Guild Wars 2

Does anyone know if it’s strictly random or if it’s programmed so that a winner won’t win again in the next round, etc?

On the assumption that it IS completely random, the EV of each Moa race is -6s. On average it should take 15 races to get three wins, for a total loss of 90s. Of course that’s the average, it could easily take you three races (took me four because I’m stupidly lucky apparently, sorry folks!) but it could just as easily take you 100. I’d probably not recommend trying for the achievement unless you had at least 10g to cover a bad swing, though I guess it’s really down to how much of a gambler you are.

Of course if the result of one race does somehow impact future races then my numbers are all off and it’d be beyond my limited mathematical ability to work out.

tl;dr: over enough trials Moa racing isn’t profitable (unsurprisingly).

This is currently bugged on Desolation EU – no NPC there.