308 Gunnar’s Hold
0.652895 Dzagonur [DE]
0.110888 Ring of Fire
0.007234 Whiteside Ridge
0.003562 Arborstone [FR]
0.010963 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Augury Rock [FR]
3.623412 Elona Reach [DE]
4.848825 Vizunah Square [FR]
12.899646 Jade Sea [FR]
12.917557 Desolation
14.469636 Seafarer’s Rest
16.012865 Kodash [DE]
17.185772 Piken Square
17.405809 Baruch Bay [SP]
16.697373 Riverside [DE]
15.388637 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
11.730393 Gandara
10.735078 Aurora Glade
10.548720 Miller’s Sound [DE]
10.299408 Far Shiverpeaks
8.264543 Drakkar Lake [DE]
6.127644 Fort Ranik [FR]
5.788546 Underworld
2.825422 Ruins of Surmia
1.220551 Gunnar’s Hold
0.829733 Dzagonur [DE]
0.149715 Ring of Fire
0.010211 Whiteside Ridge
0.005076 Arborstone [FR]
0.015432 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Riverside [DE]
1.908951 Elona Reach [DE]
3.078897 Vizunah Square [FR]
10.921596 Jade Sea [FR]
11.044025 Desolation
12.478009 Seafarer’s Rest
14.157355 Kodash [DE]
15.749365 Piken Square
16.564045 Baruch Bay [SP]
16.697373 Augury Rock [FR]
16.120186 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
13.008765 Gandara
12.066388 Aurora Glade
11.885590 Miller’s Sound [DE]
11.642163 Far Shiverpeaks
9.642996 Drakkar Lake [DE]
7.502639 Fort Ranik [FR]
7.160877 Underworld
4.039853 Ruins of Surmia
2.196105 Gunnar’s Hold
1.663660 Dzagonur [DE]
0.378891 Ring of Fire
0.031075 Whiteside Ridge
0.016463 Arborstone [FR]
0.044733 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
0.850733 Elona Reach [DE]
1.637886 Vizunah Square [FR]
8.679881 Jade Sea [FR]
8.920431 Desolation
10.220702 Seafarer’s Rest
11.994866 Kodash [DE]
13.874809 Piken Square
15.110905 Baruch Bay [SP]
15.388637 Augury Rock [FR]
16.120186 Riverside [DE]
14.373896 Gandara
13.559412 Aurora Glade
13.396669 Miller’s Sound [DE]
13.171732 Far Shiverpeaks
11.278063 Drakkar Lake [DE]
9.163558 Fort Ranik [FR]
8.823014 Underworld
5.581761 Ruins of Surmia
3.604612 Gunnar’s Hold
2.981191 Dzagonur [DE]
0.964319 Ring of Fire
0.104262 Whiteside Ridge
0.060985 Arborstone [FR]
0.137489 Blacktide
0.000000 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Gandara
0.105750 Elona Reach [DE]
0.246303 Vizunah Square [FR]
4.354958 Jade Sea [FR]
4.796993 Desolation
5.850090 Seafarer’s Rest
7.697960 Kodash [DE]
9.781392 Piken Square
11.338307 Baruch Bay [SP]
11.730393 Augury Rock [FR]
13.008765 Riverside [DE]
14.373896 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
15.978242 Aurora Glade
15.930263 Miller’s Sound [DE]
15.838777 Far Shiverpeaks
14.679110 Drakkar Lake [DE]
12.818782 Fort Ranik [FR]
12.496104 Underworld
9.127331 Ruins of Surmia
7.119912 Gunnar’s Hold
6.449284 Dzagonur [DE]
3.629064 Ring of Fire
0.952573 Whiteside Ridge
0.649200 Arborstone [FR]
1.046549 Blacktide
0.000002 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Aurora Glade
0.048257 Elona Reach [DE]
0.120538 Vizunah Square [FR]
3.344826 Jade Sea [FR]
3.821295 Desolation
4.810189 Seafarer’s Rest
6.656868 Kodash [DE]
8.750990 Piken Square
10.333995 Baruch Bay [SP]
10.735078 Augury Rock [FR]
12.066388 Riverside [DE]
13.559412 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
15.978242 Gandara
16.238649 Miller’s Sound [DE]
16.220055 Far Shiverpeaks
15.478204 Drakkar Lake [DE]
13.796088 Fort Ranik [FR]
13.487761 Underworld
10.136848 Ruins of Surmia
8.153703 Gunnar’s Hold
7.488177 Dzagonur [DE]
4.571339 Ring of Fire
1.538236 Whiteside Ridge
1.084879 Arborstone [FR]
1.579975 Blacktide
0.000008 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Miller’s Sound [DE]
0.041000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.104105 Vizunah Square [FR]
3.166300 Jade Sea [FR]
3.647182 Desolation
4.622623 Seafarer’s Rest
6.467544 Kodash [DE]
8.560615 Piken Square
10.146068 Baruch Bay [SP]
10.548720 Augury Rock [FR]
11.885590 Riverside [DE]
13.396669 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
15.930263 Gandara
16.238649 Aurora Glade
16.257821 Far Shiverpeaks
15.613192 Drakkar Lake [DE]
13.977933 Fort Ranik [FR]
13.673579 Underworld
10.334953 Ruins of Surmia
8.359319 Gunnar’s Hold
7.695490 Dzagonur [DE]
4.764554 Ring of Fire
1.675353 Whiteside Ridge
1.194160 Arborstone [FR]
1.698311 Blacktide
0.000009 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Far Shiverpeaks
0.033085 Elona Reach [DE]
0.085823 Vizunah Square [FR]
2.942576 Jade Sea [FR]
3.427006 Desolation
4.385068 Seafarer’s Rest
6.222002 Kodash [DE]
8.310741 Piken Square
9.896719 Baruch Bay [SP]
10.299408 Augury Rock [FR]
11.642163 Riverside [DE]
13.171732 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
15.838777 Gandara
16.220055 Aurora Glade
16.257821 Miller’s Sound [DE]
15.774950 Drakkar Lake [DE]
14.211846 Fort Ranik [FR]
13.913659 Underworld
10.601049 Ruins of Surmia
8.639919 Gunnar’s Hold
7.981088 Dzagonur [DE]
5.036305 Ring of Fire
1.877792 Whiteside Ridge
1.360251 Arborstone [FR]
1.870152 Blacktide
0.000013 Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Vabbi

Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.003312 Elona Reach [DE]
0.012137 Vizunah Square [FR]
1.261928 Jade Sea [FR]
1.713162 Desolation
2.487481 Seafarer’s Rest
4.221468 Kodash [DE]
6.267280 Piken Square
7.857049 Baruch Bay [SP]
8.264543 Augury Rock [FR]
9.642996 Riverside [DE]
11.278063 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
14.679110 Gandara
15.478204 Aurora Glade
15.613192 Miller’s Sound [DE]
15.774950 Far Shiverpeaks
16.184563 Fort Ranik [FR]
15.982353 Underworld
13.061894 Ruins of Surmia
11.236264 Gunnar’s Hold
10.609560 Dzagonur [DE]
7.561159 Ring of Fire
3.995552 Whiteside Ridge
3.231218 Arborstone [FR]
3.581707 Blacktide
0.000477 Fissure of Woe
0.000379 Vabbi

Fort Ranik [FR]
0.000193 Elona Reach [DE]
0.001243 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.315165 Jade Sea [FR]
0.516525 Desolation
0.937788 Seafarer’s Rest
2.293951 Kodash [DE]
4.174733 Piken Square
5.725856 Baruch Bay [SP]
6.127644 Augury Rock [FR]
7.502639 Riverside [DE]
9.163558 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
12.818782 Gandara
13.796088 Aurora Glade
13.977933 Miller’s Sound [DE]
14.211846 Far Shiverpeaks
16.184563 Drakkar Lake [DE]
17.537533 Underworld
15.889003 Ruins of Surmia
14.405264 Gunnar’s Hold
13.855093 Dzagonur [DE]
10.867004 Ring of Fire
7.266603 Whiteside Ridge
6.332819 Arborstone [FR]
6.073687 Blacktide
0.012476 Fissure of Woe
0.012014 Vabbi

Underworld
0.000126 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000838 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.244452 Jade Sea [FR]
0.408147 Desolation
0.757363 Seafarer’s Rest
2.013597 Kodash [DE]
3.849035 Piken Square
5.388967 Baruch Bay [SP]
5.788546 Augury Rock [FR]
7.160877 Riverside [DE]
8.823014 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
12.496104 Gandara
13.487761 Aurora Glade
13.673579 Miller’s Sound [DE]
13.913659 Far Shiverpeaks
15.982353 Drakkar Lake [DE]
17.537533 Fort Ranik [FR]
16.324994 Ruins of Surmia
14.928771 Gunnar’s Hold
14.398141 Dzagonur [DE]
11.446604 Ring of Fire
7.880943 Whiteside Ridge
6.927101 Arborstone [FR]
6.530281 Blacktide
0.018890 Fissure of Woe
0.018324 Vabbi

Ruins of Surmia
0.000002 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000011 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.020016 Jade Sea [FR]
0.038158 Desolation
0.082084 Seafarer’s Rest
0.359895 Kodash [DE]
1.301845 Piken Square
2.488644 Baruch Bay [SP]
2.825422 Augury Rock [FR]
4.039853 Riverside [DE]
5.581761 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
9.127331 Gandara
10.136848 Aurora Glade
10.334953 Miller’s Sound [DE]
10.601049 Far Shiverpeaks
13.061894 Drakkar Lake [DE]
15.889003 Fort Ranik [FR]
16.324994 Underworld
19.429915 Gunnar’s Hold
19.256802 Dzagonur [DE]
17.450892 Ring of Fire
15.051339 Whiteside Ridge
13.999683 Arborstone [FR]
11.674067 Blacktide
0.463045 Fissure of Woe
0.460493 Vabbi

Gunnar’s Hold
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.002263 Jade Sea [FR]
0.004978 Desolation
0.012541 Seafarer’s Rest
0.075594 Kodash [DE]
0.366492 Piken Square
0.986308 Baruch Bay [SP]
1.220551 Augury Rock [FR]
2.196105 Riverside [DE]
3.604612 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
7.119912 Gandara
8.153703 Aurora Glade
8.359319 Miller’s Sound [DE]
8.639919 Far Shiverpeaks
11.236264 Drakkar Lake [DE]
14.405264 Fort Ranik [FR]
14.928771 Underworld
19.429915 Ruins of Surmia
21.482989 Dzagonur [DE]
21.123869 Ring of Fire
19.859478 Whiteside Ridge
18.727838 Arborstone [FR]
14.985013 Blacktide
1.541344 Fissure of Woe
1.536958 Vabbi

Dzagonur [DE]
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.001032 Jade Sea [FR]
0.002449 Desolation
0.006570 Seafarer’s Rest
0.043460 Kodash [DE]
0.227328 Piken Square
0.652895 Baruch Bay [SP]
0.829733 Augury Rock [FR]
1.663660 Riverside [DE]
2.981191 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
6.449284 Gandara
7.488177 Aurora Glade
7.695490 Miller’s Sound [DE]
7.981088 Far Shiverpeaks
10.609560 Drakkar Lake [DE]
13.855093 Fort Ranik [FR]
14.398141 Underworld
19.256802 Ruins of Surmia
21.482989 Gunnar’s Hold
22.283603 Ring of Fire
21.479805 Whiteside Ridge
20.308653 Arborstone [FR]
16.066876 Blacktide
2.120593 Fissure of Woe
2.115527 Vabbi

