Guild Wars 2

Just curious as to what the rate for scraps is, as I just opened 30 chests and received 1 scrap (and nothing else worth anything, mind you)

I heard it was like a 33% chance from some guildies, looks more like a 3% chance for me…. yay I look forward to opening another 290 chests to get enough for 1 ticket.

Did they break the ratios or am I just having stupid rng?

20% chance. Why would you open chests for tickets? That’s a waste of money.

You can only be given the average rate over time, which is 1 scrap every 5 chests (20% chance), so 1 scrap in 30 chests is really bad luck.

Astral Projections.7320:

You can only be given the average rate over time, which is 1 scrap every 5 chests (20% chance), so 1 scrap in 30 chests is really bad luck.

It’s about a 1% chance to get 1 (or fewer) scraps out of 30 BL chests — bad luck, but one in a hundred people opening 30 chests is going to see the same.

The “expected” number of scraps from 30 chests is 6 (30 * 20%), but the actual probability of getting exactly that number is only about 18%. About 2/5 of people will get less and 2/5 will be luckier than “expected.”

As suggested by others, your best bet if you want a specific weapon skin is to buy it directly, via gold. Even if you’re buying gems with cash, convert the gems and use the resulting gold. Unless you have extremely good luck, that’s always going to be cheaper.

The only reason (in my opinion) for opening BL Chests is for the entertainment value of playing the GW2 lotto. I expect nothing and I am therefore extremely pleased when I end up with something of value to me.

Ah, I was just farming keys because I was pretty bored, not really trying to get anything in particular, but receiving 1 scrap out of 30 chests just didn’t seem right to me ^^

For the first time in a long while I got a key from a random critter. I got a ticket from the chest that I got in the same play session.

Random is random.

Update: another 10 chests opened, I received 1 scrap (and nothing worth anything) making it 2 scraps to 40 chests~ my ratio has slightly improved!

Update 2: another 10 chests, received 3 scraps, making it 5 for 50, or 10% chance.

Random number generator it is. The ratio I was seeing in the past though was about 1 scrap in every 6 or so.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

As suggested by others, your best bet if you want a specific weapon skin is to buy it directly, via gold. Even if you’re buying gems with cash, convert the gems and use the resulting gold. Unless you have extremely good luck, that’s always going to be cheaper.

If everyone did that there would be no weapons to buy.

Getting the tickets/scraps is a crapshoot lottery, but there needs to be some people playing the lottery for there to be weapons to purchase.

khani.4786:

If everyone did that there would be no weapons to buy.

Getting the tickets/scraps is a crapshoot lottery, but there needs to be some people playing the lottery for there to be weapons to purchase.

Playing the lotto with the intention to get something is called “losing”.

There will always be people who play for the excitement of the gamble, and those people will continue to provide the tickets needed to supply the market with skins to buy. Smart people don’t buy keys if they want a skin, they simply buy the skin. Farming keys is also an option if you have the stomach for that kind of monotony.

Natsu Dragneel.1625:

Update: another 10 chests opened, I received 1 scrap (and nothing worth anything) making it 2 scraps to 40 chests~ my ratio has slightly improved!

Update 2: another 10 chests, received 3 scraps, making it 5 for 50, or 10% chance.

Yah it averages out to ~20% chance, but it’s over time.

Right now I’m averaging 10% chance, same as you. The last 40 key runs have gotten me 4 scraps. A friend I know who does them occasionally got 4 scraps with 2 keys then another scrap with 2 more keys.

But even though the last 40 runs are at 10% chance, overall I’m at ~20% because the last set of runs I did for a set of 10 scraps was much better than average. So, over time.

kokiman.2364:

20% chance. Why would you open chests for tickets? That’s a waste of money.

What exactly do you think the majority of them are opened for? I’m not saying it’s a smart move, but it IS the “get rich quick”, reasoning…..

Last 20 chests gave me 8 scraps….near average.

Yeah, over all now I have opened 68 chests, received 13 scraps and 1 ticket (its averaging out about 20%, rng really is just rng, I was having a pretty bad start). I run the keys for fun not really trying to get anything in particular out of them, but I measure in scraps because other then tickets and a very small chance at a contract, the scraps are what makes up the bulk of the money you make in the end, excluding untradeable’s which, while some might be nice, I don’t place much value on.

Trying to get into the key running thing. Opened 11 chests but got 0 scrap 0 ticket. I’m questioning myself whether I should continue the farm.

I also had a terrible start (30 chests for 1 scrap) but it has seemed to even out to around the 20% its supposed to be, RNG is RNG, keep at it if you enjoy it, personally, I like trying to get better times (my best is about 15 minutes 40 seconds solo)

I don’t think its 20%…

Nike.2631:

I don’t think its 20%…

It’s close. It’s ~20%. Close enough that I round it to 20%.

Recorded values that I found was 40 scraps in 192 chests. Which came to 20.83%. http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate
This is very close to the average I’ve gotten in my runs.

OK, guys, you do really 70 monotonous key runs, wich takes about 17-20 hours? Bless the time, when I was young and could waste time like this…

I opened 7 chests today and got 2 scraps and 1 full ticket. Guess my luck finally paid off after like 2 years of crappy luck.

ProtoGunner.4953:

OK, guys, you do really 70 monotonous key runs, wich takes about 17-20 hours? Bless the time, when I was young and could waste time like this…

Outside of the extremely slim chance to get a contract, this seems like it would a horribly inefficient way to make some gold.

Is it simply for the thrill of the box opening?

EgonVenkman.1907:

ProtoGunner.4953:

OK, guys, you do really 70 monotonous key runs, wich takes about 17-20 hours? Bless the time, when I was young and could waste time like this…

Outside of the extremely slim chance to get a contract, this seems like it would a horribly inefficient way to make some gold.

Is it simply for the thrill of the box opening?

For me, it’s more about the annoyance of having a stack of BL chests in my bank and being unwilling to pay RL money to gamble with them. I have no plans to continue doing this regularly as soon as my supply of BL Chests runs out (I’m slowly chipping away at it….I have 80 left) but I do plan to keep the equipment and potentially an open character slot so I can do a few runs as I get BL chests via playing.

I get that it’s likely a waste of time (in terms of hitting the jackpot!), but it is mildly entertaining to try and tune your running to lower your time a small bit. Also, the Booster consolidation items they recently added WILL free up some of my storage space.

Also, the actual key run itself is not monotonous…..but doing it over and over can be (that’s why I rarely do back to back runs….that can certainly burn you out).