Guild Wars 2

Did something happen in a patch that removed random 3rd and 4th map to always be the same 2? Or remove the random percent to these to to make it seem that way? In the last few days I have run 4 fractal sets and all 4 times I got Shaman as the third and Mai Trin as the fourth. All 4 times in a row makes me think bug or very low chance something different. Anyone else notice this?

…It’s random.

Zui.9245:

…It’s random.

I know it is supposed to be random but I feel something dot bugged on it’s randomness and it is picking those 2 only. For 4 times in a row the same 2 to me that feels like a bug. I am up to 37 not because I rarely run them, only because I have not dumped money into AR until recently. I had never gotten the same ones more than twice. 2 of the runs were back to back and both were different Levels.

Thank you for the reply but hopefully someone will respond with more than “It’s random” Which in the past it has always been random. but now after 4 runs in a row it is not.

Wizard.6829:

Thank you for the reply but hopefully someone will respond with more than “It’s random” Which in the past it has always been random. but now after 4 runs in a row it is not.

It’s random.

That’s not the answer you want, but that’s the whole point of randomness. It’s ‘random fractals’, it’s not ‘different fractals’. Getting the same order four times in a row is possible in a random system. The next time you go, you have as much of a chance to get Mai Trin again as you do any of the other individual boss fractals. That is what randomness is.

Um Randomness means well, Random not the same ones over and over. If you see nothing but the same 2 it means a possible but, maybe something happened when patching and they accidentally changed while tweaking something else. It has happened before on items why not on maps? I remember when Charged Quarts were dropping every node farm due to an oops of this same type instance.
I did not put this post here for someone to say “It’s random” since 4 times in a row means broken. I know it can happen but that would be the same odds of a legendary dropping. Slim to none. So if the replies are all going to be it’s random then I will chalk it up as a worthless post and the reason I rarely post on the forums.

In a random system is it expected to get strings of repeats that humans who don’t know anything about statistics or human cognitive biases might think are somehow significant when in fact they are not. You’re evidently a human who doesn’t know anything about statistics or human cognitive biases. You think getting Volcanic-Mai 4 times in a row is significant, when it is not.

You’re thinking the random system isn’t random, because it doesn’t meet your incorrect definition of what a random system actually is. It turns out that reality does not always conform to your expectations of it, but it is much more likely to do so when you form your expectations of reality from studying reality its self, instead of just making stuff up mentally and assuming reality will conform to your made up assumptions which are almost certainly wrong.

May I suggest: http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-05-introduction-to-probability-and-statistics-spring-2005/

Sorry but it is random. However I wouldn’t discount the possibility that the shards you get previously makes it more likely to get a certain instance on the next shard. For example, I also notice how getting shaman usually ends up with you getting Mai. It could just be a coincidence but I’ve noticed several of these patterns. For instance: swamp, harpy, shaman, Mai.

However just because I notice a pattern doesn’t mean it isn’t random luck.