Showing Posts For Taisaku.3492:
It’s one of those things like using keep depot supply for trebuchets then.
Exactly
The sample size is far too small for a 1/10 chance to be determined in 15 openings. As many have said in the thread before, some people get really lucky, other are completely unlucky.
At 15 openings, the probability that a chest with 1/10 chance will drop an item is 20%. At 20, it’s 12%. At 30, it’s less than 5%. This is why I’m mystified when people say they’ve opened chests in the hundreds. After a certain amount, you need to stop what you’re doing and re-evaluate your assumptions.
Honestly, I don’t believe the people who’ve said they’ve spend upwards to $100 USD. However, it’s pretty easy to imagine someone paying for say 3200 gems ($40 USD) in the hopes of getting some skins for themselves (because only one character can use a skin at a time) and maybe selling a few others. The problem with this is, they more than likely purchased all their keys at the same time. That leaves them two options. Stockpile the keys and hope that drop rates are later revised, or just keep opening. While it’s not the most intelligent way to go about something this unknown. It’s very likely exactly what happened.
Please cite in the original patch notes containing the chests (Black lion, not Mad King) where they say the skins are “RARE”.
Thank you
Edit: Let me save you some time:
COMMERCE
Black Lion Chest Changes
Halloween items have been added to Black Lion Chests for a limited time only!
There is now a chance to get new Halloween-themed weapon skins by opening Black Lion Chests. All weapon skins are tradable.
Chain Sword Skin
Ghastly Grinning Shield Skin
Greatsaw Greatsword Skin
Grinning Gourd Rifle Skin
Scythe Staff Skin
Severed Dagger Skin
There is now a chance to get new Halloween-themed shoulder armor skins by opening Black Lion Chests. All shoulder armor skins are tradable.
Deathly Shoulderpads Skin
Deathly Avian Shoulderpads Skin
Deathly Bull Shoulderpads Skin
All Black Lion Chests have a chance to give these items, but only until the end of the Halloween events.
Get Black Lion Keys from the Consumable section of the Gem Store to open your Black Lion Chests.
The sample size is far too small for a 1/10 chance to be determined in 15 openings. As many have said in the thread before, some people get really lucky, other are completely unlucky.
Alright. For all those bringing up gambling, let’s get one point clear. (and no, I didn’t spend real money on gems, I stock piled when they where cheap and had 3000 saved up before this event)
No one, not me, not anyone who actually tried to go for the items (if you didn’t try to go for the items, guess what? you don’t qualify in that statement) believed that they were rare beyond belief, maybe a 10% chance for a skin. A reasonable investment of give or take 900 gems (roughly $10).
These items are not legendaries, or pre-cursors. They are fun holiday skins. They’re not something you bring to slay Zhaitan or use in amazing screenshots of you downing the next big baddies.
That being said, lotteries and a lot of other gaming institutions are mandated by law to display the statistics of winning. There is a full disclosure system when trying to win that million dollar prize. This serves a dual purpose. One, the consumer knows that he/she will most likely not win. Two, the organization can say it acted in good faith offering it’s gamble.
17 Mad King chests, one shoulder drop. SAVE your boosters. The trash you get from the mad king chests aren’t worth it. The chance is just as low as before, don’t waste your time.
Anet, you had a chance to show how you were going to handle this, you did not do it very well.