Ring of Fire
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.000049 Jade Sea [FR]
0.000146 Desolation
0.000454 Seafarer’s Rest
0.004023 Kodash [DE]
0.029736 Piken Square
0.110888 Baruch Bay [SP]
0.149715 Augury Rock [FR]
0.378891 Riverside [DE]
0.964319 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
3.629064 Gandara
4.571339 Aurora Glade
4.764554 Miller’s Sound [DE]
5.036305 Far Shiverpeaks
7.561159 Drakkar Lake [DE]
10.867004 Fort Ranik [FR]
11.446604 Underworld
17.450892 Ruins of Surmia
21.123869 Gunnar’s Hold
22.283603 Dzagonur [DE]
28.198399 Whiteside Ridge
26.682413 Arborstone [FR]
20.010315 Blacktide
7.372362 Fissure of Woe
7.363896 Vabbi

Whiteside Ridge
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.000000 Jade Sea [FR]
0.000000 Desolation
0.000003 Seafarer’s Rest
0.000104 Kodash [DE]
0.001523 Piken Square
0.007234 Baruch Bay [SP]
0.010211 Augury Rock [FR]
0.031075 Riverside [DE]
0.104262 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
0.952573 Gandara
1.538236 Aurora Glade
1.675353 Miller’s Sound [DE]
1.877792 Far Shiverpeaks
3.995552 Drakkar Lake [DE]
7.266603 Fort Ranik [FR]
7.880943 Underworld
15.051339 Ruins of Surmia
19.859478 Gunnar’s Hold
21.479805 Dzagonur [DE]
28.198399 Ring of Fire
28.320054 Arborstone [FR]
18.971115 Blacktide
21.395325 Fissure of Woe
21.383022 Vabbi

Arborstone [FR]
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.000000 Jade Sea [FR]
0.000000 Desolation
0.000001 Seafarer’s Rest
0.000050 Kodash [DE]
0.000744 Piken Square
0.003562 Baruch Bay [SP]
0.005076 Augury Rock [FR]
0.016463 Riverside [DE]
0.060985 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
0.649200 Gandara
1.084879 Aurora Glade
1.194160 Miller’s Sound [DE]
1.360251 Far Shiverpeaks
3.231218 Drakkar Lake [DE]
6.332819 Fort Ranik [FR]
6.927101 Underworld
13.999683 Ruins of Surmia
18.727838 Gunnar’s Hold
20.308653 Dzagonur [DE]
26.682413 Ring of Fire
28.320054 Whiteside Ridge
16.288431 Blacktide
27.394727 Fissure of Woe
27.411693 Vabbi

Blacktide
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.000001 Jade Sea [FR]
0.000002 Desolation
0.000008 Seafarer’s Rest
0.000178 Kodash [DE]
0.002365 Piken Square
0.010963 Baruch Bay [SP]
0.015432 Augury Rock [FR]
0.044733 Riverside [DE]
0.137489 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
1.046549 Gandara
1.579975 Aurora Glade
1.698311 Miller’s Sound [DE]
1.870152 Far Shiverpeaks
3.581707 Drakkar Lake [DE]
6.073687 Fort Ranik [FR]
6.530281 Underworld
11.674067 Ruins of Surmia
14.985013 Gunnar’s Hold
16.066876 Dzagonur [DE]
20.010315 Ring of Fire
18.971115 Whiteside Ridge
16.288431 Arborstone [FR]
39.697694 Fissure of Woe
39.714660 Vabbi

Fissure of Woe
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.000000 Jade Sea [FR]
0.000000 Desolation
0.000000 Seafarer’s Rest
0.000000 Kodash [DE]
0.000000 Piken Square
0.000000 Baruch Bay [SP]
0.000000 Augury Rock [FR]
0.000000 Riverside [DE]
0.000000 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
0.000002 Gandara
0.000008 Aurora Glade
0.000009 Miller’s Sound [DE]
0.000013 Far Shiverpeaks
0.000477 Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.012476 Fort Ranik [FR]
0.018890 Underworld
0.463045 Ruins of Surmia
1.541344 Gunnar’s Hold
2.120593 Dzagonur [DE]
7.372362 Ring of Fire
21.395325 Whiteside Ridge
27.394727 Arborstone [FR]
39.697694 Blacktide
99.983034 Vabbi

Vabbi
0.000000 Elona Reach [DE]
0.000000 Vizunah Square [FR]
0.000000 Jade Sea [FR]
0.000000 Desolation
0.000000 Seafarer’s Rest
0.000000 Kodash [DE]
0.000000 Piken Square
0.000000 Baruch Bay [SP]
0.000000 Augury Rock [FR]
0.000000 Riverside [DE]
0.000000 Abaddon’s Mouth [DE]
0.000000 Gandara
0.000000 Aurora Glade
0.000000 Miller’s Sound [DE]
0.000000 Far Shiverpeaks
0.000379 Drakkar Lake [DE]
0.012014 Fort Ranik [FR]
0.018324 Underworld
0.460493 Ruins of Surmia
1.536958 Gunnar’s Hold
2.115527 Dzagonur [DE]
7.363896 Ring of Fire
21.383022 Whiteside Ridge
27.411693 Arborstone [FR]
39.714660 Blacktide
99.983034 Fissure of Woe

Mystery.7392:

What will happen with Vabbi [27th]? They are like 600 points behind the 25th rank.

so, based on the numbers, Vabbi and Fissure of Woe are almost guaranteed to be matched with each other. the third server in the matchup is more of a tossup, but Blacktide, Arborstone and Whiteside Ridge are likely. Ring of Fire and Dzagonur are less likely.

-ken

Handin.4032:

But with the current statistics, in fact, theres a smaller chance of you getting a match “in tier”, than out. You’re right, a T4 server could equal probability of facing a T3 or T5 server, as well as a T2 or T6 server. So, the T4 server might finally get to have a win, but what about the other server? Or, how would the T4 server feel if they went against a T2 server? It might be a different person server, but it probably won’t be much happier for them. The current statistics make it acutally fairly likely for a match up to be a blow out, its just whether or not you’re the server dominating, or being dominated. Their new method actually, statistically, CAN work out well, with a better range ~-0.5->0.5. This would ensure that you can still fight outside your tier still.

