Guild Wars 2

AWSUMSAUCE.4372:

‘Oh, well, chocolate and christmas go together… lets buy choc coz ppl will be using it!’

It wasn’t the christmas speculation that caused chocolate to go up. One of the recent patches nerfed the drop rate on chocolate and it took a while for the major players to make their move on the chocolate market. Once people saw the trend of the chocolate (steady demand, and increasingly lower supply) it becomes an obvious target for market manipulation.

This is all observation on my part, I’m no economist.

Logun.5360:

It was easy to see what would happen after ArenaNet nerfed chocolate bar drop rates across the board.

Just curious, where did ArenaNet say they were nerfing chocolate bar drop rates? Didn’t see it in any of the recent patch notes, or anywhere obvious.

Are the new plans for the Apothecary stuff available at the crafting trainers?

Icarium.5863:

Did you use all of the same rare greatswords, i.e. Carrion Krait Slayer? Or did you mix and match as much as possible? Obviously when you use rares that come out of the forge they’ll mostly be different ones, but what did you use to start off?

Mixing and matching whatever was cheapest to craft at the time. For a while I was just combining 4 of the same weapons over and over, then tried to always include at least 1 or 2 different weapons in the combine. But it didn’t seem to make a difference either way.

Icarium.5863:

Other than your current streak without a Dusk, does your data seem pretty consistent across the whole timeline of your sample?

As far as getting the exotics, it’s pretty consistent. I might go ~15 combines with no exotics, but it always evens out with a few exotics in a row shortly after. Also 2 of my dusks were found within ~250-300 combines from one another, got lucky there.

Icarium.5863:

Did you do your forges at a specific time during the day? Is it confirmed that this affects whether you get Dawn or Dusk?

I never really paid attention to the in game time of days so I can’t really say. Also I wasn’t using any MF, just throwing that out there. Not saying MF doesn’t help (since it hasn’t been proven) I just wasn’t using any.

I’ve got a decent sample size built up for rare Greatswords.

So far:
Total Mystic Forge combines – 3318 (Including the rares produced by the forge – 13,272 rares used)
Rares Produced – 2664
Exotics Produced – 654 (19.7% chance at exotics)
Dusks Produced – 4 (0.1205% chance at a dusk)
Dawns Produced – 0

None of the exotics produced were thrown back into the forge, so the #’s are from rare combines only.

On a side note, It’s been ~2035 Combines since my last Dusk. Almost 2/3 of my sample size hasn’t produced a single precursor. So I’ve been on an unlucky steak and it still continues. Not that I’m complaining, just don’t expect a precursor after 700+ combines.

(updated some of the #‘s since I’ve posted this)