Guild Wars 2

Chris.3290:

Where did you get the glicko ratings from

ratings came from here:
https://leaderboards.guildwars2.com/en/na/wvwmain

league play has temporarily put the randomized matchups on hold, but as far as I can tell rating calculations have still been happening every week, despite nobody really caring about them.

-ken

uggh, SoR has managed to lose enough rating that they’ll be a regular fixture in T2-T3 matches like TC has been. Luckily have low volatility.
JQ and SoR really need to press the 2v1 once ZDs goes home.

In better news, SBI has high volatility so still a good chance that fight can/will come to our door.

I would like it if Anet had a major glitch and the other two servers are also my own server in a Gandara v Gandara v Gandara battle.

And we all have a troll fest, laugh on TS and mock taunt each other on our server forums.

Actinotus.6410:

1. Ebay
2. Dragonbrand (just for fun)

Also, I want to face IoJ… I need to see with my own eyes this [Mend] that no longer bunkers and fight in open field.

Also I’ll be able to go fight the honeybuns.

Oh the Honeybuns! We would get 1 million gifs in our thread! I don’t know if this is good or bad.

Avatar of Belle.9623:

Oh the Honeybuns! We would get 1 million gifs in our thread! I don’t know if this is good or bad.

Snowreap.5174:

here are the estimated matchup probabilities for tomorrow.

-ken

Hi Ken,
Did you found some infos about the possible tweaks Devon has announced:
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/wuv/wuv/Matchmaking-Post-Season-1/3087056
or did you used the old parameter?

the same old parameters. until and unless Arenanet tells us what the new parameters are, all I can do is assume they are the same.

-ken

Please, dear god of randomness, let us face Aurora Glade and Gunnars Hold at the same time. Most epic fights ever incoming, even though we’d get stomped over the week.

Aurora Glade Vs Abbadons Vs Elona Reach

and

Gandara Vs Riverside VS Kodash

That would be n1

Elona Reach vs Riverside vs Kodash of course

But
Elona-Vizu-Piken
SFR-Kodash-Riverside
would be cool as well

HoD/IoJ/GoM the amount of troll in that thread..

Realistically I wanna see still an IoJ/HoD/NSP match.

SOS and MAG please. I want to see roamers again.

Just waiting for Ken’s new assessment. The table Anet published does not see like it can be right. The percentages are all whack.

But from SBI I’d like to face TC and/or SoS.

I’m running numbers now. The change from (1.0, 40.0) parameters to (0.45, 10.0) is easy enough but the ‘cap’ changing from 200 to 100 requires a code change (I was previously unaware that any cap existed).

however, odd percentages can happen (and may even show up in my numbers; we’ll see shortly) because every matchup needs 3 servers. sometimes your best opponent doesn’t get to play you very often because they keep getting dragged into other matches to fill out the third spot.

-ken

ok, here are the numbers. sure enough, the numbers look a little odd, but this is actually normal due to the reduced variance.

if you look at the NA numbers, you will see that SBI has a very low chance of playing DB, even though SBI and DB are adjacent in the ratings. the reason for this (I’m guessing, without having done a lot of analysis) is that SBI is well able to fill in spot #9 (the last spot in tier 3) or a higher spot, but if SBI ends up playing in tier 4 (due to randomization) there is really only 1 server that is qualified to fill the #9 spot — DB. this makes the probability of SBI vs DB lower because either SBI is in tier 3, or DB is, but rarely both. and SBI and DB can’t both be in tier 4 at once because that means 2 servers below both of you will need to fill spots in tier 3 and the new reduced variances won’t let that happen.

-ken

yeah the same for TC and SoR, 0% to play against each other, because either of them must take the 3rd spot in T1, but both in T1 is not possible.

Fffff.

I’m not sure if I want to play YB again. Sure we learn and we need to adapt to their defense but the fights are SO boring…

Give me SOS/TC/FA/MAG/EBay instead ugh.

Thanks Ken! Makes sense.

But man I don’t like those numbers. I liked Anets messed up one’s better. Looks like SBI and Yaks are going to be married for awhile.

Man…I wanted to fight HoD so I could gvg but there is like no chance of getting hod in a a match up. DR & ET = 66%

DR, will you marry ET?

Dropper.9176:

Aurora Glade Vs Abbadons Vs Elona Reach

and

Gandara Vs Riverside VS Kodash

That would be n1

I’m guessing that you’re not from AG or Gandara

Not Deso, not again :p

I’m Dh, I’ll say… FC and AR. FC and Dh are just fairly close to each other it seems (may be wrong, we’ll see). AR is a wild card, now that leagues are over and every server is dramatically different from when leagues were going, AR may be strong enough to take on Dh/FC. Time will tell.

