Showing Posts For Jack.4016:
It does prove a trend towards it, if you analize the date correctly. You also fail to prove that the droprate for a precursor is the same as for any other exotic, you are just assuming it and then wonder why your calculations are wrong.
Well sir/madam u are right :P I went trough the wiki again and there is no mention of the odds for all items (greatswords in this case) should be the same.
Also i just saw on the wiki that there is also the chance of getting soulbound items. So when counting the items in black lion traiding company i also made a mistake
Again: the chance to get a precursor is not as high as getting any other exotic weapon from a forge, it doesnt matter if you put in rare or exotics.
Is this a fact? your previous link does not prove this as far as i can tell.
From my experience, the odds of a precursor return from mystic forge is between 1/500 and 1/1000
what are you using for input? rare or exotic / greatswords?
Precursors dont seem to have the same chance of being forged than other exotic weapons.
i’m sry but i dont think this helps me:
i get it that 1/75 succes rate with exotic greatswords is different to my calculation which would come to 2/48 with exotic only.
But 75 attempts is not that big of a number in my opinion. Based on quick calculations with my numbers there is roughly a 11% chance of this happing, at which point its just considerd bad luck.
for the rest of data is not with greatswords so the odds would be different
So i started to calculate the expected value of return of mystic forging the dusk and dawn when i noticed that either it is really profitable or my calculations should be wrong. These were my calculations in small steps:
input value: 4x cheapest rare greatsword lvl 80 = 4×50 silver = 2g
odds of getting dusk/dawn: There is a roughly 20% chance of receiving a higher quality item, in this case a exotic. In the black trading company there are 48 exotic greatswords available including dusk and dawn. this would mean that the odds of getting them would be 0.2 x (2/48) = 0.00833333 = 2/240 or 1/120
expected value of return: the current value of dusk and dawn are >600 g. expected value of return would be (2/240) x 600g/2g = 2.5 which is incredibly good.
In other words i have a 1 in 120 chance of getting dusk or dawn. my input is 2g (4x rare greatsword) . So if i tried at least 120x forging it i would most likely get dusk or dawn. so the cost would be: 120 × 2g = 240g and profit would be >600g. Not the mention the fact that i considert all other 238/240 posibillities as a 100% loss wich they are not.
This seems crazy amount of profit to me and i know that a lot of players have put a bigger amount of gold then 240g in it so where did i go wrong?