Guild Wars 2

tmakinen.1048:

After thinking about it for a while a simple solution would be to change the system as following:

Instead of the current recipe

4 x item -> 1 x item

with a probability of p for the resulting item being a precursor, make it as

4 x item -> precursor_shard (probability q) OR 1 x (non-precursor) item (probability 1 – q)

and make precursors available through the recipe

m x precursor_shard + fancy_stuff -> precursor (guaranteed)

By setting q / m = p the expectation value of a precursor stays the same as before. However, instead of an exponential distribution, the system now follows a binomial distribution, with a significantly smaller variance.

In simpler terms, it would be just like the system used for crafting mystic clovers. Can you imagine what it would be like if the only mystic clover recipe had a 1/250 chance of producing 77 clovers in one go, and 249/250 chance of producing random junk?

The suggested solution gives the system a coarse memory through the accumulation of shards, and cuts out worst excesses in both directions. In that system it’s still in average just as hard to get a precursor as before, but now that hardness is reasonably fair.

+1

Once again, math wins. You would think Anet has people who have already considered this though…