You’re statement that "With these new system you have the same chance to get a weaker opponent, than you have to get a stronger opponent. " forgets one important thing: what about the weaker server? If people are concerned with blow outs, they have to look at the matches as a WHOLE, not just “what will my server get.” Yes, your server might be a lucky one, and be rank 8 and face a rank 12 server. SO, what about the rank 12 server? The matches must be looked at as a whole to determine the fairness, especially when using the glicko server. It would be drastically unfair for a rank 4 server to face a rank 8, by pure chance, and lose enough rating to drop to rank 5, even if they win. This however, is a possibility under the new system, with the current parameters. I repeat this again, a server should NEVER be punished, especially not be losing a rank, etc, for winning and doing well, ESPECIALLY when the matches are purely random, and out of their control. If they tweak their parameters, it should allow that the tiers already in constant blow outs face new people, but also make it so that the matches are still somewhat balanced (3rd place T4 verse 1st or 2nd place T5).

Two things. First, your argument appears to assume that the current rankings are correct, which I strongly disagree with. Ehmry Bay, according to the current rankings, is and has been for 3 months a “Tier 5” server. The 14th and 15th place servers combined cannot compete directly against us and the matches are all extremely lopsided, and while we win every week, we’ve been trying to close a near 200 point gap by facing the same servers over and over again which is practically impossible to do. I wondered often if either of the T6 would be closer than our current opponents? Old system, we’ve never been able to find out…

I wouldn’t be so arrogant as to proclaim victory against any T4 server we may face, but to say that they would walk on us just because the system says we are a tier below them is wrong because the ratings produced by this system are wrong. Because of this, and other cases similar to ours, I wonder just how many servers are far better and far worse than their current rank dictates.

Second, I can speak for the potentially weaker server that we relish the chance to be the one having it’s doors blown off by a “tier 3” server should the perfect storm of random numbers line up. For 3 months we’ve wanted to have another shot at Yaks Bend. They may be tier 3, but we feel like we are closer to them than we ever were before… We’ve also wanted to test ourselves against SBI for many months now, but have never been able to because of the rigid tiered system. The SBI, Yaks, EBay match that the promo spat out had us all drooling. If we lose, we lose. But it’ll be 100x more fun than winning without trying. Losing to Maguuma by 90k was infinitely more fun than beating Anvil Rock by 180k.

I can’t remember what your signature said, but I am assuming you are an NA T1 or T2 player? Those seem to be the ones most opposed to the change. The tier differentiation in those top 2 NA tiers does not hold true across all tiers, many are much closer than you can know looking at the numbers on MOS. They should all be given the chance to see how they truly stack up.

Well unless they manually change the ratings, the current ratings WILL be used for the first match. Then they will change accordingly, but it will take time. So, the current ratings will be correct for the first few matches, unless they manually change them.

And yes, I am a T2 player. But i have also been a T3, T4 and T1 player (I’ve stuck with TC since the beginning, so I’ve bounced around). I look at the current system and I see the issue with it: it can punish servers (mostly high ranked servers), for being randomly matched against a much lower server. The way glicko works is that if a high ranked server faces a low ranked server, the high ranked server can still lose rating, even if they win, so it can effectively be a lose-lose situation. There can easily be an environment, where for instance, a rank 5 server face a match with a rank 9 server, while the rank 6 server faces a rank 7. The Rank 5 server might actually lose rank if they win, if the rank 6 server wins by enough (with the absense of the rank 5 server), which is probably why T1/T2 players tend to see it with more of a negative light. The new system can be good for fixing stagnant matches, but, and this is something that people from lower tiers haven’t answered: how far out of your tier do you want to face? If you make the random range half of what it is, you will still not have stagnant matches, but you will only, for the most part, face opponents within a tier of you. There won’t be any silly rank 1 vs rank 8 matches. That is mostly what I am trying to propose. Not that the new system is totally bad, just that it needs to be tweaked. It will allow lower tier servers that “belong” higher ranked to move up at a more natural rate.

You talk about the point of view from the lower tier server, which is valid from their point of view. But think of it from a higher ranked. If we win, the higher tier server, if faced against a server over a tier below it, will probably still lose rating. So, for them, its just a fight to not lose as much, so there is less incentive. The issue is the bounds between the tiers are “definite”( i.e. a rank 6 server won’t face a rank 7 unless they both move up, or r6 moves to r7 and r7 moves to r8, etc). If you make the random range from -0.5 to 0.5, then there is still a good chance that they will face, even rank 5 to rank 7. The ONLY difference it makes is it makes it very rare for the match ups like rank 1 to rank 8, etc. That is what shouldn’t happen, in my opinion.

I understand the frustration of losing points by winning the match, we’ve done that many times in our current matchup already. But I still go back to that point that many tiers are too far apart in points and that is an artificial gap made as a product of the system they currently use. The points have to come from somewhere to bring them back in line to where they really should be. It can’t be only from the servers directly around them because that’s what we’ve already been doing and it hasn’t worked sufficiently.

If #1 wins but loses points to #8, and then #8 wins but loses points to #14, the points are then available in that mid range to even out those inaccuracies. If #1 wins vs #4 and stays even in total rank points, that doesn’t actually help down the chain.

The artificial gaps have to be bridged, and like it or not the excess points float to the top, so they are going to have to come back down. Eventually, the extra points SF was given to break the NA T8 matchup also have to be removed from the system too, where do they come from if SF can only ever face very closely ranked opponents They will never win or lose enough to allow for the adjustment without sending them way down the ladder again.

That big variation, I believe, is a necessary evil to establish who exactly is close to your power range, because if we limit that down right now I doubt that it will give enough variation to allow the points to flow to where they need to be. Adjusting it later will likely be necessary, but not until we’ve fixed the holes that currently exist.

