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The problem of the Glicko 2 rating system

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Posted by: Phoric.9052

Phoric.9052

Well it should not difficult but the system they implemented does not operate this way. Glicko uses past performance to calculate rating (among other things) which biases well performing servers down and match upsets up. Also Anet added their own factors that decrease rating gains from dominant servers in a tier.

The problem of the Glicko 2 rating system

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Posted by: Phoric.9052

Phoric.9052

It is not really a problem but the current system keeps servers in a tier far longer that they should be. That is evident over and over again; SoS was in T2 forever then when the finally moved to T1 they did very well, same goes for IoJ moving from T2 to T3, now they look really good.

The original point of the post was not to re-hash the issue of server coverage or population it was to call attention to how the current ranking system operates and how it is flawed.

The problem of the Glicko 2 rating system

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Posted by: Phoric.9052

Phoric.9052

agreed that server xfers are a problem and free transfers should be closed but that still doesn’t explain the fact that servers are not changing ranks even with “fair weather” transfers. Winning servers seem to get the bulk of these xfers and they still struggle to gain rank. I am simply trying to find a solution that would be easily implemented that would lessen the current tier stagnation.

The problem of the Glicko 2 rating system

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Posted by: Phoric.9052

Phoric.9052

Maybe this has been discussed previously but the current stagnation of several tiers in NA got me looking into the rating system ANet uses. It seems that many servers are “stuck” in tiers they really should not be in. I am on SoR and we have been fighting BG since Nov 17th and have lost each match yet they have not gained enough rating in this time to move to T1 even though they clearly are not really challenged in T2. Also during this time we (SoR and BG and SoS a bit too) wiped the floor with IoJ and they remained in T2 for far too long. They have since moved to T3 and seem very competitive in that tier.

The thread title is a bit misleading as I do not think that the Glicko 2 rating system is really to blame for these stagnant matches. I believe it is the score differential equations ANet uses to input into the Glicko system.
(See: http://www.guildwars2guru.com/arenanet-tracker/topic/244038-the-math-behind-wvw-ratings/)

They utilize an equation (wAGlickoScore = (sin((wAPercent – 0.5) * Pi) + 1) * 0.5)
that essentially decreases the effective rating changes for very large blow outs (never mind that this equation will never give a 0 to 1 result that is required for Glicko, but I digress), thereby keeping servers in a tier longer than their performance would dictate. I believe that this should be the opposite perhaps the following equation graph

The largest realistic relative score difference are going to be in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 for blow-outs between the bottom and top server. This is really the region of interest in any Glicko input function. The graph that I linked will have a slight non-linear increase in rating for these blowouts for the top server. This would allow for rivalries to form but might cut down on the stagnation we are seeing.

These are just the musings of a scientist on vacation so any feedback or input is appreciated

TLDR: blame anet and their modification of the Glicko not Glicko for current rating stagnation

10/19: Fort Aspenwood, Tarnished Coast, Dragonbrand

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Posted by: Phoric.9052

Phoric.9052

so how are the ques?

My Friday Night date with the Queue

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Posted by: Phoric.9052

Phoric.9052

agree the que is frankly game breaking. Simple as that. I was in the que for 2 hours b4 giving up it got too late after working 10 hours all I wanted to do was wvw in the new match up but then the que squashed those hopes. I understand the need for ques but if a large proportion of the player base that wants to wvw cant its a problem and the game will suffer in the long (or short ) run. I love wvw but I HATE farming Orr or jumping in circles in LA.

10/19 Sanctum of Rall vs Crystal Desert vs Sea of Sorrows

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Posted by: Phoric.9052

Phoric.9052

the que is ridiculous i spent 2 hours in it and gave up. Seems success has its drawbacks for SoR. I will wait out the current match and see if the flavor of the week guilds xfer out and the ques calm down. I f not I will xfer to a scrub server were at least the que is not all night.