Just bet 50 silver that it’d land at the harpy nests. It did, and came up with a dialogue thing saying “Lucky guess” but he didn’t give me any coins. My inventory was full at this point, and I noticed I had a Harpy Nests ticket.
He then fired for the last time and it reached the tower. He took the ticket, I got the “No, you’re wrong” dialogue, and still no coins.
50 silver lost, for no good reason