Manual adjustment may be a quicker way of doing it, but I don’t know how accurate that could be. It’s best to let it play and see where everyone lands.

What will happen for “almost dead” and “dead” servers?
I was hoping to see a merger or two, or at least free transfers

Khayoss.2019:

Handin.4032:

But with the current statistics, in fact, theres a smaller chance of you getting a match “in tier”, than out. You’re right, a T4 server could equal probability of facing a T3 or T5 server, as well as a T2 or T6 server. So, the T4 server might finally get to have a win, but what about the other server? Or, how would the T4 server feel if they went against a T2 server? It might be a different person server, but it probably won’t be much happier for them. The current statistics make it acutally fairly likely for a match up to be a blow out, its just whether or not you’re the server dominating, or being dominated. Their new method actually, statistically, CAN work out well, with a better range ~-0.5->0.5. This would ensure that you can still fight outside your tier still.

You’re statement that "With these new system you have the same chance to get a weaker opponent, than you have to get a stronger opponent. " forgets one important thing: what about the weaker server? If people are concerned with blow outs, they have to look at the matches as a WHOLE, not just “what will my server get.” Yes, your server might be a lucky one, and be rank 8 and face a rank 12 server. SO, what about the rank 12 server? The matches must be looked at as a whole to determine the fairness, especially when using the glicko server. It would be drastically unfair for a rank 4 server to face a rank 8, by pure chance, and lose enough rating to drop to rank 5, even if they win. This however, is a possibility under the new system, with the current parameters. I repeat this again, a server should NEVER be punished, especially not be losing a rank, etc, for winning and doing well, ESPECIALLY when the matches are purely random, and out of their control. If they tweak their parameters, it should allow that the tiers already in constant blow outs face new people, but also make it so that the matches are still somewhat balanced (3rd place T4 verse 1st or 2nd place T5).

[…]

Second, I can speak for the potentially weaker server that we relish the chance to be the one having it’s doors blown off by a “tier 3” server should the perfect storm of random numbers line up. For 3 months we’ve wanted to have another shot at Yaks Bend. They may be tier 3, but we feel like we are closer to them than we ever were before… We’ve also wanted to test ourselves against SBI for many months now, but have never been able to because of the rigid tiered system. The SBI, Yaks, EBay match that the promo spat out had us all drooling. If we lose, we lose. But it’ll be 100x more fun than winning without trying. Losing to Maguuma by 90k was infinitely more fun than beating Anvil Rock by 180k.

I can’t remember what your signature said, but I am assuming you are an NA T1 or T2 player? Those seem to be the ones most opposed to the change. The tier differentiation in those top 2 NA tiers does not hold true across all tiers, many are much closer than you can know looking at the numbers on MOS. They should all be given the chance to see how they truly stack up.

The big issue with the tier 1 and why we complain about the change is that if we end up against a T3 server (potentially even T2), the matchup just wont be fun, the gap between T1 and T2 is enormous. I think only DB would have a shot at being competitive. and even then, they seem to be struggling agains TC and FA…

And as of 2nd week, with our ratings drastically dropping due to the change even if we wipe the floor with you guys in the lower tiers, the chances of getting even lower servers will increase.

I honestly think Kaining is fairing much better against Maguuma and Yak’s than they would against SoR, and according to the example they gave, it could be a potential matchup. pitting #1 server who is winning by a lot for the past weeks against the other T1 servers against #7 will be a boring blowout.

And “winning by a lot” does not mean JQ and BG are bad or dont have the coverage for 24h a day. Even them against Kaining would be a blowout. T1 NA is really another game.

Im on ebay and fighting a T1 server would be fun

Ya know why? Because we’d get blown the kitten out but during NA primetime we’d be punching them in the mouth.

I like a challenge and if we get pitted against a 24/7 coverage server good….it’ll help us develope new tactics.

Its not about winning or losing but how much fun you have. We all know that coverage wins and is the only difference between tiers

This is literally the stupidest stupid to ever stupid.

LostBalloon.6423:

The big issue with the tier 1 and why we complain about the change is that if we end up against a T3 server (potentially even T2), the matchup just wont be fun, the gap between T1 and T2 is enormous. I think only DB would have a shot at being competitive. and even then, they seem to be struggling agains TC and FA…

And as of 2nd week, with our ratings drastically dropping due to the change even if we wipe the floor with you guys in the lower tiers, the chances of getting even lower servers will increase.

I honestly think Kaining is fairing much better against Maguuma and Yak’s than they would against SoR, and according to the example they gave, it could be a potential matchup. pitting #1 server who is winning by a lot for the past weeks against the other T1 servers against #7 will be a boring blowout.

And “winning by a lot” does not mean JQ and BG are bad or dont have the coverage for 24h a day. Even them against Kaining would be a blowout. T1 NA is really another game.

I understand that, but you also have to understand that your situation isn’t isolated or new. The gap between Tier 4 – including EBay at the top of Tier 5 – and the rest of Tier 5 is probably close to as big as the gap between Tier 1 and 2… and we have been living that “no fun” situation week in and week out for 3months now with no way out. The only way to even this out is to have opportunity to steal points from higher rated servers instead of lower ones. That inherently means that some higher ranked servers are going to have to win some landslides but lose points to lesser competition just like we have already been doing. Its the only way to fix us and those like us.

In this system, you’ll have a week now and then where you don’t have a lot of fun, but we will actually have hope of having a fun challenge for the first time in months. What you are complaining about seems like a dream come true from our side of the fence.

For those on the higher Tiers that are upset that they would get no fun match-ups(And they may not be it might surprise you). I would suggest you then transfer to a lower Tier server.

LostBalloon.6423:

From what I see in the article, the change will only make things worse if you look at the potential matchup listing they gave in that article.

JQ would steamroll its opposition during asian/oceanic time while fairing well against DB’s NA and good luck to FA in that matchup.