82% of TC…ugghh.

I guess getting EP was the dowry for this marriage.

NOT the servers we got teamed up against theis week … again thats for sure, effing Viz and SFR

Ironvos.9014:

Not Deso, not again :p

you poor sods why can’t they just go back to gold league already?

Its that time of week again!

Percents coming tomorrow or today ken? Asking due to a few match ups being fairly close?

On topic:
NSP/HoD/IoJ

Blood shall be had.

ANET NEEDS TO SAVE THIS.

Dude, i love your weekly posts. I hope you continue giving %s even after anet wipes match up threads.

And i Know its gonna be MAG/YB/SBI next week so meh. I’d replace YB with Ebay

Danny Devito and a plate of Lasagna

yeah, I guess we’ll have to start a new thread when the matchups forum is gone.

here are the numbers for the next match. wow, it looks like the rating gap between NA #3 and #4 is now large enough that NA tier 1 has no randomness at all — it’s guaranteed to be BG vs JQ vs SoR. there’s still a possibility for some randomness for most of the rest of us, though.

-ken

Third call for: Kodash – Elona – Riverside

I hope it happens before MU threads are gone.

Snowreap.5174:

it looks like the rating gap between NA #3 and #4 is now large enough that NA tier 1 has no randomness at all — it’s guaranteed to be BG vs JQ vs SoR.
…
-ken

Yeah with TC not winning T2 (-32 rating) and SoR not loosing T1 (+30 rating) this is probably adequate (Gap increase by 62).

I really want a AG/ GH/RoS week. I thinj that would be a really fun match up with hopefully the potential for a lot of small scale fights assuming we have all got over the leagues fever. Either or no matter who we fight I am looking forward to it.

I should clarify — there is still some possibility of color randomization within NA tier 1. but the choice of servers for tier 1 is locked in as BG, JQ and SoR. so my “no randomness at all” statement wasn’t actually true.

-ken

Please request from the moderator to move this thread by having the OP report thread and state “move thread” before the closure of this particular sub-forum

Fuzzion.2504:

Please request from the moderator to move this thread by having the OP report thread and state “move thread” before the closure of this particular sub-forum

No! This thread must die with us!

I’d like to face a T1 EU server. Any of them would do. I just want to see how different EU servers play as a whole versus just one or two guilds that transfer to NA servers.

Would love if we would be able to fight against NA servers, that would be awesome, fighting same servers all the time becomes boring

When it comes to servers I would like to fight next week, that would be: Baruch Bay and Ruins of Surmia :P

Some non DE or FR servers.

Shonex.5327:

Would love if we would be able to fight against NA servers, that would be awesome, fighting same servers all the time becomes boring

When it comes to servers I would like to fight next week, that would be: Baruch Bay and Ruins of Surmia :P

To be honest EU prime in NA is a bit like off peak in EU, where there are not many guilds out so there isn’t much competition. If you were looking for fights you’d have to log in early for fights against SEA or stay up late for fights against EST NA as most guilds like HB/IRON/Coin have complained about boredom for the most-part. I think it would be pretty underwhelming for both sides, PvD for the NA servers in their prime and PvD for the EU’s in their prime.

Junkpile.7439:

Some non DE or FR servers.

If you transfer to Vizu, you would get SFR and Piken, voila
If you transfer to Vabbi you likely get only EU-opponents as well.

If you stay on SFr you have to drop 100 – 250 ratings points AND roll a -1 – 0 to fight BB, Aurora, Deso, Gandara.

From what I’m seeing all the new ratings system does it make it even harder for servers to gain any traction. Disappoint.

Bring on TC!

From SBIer

I still want a match with EBay. Glad we could try out SoS though

Holy mother of kitten up RNG give us something else than viz and piken.

Natronix.9827:

I still want a match with EBay. Glad we could try out SoS though

Why do guys want a match with EBay?? You know they aren’t a T3 server, right?

NiloyBardhan.9170:

Natronix.9827:

I still want a match with EBay. Glad we could try out SoS though

Why do guys want a match with EBay?? You know they aren’t a T3 server, right?

EhmBay has a T3 class NA presence, plus they probably want an easier week. The only reason they are close this week is YB’s complete drop off the radar during the holiday.

Not because of an easier week I just want to get abit of payback.

YB still brough stronger EU presence than SoS and SBI this week. SBI is stronger during NA, and SoS just rules on Oceanic-SEA.

let’s see if this can get to 500 posts before it gets deleted

NA has to do it, we already have our new matches in EU