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are globs of ecto going to tank?

in Black Lion Trading Co

Posted by: Sirsri.1643

Sirsri.1643

PS. Your math is incorrect, salvages are independent statistical events.

He didn’t actually say what he was salvaging with black lion kits.

If he’s salvaging rares a black lion kit the rate is supposed to be 1.5/rare on average isn’t it?

Independent events doesn’t mean you can’t calculate the probability of only getting one in 25. E.g. with coin flips the probability of only getting 1 ‘heads’ or 1 tails is 7.5×10^-7. So his math is actually too generous as the the probability if his odds of an ecto per are >0.5. And he’s too generous by at least an order of magnitude.

For a mystic kit with a rare the probability of only getting one ecto (~90% chance?) on 25 trials is 2.25*10^-23.

Short summary: it sounds like he’s not telling the truth, or he’s used BLK on greens or something equally bizarre (or there is something seriously seriously broken).