The 2nd matchup, SoR BG & Kaining, i think would end up in a 1 on 1 between SoR and BG with Kaining getting the short end of the stick. Kaining would get wiped off maps the moment they show an outmanned buff and have a hard time ticking above 200 ppt even during their primetime. SoR has the strongest NA and a large one at that while BG has good numbers around the clock.

And beyond that, all top tier servers will start bleeding rating points because it is almost impossible to dominate with a difference higher than 100k points even in an extremely unbalanced matchup, causing these top servers to be matched agains even weaker servers than the ones they will destroy…

I know with the old tier system they had an issue making it impossible for servers to change tiers as weeks went by, but at least matchups were pretty even or at least servers were matched up with those that fit their ability best. I feel this new change is horrible, all they needed to do was to tweak their current rating system to actually make it possible for a server to go up or drop down from a tier…

How can you say JQ would steamroll Dragonbrand during SEA time when Dragonbrand has a gigantic SEA population?

Why do people keep on talking about blowout when they have seen guilds server hop. It’s as if nobody will transfer servers.

This change is irrelevant, the main problem still exists…

Khayoss.2019:

LostBalloon.6423:

The big issue with the tier 1 and why we complain about the change is that if we end up against a T3 server (potentially even T2), the matchup just wont be fun, the gap between T1 and T2 is enormous. I think only DB would have a shot at being competitive. and even then, they seem to be struggling agains TC and FA…

And as of 2nd week, with our ratings drastically dropping due to the change even if we wipe the floor with you guys in the lower tiers, the chances of getting even lower servers will increase.

I honestly think Kaining is fairing much better against Maguuma and Yak’s than they would against SoR, and according to the example they gave, it could be a potential matchup. pitting #1 server who is winning by a lot for the past weeks against the other T1 servers against #7 will be a boring blowout.

And “winning by a lot” does not mean JQ and BG are bad or dont have the coverage for 24h a day. Even them against Kaining would be a blowout. T1 NA is really another game.

I understand that, but you also have to understand that your situation isn’t isolated or new. The gap between Tier 4 – including EBay at the top of Tier 5 – and the rest of Tier 5 is probably close to as big as the gap between Tier 1 and 2… and we have been living that “no fun” situation week in and week out for 3months now with no way out. The only way to even this out is to have opportunity to steal points from higher rated servers instead of lower ones. That inherently means that some higher ranked servers are going to have to win some landslides but lose points to lesser competition just like we have already been doing. Its the only way to fix us and those like us.

In this system, you’ll have a week now and then where you don’t have a lot of fun, but we will actually have hope of having a fun challenge for the first time in months. What you are complaining about seems like a dream come true from our side of the fence.

The reason I complain is the “random” factor in the whole thing. Think about it, its not about winning or losing, but having interesting matchups, with us bleeding rating points (yes, ratings do need to be fixed, but the ranking system is broken from its core), we might end up close enough for the randomness to match us against a server from tier 4 by the 2nd week of this new system.

That just wouldn’t be fun for either side.

I am so very happy to see Anet doing something about the match-up system. Will it be perfect? No it probably won’t, any new system will have unexpected results. But the fact that a problem is being worked on instead of ignored is a big deal.

Matchups have become very stale, very boring, and the lower tiers never get to experience more advanced tactics. If you never compete against players and groups better than your own, there isn’t a way to improve, because you never need to change your tactics and procedures. I think this new system can only help us. I’m sure the new system will have to be modified and fine tuned, but I am eagerly anticipating it’s implementation.

I’m hoping skill-lag is next on their list.

Milky,
-Blackgate (tier 1)

LostBalloon.6423:

The reason I complain is the “random” factor in the whole thing. Think about it, its not about winning or losing, but having interesting matchups, with us bleeding rating points (yes, ratings do need to be fixed, but the ranking system is broken from its core), we might end up close enough for the randomness to match us against a server from tier 4 by the 2nd week of this new system.

That just wouldn’t be fun for either side.

Ok let’s look at an extreme case then. Sanctum of Rall, under the new system has about a 5% chance of facing Maguuma, a T3 server in week 1. While that is incredibly low and extremely unlikely, lets say that happens. The two servers have roughly a 400 rank point difference under the current system, which means that SoR should be able to blow the doors off of Maguuma without even getting out of bed in the morning.

A similar matchup pointwise that I could find was Blacktide (1081) vs Fissure of Woe (684) vs Vabbi (481) in T9 EU. In matches where Blacktide won by roughly 220k points they lost in the neighborhood of 17 ratings points – more due to the fact that Vabbi was a 600 underdog than due to FoW’s 400 point difference. Matches where Blacktide won by closer to 400k they actually gained significant points (30+).

So bringing this back to T1 vs T3, if SoR somehow drew the short 5% straw TWICE in the same week and got matched with Maguuma AND Kaineng, they would likely have to win by somewhere in the neighborhood of 260k to break even, and failing to do so, but winning by 200k or so would net them a loss of less than 20 points. So:

1) If the matches are closer than that, then the gap between T1 and T3 servers isn’t as wide as is claimed.
2) If SoR loses points by winning in a blowout, the amount of points from a single matchup would not be significant enough to drop them down from 1st place, let alone putting them in danger of being paired with a T4 server.
3) If SoR wins, but somehow loses a massive chunk of ratings because they could only clear say a 100k victory, this emphasizes point #1 (that there is a gap, but it’s not as big as perceived). It also probably drops SoR to #2 overall temporarily, and increases the odds of the same matchup happening again from 5% to a little over 8%, which is a far cry from being likely to face a T4 server in week 2.

Bottom line, a T1 server would have to barely beat a T3 server to lose enough rank points to be facing a T4 server week 2, if that happens then they deserve to be facing the T4 server because they clearly aren’t as good as they think they are. They would have to have the most unlucky roles of the RNG twice in a row, two weeks in a row when drawing opponents.

So, why worry? If T1 servers are as good as they think they are, worst case scenario is that they will lose 20-30 points here and there in the extremely rare overly imbalanced matchup that is drawn. If they aren’t, then this will simply give everyone else a shot at competition that is closer to their level than they have been allowed to know by the current system. Either way, the points needed to balance the middle of the pack floats down to where they need to be.

