Guild Wars 2

I’d like to give an example of what happens if a group of players try to manipulate the market.

Here’s an extreme situation. Suppose a group of wealthy players buys every ecto on the market and posts each one for 5 gold. A this point they can only continue to buy ecto’s only until they run out of money. At this point the group cannot purchase any more ecto’s on the market because they have run out of money. Nor do they have a monopoly on ecto’s and ecto’s can come from any player in the game. At this point you have thousands of ecto’s at a ridiculously high prices, so the quantity demanded will drop significantly. However, the quantity supplied will not have changed. The quantity supplied for ecto’s is high so prices will drop rapidly until the market balances and ecto’s will once again be at a price the market is willing to pay. So what happens to those manipulators? Well they now have thousands of ecto’s on the market that will never sell and the have pretty much lost all their money.

This is an extreme and simplified example, but I think it illustrates my point.

Also, the recent spike in ecto prices is not due to any manipulation, it was due to a change in quantity supplied. Earlier this month a large number of illegal suppliers (i.e. bots) were wiped from the game. Prices were artificially high due to these illegal suppliers, and once they were eliminated, ecto prices adjusted to their true market value.

Mortifer.2946:

Devs, you can use your arguments, I am not saying they are not true. But there is one problem – no normal players has enough money to buy those ectos anymore. I would never spend 40s for 1 ecto when it takes me and hour to earn that sum (As I said, I am just average player, not some farmer with 3G per hour). These prices supports only no-lifers spending their whole day farming enough gold and then they use their wealth to “manipulate” the market. .

You consider yourself and “average” player, and therefore assume that all “average” players are like you. That is a logical fallacy. Also, it is not difficult to earn a sum greater than 40s per hour. Running a fractal, which takes about an hour, will earn you more than 40s.

The rest of this argument is pure conjecture. You assume that the market only supports “no-lifers spending the whole day farming”. If this were so, it would mean that a sizable portion of player base are"no-lifers". The entire population of the game is serviced by a single market, and a very simplistic market at that. It is not possible for a minority of high wealth individuals to manipulate it in a way that would have a significant impact.

Gisei.5749:

black scholes.3795:

I read his posts on this forum. It doesn’t sound like he inferred that at all.

John Smith.4610:

Remember that Sell orders != supply and buy order != demand

“!=” means “not equal to”

Okay, I see what you’re saying. I’ve never seen != as a term for not equal. Unfortunately the forum cannot incorporate he symbol for not-equal. Hmm. I can only guess what he might be saying. I’ve had a bit to drink tonight, but I’m going to take a shot at what he means. The bid and ask price doesn’t show an accurate picture of supply and demand. It does not show us how many people are buying at the ask price, and it does not show how many people are selling at the bid price. It only shows who’s bidding and who’s asking. Looking at the picture of the two does not give us a clear picture of supply and demand. If we had the internal market data of how many people are buying at the asking price and how many people are selling at the bid price, plus the data on who’s posting ask and who’s posting bids, then we would have a clear picture of market value. That data, for now, is internal so we don’t have the whole picture. If a website comes out, if it’s allowed, that shows the second by second volume of bids, those selling at bid price, asks, and those buying at ask price, then the public would have a clear picture of supply and demand.

This is the best I could surmise at this late an hour and in my current state of mind.

wildcode.5403:

black scholes.3795:

I had to read your statement 3 times to makes sure I was reading it correctly. You were basically re-stating what John said. Sell orders are those that are selling items, they post the items for sell and pay the 5% listing fee. They = supply. Buy orders are those that bid on items on a price they set. They pay no fee. They = demand.

But John basically said sell orders are not supply, and buy orders are not demand.

I read his posts on this forum. It doesn’t sound like he inferred that at all.

wildcode.5403:

John Smith.4610:

Remember that Sell orders != supply and buy order != demand

As a market noob, please explain why this statement is true … I would of thought sell orders = items available on the market, therefore = supply and buy orders = items people want to buy, therefore = demand …

I had to read your statement 3 times to makes sure I was reading it correctly. You were basically re-stating what John said. Sell orders are those that are selling items, they post the items for sell and pay the 5% listing fee. They = supply. Buy orders are those that bid on items on a price they set. They pay no fee. They = demand.

I know I’m a little late to this but here’s my take.

First, the resent spike in tier 5, tier 6 and ecto prices is not due to manipulation, it is due to a massive bot ban. These illegal suppliers were removed from the game. When supply drops, and demand remains the same and prices go up. This is basic economics.

Second, this market it too large to be manipulated by a small hand full of players. The wealth and time necessary to manipulate a 2MM player market it just not feasible.

Third, prices are driven by demand. If the market, which just happens to be the entire collection of every single player in the game, thought prices were currently too high, they would go down because no one would be buying items at their current prices. Even legendary weapons and precursors are not over priced. If they were the demand would drop until price matched demand.

Forth, and I think this is John’s favorite comment, the prices of luxury goods do not determine inflation. In the U.S. the CPI determines inflation, and this is taken from a basket of goods and services consumed by urban consumers. Now I don’t know exactly what is used to determine inflation, but lets assume it is every single good on the market. If this is true then luxury goods make a very small impact on overall inflation. So it is absolutely fallacious to look at them to judge the overall level of inflation on the market. Luxury goods, however, bring the most attention because people want them and can’t have them.

Finally, just because there are a number of intelligent people out there who know how to forecast trends, speculate, or know where the most profitable flips are, does not make them “market manipulators”. Remember, trends and profitable flips change all the time, and speculation doesn’t always work out. People who play these areas do not do so without risk. There is always a strong possibility that the trend has changed or they were wrong in speculation, if this is so they will lose a lot of money. Good traders know how to estimate which trends are just fads and which ones have a longer life span. So, no they are not manipulating the market, they are just good at what they do.

Economics is one of the greatest social sciences because it really shows how the world works.

And remember, entitlement attitudes lead to socialism, and socialism leads to Greece.

There was recently a massive wave of bot bans. This naturally stunts the supply of goods from bot farmers. The recent spike is due the market adjusted to its real rate (i.e. rate w/o botters).

It really doesn’t have anything do to real players leaving the game, only bot characters.

Everything in nature, including human nature, takes the path of least resistance. Don’t fight it, embrace it.

The constant shouting of “For great justice” I hear in every group event gets pretty old. I keep expecting to hear “All your base are belong to us” as a follow up.

Both “Gender Bender” and “Bender the Offender” are stage names used by Bender in the episode “Ranging Bender” on Futurama. They might be considered copyright.

I don’t know why its so hard for some people to understand that some folks just don’t like to be social. I’m one of them. Conversations in MMO’s, like many in real life, revolve around mindless banter regarding uninteresting subjects, so I tend to avoid them. I might chime in every now and then if the subject matter is remotely interesting, but most of the time it isn’t. Some people, like myself, like the freedom being alone gives you and would rather not worry about the pressures inherent in social situations. We aren’t anti-social we’re just a-social. Ironically, in their zeal to get other to be more social, some players come off as anti-social rather than social.

The BLTC has basically set up a monopoly that prevents any other trading company from entering the market. It appears that any anti-trust laws have either been abolished or prevented from being implemented in the first place. As a matter of fact BLTC is the only taxing authority in Tyria. This has further confirmed my suspicions that local governing authorities have no real power and Tyria is now run by a single multinational corporation.

I’m trying to figure ways not to be bored in WvW. Thus far its been; shoot bow; watch pet die; realize that 1200 isn’t nearly enough range; step closer; shoot bow again. So far not much fun. So what am I doing wrong?