Unless there is population balancing on maps, there will be no way to equalize match-ups.

I guess I’m skeptical of how well this is going to work. I guess I see the potential for disaster in the lower tiers more so then in the higher tiers. I’m on NSP, currently the bottom of T7, and we are completely outmanned and lacking coverage badly. I can’t see how we could hope to have anything even close to a remotely fair matchup against anyone other then maybe t8 opponents. I would not be surprised if our numbers are even lower then some of them tbh.

Anet really needs to either encourage transfers to the lower tiers or maybe make the outmanned buff actually useful. I can appreciate the “free repair” buff but it doesn’t really help significantly outmanned servers in any real way. It sucks being outmanned in your own BL week after week after week.

NSP is a great example. For the last 8 weeks, NSP has been moving back and forth between rank 20 and rank 21 (the bottom two spots in US tier 7). The accuracy of NSP’s rating, when compared to DR, is probably pretty good and shows that NSP and DR have very similar strength.

But is NSP really a better server than HoD? It’s hard to know for sure. NSP’s rating is 80 points higher, but HoD might actually be a stronger server.

Under the new system, a matchup between NSP and HoD will be much more likely, and we will find out just how the servers compare — if HoD turns out to be a stronger server, NSP may find itself the new top dog in tier 8, rather than being at the bottom of tier 7. And if NSP is the stronger server, they will be able to get some rating points from HoD to help push them higher in tier 7.

-ken

Khayoss.2019:

LostBalloon.6423:

The reason I complain is the “random” factor in the whole thing. Think about it, its not about winning or losing, but having interesting matchups, with us bleeding rating points (yes, ratings do need to be fixed, but the ranking system is broken from its core), we might end up close enough for the randomness to match us against a server from tier 4 by the 2nd week of this new system.

That just wouldn’t be fun for either side.

Ok let’s look at an extreme case then. Sanctum of Rall, under the new system has about a 5% chance of facing Maguuma, a T3 server in week 1. While that is incredibly low and extremely unlikely, lets say that happens. The two servers have roughly a 400 rank point difference under the current system, which means that SoR should be able to blow the doors off of Maguuma without even getting out of bed in the morning.

[…]

So, why worry? If T1 servers are as good as they think they are, worst case scenario is that they will lose 20-30 points here and there in the extremely rare overly imbalanced matchup that is drawn. If they aren’t, then this will simply give everyone else a shot at competition that is closer to their level than they have been allowed to know by the current system. Either way, the points needed to balance the middle of the pack floats down to where they need to be.

See, i think the points are way more volatile than you consider them to be, just by looking at how they fluctuate within the tier. It is already quite easy to make a server bleed points, the only problem right now is those points are stuck in their respective tier. And if you notice, green bleeds more points when red has a close score than if the gap between blue and green had that same gap.

Also, from their example, you can see that chances of 2 servers with 10% chance being potentially matched up isn’t that much of an “exception”. It can very well happen easily and repetitively.

Will it be better than what we currently have? Only time will tell. I believe it wont be better, but it will at least give ppl a fresh matchup instead of the usual one they are stuck in. I still think they have yet to adress the real issue, the need to rework the ranking system from the ground up. The problem isn’t how matchups are created, the problem is in how the ranking points work and are attributed. They are patching the system to even out the scores, after which they will have to patch the range, which will have another side effect, potentially trending towards the same kind of situation we currently have just at a different pace.

JonPeters.5630:

timidobserver.7925:

I have a couple of serious questions.
1. Did the person that came up with the math for this graduate from high school.
2. To prove it, please upload a copy of your high school diploma.

How about just a copy of their resume. I don’t see his high school experience on there. Hopefully the other stuff can count as relevant experience for your assessment.

http://www.glicko.net/cv.html

I had to bump this one last time for history.

Pryda.8257:

JonPeters.5630:

timidobserver.7925:

I have a couple of serious questions.
1. Did the person that came up with the math for this graduate from high school.
2. To prove it, please upload a copy of your high school diploma.

How about just a copy of their resume. I don’t see his high school experience on there. Hopefully the other stuff can count as relevant experience for your assessment.

http://www.glicko.net/cv.html

I had to bump this one last time for history.

I think it is nice that they posted the resume of someone that does not work at ANET at all. That’s like me giving an employer the resume of the creator of C# programming language when I apply for a job, extremely useful.

The issue with this entire thread is that there is two camps of people. Those that will not be impacted by a blowout match and thus the change of scenery and less stagnation of the matches is more important then if the matches are balanced.

Those that know how boring a blowout match is feel that balance is more important than stagnation. Every time you have a blowout match the winning server loses good players. They play less for the week, take a break, and a portion of those just never come back because the game is already boring, with an extremely low skill cap.

I do not think there are many people defending the glicko system, there are lots of problems, but does the new system actually help/fix anything or just create different problems? I agree with many other posters if you are going to go down this road then start with a very small amount of deviation and increase as needed. We need occasional matches where tier above/below shifts by one so that those feeling trapped in a lower tier get a chance to see if they can make it in the tier above and a chance to get the points to move there. What we do not need is T1 servers fighting T3 servers. Small deviation lets them watch how the new randomization is impacting the glicko system and then ANET can make informed decisions about the deviation.

End of the day ANET is the one that lead with the example of KN fighting JQ, if there is an image issue of this change it is their own kitten fault.

Niim.9260:

The issue with this entire thread is that there is two camps of people. Those that will not be impacted by a blowout match and thus the change of scenery and less stagnation of the matches is more important then if the matches are balanced.

I only wonder were the “old system”-faction got the believe that the old system favor balanced matches. It did a while, as long as it allowed switches in the tiers, but today it only guarantees stagnation! It does not care et al on balance. Matches stagnate till blow-out.

The funny thing is, if you look at the current ratings, EBAY, and SOS are would be moving in the near future….

All anet has to do is add a little bit more volatility in ratings so servers like SOS and EBAY dont have to keep winning by ridiculous margins and problem of stagnation solved.

What Anet is proposing to do is a terrible solution which will result in:

1) Ridiculous Blowouts
2) Rating Point bleeding down into weaker servers, which over time, will lead to greater probabilities of blowouts.

Can Kaineng beat JQ? No not a chance. Until the scoring system favors skill over coverage there is no fix.

Dayra.7405:

Niim.9260:

The issue with this entire thread is that there is two camps of people. Those that will not be impacted by a blowout match and thus the change of scenery and less stagnation of the matches is more important then if the matches are balanced.

I only wonder were the “old system”-faction got the believe that the old system favor balanced matches. It did a while, as long as it allowed switches in the tiers, but today it only guarantees stagnation! It does not care et al on balance. Matches stagnate till blow-out.

Agree with this. There are a couple of tiers that have had blowout scores of close to 100K between 1st and second for weeks (including T1 EU) with servers unable to shift between tiers despite these big scores.

Actinotus.6410:

Dayra.7405:

Niim.9260:

The issue with this entire thread is that there is two camps of people. Those that will not be impacted by a blowout match and thus the change of scenery and less stagnation of the matches is more important then if the matches are balanced.

I only wonder were the “old system”-faction got the believe that the old system favor balanced matches. It did a while, as long as it allowed switches in the tiers, but today it only guarantees stagnation! It does not care et al on balance. Matches stagnate till blow-out.

Agree with this. There are a couple of tiers that have had blowout scores of close to 100K between 1st and second for weeks (including T1 EU) with servers unable to shift between tiers despite these big scores.

Agreed, and im in the old system camp… but there was no need for this. Just a bit of volatility to help nudge servers out of tiers they clearly didnt belong in….

Aurust.8961:

Can Kaineng beat JQ? No not a chance. Until the scoring system favors skill over coverage there is no fix.

The example was a complete mess, agreed. And it was based on outdated numbers as well. The actual change of Kaineng meat JQ is around 2% or ONCE IN A YEAR.

But it is sure with the old system that SoR vs JQ will be forever. Independently how many people or guilds continue to leave JQ or join SoR.

Keep in mind that a key deficiency of the ‘old’ system is that servers move to a higher tier only by carrying points up with them. Every time a server moves up, the point pool in the tiers below gets smaller, and it becomes harder for other servers to move up also.

When the game was new it was easy to move up or down based on your strength. But now, the only way to advance is to have blowouts week after week.

In chess, this problem is solved by the constant influx of new players with ‘provisional’ ratings (direct injection of new points) and by the structure of rated matches that allows lower rated players to play against much higher rated opponents (cross-tier matches).

GW2 doesn’t have new servers coming online, and it currently has no way to get cross-tier matches. So we need another mechanism to supply lower servers that deserve to move up with a source of rating points they can steal.

-ken

Snowreap.5174:

Keep in mind that a key deficiency of the ‘old’ system is that servers move to a higher tier only by carrying points up with them. Every time a server moves up, the point pool in the tiers below gets smaller, and it becomes harder for other servers to move up also.

When the game was new it was easy to move up or down based on your strength. But now, the only way to advance is to have blowouts week after week.

In chess, this problem is solved by the constant influx of new players with ‘provisional’ ratings (direct injection of new points) and by the structure of rated matches that allows lower rated players to play blowout matches against much higher rated opponents (cross-tier matches).

GW2 doesn’t have new servers coming online, and it currently has no way to get cross-tier matches. So we need another mechanism to supply lower servers that deserve to move up with a source of rating points they can steal.

-ken

My guess is they are going to tweak this system a little. Even though it may only be 0.02% for say a T4 SoS to meet a T8 Eredon Terrace, I think completely eliminating the possibility of a matchup like that makes sense (and would lessen the fear coming from some). Looking at current ranking points on MoS I would limit it to +/- 300 ranking points so, for example, next week SoS could play against anyone between TC and SBI, and SoR could only play servers down to FA.

This change will break WvW worse than the proposed reset of a few months ago. At least with a reset, the rankings would eventually go back to where they should be and you wouldn’t get Tier 1 servers randomly dropping to lower tiers. Blowout city incoming.

Aurust.8961:

Can Kaineng beat JQ? No not a chance. Until the scoring system favors skill over coverage there is no fix.

Why do people say this?

I mean, if I went to play a game, that say, the way you win the game was to pop balloons, I would find it odd that players would fuss they are losing the game because it was not deigned to cater to their platform jumping skills.

Say for example – If I felt the most skill in WvW involved being able to solo naked run though a camp and see how many rabbits I could kill with a plank. Then that is what I make of the game, and I very well may be the best player in the entire game at being able to do that, but that does not mean anyone else needs to have their game adjusted to cater to what I find enjoyable or be forced to be measured by what I think is mark of skill in the game.

fishergrip.4082:

This change will break WvW worse than the proposed reset of a few months ago.

Definitely not.
The reset would have put a uniform distribution over match-likelihood for several weeks, where in the second round a match First vs Winner of T8/9 was nearly sure.

This one puts a bell curve centered around you capabilities over the match-likelihood.
And a match spanning over more than 10 places is impossible.

Snowreap.5174:

GW2 doesn’t have new servers coming online, and it currently has no way to get cross-tier matches. So we need another mechanism to supply lower servers that deserve to move up with a source of rating points they can steal.
-ken

That is working backwards artificially boosting servers points above their levels when in reality the server strength remains the same. While everyone want’s diverse matchups nobody needs blowouts. As long the servers population is uneven and scoring system rewards coverage and population there will be diverse but some ugly matches down the road. The post below says it all.

Maladon.5760:

The problem isn’t the first week of matchups. The problem will be a few weeks down the line when higher ranked servers have been bled of ratings points by being matched up with lower ranked servers. At that point it’s very possible for really ugly matches to occur.